Why are you so sure we aren't a playoff team?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

And what data would you suggest to prove that one roster is better than another?

. Win after win after win

[oldmanfan]

And what data would you suggest to prove that one roster is better than another?

I went through my opinion position by position earlier in this thread. The issue for our friend is he seems to confuse his opinion with fact.

 

As a researcher with over 40 years experience, I would say that the only way you could start to prove or disprove the value of one roster over another is to examine the records at the end of each year. However, variables such as injuries, quality of opponent, and others limit that approach.

 

My opinion is the rosters aren't much different from one position to the next and I try to support it with data. For example, the argument that our DBs are worse; I would suggest Hyde and Poyer are younger and understand this scheme better than last year. I think comparing WR corps a healthy Sammy would be better. And so on. Some disagree with pithy sayings vs. compare specifics. Be more than willing to have fruitful discussion.

[transplantbillsfan]

Win Sunday and we'll be in sole possession of 1st place in the division baby!!!

[transplantbillsfan]

I'm starting to have a funny feeling this team is going to be the surprise playoff team of 2017... in truth, I'm a little amazed people aren't seeing this massive culture change that's happening in Buffalo.

 

Extreme culture changes are huge.

[cba fan]

 

I mean I could take your word for it, except for the fact that the 2008 Atlanta Falcons, who had a mega roster turnover (I didn't do the math, but looks about equal to what we have) and a new HC, went to the playoffs in the first year of this mega roster turnover.

 

So, forgive me for not believing you spent much time researching this when we have a pretty obvious and prominent example within the last decade.

I said in my post some new HC's took teams to playoffs first year. Falcons Smith did but not with Bills turnover.

 

Falcons had about 33 player changes in 2008. Also had new GM that year.

 

Try again. Does not matter what or if you believe me. It is fact. Playoffs and success in this first year is very low probability.

Edited September 8, 2017 by cba fan

[transplantbillsfan]

I said in my post some new HC's took teams to playoffs first year. Falcons Smith did but not with Bills turnover.

 

Falcons had about 33 player changes in 2008. Also had new GM that year.

 

Try again. Does not matter what or if you believe me. It is fact. Playoffs and success in this first year is very low probability.

Whatever you say, boss.

 

Time for some shock and awe, then

[transplantbillsfan]

I said in my post some new HC's took teams to playoffs first year. Falcons Smith did but not with Bills turnover.

 

Falcons had about 33 player changes in 2008. Also had new GM that year.

 

Try again. Does not matter what or if you believe me. It is fact. Playoffs and success in this first year is very low probability.

Oh yeah, and the 2007 Dolphins were 1-15. 50% roster turnover. New coach & GM. 11-5 playoffs.

 

That's about what we have. I know you like to include the practice squad numbers, but virtually every team gets new practice squad players every single year. I counted 30 new players. You say you counted 31? OK, that's 3 or 4 players over the 50% range. And the majority of our starters on both sides of the ball (8 for offense and 6 for defense) are back.

[cba fan]

Oh yeah, and the 2007 Dolphins were 1-15. 50% roster turnover. New coach & GM. 11-5 playoffs.

 

That's about what we have. I know you like to include the practice squad numbers, but virtually every team gets new practice squad players every single year. I counted 30 new players. You say you counted 31? OK, that's 3 or 4 players over the 50% range. And the majority of our starters on both sides of the ball (8 for offense and 6 for defense) are back.

OK you win.

 

I hope 2017 Bills find the lottery like Fish and Falcons did and win and make playoffs. I really do. Just not realistic.

 

I am on your side though. I desperately want it to happen. Cheers.

[transplantbillsfan]

OK you win.

 

I hope 2017 Bills find the lottery like Fish and Falcons did and win and make playoffs. I really do. Just not realistic.

 

I am on your side though. I desperately want it to happen. Cheers.

Amen Brotha!

[LTarmy]

Tougher schedule, offense that doesn't fit the players we have, weak receivers with no one to draw safeties away from playing near the line of scrimmage, and a ton of roster turnover as well as new coaches and scheme on defense with a suspect secondary/linebacking corps.

 

I have this team between 5-7 wins.

Sadly, this is likely true.

 

If this team was returning this exact same roster as last year, maybe they win 7-9 games, but they have a huge turnover and I don't think Tyrod fits this offense at all.

[MarlinTheMagician]

1.VS. Jets - Win

At Panthers - Loss

Vs. Denver - Win (2)

At Falcons - Loss

At Bengals - Win (3)

vs. Bucs - Win (4)

From there, six more wins and we make playoffs. They will be Fish 2x (6 wins), Saints at home (7), Dolts (8), Jets again (9) plus one of either split the Pats or take the Chargers on the road.

[NewMexBills]

McCoy will get injured it's not a question of if, but a question of when. Our back ups will bring us down, way down

[MarlinTheMagician]

I tend to agree with this. But if we are lucky on the health front we could certainly go 10-6. Having said that, I would hate to see our offense if Shady and say Matthews or Jones goes done. Not too threatening with Tolbert and one of our back-up wideouts.

[Domdab99]

I have hope this new team will surprise us all and actually gel and be decent. However, I think there will be quite a few frustrating growing pains. Whether or not TT finally steps up and becomes a franchise QB will entirely be up to how well he can on page with Mathews and Jones. I also think he'll need some like Klay to step up and be a surprise speedster for him.

 

If Dennison can grow and actually play to the strengths of his offense, then the Bills might actually be decent...if instead, he tries and fit a square peg into a round hole, then we're screwed. I'm not interested in making TT a pocket passer. That's not what he is. We should be utilizing a lot of quick, short passes, moving pockets, and miss-direction runs. McCoy, Clay, DiMarco, and Tolbert need to lead.

 

On defense...who the eff knows? We will be reliant on a completely new secondary...and that may be disastrous.

[transplantbillsfan]

So... anyone convinced we got a shot?

[GunnerBill]

So... anyone convinced we got a shot?

We got a shot. Still think it is a real outside shot. 7 to 9 wins.

[mannc]

So... anyone convinced we got a shot?

Of course we do. This is a pretty good team. We need to stay healthy and have a few things break our way,like all playoff teams. There was never any reason to think this team would not be at least as good as last year's 7-8 team, or better when the Ryan Brothers are removed from the equation. Coaching was really all that separated the Bills from the Dolphins last year.

[HappyDays]

AFC is wide open. Next week doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. We now have the advantage over Denver and Miami looks like they suck again too. I mean who else are we competing with for that 2nd wildcard spot?

[GunnerBill]

Of course we do. This is a pretty good team. We need to stay healthy and have a few things break our way,like all playoff teams. There was never any reason to think this team would not be at least as good as last year's 7-8 team, or better when the Ryan Brothers are removed from the equation. Coaching was really all that separated the Bills from the Dolphins last year.

I agree with that but we still have a really tough slate of QBs to play. I have said all offseason... we could play better and win fewer games.

 

But today is a day to be really proud. The team played well and looked well prepared and well coached.

AFC is wide open. Next week doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things. We now have the advantage over Denver and Miami looks like they suck again too. I mean who else are we competing with for that 2nd wildcard spot?

So realistically.... I still think Houston makes a run at it.. then it is Denver and after that we are in the mix potentially. Just not sure I see 10 wins on out slate. If we can get in 9-7 having gone 7-5 in the AFC then yes it is believable.

[transplantbillsfan]

We got a shot. Still think it is a real outside shot. 7 to 9 wins.

I think we could still win more.

Edited September 24, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[GunnerBill]

I think we could still win more.

Hmmm. I hope you are right. I think playing the first of the top QBs on our schedule next week will give me a better feel.

 

We don't have to beat Ryan and the Falcons but we have to play them tough for me to believe that we can upset a Carr or a Brees or a Brady down the road. If we lose to Ryan and those 3 we would have no margin for error to get to 10.

[Mark80]

I agree with that but we still have a really tough slate of QBs to play. I have said all offseason... we could play better and win fewer games.

 

But today is a day to be really proud. The team played well and looked well prepared and well coached.

 

So realistically.... I still think Houston makes a run at it.. then it is Denver and after that we are in the mix potentially. Just not sure I see 10 wins on out slate. If we can get in 9-7 having gone 7-5 in the AFC then yes it is believable.

 

While I love Watson and think he is going to be a very good QB, I don't expect it to be this year. Houston's offense is very vulnerable and they are 1 or 2 injuries away from having an ordinary defense.

 

We should at least be excited about what we have seen so far. This team may just claw their way into the hunt in December. And NE defense? Don't tell me we have no chance of beating them once.

[Boatdrinks]

Of course we do. This is a pretty good team. We need to stay healthy and have a few things break our way,like all playoff teams. There was never any reason to think this team would not be at least as good as last year's 7-8 team, or better when the Ryan Brothers are removed from the equation. Coaching was really all that separated the Bills from the Dolphins last year.

You can't assume everything from the previous season will simply carry over. Especially with new coaches, players, systems etc. those are plenty of reasons to think they may not be as good. We still don't know. They didn't lose their first two this year, so that's a big help. Still issues to clear up, they are hardly out of the woods yet. This offense still isn't as good as last years at this point. The D is much improved. They aren't beating themselves as much and it shows. They have an outside shot because they still play in the East and if Brady is healthy the Pats win it. That's a big disadvantage from other teams.

[mannc]

Hmmm. I hope you are right. I think playing the first of the top QBs on our schedule next week will give me a better feel.

 

We don't have to beat Ryan and the Falcons but we have to play them tough for me to believe that we can upset a Carr or a Brees or a Brady down the road. If we lose to Ryan and those 3 we would have no margin for error to get to 10.

I think we have a. chance next week, but only if Dennison doesn't try to win by running on first down and controlling the clock. Tyrod can do some good thing when we open up the offense and that's what we'll have to do.

[Boatdrinks]

While I love Watson and think he is going to be a very good QB, I don't expect it to be this year. Houston's offense is very vulnerable and they are 1 or 2 injuries away from having an ordinary defense.

 

We should at least be excited about what we have seen so far. This team may just claw their way into the hunt in December. And NE defense? Don't tell me we have no chance of beating them once.

You may beat NE defense. But from what I've seen they won't beat Brady.

[GunnerBill]

I think we have a. chance next week, but only if Dennison doesn't try to win by running on first down and controlling the clock. Tyrod can do some good thing when we open up the offense and that's what we'll have to do.

Put it this way... if we beat or go very close to beating Atlanta next week, whether by keeping up with them on offense or stopping them on defense, then I will be fully bought into our playoff chase. As it is I just don't think this team is ready to win 10 games.

[mannc]

Put it this way... if we beat or go very close to beating Atlanta next week, whether by keeping up with them on offense or stopping them on defense, then I will be fully bought into our playoff chase. As it is I just don't think this team is ready to win 10 games.

If the 2016 Dolphins can make the playoffs, then the 2017 Bills certainly can.

[transplantbillsfan]

Hmmm. I hope you are right. I think playing the first of the top QBs on our schedule next week will give me a better feel.

 

We don't have to beat Ryan and the Falcons but we have to play them tough for me to believe that we can upset a Carr or a Brees or a Brady down the road. If we lose to Ryan and those 3 we would have no margin for error to get to 10.

Every time we win is it just going to be "next week is going to give me a better feel" for some of you?

 

That's the sense I get.

 

And of course, we aren't in the playoffs until we're in the playoffs. But can we just pretty definitively say this team is better than the vast majority expected?

[GunnerBill]

If the 2016 Dolphins can make the playoffs, then the 2017 Bills certainly can.

They basically won every winnable game. We have dropped one in Carolina we now have no margin for error.

[BillsfanAZ]

The problem I see is the Bills have a conservative offense. It can be successful with a good defense and minimal mistakes. We saw this in the Bills running the ball two straight drives to try for field goals instead of touchdowns only coming away with one field goal. It was enough to win but if the defense didnt stop the Broncos it could have gone the other way. I think you try for touchdowns and settle for field goals. Most Bills games will be close games and they dont have the offensive horsepower to put up a lot of points if the defense cant limit high scoring offenses like Falcons, Saints, and Pats

[transplantbillsfan]

They basically won every winnable game. We have dropped one in Carolina we now have no margin for error.

Umm, why?

 

It's the NFL. Every game is winnable. Just look at today's results.

[GunnerBill]

Every time we win is it just going to be "next week is going to give me a better feel" for some of you?

 

That's the sense I get.

 

And of course, we aren't in the playoffs until we're in the playoffs. But can we just pretty definitively say this team is better than the vast majority expected?

Well, no. I predicted us to be 3-0 preseason. So whilst I am encouraged today we are a game behind where I think we needed to be... I only got us to 8-8 even after a 3-0 start. The QBs on the schedule are a big challenge. We have played 2 of the worst we will play and 1 middling one who is playing terribly. The first time we face a legitimate contender next week is an important measuring stick.

[MarlinTheMagician]

We are a playoff capable team right now. Whether we make it or not depends on injuries and how well the team continues to come together. Many of these young men have barely played together. Give them a chance, they have earned it.

[TPS]

Well, no. I predicted us to be 3-0 preseason. So whilst I am encouraged today we are a game behind where I think we needed to be... I only got us to 8-8 even after a 3-0 start. The QBs on the schedule are a big challenge. We have played 2 of the worst we will play and 1 middling one who is playing terribly. The first time we face a legitimate contender next week is an important measuring stick.

i expected 2-2 after next week. I'm getting more confident about the home games now. For example, I pegged the Raiders as a loss, but not the way they look tonight.

[MarlinTheMagician]

If we can split Altanta and Raiders we are in fine shape, IMHO. Pats are shaky right now, but hooded one will probably right the ship somehow. That D looked bad against Texans though. And bad against Chefs. Did not see any of their Ain'ts game. And Miami - I have no respect for them. We should have beat them twice last year, and we were a joke in many ways. Lose to the Jets by 20? I know it wasn't actually 20, but they scored in garbage time. We COULD (not saying will) win the division.

[Big Turk]

If we can split Altanta and Raiders we are in fine shape, IMHO. Pats are shaky right now, but hooded one will probably right the ship somehow. That D looked bad against Texans though. And bad against Chefs. Did not see any of their Ain'ts game. And Miami - I have no respect for them. We should have beat them twice last year, and we were a joke in many ways. Lose to the Jets by 20? I know it wasn't actually 20, but they scored in garbage time. We COULD (not saying will) win the division.

 

Their D is pretty rough...no pass rush, front 7 is weakest its been in a while...they are going to have to outscore teams this year, but they are well equipped to do so...

Edited September 25, 2017 by matter2003

[transplantbillsfan]

So... who still thinks this team is tanking and devoid of talent?

[transplantbillsfan]

Micah Hyde: "We were only supposed to win four games all season, right? As I can recall ... someone had us going 4-12. Were 4-2 right now."

 

All aboard!!!

[transplantbillsfan]

Choo choo!!!!!

 

Let's keep this playoff train rolling baby!!!!

[John from Riverside]

Choo choo!!!!!

 

Let's keep this playoff train rolling baby!!!!

LOL