Ball velocity numbers from Combine are in

[jeffismagic]

The more i read about this nonsense the more i begin to believe that the combine is nothing more than a distraction/circus to hide all of the illegal tampering/backhanded deals that GMs do during the dog and pony show.

 

Says the guy with the TT avatar.

[bobobonators]

 

Says the guy with the TT avatar.

What does that have to do with anything pertaining to Watson and his velocity?

[Marty McFly]

Watson will never make it in the NFL

 

Damn brehhhh!! i understand why you said that but take it easy! remember there is a person inside that helmet!

[BarleyNY]

Who knows what any of this means? I love to know what Tom Brady or Joe Montana velocity was when they started in the NFL? All I know is Tyrod Taylor throws an excellent deep ball, considering the wind in Buffalo. Mahomes maybe long gone by 44?

Brady fell so far in the draft in part due to a perceived weak arm. Velocity wasn't measured at the time. He made corrections that fixed the problem. He definitely does not have a weak arm now. I'm not sure what was done, the coaches must've fixed his mechanics and probably some sort of (ahem) strength training was involved. In his first season it was noted how much his functional arm strength improved so quickly.

Edited March 11, 2017 by BarleyNY

[jeffismagic]

Brady fell so far in the draft in part due to a perceived weak arm. Velocity wasn't measured at the time. He made corrections that fixed the problem. He definitely does not have a weak arm. I'm not sure what was done, the coaches must've fixed his mechanics and probably some sort of strength training was involved. In his first season it was noted how much his functional arm strength improved so quickly.

Human Growth Hormone.

[BarleyNY]

Human Growth Hormone.

Likely something like that was involved. It happened so quickly.

[jeffismagic]

Likely something like that was involved. It happened so quickly.

Who really knows? But my cousin went to Michigan and watched every Tom Brady college game and said he was not the same player at all. Very strange how a guy gets an arm AFTER getting drafted. Doesn't happen anywhere else.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

16 for '16: College football QBs with the strongest arms

 

 

 

 

 

1. Chad Kelly, Ole Miss

 

There’s recent video proof of Kelly's arm strength, not that we needed more convincing about his ability in that area. The Rebels quarterback last week posted a clip to Instagram of him chucking a ball 76 yards down the field after a 5-yard running start. The nephew of Pro Football Hall of Famer Jim Kelly made a lot of challenging throws outside the numbers in his first season as Ole Miss' starter. He had a completion percentage of 64.9 on such throws and had 35 20-yard completions outside the numbers in 2015, leading all Power Five QBs in both categories.

 

 

http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap3000000665982

Edited March 11, 2017 by Buffalo Barbarian

[BarleyNY]

Who really knows? But my cousin went to Michigan and watched every Tom Brady college game and said he was not the same player at all. Very strange how a guy gets an arm AFTER getting drafted. Doesn't happen anywhere else.

Kinda like that legendary 1974 Steelers draft class. 5 HOF players. Oh, and by the way, they were all juicing. Steroids weren't banned yet and the Steelers really pioneered their use. Some teams and coaches are very adept at determining what players can make a big jump with a little help from the chemists.

[cd1]

Regardless of what it means for success in the NFL, what about success at New Era Field with it's swirling winds?

 

The Bills need QBs that can overcome that WIND. Flutterballs just won't cut it.

Edited March 11, 2017 by cd1

[YoloinOhio]

Watson's number doesn't surprise me. he has enough arm but he doesn't throw a fastball.

[Magox]

He'll make it well before Mahomes does.

 

I don't believe that will be the case.

[mannc]

I'm skeptical of any metric that tells me Colt McCoy has as strong an arm as Cam Newton. Nevertheless, it does seem to have value as a cutoff point. Having a really strong arm doesn't mean you're going to make it in the league, but if you can't fire it at least 54 MPH, there's not much hope. Similar to 40 yard dash times for WRs, it would seem.

Edited March 11, 2017 by mannc

[dave mcbride]

Velocity and arm strength are just one component. But looking back at the last 5 drafts I don't see one success from a QB in the NFL with a velocity under 55 mph.

I don't disagree at all that it's a warning sign. But a lot of velocity comes from mechanics. People blather on and on about Brady juicing, but it's a simple fact that the guy worked like a demon on his mechanics.

I'm skeptical of any metric that tells me Colt McCoy has as strong an arm as Cam Newton. Nevertheless, it does seem to have value as a cutoff point. Having a really strong arm doesn't mean you're going to make it in the league, but if you can't fire it at least 54 MPH, there's not much hope. Similar to 40 yard dash times for WRs, it would seem.

Again, who had velocity training and who didn't? My bet is that McCoy received more than Newton going in, who had a pretty checkered life up until that point. Newton clearly has a stronger arm.

[Chicken Boo]

Does this actually matter or is this just another number that people pretend is more important than it really is?

 

What does the game tape tell us? That's what I care about more than anything.

^this

 

There's far more to the game than "the best arm since Farve".

[Mr. WEO]

Interesting. Tyron threw 50 but I wonder if he somehow throws harder now?

 

Here is a good analysis on QB velocities since '08

http://rotoviz.com/2016/04/does-ball-velocity-tell-us-anything-about-qb-success-rates/?hvid=3XXMPT

 

 

This pretty much seals the uselessness of this metric.

 

MAybe we should go back to "hand size".

[dave mcbride]

This pretty much seals the uselessness of this metric.

 

MAybe we should go back to "hand size".

No the metric is great. The problem is that qbs receive wildly varying training. Measure them 2-3 years into their nfl careers (when they've all received pretty similar training) and then judge. It's a scout's job not just to assess combine velocity, but to project where it might be with the proper training. Velocity in and of itself is hugely important.

 

Plus it's pretty obvious that 55 is good enough -- the equivalent of a 90-91 mph fastball pitcher who succeeds if he "knows how to pitch." Throwing 60 is like one of those 100 mph throwers - if they can't do other things, they end up as mid game relievers. High velocity isn't necessary, but adequate (ie, good) velocity is an absolute requirement. The final chart told me a lot about Connor Cook, who looks like a far worse thrower than i thought he'd be.

Edited March 11, 2017 by dave mcbride

[jeffismagic]

People don't seem to understand this at all. How hard a QB throws is not the only component needed to play QB at the NFL. But throwing the ball under 55 is like a WR running a 4.7. It's a huge red flag and needs to be looked at.

[Mr. WEO]

No the metric is great. The problem is that qbs receive wildly varying training. Measure them 2-3 years into their nfl careers (when they've all received pretty similar training) and then judge. It's a scout's job not just to assess combine velocity, but to project where it might be with the proper training. Velocity in and of itself is hugely important.

 

Look at that list of the top 25%ile in that article. It's a sad list, some several years into their careers. Velocity didn't help these guys.

[mannc]

No the metric is great. The problem is that qbs receive wildly varying training. Measure them 2-3 years into their nfl careers (when they've all received pretty similar training) and then judge. It's a scout's job not just to assess combine velocity, but to project where it might be with the proper training. Velocity in and of itself is hugely important.

I think we agree that it can be a useful metric, but with all due respect, you're just speculating WRT the training these guys might or might not be getting. I would imagine they are all working on their velocity going into the combine, knowing that scouts will be paying attention to it. Edited March 11, 2017 by mannc

[dave mcbride]

I think we agree that it can be a useful metric, but with all due respect, you're just speculating WRT the training these guys might or might not be getting. I would imagine they are all working on their velocity going into the combine, knowing that scouts will be paying attention to it.

Yeah, of course I'm speculating, and I also speculate that some of th "athlete" qbs get less training than the rest. But don't surprised if this reflects reality. Hard to say,of course,

No the metric is great. The problem is that qbs receive wildly varying training. Measure them 2-3 years into their nfl careers (when they've all received pretty similar training) and then judge. It's a scout's job not just to assess combine velocity, but to project where it might be with the proper training. Velocity in and of itself is hugely important.

Plus it's pretty obvious that 55 is good enough -- the equivalent of a 90-91 mph fastball pitcher who succeeds if he "knows how to pitch." Throwing 60 is like one of those 100 mph throwers - if they can't do other things, they end up as mid game relievers. High velocity isn't necessary, but adequate (ie, good) velocity is an absolute requirement. The final chart told me a lot about Connor Cook, who looks like a far worse thrower than i thought he'd be.

Jeff - in case you missed my edit, see above. I agree that low 50s is a problem. I also think that good enough (55) is good enough if other tools are there.

[mannc]

 

Look at that list of the top 25%ile in that article. It's a sad list, some several years into their careers. Velocity didn't help these guys.

You're missing the point. The numbers suggest that being able to throw the ball with a lot of velocity doesn't mean you will succeed in the NFL, but NOT being able to do so means you almost certainly won't. Hence the concern about Watson. Edited March 11, 2017 by mannc

[dave mcbride]

You're missing the point. The numbers suggest that being able to throw the ball with a lot of velocity doesn't mean you will succeed in the NFL, but NOT being able to do so means you almost certainly won't. Hence the concern about Watson.

Yup - agree 100 percent. Still need to dig deeper, though, and figure out if there is room for improvement. That's the scouts' job, of course.

[Reed83HOF]

Greg Gabriel‏ @greggabe 2h2 hours ago

People are trying to make a big deal out of the ball velocity that Watson showed at Indy. Watch the tape. Arm strength is NOT a problem!

[jrober38]

 

Greg Gabriel‏ @greggabe 2h2 hours ago

People are trying to make a big deal out of the ball velocity that Watson showed at Indy. Watch the tape. Arm strength is NOT a problem!

 

 

I agree with this.

 

He can easily make every NFL throw.

[John from Riverside]

Missing the point

 

Anything that could cause him to slip to our 2nd round pick would be a GOOD thing

[jeffismagic]

 

I agree with this.

 

He can easily make every NFL throw.

Making the throw and making it with the same speed as a top NFL QB is the issue.

 

You can draft a baseball pitcher who can "make the throw" to home plate but you might not want to if he throws it at 72 mph.

[jrober38]

Making the throw and making it with the same speed as a top NFL QB is the issue.

 

You can draft a baseball pitcher who can "make the throw" to home plate but you might not want to if he throws it at 72 mph.

 

I don't buy it. I've watched Deshaun Watson play numerous times and never before have I thought "this guy doesn't have an NFL calibre arm." He can zip the ball all over the field with ease.

Edited March 11, 2017 by jrober38

[jeffismagic]

 

I don't buy it. I've watched Deshaun Watson play numerous times and never before have I thought "this guy doesn't have an NFL calibre arm." He can zip the ball all over the field with ease.

Someone told me that Watson throws a flutter ball, not a good spiral a few weeks ago. I thought it odd but seeing the MPH validates that.

[jrober38]

Someone told me that Watson throws a flutter ball, not a good spiral a few weeks ago. I thought it odd but seeing the MPH validates that.

 

Fair enough.

 

I think there are a lot of reasons to not want Watson. Arm strength isn't one of the major ones.

[jeffismagic]

 

Fair enough.

 

I think there are a lot of reasons to not want Watson. Arm strength isn't one of the major ones.

The flutter ball thing was amusing to me but the MPH is a huge red flag. If I wanted to draft him I would look into it to verify the top speed.

 

Just like a WR can be sick and not run well at the combine.

[wppete]

Stay

 

Away

 

FROM

 

Watson!

Yes this. Mahomes in the 2nd or Webb in the 3rd.

[Real McClappy]

http://blogs.ourlads.com/2016/03/02/quarterback-ball-velocity-at-nfl-combine-2008-2015/

Interesting. I never actually seen this before. it does appear 55+ is the ideal number.

[Dr. Who]

I think Watson can play in the NFL. If this drops him to our pick in the second round, I would be very pleased.

[Real McClappy]

Watson will never make it in the NFL

Nor would Flutie right?

 

I think Watson would be well suited for a dome.

 

Not sure if he can throw through the Lake effect though!

 

I would think it be in the best interest of the Bills to hit 55+

Edited March 11, 2017 by Real McCoy

[Last Guy on the Bench]

Yes this. Mahomes in the 2nd or Webb in the 3rd.

I like both those guys. But I think we'll get burned by getting too cute with the round (again).

 

If we want Mahomes, I bet we have to take him in the 1st. And if we want Webb, I bet we have to take him in the 2nd.

[BarleyNY]

This is comparable to measuring a pitchers velocity in the bullpen. Velocity during a game is much more important and only really matters on certain throws. The fact that Flacco was only measured at 55 mph tells me all I need to know about these measurements. Flacco probably throws with most velocity of any QB since Elway and Favre.

The bullpen comparison is terrible. A pitcher isn't graded on his warm ups, he's graded on pitching live or in a game simulation where he would warm up and then pitch as if he was in a real game. His velocity in those two situations should be the same. What's most concerning about a low velocity at the Combine is that there's no reason a QBs mechanics shouldn't be as perfect as that QB is currently capable of. The more common problem is a great velocity at the Combine where there is no pass rush or distraction due to reading a defense/calling audibles/etc., but seeing a worse velocity in game situations due to a player's mechanics breaking down.

[mannc]

The bullpen comparison is terrible. A pitcher isn't graded on his warm ups, he's graded on pitching live or in a game simulation where he would warm up and then pitch as if he was in a real game. His velocity in those two situations should be the same. What's most concerning about a low velocity at the Combine is that there's no reason a QBs mechanics shouldn't be as perfect as that QB is currently capable of. The more common problem is a great velocity at the Combine where there is no pass rush or distraction due to reading a defense/calling audibles/etc., but seeing a worse velocity in game situations due to a player's mechanics breaking down.

Exactly,

[Mr. WEO]

You're missing the point. The numbers suggest that being able to throw the ball with a lot of velocity doesn't mean you will succeed in the NFL, but NOT being able to do so means you almost certainly won't. Hence the concern about Watson.

 

Throwing too hard and not hard enough means your chance at success are low. throwing somewhere in the middle is good. Not a strong indicator therefore.

 

What were Brady and Mannings (either one) speeds?

[jeffismagic]

Benjamin Allbright‏Verified account @AllbrightNFL

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For combine velocity measurement for QBs remember this. Over 55 mph doesnt guarantee success, but under it pretty much guarantees failure