The Trump Economy

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[IDBillzFan]

3 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

As a small business owner, I like this concept, but I don't see it happening.

 

I'm not a big fan of relying on the government in any capacity, and I have made that know for years, but given the panic that has been rippling through the country, it is clear that companies like mine are about to get wrecked in less than two months if all we do is tell everyone to stay home. Our employees are high tech coders fetching six figures each. But it's based on production. If no one is hiring us to produce, we shut down.

 

It's breaking my heart.

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

 

[TPS]

7 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

So, how exactly would people suggest doing things different?  I've seen the suggestion here that the old and vulnerable should quarantine and everyone else go about their lives.  That would ensure a much large number of people infected, and even though the death rate for those under 40 is only 0.2%, that doesn't tell us how many require ICUs or respirators to recover?  Then all of those active people would be endangering all of the healthcare workers on the front lines.  It's not a simple solution.  In times like this the federal government can do what China did--provide the backstop and guarantee all businesses and jobs.  We temporarily provide trillions to ensure liquidity to the financial system, and we can do the same to the real economy over this relatively short period of time.

 

In other news, I stopped buying the dip because I don't know where it will end...

 

[Deranged Rhino]

4 minutes ago, TPS said:

So, how exactly would people suggest doing things different?  I've seen the suggestion here that the old and vulnerable should quarantine and everyone else go about their lives.  That would ensure a much large number of people infected, and even though the death rate for those under 40 is only 0.2%, that doesn't tell us how many require ICUs or respirators to recover?  Then all of those active people would be endangering all of the healthcare workers on the front lines.  It's not a simple solution.  In times like this the federal government can do what China did--provide the backstop and guarantee all businesses and jobs.  We temporarily provide trillions to ensure liquidity to the financial system, and we can do the same to the real economy over this relatively short period of time.

 

In other news, I stopped buying the dip because I don't know where it will end...

 

 

That's the dilemma and I don't know the answer either. There might not be a right answer in the end. Both options do damage, the virus could kill hundreds of thousands or even millions... but a return to a Great Depression will undoubtedly lead to a similar body count. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. 

[TPS]

24 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

That's the dilemma and I don't know the answer either. There might not be a right answer in the end. Both options do damage, the virus could kill hundreds of thousands or even millions... but a return to a Great Depression will undoubtedly lead to a similar body count. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. 

We would not experience a GD that lasted years.  We have the ability to reestablish the economy, just like China has.  In a crisis, everyone is a socialist....

That said, the economy will never be the same after this.  

[TPS]

This guy has been way ahead of the curve on the virus. You guys will like this one, but he's an equal opportunity criticizer...

 

 

[3rdnlng]

25 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

That's the dilemma and I don't know the answer either. There might not be a right answer in the end. Both options do damage, the virus could kill hundreds of thousands or even millions... but a return to a Great Depression will undoubtedly lead to a similar body count. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. 

Actually I think the stay at home efforts at this time are only an effort to flatten the curve while at the same time ramping up our production of masks, gloves, ventilators, etc. I think the plan is for the restrictions to be eased once that flattening occurs. It'll be a tough balancing act. 

4 minutes ago, TPS said:

This guy has been way ahead of the curve on the virus. You guys will like this one, but he's an equal opportunity criticizer...

 

 

Who would you rather have leading the executive branch at this time? Trump? Biden? Sanders?

[Foxx]

1 hour ago, TPS said:

.. In other news, I stopped buying the dip because I don't know where it will end...

 

there has been an incremental shutdown all leading up to what appears to be a full stop this weekend. perhaps this coming Monday will be the (Black) Monday echo i feared this past week. they should just shutter the market if they are going to crash the economy. i mean, seriously, what do they think is going to happen? 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Foxx

[TPS]

46 minutes ago, Foxx said:

there has been an incremental shutdown all leading up to what appears to be a full stop this weekend. perhaps this coming Monday will be the (Black) Monday echo i feared this past week. they should just shutter the market if they are going to crash the economy. i mean, seriously, what do they think is going to happen? 

You don't think this past Monday was it?  Second largest drop in the Dow in history.

I said last week, they will most likely close it, and probably should.  Anyone who "wants their money" has had ample time.  It's all about getting through the next 4-5 weeks.

[TPS]

1 hour ago, 3rdnlng said:

 

Who would you rather have leading the executive branch at this time? Trump? Biden? Sanders?

You know you won't like it...

Based on these three, if I want someone to go up against the Deep State or cut a deal, it's Trump.  If I want someone to lead through this healthcare crisis, somone who would've been focused early on (instead of the stock market), and making sure protecting workers was a priority (which means their businesses as well), then it's Bernie. If I want someone stuck in a nursing home, it's Biden...

 

[GG]

18 minutes ago, TPS said:

You know you won't like it...

Based on these three, if I want someone to go up against the Deep State or cut a deal, it's Trump.  If I want someone to lead through this healthcare crisis, somone who would've been focused early on (instead of the stock market), and making sure protecting workers was a priority (which means their businesses as well), then it's Bernie. If I want someone stuck in a nursing home, it's Biden...

 

You want the one guy who's never ever held a job to be in charge of a crisis?   Don't you think there's a reason that Hillary destroyed him and why nobody wants to work with him?  Because he's the guy on a group project who always talks but never does the job that was assigned to him.  

[Chandemonium]

2 hours ago, TPS said:

We would not experience a GD that lasted years.  We have the ability to reestablish the economy, just like China has.  In a crisis, everyone is a socialist....

That said, the economy will never be the same after this.  

I hope you’re right about the bolded. Sadly I think the wild card will be how long people will tolerate being unable to work or even leave their homes before it leads to massive social unrest which leads to full on armed revolt. I sincerely hope we don’t get to that point and don’t think we will, but I can’t say it would surprise me either. 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Chandemonium

[TPS]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

You want the one guy who's never ever held a job to be in charge of a crisis?   Don't you think there's a reason that Hillary destroyed him and why nobody wants to work with him?  Because he's the guy on a group project who always talks but never does the job that was assigned to him.  

It was a tough choice between the narcissist, the socialist, and the senility...

[3rdnlng]

4 minutes ago, TPS said:

It was a tough choice between the narcissist, the socialist, and the senility...

There's not a doubt in my mind that Bernie would, if given the chance, interject his socialist ideals into any and all efforts to thwart the virus. There may be some socialistic aspects to what Trump & Congress are doing but they'll have a sunset clause. Bernie's bs would mirror the camel's nose under the tent and have permanent changes to our country. 

[Foxx]

59 minutes ago, TPS said:

You don't think this past Monday was it?  Second largest drop in the Dow in history.

I said last week, they will most likely close it, and probably should.  Anyone who "wants their money" has had ample time.  It's all about getting through the next 4-5 weeks.

a full stop might portend something much worse this coming Monday.

[LSHMEAB]

Is it LEGAL to simultaneously believe that the virus is pretty serious and not some conspiracy, but also not worth the sacrifice we're making to the economy and our way of life? 

 

I just don't see how COVID is serious enough to warrant THIS astronomical cost. If it was the bubonic plague, sure. I get it. This? I just don't see the evidence.

 

Freedom isn't free.

 

On the flip side, gotta inject my liberal views and say that the little 2500 dollar minimum addendum to this stimulus package is absurd. As a matter of fact, the entire notion of means testing during an economic emergency is absurd. How in the name of God can you possibly use 2018 as a gauge for the situation someone is in now? What if someone was unemployed in 2018, got a job, and recently lost it due to this? They get ZERO. What if someone WAS working in 2018, retired, and is now collecting SS? If you're collecting SS, the virus has zero impact on your economic situation. Also, 99k per year in CA or NY is not wealthy. Why would someone making 150k be excluded? They have bills too.

 

I get it; Dems have pushed for means testing. But that makes zero sense in a crisis. If you're gonna send checks, just send them to everyone and sort it out later. Not a fan of McConnel's proposal. 

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by LSHMEAB

[ALF]

NY, IRS push tax deadline to July 15

NY is tied to federal government tax deadline

 

https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/NY-IRS-push-tax-deadline-to-July-15-15145786.php

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

8 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Is it LEGAL to simultaneously believe that the virus is pretty serious and not some conspiracy, but also not worth the sacrifice we're making to the economy and our way of life? 

 

I just don't see how COVID is serious enough to warrant THIS astronomical cost. If it was the bubonic plague, sure. I get it. This? I just don't see the evidence.

 

Freedom isn't free.

 

On the flip side, gotta inject my liberal views and say that the little 2500 dollar minimum addendum to this stimulus package is absurd. As a matter of fact, the entire notion of means testing during an economic emergency is absurd. How in the name of God can you possibly use 2018 as a gauge for the situation someone is in now? What if someone was unemployed in 2018, got a job, and recently lost it due to this? They get ZERO. What if someone WAS working in 2018, retired, and is now collecting SS? If you're collecting SS, the virus has zero impact on your economic situation. Also, 99k per year in CA or NY is not wealthy. Why would someone making 150k be excluded? They have bills too.

 

I get it; Dems have pushed for means testing. But that makes zero sense in a crisis. If you're gonna send checks, just send them to everyone and sort it out later. Not a fan of McConnel's proposal. 

 

 

The "cure" is worse than the disease, no matter what the quarantine shamers say.

[RochesterRob]

15 hours ago, TPS said:

We would not experience a GD that lasted years.  We have the ability to reestablish the economy, just like China has.  In a crisis, everyone is a socialist....

That said, the economy will never be the same after this.  

  We don't know that a downturn will not last for years.  There are so many more working parts to the economy than there were during the 1930's.  Also, once employment recovers that does not automatically mean the Dow recovers to the pre-virus level.  In the mean time quite a few Americans planned on using those pre-virus gains to fund an active retirement.  Purchasing things such as vacation properties, campers, ATV's, etc. and those purchases may be suspended indefinitely.  Businesses depend on making sales on these kinds of items and their income will be reduced.  Our economic model for the past few decades has been the velocity of money which means greater economic activity when a dollar is passed more readily through the economy.  People holding money lessens economic activity.

[Nanker]

People are more likely to die from the regular flus than from this Chinese stink bug. And we inoculate MILLIONS of people every year from getting the flu. 
80,000 died in 2017 - 2018 flu season. 

[TPS]

17 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  We don't know that a downturn will not last for years.  There are so many more working parts to the economy than there were during the 1930's.  Also, once employment recovers that does not automatically mean the Dow recovers to the pre-virus level.  In the mean time quite a few Americans planned on using those pre-virus gains to fund an active retirement.  Purchasing things such as vacation properties, campers, ATV's, etc. and those purchases may be suspended indefinitely.  Businesses depend on making sales on these kinds of items and their income will be reduced.  Our economic model for the past few decades has been the velocity of money which means greater economic activity when a dollar is passed more readily through the economy.  People holding money lessens economic activity.

I've said elsewhere things will never go back to normal, and I agree, along with that, the Dow will never hit its  previous peak in my lifetime (I'm assuming I make it through this). What I am pointing to is the ability to prevent the economy from going on a downward spiral once we get past this thing, which may be a year from now. 

As for velocity, yes it is a reflection of spending, but it is simply a number that is calculated from other values (GDP and money supply).  The behavioral variable is the spending decisions out of income received.

[3rdnlng]

25 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  We don't know that a downturn will not last for years.  There are so many more working parts to the economy than there were during the 1930's.  Also, once employment recovers that does not automatically mean the Dow recovers to the pre-virus level.  In the mean time quite a few Americans planned on using those pre-virus gains to fund an active retirement.  Purchasing things such as vacation properties, campers, ATV's, etc. and those purchases may be suspended indefinitely.  Businesses depend on making sales on these kinds of items and their income will be reduced.  Our economic model for the past few decades has been the velocity of money which means greater economic activity when a dollar is passed more readily through the economy.  People holding money lessens economic activity.

The government is betting that we can get the virus down to a level of infections that we can control and treat before tanking the economy to the extent that we have a long recession. They hope to see the virus level flatten out at an amount that we can handle. Once that is done then we'll be able to get back to work and get what was a red hot economy going again. The question that none of us can answer is when that flattening out will take place. Will it be 2 weeks or 8 weeks or more? 

[TPS]

14 minutes ago, Nanker said:

People are more likely to die from the regular flus than from this Chinese stink bug. And we inoculate MILLIONS of people every year from getting the flu. 
80,000 died in 2017 - 2018 flu season. 

And yet this ignorance persists....

The flu has a contagion factor of about 1.3, each person infects another 1.3, which is a very slow progression; CV has a factor of 2-2.5, which is what generates an exponential expansion of infected. If that number doesn't change, the number of deaths could hit millions.  It's taken about 3 weeks for NYC to max out its hospital capacity. 

Please stop posting this nonsense.

 

[RochesterRob]

1 minute ago, 3rdnlng said:

The government is betting that we can get the virus down to a level of infections that we can control and treat before tanking the economy to the extent that we have a long recession. They hope to see the virus level flatten out at an amount that we can handle. Once that is done then we'll be able to get back to work and get what was a red hot economy going again. The question that none of us can answer is when that flattening out will take place. Will it be 2 weeks or 8 weeks or more? 

  Again, I would point out the complexity of the current economy.  Many small businesses operate on razor thin margins.  Being without income for several weeks would take a very long time to come out of and in the interim creates hardship and affects the ability to service debt.  In my mind many in the government are far removed from what many experience in the economy.  For quite a few of us it is not a matter of waiting for our office to open back up and collect unemployment plus other subsistence payments during the interim.  A pizza shop operator may be able to pay the house mortgage and run the household on subsistence payments but that will not pay the rent on the shop, the utility bill (heat has to stay on so the pipes don't freeze), and the food supplier to name a few.  That aside many were planning on taking the gain in the Dow the past few years and spending it.  Many businesses most likely were depending on it.  Not just retirement splurges but just buying a basic vehicle, an addition or garage on the home property, or a wedding gift for the kids so they can start their own life.  Etc..

[3rdnlng]

4 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Again, I would point out the complexity of the current economy.  Many small businesses operate on razor thin margins.  Being without income for several weeks would take a very long time to come out of and in the interim creates hardship and affects the ability to service debt.  In my mind many in the government are far removed from what many experience in the economy.  For quite a few of us it is not a matter of waiting for our office to open back up and collect unemployment plus other subsistence payments during the interim.  A pizza shop operator may be able to pay the house mortgage and run the household on subsistence payments but that will not pay the rent on the shop, the utility bill (heat has to stay on so the pipes don't freeze), and the food supplier to name a few.  That aside many were planning on taking the gain in the Dow the past few years and spending it.  Many businesses most likely were depending on it.  Not just retirement splurges but just buying a basic vehicle, an addition or garage on the home property, or a wedding gift for the kids so they can start their own life.  Etc..

Landlords are going to be caught between a rock and a hard place. In most cases they are going to have to work with their tenants and find some sort of accommodation. It does them no good to evict a previously successful tenant that paid the rent with the hopes of finding someone else to pay the same rent. 

 

The stock market will come back as long as it wasn't overvalued in the first place. The same people may not have the same equity but someone will have it.

[RochesterRob]

6 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Landlords are going to be caught between a rock and a hard place. In most cases they are going to have to work with their tenants and find some sort of accommodation. It does them no good to evict a previously successful tenant that paid the rent with the hopes of finding someone else to pay the same rent. 

 

The stock market will come back as long as it wasn't overvalued in the first place. The same people may not have the same equity but someone will have it.

  Not all landlords are fat cats like you see on television.  Some have to have the rent to pay the mortgage, insurance, repairs not covered by a tenant, etc..

 

  So much of the stock market is based on emotion.  The DOW at 28,000 could have been overvalued and perhaps 17,000 could be equilibrium.  A lot of people were banking on the gain from 18,000 to 28,000 and will be hard pressed when a recovery of the DOW does not come.  I would agree with your notion if we were a nation of savers versus spenders.  If we were savers the valuation of homes, properties, etc would have never appreciated during the last 40 years like it did.  We took what our grandparents would have saved and through it into spending raising values.

[3rdnlng]

1 minute ago, RochesterRob said:

  Not all landlords are fat cats like you see on television.  Some have to have the rent to pay the mortgage, insurance, repairs not covered by a tenant, etc..

 

  So much of the stock market is based on emotion.  The DOW at 28,000 could have been overvalued and perhaps 17,000 could be equilibrium.  A lot of people were banking on the gain from 18,000 to 28,000 and will be hard pressed when a recovery of the DOW does not come.  I would agree with your notion if we were a nation of savers versus spenders.  If we were savers the valuation of homes, properties, etc would have never appreciated during the last 40 years like it did.  We took what our grandparents would have saved and through it into spending raising values.

Of course landlords have their own expenses that need to be paid. This is an instance where shitrunsuphill though. As a landlord I'd make the best deal that I could with the tenant keeping in mind that it has to be realistic. Then if I needed to I'd go to my lender and see what they could do. 

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

Of course landlords have their own expenses that need to be paid. This is an instance where shitrunsuphill though. As a landlord I'd make the best deal that I could with the tenant keeping in mind that it has to be realistic. Then if I needed to I'd go to my lender and see what they could do. 

  That is what many business people will have to do.

[3rdnlng]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  That is what many business people will have to do.

I don't want to say it's commonplace, but it's commonplace. 

[B-Man]

 

 

U.S. Orders Up To A Yearlong Break On Mortgage Payments

National Public Radio, by Chris Arnold

 

Original Article

 

Homeowners who have lost income or their jobs because of the coronavirus outbreak are getting some relief. Depending on their situation, they should be eligible to have their mortgage payments reduced or suspended for up to 12 months. Federal regulators, through the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are ordering lenders to offer homeowners flexibility. 

 

 

 

.

[Nanker]

1 hour ago, TPS said:

And yet this ignorance persists....

The flu has a contagion factor of about 1.3, each person infects another 1.3, which is a very slow progression; CV has a factor of 2-2.5, which is what generates an exponential expansion of infected. If that number doesn't change, the number of deaths could hit millions.  It's taken about 3 weeks for NYC to max out its hospital capacity. 

Please stop posting this nonsense.

 

You don’t know that any of that is true. 
Dr. Fucci now says the mortality rate is now reckoned to be 1.5% or less. I’m practicing social distancing because it’s the prudent thing to do. 
 

Again, we inoculate tens of millions of Americans every year. That builds up the herd immunity and therefore lowers the transmission rate for the flu. The China virus is not Ebola nor the Black Plague. 
 

You’re sounding like you’re more concerned about the stock market these days. 
 

Stop posting your hysteria nonsense. 

[bbb]

On 3/20/2020 at 12:18 PM, ALF said:

 

If I heard Cuomo  at his press conference just now correctly , yes July 15 for NYS also.  Just wait for official notice.

 

U.S. and NYS tax filing deadlines pushed back to July

 

https://www.ontownmedia.com/coronavirus_pandemic/u-s-and-nys-tax-filing-deadlines-pushed-back-to/article_f0fca881-e9c8-5e43-a8da-e2441d593ea4.html

 

Still double check 

 

I never finalize things till October 15.  This doesn't seem to help me, as I still have to file something by 4/15, from what I heard?

 

11 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

U.S. Orders Up To A Yearlong Break On Mortgage Payments

National Public Radio, by Chris Arnold

 

Original Article

 

Homeowners who have lost income or their jobs because of the coronavirus outbreak are getting some relief. Depending on their situation, they should be eligible to have their mortgage payments reduced or suspended for up to 12 months. Federal regulators, through the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are ordering lenders to offer homeowners flexibility. 

 

 

 

.

 

Anyone know if HELOC rates are low right now?  

[Tiberius]

 

Quote

 

Goldman Sachs is now projecting a massive U.S. economic contraction in the second quarter of the year.

The bank is forecasting a 24% decline in economic activity next quarter, compared to their previous forecast for a 5% decline. That’s because U.S. economic data (specifically manufacturing data) have already started to miss economist estimates, even before Americans started to stay home to avoid spreading the coronavirus.

Their estimate, published Friday morning, is one of the most pessimistic on Wall Street. J.P. Morgan released estimates Wednesday that predicted a 14% contraction in second-quarter U.S. growth.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-economy-could-contract-by-24-next-quarter-goldman-sachs-says-51584713292

[B-Man]

 

 

10 Common Sense Solutions to the Economic Crisis Caused by China

Original Article

 

 

 

ABSOLUTELY THIS:  Support your local businesses, while they still exist.

 

 

 

 

[ALF]

Stimulus package now at $2 trillion as congressional leaders race to clinch agreement Sunday

 

"From my standpoint, we're apart," Pelosi told reporters in the Capitol when asked if she expected a deal Sunday.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/stimulus-package-coronavirus-negotiations-congress/index.html

 

The large previous tax cut ,  now a lot less taxes will be collected  , will the credit rating of the US get hit

[Buffalo_Gal]

7 minutes ago, ALF said:

Stimulus package now at $2 trillion as congressional leaders race to clinch agreement Sunday

 

"From my standpoint, we're apart," Pelosi told reporters in the Capitol when asked if she expected a deal Sunday.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/stimulus-package-coronavirus-negotiations-congress/index.html

 

The large previous tax cut ,  now a lot less taxes will be collected  , will the credit rating of the US get hit

Where else you gonna go?
 

[3rdnlng]

6 minutes ago, ALF said:

Stimulus package now at $2 trillion as congressional leaders race to clinch agreement Sunday

 

"From my standpoint, we're apart," Pelosi told reporters in the Capitol when asked if she expected a deal Sunday.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/stimulus-package-coronavirus-negotiations-congress/index.html

 

The large previous tax cut ,  now a lot less taxes will be collected  , will the credit rating of the US get hit

From my observations over the years any distance between Pelosi and making a deal is that Pelosi is insisting on irrelevant items in the bill that fit furthering her social agenda. Winning to her isn't beating this virus but coming out on top politically. While she says that she prays for the president daily, I rather suspect she spends a good period of time sticking voodoo pins in a DJT doll. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

From my observations over the years any distance between Pelosi and making a deal is that Pelosi is insisting on irrelevant items in the bill that fit furthering her social agenda. Winning to her isn't beating this virus but coming out on top politically. While she says that she prays for the president daily, I rather suspect she spends a good period of time sticking voodoo pins in a DJT doll. 

 

Agreed 

[Deranged Rhino]