2017 NFL Mock Drafts & Top Prospects

[YoloinOhio]

@christrapasso

IMO Gareon Conley > Marshon Lattimore because: better ball skills, longer, more explosive athlete, more experience. Both solid CB prospects

[GunnerBill]

@christrapasso

IMO Gareon Conley > Marshon Lattimore because: better ball skills, longer, more explosive athlete, more experience. Both solid CB prospects

#evaluationfail.

[Kirby Jackson]

@christrapasso

IMO Gareon Conley > Marshon Lattimore because: better ball skills, longer, more explosive athlete, more experience. Both solid CB prospects

Nope

 

I like Conley a lot and he has a pretty high floor too. Lattimore has rare athleticism.

[JohnC]

I have Watson ahead of Wentz I thought Wentz was pushed up way too high because of the pro-style thing.

The result of Wentz being drafted by the Eagles in an expensive deal is that they now have a franchise qb. He started off well and then struggled. What's so surprising about that? The inevitable and inescapable learning process took place. What the Eagles now have is a legitimate franchise qb taking the snaps and their rebuilding process accelerated because the qb position is secured.

 

Now compare that to the Cleveland franchise that received a boatload of picks for the trade with the Eagles. They still don't have a franchise qb and they are still in pursuit of that critical acquisition. Sure they have a surplus of picks but the value of those picks and potential players doesn't come close to the value of having a franchise qb anchored to the team.

 

The people (not you) who clamor for value when discussing the draft don't understand that there is an altogether different metric when discussing the qb position compared to all the other positions. A team that doesn't have a franchise qb and selects a franchise qb prospect who is rated in the 25-50 range potentially has more value and impact on a team than a top five ranked player who is a DB. A player who turns out to be an all pro safety doesn't come close to matching the value of acquiring a qb such as Dalton or little better caliber qb. That's how important the position is.

 

The Bills have passed on a number of reasonable good qb prospects that have gone on to elevate other teams because of their stupid patchwork mentality towards roster building. If more than a generation of futility isn't enough of a demonstration of the foolishness of their method of acquiring players then they are irredeemably obtuse. Too many people have grown comfortable with this environment of mediocrity that has lasted more than a generation. Not I!

[thunderingsquid]

@christrapasso

IMO Gareon Conley > Marshon Lattimore because: better ball skills, longer, more explosive athlete, more experience. Both solid CB prospects

 

If we traded back into late first we might still be able to get him. Where does he project, like 18 to 30 or thereabouts?

Edited April 14, 2017 by thunderingsquid

[thebandit27]

 

If we traded back into late first we might still be able to get him. Where does he project, like 18 to 30 or thereabouts?

 

I think Conley is going top-20

[thunderingsquid]

I have a weird feeling that we are going offense or trading down with our first pick.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

 

I would take Mahomes over Wentz even after Wentz had a decent rookie year and Trubisky over Jared Goff.

 

That standard means you never draft a QB. I am starting to see that's what you desire.

 

If the QB prospects were so great that Todd McShay and Mel Kiper and Mike Mayock all agreed they were wonderful future franchise QB's then we couldn't even trade up for them! Even if we offered our entire draft.

 

Sorry Wentz is a better prospect than any QB in this draft.

I haven't seen anyone that has these guys graded ahead of Wentz. He was a decent prospect IMO and still don't love him.

 

I have tried to be pretty clear as to what I desire. The Bills are getting decent QB production. It is in line with Miami, Baltimore, Cincy, KC and Minnesota. It isn't perfect. I have no interest in drafting a prospect that is maybe a 35% chance to ever get to that level. I am only interested in a prospect that is 50/50 to exceed it while at worst being in that group. The Bills have the luxury of being selective (like those other teams). If you see a guy that has a floor like that group and a ceiling like the elite guys go get him. I don't see it in this group and I don't think that I am alone. That standard doesn't mean you never draft a QB. There are probably 3 guys now in 2018 that check that box.

 

[section122]

The result of Wentz being drafted by the Eagles in an expensive deal is that they now have a franchise qb. He started off well and then struggled. What's so surprising about that? The inevitable and inescapable learning process took place. What the Eagles now have is a legitimate franchise qb taking the snaps and their rebuilding process accelerated because the qb position is secured.

 

wentz is nowhere near a guarantee to be a franchise player. in fact almost across the board he had worse numbers than TT last year. so your narrative could be correct or they mortgaged their future for a bust or he could be a TT level player.

[jeffismagic]

 

Sorry Wentz is a better prospect than any QB in this draft.

 

 

Yes, pro-style QB, we know.

wentz is nowhere near a guarantee to be a franchise player. in fact almost across the board he had worse numbers than TT last year. so your narrative could be correct or they mortgaged their future for a bust or he could be a TT level player.

 

You honestly cannot compare TT to Carson Wentz. The Eagles are pleased as punch with Wentz. The Bills are looking to replace TT.

 

Wentz was asked to carry the Eagles offense. TT was hidden behind an elite running game and not asked to do the same things. Wentz was a first year rookie coming from Division 2 football. TT was in his 6th year in the NFL.

Edited April 14, 2017 by jeffismagic

[Buffalo Barbarian]

 

It's sad that this is such a factor in 2017. The way you hear some of these talking heads discuss QB's it's still 1985 and every team has a fullback.

 

you seem to be forgetting that real GMs are looking for prostyle QBs because Spread QBs are mentally waaaaay behind and this is why they are being avoided because Teams are tired of being burnt. It's not outdated thinking it is new thinking based on the experience of Spread QBs not being able to go through progressions, read defenses and call audibles under pressure.

[YoloinOhio]

 

If we traded back into late first we might still be able to get him. Where does he project, like 18 to 30 or thereabouts?

Gareon? He won't last until 30... 18 might be the floor. His position is coveted and lots of teams need CBs. Crapple went 10th last year. Edited April 14, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[Buffalo Barbarian]

 

Yes, pro-style QB, we know.

 

You honestly cannot compare TT to Carson Wentz. The Eagles are pleased as punch with Wentz. The Bills are looking to replace TT.

 

Wentz was asked to carry the Eagles offense. TT was hidden behind an elite running game and not asked to do the same things. Wentz was a first year rookie coming from Division 2 football. TT was in his 6th year in the NFL.

 

wentz is nowhere near a guarantee to be a franchise player. in fact almost across the board he had worse numbers than TT last year. so your narrative could be correct or they mortgaged their future for a bust or he could be a TT level player.

 

 

this is why Stats are garbage.

 

it is clear watching Wentz is going to be a good to great QB, TT is a RB with an arm.

[jeffismagic]

 

 

 

this is why Stats are garbage.

 

it is clear watching Wentz is going to be a good to great QB, TT is a RB with an arm.

 

You nailed it.

[SWATeam]

 

 

 

this is why Stats are garbage.

 

it is clear watching Wentz is going to be a good to great QB, TT is a RB with an arm.

Uh oh, has Wentz been Buffalo Barbarian'd?

[GunnerBill]

wentz is nowhere near a guarantee to be a franchise player. in fact almost across the board he had worse numbers than TT last year. so your narrative could be correct or they mortgaged their future for a bust or he could be a TT level player.

Wentz got off to a hot start last year and the narrative was set at that point. His performance after week 4 was not very good. I never felt like he was a guy you should trade up for (nor did I for Goff) but if I was Cleveland I would absolutely have taken him at #2. Nor do I feel that you should trade up for any of this year's QBs, but I really don't see this big vaccuum between Goff and Wentz as propsects and Watson and Trubisky - indeed I have Watson graded higher.

 

I suppose I just think the 2016 pair were a little overrated (Mayock said at one point he thought they were better than Winston and Mariota - crazy talk) and that this year's class has been a little underrated by many out there.

 

Both classes lacked (in my opinion) true top 10 talent at the QB position but both had guys who if I didn't have one I would be happy to take in the top 10 if I was drafting there.

 

Maybe the 2018 class really is the 2004 class reincarnated (I haven't watched enough to know) but unless the Bills plan to be bad, and it is clear to me that they don't, then they should not let that prevent them from drafting a Quarterback who they feel could be a franchise guy at #10 this year.

[jeffismagic]

 

you seem to be forgetting that real GMs are looking for prostyle QBs because Spread QBs are mentally waaaaay behind and this is why they are being avoided because Teams are tired of being burnt. It's not outdated thinking it is new thinking based on the experience of Spread QBs not being able to go through progressions, read defenses and call audibles under pressure.

 

Of course NFL teams want to draft players with no projection or skill involved. When you have a top talent like an Andrew Luck playing in an NFL offense in college it makes the job easy. The problem is that real GM's DO look at spread QB's because that's where most of the talent is. If you ignore most of the talented players you have to depend on getting a #1 draft choice in a year where a top talent pro-style QB comes out. And I see that this is what you have advocated for under different threads before.

 

But for the teams that aren't drafting #1 in such a year, you have to have skill and do scouting. Scout the traits.

 

Now take Mahomes. He runs a gimmicky spread offense. Now the goal is to get the ball out fast. And he does that. He also does go through progressions if the initial read isn't there. He also, unlike most Air Raid QB's, has the power to change the play at the line. He also is reading the defenses (unfortunately, whether you are spread or pro-style, the college defenses are far less sophisticated). He also has a coach that played with Brady and the Patriots and who installs NFL plays for Texas Tech.

 

So is it going to be easy? No, not for Mahomes or anyone. But I love the skillset and if you create an NFL offense around what he can do and expand Mahomes could be playing as soon as this year.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

 

Of course NFL teams want to draft players with no projection or skill involved. When you have a top talent like an Andrew Luck playing in an NFL offense in college it makes the job easy. The problem is that real GM's DO look at spread QB's because that's where most of the talent is. If you ignore most of the talented players you have to depend on getting a #1 draft choice in a year where a top talent pro-style QB comes out. And I see that this is what you have advocated for under different threads before.

 

But for the teams that aren't drafting #1 in such a year, you have to have skill and do scouting. Scout the traits.

 

Now take Mahomes. He runs a gimmicky spread offense. Now the goal is to get the ball out fast. And he does that. He also does go through progressions if the initial read isn't there. He also, unlike most Air Raid QB's, has the power to change the play at the line. He also is reading the defenses (unfortunately, whether you are spread or pro-style, the college defenses are far less sophisticated). He also has a coach that played with Brady and the Patriots and who installs NFL plays for Texas Tech.

 

So is it going to be easy? No, not for Mahomes or anyone. But I love the skillset and if you create an NFL offense around what he can do and expand Mahomes could be playing as soon as this year.

 

I used to think this but spread guys proved me wrong too many times.

[jeffismagic]

 

I used to think this but spread guys proved me wrong too many times.

 

The NFL and the College game are getting closer, not farther apart. Teams such as the Patriots, Chiefs, and Broncos use Air Raid concepts to get the ball out quicker. Fewer and fewer colleges run anything but spread offenses.

 

I honestly think the issue is the college defenses more than the offenses. I was talking to a coach in college and he said it's just hard to teach them combo man/zone coverages. So I think it's a big step up for all the college QB's, regardless of system.

[JohnC]

wentz is nowhere near a guarantee to be a franchise player. in fact almost across the board he had worse numbers than TT last year. so your narrative could be correct or they mortgaged their future for a bust or he could be a TT level player.

Wentz was a rookie last year. So the comparisons are not fair to make. Regardless what stats you want to use in comparison what is revealing is that our GM didn't have much interest in retaining him. The contract that was reworked indicated that he was at best a bridge qb who is working on a very short term and cheap contract.

 

There is a good reason why the Bills are putting in a lot of effort in evaluating this draft class. It's indisputable that one of the reasons is that the organization doesn't see much long term potential in TT.

 

This is my opinion but there is no team in the league that would take TT over Wentz, assuming of course that the decision-makers are sober.

[26CornerBlitz]

@RyanTalbotBills

NFL's Chad Reuter has #Bills selecting Cam Robinson and Chad Kelly in six-round mock draft http://bit.ly/2pBJlUQ

[JohnC]

Bucky Brooks was on John Murphy's WGR show talking about the draft. This is about an eleven minute segment. Interesting stuff. He concluded that he felt the best player in the draft was LSU's safety.

 

http://www.wgr550.com/media/audio-channel/04-14-nfl-analyst-bucky-brooks-john-murphy-showmp3

[Buffalo Barbarian]

 

The NFL and the College game are getting closer, not farther apart. Teams such as the Patriots, Chiefs, and Broncos use Air Raid concepts to get the ball out quicker. Fewer and fewer colleges run anything but spread offenses.

 

I honestly think the issue is the college defenses more than the offenses. I was talking to a coach in college and he said it's just hard to teach them combo man/zone coverages. So I think it's a big step up for all the college QB's, regardless of system.

 

Team are using spread concepts for sure but again the College spread don't teach these kids to go through progressions and read defenses and are woefully unprepared to play in the NFL. look at what Jet QB Bryce Petty said in that he didn't even know what the Mike was.

 

NFL teams can't simplify their offenses because they would get crushed by the defenses. It's like the triple option, it can work in college but not in the pros because the players are too good and smart for it.

Uh oh, has Wentz been Buffalo Barbarian'd?

 

your late, did you miss this last year ?

 

@RyanTalbotBills

NFL's Chad Reuter has #Bills selecting Cam Robinson and Chad Kelly in six-round mock draft http://bit.ly/2pBJlUQ

 

 

[Watkins101]

We're in agreement here. The issue many of us have is that the Bills assessment of value on QB's has been wrong year after year.

So, if the bills like a qb, don't take it and if they hate a prospect they should take it.

[LabattBlue]

Sal & Schopp did a mock yesterday using some website. Had the Bills trading down twice and ended up with...

 

TE O.J. Howard

QB P. Mahomes

WR Z. Jones

FS B. Baker

 

 

LOL...Fat chance of the draft falling that way even if the Bills did trade down twice.

[thunderingsquid]

Sal & Schopp did a mock yesterday using some website. Had the Bills trading down twice and ended up with...

 

TE O.J. Howard

QB P. Mahomes

WR Z. Jones

FS B. Baker

 

 

LOL...Fat chance of the draft falling that way even if the Bills did trade down twice.

 

OMG that's impossible.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

OMG that's impossible.

Yeah, the people on WGR don't know anything. It's really kind of crazy, in an NFL market, that the sports talk people could know so little about football. It's really different in the south. All of the people on sports talk radio played in high school, college and/or the NFL. Buffalo used to have a very educated fan base and it has been a 180 (this place excluded). Obviously not winning has impacted it but when the people relaying the message don't really understand it, everyone is set back. No one is going to learn football listening to Mike Schopp. He just doesn't know the game and the league. He has a platform but a 4th grade education.

[Augie]

Yeah, the people on WGR don't know anything. It's really kind of crazy, in an NFL market, that the sports talk people could know so little about football. It's really different in the south. All of the people on sports talk radio played in high school, college and/or the NFL. Buffalo used to have a very educated fan base and it has been a 180 (this place excluded). Obviously not winning has impacted it but when the people relaying the message don't really understand it, everyone is set back. No one is going to learn football listening to Mike Schopp. He just doesn't know the game and the league. He has a platform but a 4th grade education.

I must admit, growing up in WNY I was aware of CFB to the extent that they announced "and Bucknell triumphed over Cornell by 3" on a late Saturday CFB scoreboard announcement. Life near me in Georgia now is a whole new game!

[26CornerBlitz]

@SalSports

I've divided up general consensus top 40 players of the draft into how likely they'll be available when Bills select

https://t.co/0hLd90IEkH

[Kirby Jackson]

I usually can't wait for the draft to get here now I can't wait for it to be over.

[26CornerBlitz]

@buffalobills

We're getting into 2017 #NFLDraft crunch time. And the predictions for our first-round pick are all over the map: http://bufbills.co/jJc7ve

[section122]

 

You honestly cannot compare TT to Carson Wentz. The Eagles are pleased as punch with Wentz. The Bills are looking to replace TT.

 

Wentz was asked to carry the Eagles offense. TT was hidden behind an elite running game and not asked to do the same things. Wentz was a first year rookie coming from Division 2 football. TT was in his 6th year in the NFL.

 

The point of my post was we do not know if Wentz is a franchise guy and someone that the trade was worth. Yet. He may very well develop into a franchise guy but I don't see how anyone can say it is a guarantee.

 

I do think it strange though that you say Wentz was asked to carry the Eagles offense and that the Eagles are "pleased as punch" with a guy who went for 11 tds and 14 ints over his last 13 games. If he was asked to carry the offense he didn't do a very good job. I think back to Edward's Arm who use to post non stop about ypa being the best measuring statistic for projecting a qb. Wentz had a ypa of 6.23 which was good for 29th in the league ahead of only Brock Osweiler.

 

To my original point, Wentz may develop but he has a LONG way to go before that trade was a win for the Eagles.

 

 

Wentz got off to a hot start last year and the narrative was set at that point. His performance after week 4 was not very good. I never felt like he was a guy you should trade up for (nor did I for Goff) but if I was Cleveland I would absolutely have taken him at #2. Nor do I feel that you should trade up for any of this year's QBs, but I really don't see this big vaccuum between Goff and Wentz as propsects and Watson and Trubisky - indeed I have Watson graded higher.

 

I suppose I just think the 2016 pair were a little overrated (Mayock said at one point he thought they were better than Winston and Mariota - crazy talk) and that this year's class has been a little underrated by many out there.

 

Both classes lacked (in my opinion) true top 10 talent at the QB position but both had guys who if I didn't have one I would be happy to take in the top 10 if I was drafting there.

 

Maybe the 2018 class really is the 2004 class reincarnated (I haven't watched enough to know) but unless the Bills plan to be bad, and it is clear to me that they don't, then they should not let that prevent them from drafting a Quarterback who they feel could be a franchise guy at #10 this year.

 

The bolded is very true. Tyrod gets killed for his lack of production as a second year starter but across the board put up better numbers than Wentz. Wentz "was asked to carry the Eagles" and put up 245.75 ypg. Tyrod was hidden and put up 240.2 ypg. Wentz struggled mightily from week 5 on. It may be growing pains but he certainly didn't come in and set the league on fire.

 

I struggle with what to do at 10. A QB if they work out would definitely be the best course of action but it would also be giving up on this year. I'm not sold on a qb this year but not completely against it. I like Watson and Mahomes the best of the top 4 and dislike Trubisky and Kizer. I like that the Bills are doing their homework on the class as they should every year. It is a welcome change. This is the first year I don't really have a guy I like but a bunch of guys I'd be okay with. Last year I wanted Lawson but didn't think he would last so I was ecstatic. The only other year the Bills grabbed my guy was Dareus. I'm going wait and see this year and just gonna trust that the team has done its homework and picked a guy who can be a stud in the league qb or otherwise.

[YoloinOhio]

Mccaffrey refusing all private workouts, team drafting in teens has apparently "guaranteed" they will draft him if available

http://draftanalyst.com/da-draft-buzz-april-17-whats-behind-mccaffreys-decision

[thebandit27]

Mccaffrey refusing all private workouts, team drafting in teens has apparently "guaranteed" they will draft him if available

http://draftanalyst.com/da-draft-buzz-april-17-whats-behind-mccaffreys-decision

Colts or Redskins?

[Kirby Jackson]

Colts or Redskins?

That feels like something the Redskins would do.

[YoloinOhio]

That feels like something the Redskins would do.

did Washington hire a GM yet? Who is making the calls there, Bruce Allen? As an aside, I wonder if there is a Stanford connection with Luck and Mccaffrey and he has some input in Indy on who they draft. Different FO of course now, but Peyton manning used to have a lot of input on who they drafted on offense. Edited April 17, 2017 by YoloinOhio

[jeffismagic]

 

The point of my post was we do not know if Wentz is a franchise guy and someone that the trade was worth. Yet. He may very well develop into a franchise guy but I don't see how anyone can say it is a guarantee.

 

I do think it strange though that you say Wentz was asked to carry the Eagles offense and that the Eagles are "pleased as punch" with a guy who went for 11 tds and 14 ints over his last 13 games. If he was asked to carry the offense he didn't do a very good job. I think back to Edward's Arm who use to post non stop about ypa being the best measuring statistic for projecting a qb. Wentz had a ypa of 6.23 which was good for 29th in the league ahead of only Brock Osweiler.

 

To my original point, Wentz may develop but he has a LONG way to go before that trade was a win for the Eagles.

 

 

 

The bolded is very true. Tyrod gets killed for his lack of production as a second year starter but across the board put up better numbers than Wentz. Wentz "was asked to carry the Eagles" and put up 245.75 ypg. Tyrod was hidden and put up 240.2 ypg. Wentz struggled mightily from week 5 on. It may be growing pains but he certainly didn't come in and set the league on fire.

 

I struggle with what to do at 10. A QB if they work out would definitely be the best course of action but it would also be giving up on this year. I'm not sold on a qb this year but not completely against it. I like Watson and Mahomes the best of the top 4 and dislike Trubisky and Kizer. I like that the Bills are doing their homework on the class as they should every year. It is a welcome change. This is the first year I don't really have a guy I like but a bunch of guys I'd be okay with. Last year I wanted Lawson but didn't think he would last so I was ecstatic. The only other year the Bills grabbed my guy was Dareus. I'm going wait and see this year and just gonna trust that the team has done its homework and picked a guy who can be a stud in the league qb or otherwise.

 

I realize that you are a Bills fan (I am too) but I am trying to demonstrate how the league views these players. Tyrod Taylor, if he was as good as you think he is, could have refused to take a paycut and went to free agency. Free agency is desired by NFL players who are in high demand. Tyrod and his agent took a paycut instead.

 

As for Wentz, he was asked to throw the ball a lot. Top 5 in the NFL where Tyrod was in the bottom of the NFL for passing attempts. Two completely different situations. One is asked to carry the team and the other only throws primarily on favorable down and distance situations. That is the problem with citing the stats that you do. They miss the bigger picture.

 

Finally, you say Wentz is not a sure thing. So what? He has a chance to be a franchise QB. The Eagles feel good about it. Where is Buffalo? Nowhere.

Edited April 17, 2017 by jeffismagic

[Chuck Wagon]

Colts or Redskins?

 

 

Colts certainly have ties to Stanford.

[thebandit27]

 

 

Colts certainly have ties to Stanford.

 

I think it's most likely to be one of those 2 teams, but then again, I don't think he'll be there at either 15 or 17.

[section122]

 

I realize that you are a Bills fan (I am too) but I am trying to demonstrate how the league views these players. Tyrod Taylor, if he was as good as you think he is, could have refused to take a paycut and went to free agency. Free agency is desired by NFL players who are in high demand. Tyrod and his agent took a paycut instead.

 

As for Wentz, he was asked to throw the ball a lot. Top 5 in the NFL where Tyrod was in the bottom of the NFL for passing attempts. Two completely different situations. One is asked to carry the team and the other only throws primarily on favorable down and distance situations. That is the problem with citing the stats that you do. They miss the bigger picture.

 

Finally, you say Wentz is not a sure thing. So what? He has a chance to be a franchise QB. The Eagles feel good about it. Where is Buffalo? Nowhere.

 

I have TT pegged about 20th best qb I just happen to rank Wentz below that for now.

 

The league doesn't know whether Wentz can or can't do it yet. I was responding to a post originally that stated the Eagles made a trade and mortgaged their future and it was worth it because now they have their guy. That is why I keep repeating he isn't a sure thing. Simply because he went #2 and a team spent a ton to get him doesn't mean it is the right move or that it will work. A perfect example of this is RG3 in Washington (who actually had a much better rookie year than Wentz). As for the pay cut there is a larger sample size and TT isn't on a rookie contract. I wonder how they would be viewed if the money was the same. Think about this, Wentz would have to improve just to put up the numbers TT already has. I love what the Eagles did this offseason though by getting him weapons. Alshon was a fantastic pick up. They made an investment and now they are doubling down on it. That is smart. The Bills made an investment and as of yet have done nothing to help him. That is frustrating to me and part of what makes me second guess a qb at 10. I've said it before but it bears repeating. You have made up your mind that TT doesn't have it. I haven't yet and I would like to see him given a punchers chance with some talent at the WR position.

 

On an aside though... I have to go back to the attempts and being asked to carry the team. It is just wrong imo. On a per game basis Wentz was indeed 6th in the league in attempts per game and TT was 32nd. That sounds like a huge difference. In reality it was 8.8 attempts per game. 37.9 to 29.1. Looking at it that way it doesn't really seem like that narrative holds up that way either. Those 8 attempts led to an average of 34.9 more yards per game. Again not a gigantic difference. Especially when that boils down to 4.4 yards per throw. This was never meant to be a TT vs. Wentz derailment so we don't have to continue down this path. I just find it strange that by almost measurement TT was better than Wentz last year and Wentz is better? To me that is because he doesn't play for the Bills and he was drafted 2nd overall. Not because of his actual performance.