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Tie Breaks With Steelers And Jets Could Be Decided This Week

ICanSleepWhenI'mDead
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ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Veteran

ICanSleepWhenI'mDead

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With the log jam of AFC teams in the hunt for the 2 wild card spots, I thought I'd take a look how the Bills are likely to fare if the tie-break rules come into play at the end of the season. You won't usually read about this in the mainstream media because it requires a little analysis (but not much). Here's what I found (assumes a 2 way tie between the indicated team and the Bills, 3 way ties are beyond the scope of this post):

 

1. Pittsburgh - if the Steelers beat Seattle, the Bills will have the tie-break over the Steelers, no matter what happens in any other games for the rest of the season. Sounds crazy, right? But it's true. Here's why. The first tie-break for the Bills versus any team outside the AFC East is conference games if we haven't played them head-to-head. So how can we know who would own the tie-break between the Steelers and the Bills with so many AFC conference games still to play for both teams. Answer - Math.

 

All regular season games are either conference games or non-conference games. If the Steelers beat the Seahawks this week, the Steelers will be 4-0 against the NFC. The Bills have only played one NFC team so far, which was a loss to the NY Giants. So even though the Bills still have 3 games left against NFC teams, if the Steelers beat the Seahawks this weekend, we will know to a certainty that the Steelers will finish the regular season with a better record against NFC teams than the Bills.

 

With a worse record against NFC teams, the only way the Bills can finish the regular season with the same overall record as the Steelers is if the Bills wind up with a better record against AFC teams than the Steelers. Having a better record against AFC teams than the Steelers would give us the tie-breaker over the Steelers. That's just math.

 

2. NY Jets - if the Bills lose to KC this weekend, the Bills chances of owning the tie-break over the Jets goes up, not down. Sounds even crazier, right? But once again it's true - - blame math. Here's how it goes:

 

Within the AFC East, the tie-breaker isn't conference games, it's (1) head-to-head, then if necessary (2) AFC East division record, and then if still necessary (3) record against common opponents.

 

We won the first head-to-head game with the Jets, so even if the Jets win the re-match in the last regular season game, they can't own the tie-breaker over us based on head-to-head record.

 

Right now, we are 3-2 in the division, while the Jets are currently 1-2 in the division. So for the Jets to own the tie-break based on division record, they would need to not only beat us in the last regular season game, but would also need to beat Miami this weekend and beat New England in their next-to-last regular season game.

 

But let's say the Jets lose to either the Fish this weekend or to New England in week 16. That would mean the Jets would finish the regular season with no better than a 3-3 division record, even if they beat us in the final regular season game. In that scenario, even if the Jets beat us in the final regular season game, we get to the third tie-breaker, which is games against common opponents.

 

Each AFC East team only plays 2 regular season games against non-common opponents. For the Bills/Jets tiebreak scenario, the non-common opponents for the Bills are the Bengals and the Chiefs (because those are the only 2 teams we play that the Jets don't play). The non-common opponents for the Jets are the Browns and the Raiders (because those are the only 2 teams the Jets play that we don't). The Jets already beat the Browns and lost to the Raiders, so they are 1-1 in games against non-common opponents. We already lost to the Bengals, so if we lose to the Chiefs this weekend, we will be 0-2 against non-common opponents, and will know to a certainty that we will finish the regular season with a worse record against non-common opponents than the Jets.

 

The only way we can finish the regular season with the same overall record as the Jets, if we have a worse record than the Jets against non-common opponents, is to have a better record than the Jets against common opponents. That would give us the tie-breaker against the Jets.

 

So this weekend, if we lose to the Chiefs and the Jets lose to Miami, we will win the tie-breaker with the Jets, no matter what happens in any other games this season.

 

If we lose to the Chiefs and the Jets later lose to New England, we would also win the tie-breaker with the Jets, no matter what happens in any other games this season.

 

Just thought y'all might like to know.

 

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

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Pete Hall of Famer

Pete

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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/11/25/afc-playoff-picture-patriots-closing-in-on-clinching/

 

LEADERS
1. Patriots (10-0): They may not go 16-0, but they’ll be heavy favorites in all of their remaining games.

2. Bengals (8-2): Cincinnati owns the conference record tiebreaker with the Broncos for now, but the real tiebreaker between the two will be settled when they meet on December 28.

3. Broncos (8-2): The Broncos’ schedule isn’t easy, with remaining games against the Patriots, Bengals and Steelers.

4. Colts (5-5): Indianapolis has the head-to-head tiebreaker edge over Houston in the AFC South.

5. Steelers (6-4): Pittsburgh probably can’t catch Cincinnati in the AFC North, but the Steelers have the inside track on the wild card race.

6. Chiefs (5-5): Kansas City wins the tiebreaker over Houston and Buffalo based on winning percentage in conference games.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
7. Texans (5-5): Houston has looked like a mess for much of this season, but the Texans still have a real shot at winning the AFC South.

8. Bills (5-5): Buffalo owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Jets.

9. Jets (5-5): After winning four of their first five, the Jets have now lost four of their last five.

10. Raiders (4-6): A three-game losing streak has Oakland looking like a long shot.

11. Jaguars (4-6): Jacksonville is only a game out in the AFC South and has an easy schedule the rest of the way. It wouldn’t be a shock to see a playoff game in Jacksonville.

12. Dolphins (4-6): Their brief turnaround under interim head coach Dan Campbell now feels like a long time ago.

Edited by Pete
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fridge Veteran

fridge

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With the log jam of AFC teams in the hunt for the 2 wild card spots, I thought I'd take a look how the Bills are likely to fare if the tie-break rules come into play at the end of the season. You won't usually read about this in the mainstream media because it requires a little analysis (but not much). Here's what I found (assumes a 2 way tie between the indicated team and the Bills, 3 way ties are beyond the scope of this post):

 

1. Pittsburgh - if the Steelers beat Seattle, the Bills will have the tie-break over the Steelers, no matter what happens in any other games for the rest of the season. Sounds crazy, right? But it's true. Here's why. The first tie-break for the Bills versus any team outside the AFC East is conference games if we haven't played them head-to-head. So how can we know who would own the tie-break between the Steelers and the Bills with so many AFC conference games still to play for both teams. Answer - Math.

 

All regular season games are either conference games or non-conference games. If the Steelers beat the Seahawks this week, the Steelers will be 4-0 against the NFC. The Bills have only played one NFC team so far, which was a loss to the NY Giants. So even though the Bills still have 3 games left against NFC teams, if the Steelers beat the Seahawks this weekend, we will know to a certainty that the Steelers will finish the regular season with a better record against NFC teams than the Bills.

 

With a worse record against NFC teams, the only way the Bills can finish the regular season with the same overall record as the Steelers is if the Bills wind up with a better record against AFC teams than the Steelers. Having a better record against AFC teams than the Steelers would give us the tie-breaker over the Steelers. That's just math.

 

2. NY Jets - if the Bills lose to KC this weekend, the Bills chances of owning the tie-break over the Jets goes up, not down. Sounds even crazier, right? But once again it's true - - blame math. Here's how it goes:

 

Within the AFC East, the tie-breaker isn't conference games, it's (1) head-to-head, then if necessary (2) AFC East division record, and then if still necessary (3) record against common opponents.

 

We won the first head-to-head game with the Jets, so even if the Jets win the re-match in the last regular season game, they can't own the tie-breaker over us based on head-to-head record.

 

Right now, we are 3-2 in the division, while the Jets are currently 1-2 in the division. So for the Jets to own the tie-break based on division record, they would need to not only beat us in the last regular season game, but would also need to beat Miami this weekend and beat New England in their next-to-last regular season game.

 

But let's say the Jets lose to either the Fish this weekend or to New England in week 16. That would mean the Jets would finish the regular season with no better than a 3-3 division record, even if they beat us in the final regular season game. In that scenario, even if the Jets beat us in the final regular season game, we get to the third tie-breaker, which is games against common opponents.

 

Each AFC East team only plays 2 regular season games against non-common opponents. For the Bills/Jets tiebreak scenario, the non-common opponents for the Bills are the Bengals and the Chiefs (because those are the only 2 teams we play that the Jets don't play). The non-common opponents for the Jets are the Browns and the Raiders (because those are the only 2 teams the Jets play that we don't). The Jets already beat the Browns and lost to the Raiders, so they are 1-1 in games against non-common opponents. We already lost to the Bengals, so if we lose to the Chiefs this weekend, we will be 0-2 against non-common opponents, and will know to a certainty that we will finish the regular season with a worse record against non-common opponents than the Jets.

 

The only way we can finish the regular season with the same overall record as the Jets, if we have a worse record than the Jets against non-common opponents, is to have a better record than the Jets against common opponents. That would give us the tie-breaker against the Jets.

 

So this weekend, if we lose to the Chiefs and the Jets lose to Miami, we will win the tie-breaker with the Jets, no matter what happens in any other games this season.

 

If we lose to the Chiefs and the Jets later lose to New England, we would also win the tie-breaker with the Jets, no matter what happens in any other games this season.

 

Just thought y'all might like to know.

 

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

I like the way you think. It presupposes that we'll share the same record with Pittsburgh, in which case I would have to think we would be in good shape for the wildcard, regardless of all this "math".

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What a Tuel Veteran

What a Tuel

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All I know is this is a must win against the Chiefs. A loss to them means we would be dependent on them losing 3 of the last 5. I can see Oakland putting up a fight, but like people have said Baltimore is beat up badly, they dismantled the chargers away already, and the Browns...well they are the Browns, I'd rather not depend on them Week 16.

 

Win this week and improve our odds this week dramatically.

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NoSaint Hall of Famer

NoSaint

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Isn't it a little early for this?

I believe if you read the post you'll see otherwise. He outlines how several of our tiebreaks will be determined this week if we end tied up come seasons end.

 

Excellent job to the OP, assuming all accurate. One of the more interesting contributions of the week.

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BillsFan-4-Ever All Pro

BillsFan-4-Ever

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Isn't it a little early for this?

nope.. the playoff machines are up and running.

 

With a Bills W against the Chefs they stand a better chance to hold the WC spot.

Win the following week against Houston and it's very favorable odds they keep the #5 seed.

 

barring a total collapse against the NFCE They must win 2 of those 3

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Tuco RFA

Tuco

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That's pretty good. But . . . . . what if Pittsburgh takes the 5th seed outright and we get in a 3 way tiebreaker for the 6th seed with Kansas City and Houston? If we lose to Kansas City and beat Houston, Kansas City wins that tiebreaker because they would own head to head over us and Houston.

 

Losing to them both is not an option. But beating Houston and losing to Kansas City, then finishing in a 3 way tie sends us to AFC record. KC is already 1-3 in the NFC, meaning if we win just one of our remaining NFC games we would still tie them in AFC record, but lose to them in AFC if we win more than one NFC game . But if Houston beats New Orleans this week that makes them 2-2 in NFC. That would give the 3 way tiebreaker to KC via AFC record unless we tank all but one of our NFC games. But even if we go 1-3 in the NFC, if Houston goes 2-2 that knocks them out of the tiebreaker. That would send us and KC back to step one of the 2 team format where they would have us on head to head.

 

So looking at the overall picture we should just beat KC and Houston. Then if we have to beat the Jesters in week 17 to get in, so be it.

 

But it's nice to know if we lose to Kansas City there is a bright side . . . . sort of . . . I guess.

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Dr. K Veteran

Dr. K

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My rule of thumb every season is: beat the AFC teams you play. If the Bills beat the Chiefs, Texans, and Jets, then they could even make it at 8-8. If they win one of the Eagles, Redskins, or Cowboys in addition to make it to 9-7 they should be golden.

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