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Matt Cassel a Bill


Nanker

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One thing which cannot be overlooked, IMO, and was probably highly discussed at OBD is, we had EJ and Tuel on our team. We HAD to get a vet in FA. As soon as FA started we would be bringing in crappy guys and other teams would be after them, too, and we didn't know if we would get the one guy less crappy we wanted, and risked being stuck with the crappiest of the crappy, and had to wait and take a lot of time away from going after and Rex-schmoozing guys we want like a top OG or TE.

 

Now we don't have to do that, even if we still want Jake Locker or someone else.

My question is: Would Jake Locker, (or Matt Moore, Or Hoyer, or any of the other crappy guys going into FA), be less inclined to accept an offer from the Bills, knowing that Cassel has been added to the competition?

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My question is: Would Jake Locker, (or Matt Moore, Or Hoyer, or any of the other crappy guys going into FA), be less inclined to accept an offer from the Bills, knowing that Cassel has been added to the competition?

Probably. But I would doubt that they make the trade unless they thought Cassell was a safe, decent option. He's better than these other guys. Roman has won with guys like him. I seriously doubt they bring in Hoyer after Cassell but Locker would not surprise me. He has the potential and upside.

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One thing which cannot be overlooked, IMO, and was probably highly discussed at OBD is, we had EJ and Tuel on our team. We HAD to get a vet in FA. As soon as FA started we would be bringing in crappy guys and other teams would be after them, too, and we didn't know if we would get the one guy less crappy we wanted, and risked being stuck with the crappiest of the crappy Sanchez, and had to wait and take a lot of time away from going after and Rex-schmoozing guys we want like a top OG or TE.

 

Now we don't have to do that, even if we still want Jake Locker or someone else.

 

Fixed

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I think the Bills are done shopping for QBs - outside of the draft. I think they'll take one in Round 2 or 3.

 

That said - Cassel will be the Comeback Player of the Year and break the playoff drought in 2015. Now, where did I put my bong.......

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Probably. But I would doubt that they make the trade unless they thought Cassell was a safe, decent option. He's better than these other guys. Roman has won with guys like him. I seriously doubt they bring in Hoyer after Cassell but Locker would not surprise me. He has the potential and upside.

Matt Moore has been my hope. (Using the term "hope" rather loosely, here.)

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Worse than Sanchez in my opinion, and by a fair amount. But it really doesn't matter much. They're all bad options. He's gotten worse every year of late, and is basically a statue. He did play in the little league world series though, and that's pretty cool.

 

The basic question I ask myself is this: is player X (in this case, Cassell) an upgrade over Orton? I'd say no here.

 

He's different than Orton. Don't know if I'd say worse or better, just different.

 

OK, here's my assessment of Cassel FWIW. Overall I like it and assume his foot is healed and he comes around to the notion of B'lo, I think it's a good move for us. I hope we have language getting us out of the picks if he retires or doesn't report since reportedly he is not happy with a move to B'lo.

 

I know people like to diss off statistics, but work with me here.

 

First thing I see is he's a system guy. He had a good year with NWE in a system in 2008 - in fact about as good a year as you could expect an unheralded backup with no experience to have - and then another good year in a system in 2010.

 

He sucked in 2009. As many INTs as TDs and an ungodly 14 fumbles. So in 2009 what happened? Ah HA! That was the year Todd Haley fired Chan Gailey after the 3rd preseason game, threw out his offense, and took over as OC. I think we might give Matt a bit of a pass on that year, given the circs and that he came back nicely the following year under Charlie Weiss.

 

So what is the system that suits him?

2008 NWE: Patriots OC Josh McDaniels. The run is important to McDaniels now and it was then: NE runs an offense that is 49% rushes and produced >2000 yds rushing with a stable of 4 RBs

Welker and Moss both had 1000+ yd seasons as receivers, along with the RBs - at a guess, lots of short 3-4 yd dump offs that went for 3-4 extra YAC combined with a handful of deep bombs to Moss when the D tried to choke down on the middle of the field and the run.

2010 Chiefs: OC Charlie Weis. Even more run-centered offense with 54% run attempts for 2600 yds split between Jamaal Charles and his backup, who almost gets to 900 yds. Similar thing on the passing game - short passes to Charles and Moeaki with YAC go for about half the yards, deep bombs to Dwayne Bowe for >1000 yds.

 

I don't know specifics of the kind of offense run for the next 2 years in KC, except to say that Cassel sucked in whatever system they ran in 2012.

 

It's not true that he's done nothing but get worse for the last 4 years - actually in 2013 for the Vikes he had a good year , going above 60% completions and 7 YPA for the 2nd time in his career. Again, I don't know much about the offense they ran, but I'm fairly sure it was centered on Adrian Peterson. So again, run-centric short pass offense.

 

In 2014, he played one great game and then 2 crap games with AP suspended before getting injured, but word has it he was a great involved mentor for Bridgewater the rest of the year.

 

So there you have it folks - if we plan to "ground and pound" while focusing our passing game on short stuff positioned to obtain YAC and the occasional deep bomb, we should have a competent QB to run that type of system. And if EJ or someone else should prove to be better, we have a good backup and mentor. If we plan to install a high-falutin' pass-first-to-run Gailey kind of offense, we'll suck big time.

 

The other thing I can say about Cassel is, absent 2009, he hangs on to the football - few fumbles. And he throws INTs in streaks. Games where he doesn't throw a pick or maybe one, are followed by games where he throws 4 (vs NE last year). Hopefully Lee and Roman have ideas about what's with that.

 

Overall, I'm happy. I think Moore may have a higher possible level of play but also higher risk since he hasn't actually started a game for years. Other than Moore and the already-signed McCown, I think he's better than the other FA out there provided you understand the system he's good at and work with it. Good ball security, has played on 2 playoff-caliber teams so should know what it takes, good mentor, seems to be durable.

Edited by Hopeful
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I hear you. Thanks for the answer. The only things I can say to try to sway you a bit more towards the comfortable side of this trade is the Shady cap numbers are a mirage at this point. He'll renegotiate before he's a Bill and it'll leave the Bills in great cap shape. As for Kiko, you're right he could have a long and great career. I think the Bills like Bradham and Brown more, and know they can only keep two of them past their rookie deals leaving Alonso as the odd man out. Throw in the reports the Bills were worried about Alonso's long term health issues with his knee, and it seems (to me at least) it was a chance to get something for Kiko before he bolted.

 

:beer:

 

You could be right about them worrying about Alonzo's health. I had thought he was given a clear bill of health, though. There are also rumors they will be taking a run at David Harris. Which leads me to one of my concerns about bringing in Ryan. While I trust he will build a fine defense, at what cost? Is he rebuilding what wasn't broken, to make it into "his defense"? If so, doesn't this take time, energy and cash away from fixing what really needed to be fixed? Adding McCoy certainly looks like a big positive move for the offense--but at a position that really wasn't broken and usually isn't that hard to fix/build.

 

Anyway, those were my knee-jerk reactions (that I'm not entirely past, it seems). But as I try to be a reasoned fan, I will let this thing play out and try not overreact to any one move. Let's see what the end product looks like.

 

Us old folks appreciated your thoughtfulness.

 

Come to think of it, that's why the font was big. I cut/pasted from a message I sent in from my business email. Since I have many REALLY old clients, I bumped my font in that account.

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My question is: Would Jake Locker, (or Matt Moore, Or Hoyer, or any of the other crappy guys going into FA), be less inclined to accept an offer from the Bills, knowing that Cassel has been added to the competition?

They'd be less inclined if they were even being considered at this point, but Cassel IS our Moore, Hoyer, etc.; the veteran presence of the group. All that's left if to draft a QB in the mid rounds.

 

The key is seeing how Manuel responds.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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