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I'm sorry, but I think we took a big step back


Virgil

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In brief, the Bills hire a new coach who guided the Jets to a record of 4-12 last year and everyone seems to be ecstatic.

 

The Bills lose their defensive coordinator (the truly bright spot on the team) who guided the defense to a top 5 finish and nobody seems bothered.

 

The Bills keep their GM, who I believe made one of the worst trades in Bills history, and everybody seems to be thrilled.

 

The Bills are on the verge of hiring an offensive coordinator from SF whose offenses ranked 25th and 24th over the last two seasons in points scored and everybody seems excited and optimistic.

 

If I was a fan of the Pats,Dolphins and Jets, I would be very pleased with the moves the Bills have made. Unfortunately, as a lifelong Bills fan, the moves made by the current owners and GM have been very questionable to be generous.

 

I guess Bills fans are so starved for success that any change is seen as positive even when the objective evidence contradicts their hopes and beliefs. Cognitive dissonance at its finest.

That is a extremely short sighted view....which is actually on par for you so.........

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The Bills keep their GM, who I believe made one of the worst trades in Bills history, and everybody seems to be thrilled.

Trading Lamonica to the Raiders was the worst. Trading Lynch to the Seahawks is looking worse and worse.

 

The Watkins trade up? Not even close. First Watkins is not a bust, far from it. He'll be a #1 WR in this league for years. The Bills swapped 1st rounders last year and give up a 1 and a 4 this year.

 

The moaning and groaning here about surrendering the 2015 1st rounder is based on the premise that the team somehow gave up a pick that could have been a 'franchise QB'. Fact is there's no slam dunk franchise QB is available in this coming draft at the 19th spot. There's two top prospects and after that the talent level drops to 3rd/4th round territory.

 

Then there's the hypothetical debate about how things would have turned out if they kept the 9th slot and drafted somebody else (i.e. Beckham). Anybody can back-test the draft, second guess any teams picks, and select top performers with the help of hindsight.

 

In total, I think Whaley's done more to add solid players to this roster through the draft, trades, free agency, and waiver pick ups, than any front office guy since things started rolling downhill after the 1999 season. Look at those drafts and the only one I see that had more hits than strikeouts was the 2001 draft. Is he perfect? No, but nobody is in this business. I expect Whaley and the front office will have another productive off season and that along with upgrades in the coaching ranks is going to propell this team forward.

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It's not about an offensive minded coach. It's about performance. Rex Ryan's performance recently has been terrible. He had two good years and that was about it. Unless you can tell me that he had no say whatsoever in player selection, he owns the production too.

 

As for the OC, you have to take the bad with the good. Looking at Kaep's first two years seems unfair without looking at his past year as well. As bad as Kaep was, does anyone think that EJ is any better?

 

We are giving him equal quality receivers, a worse QB, and a worse offensive line. With that, why would we expect a different result than what they did last year in San Fran?

 

So yeah, I just don't see a reason to be optimistic. Yes, I would have been happier promoting Schwartz and bringing in Trestman.

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It's not about an offensive minded coach. It's about performance. Rex Ryan's performance recently has been terrible. He had two good years and that was about it. Unless you can tell me that he had no say whatsoever in player selection, he owns the production too.

 

As for the OC, you have to take the bad with the good. Looking at Kaep's first two years seems unfair without looking at his past year as well. As bad as Kaep was, does anyone think that EJ is any better?

 

We are giving him equal quality receivers, a worse QB, and a worse offensive line. With that, why would we expect a different result than what they did last year in San Fran?

 

So yeah, I just don't see a reason to be optimistic. Yes, I would have been happier promoting Schwartz and bringing in Trestman.

LOL at your signature I guess?

I will be following the decisions made by the organization with optimism until further notice. I apologize for the inconvenience

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It's not about an offensive minded coach. It's about performance. Rex Ryan's performance recently has been terrible. He had two good years and that was about it. Unless you can tell me that he had no say whatsoever in player selection, he owns the production too.

 

As for the OC, you have to take the bad with the good. Looking at Kaep's first two years seems unfair without looking at his past year as well. As bad as Kaep was, does anyone think that EJ is any better?

 

We are giving him equal quality receivers, a worse QB, and a worse offensive line. With that, why would we expect a different result than what they did last year in San Fran?

 

So yeah, I just don't see a reason to be optimistic. Yes, I would have been happier promoting Schwartz and bringing in Trestman.

Your logic does not make walking around sense. You don't like RR because he was not that good at NYJ as he was 46-48. But you'd like Schwartz whose record in Detroit was 29-52, a .358 winning percentage. Double standard? I mean it's OK not to like the RR hire, but your thinking is baffling.

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Your logic does not make walking around sense. You don't like RR because he was not that good at NYJ as he was 46-48. But you'd like Schwartz whose record in Detroit was 29-52, a .358 winning percentage. Double standard? I mean it's OK not to like the RR hire, but your thinking is baffling.

Rex took over a 9-7 team. Schwartz took over the worst team in NFL history at 0-16. I don't if win percentage is an accurate comparison.

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Rex took over a 9-7 team. Schwartz took over the worst team in NFL history at 0-16. I don't if win percentage is an accurate comparison.

Then how do you measure coaches-- by height? If Schwartz was so good, why not any HC interviews after a great year as DC. I guess there are no facts anymore, just spin. Add to that Ryan got Sanchez as his QB instead of Favre in his first year, and Schwartz went from Orlovsky to Stafford and still went 2-14.

Edited by Casey D
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Then how do you measure coaches-- by height? If Schwartz was so good, why not any HC interviews after a great year as DC. I guess there are no facts anymore, just spin. Add to that Ryan got Sanchez as his QB instead of Favre in his first year, and Schwartz went from Orlovsky to Stafford and still went 2-14.

Didn't say Schwartz was "so good."

 

Do you think the only thing holding back the worst team in NFL history was the QB?

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Bring the tears and the doom !

 

Lol at all of you, keep acting like you know how this will play out.

 

Rex had them within a play of beating the pats twice and the packers with ole geno smith and half a wideout on the roster.

 

All hail rex ! Kool aid even tastes great in the winter. Woooooo

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Didn't say Schwartz was "so good."

 

Do you think the only thing holding back the worst team in NFL history was the QB?

I don't really understand your point then. If all you are saying is that a team's record is not the only reflection on how well a coach is doing, I think that is obviously true. If you are saying that JS's record in Detroit was not his fault completely, OK, so what. He was there five years and never did much-- the OP's point was that he'd rather have Schwartz than RR because RR did not do much in NY. That makes no sense.

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I don't really understand your point then. If all you are saying is that a team's record is not the only reflection on how well a coach is doing, I think that is obviously true. If you are saying that JS's record in Detroit was not his fault completely, OK, so what. He was there five years and never did much-- the OP's point was that he'd rather have Schwartz than RR because RR did not do much in NY. That makes no sense.

That's exactly what I'm saying.

 

You said this. You don't like RR because he was not that good at NYJ as he was 46-48. But you'd like Schwartz whose record in Detroit was 29-52, a .358 winning percentage.

 

I just said comparing winning percentages ignores context a little bit and it may not be fair. Because you compared winning percentages.

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That's exactly what I'm saying.

 

You said this. You don't like RR because he was not that good at NYJ as he was 46-48. But you'd like Schwartz whose record in Detroit was 29-52, a .358 winning percentage.

 

I just said comparing winning percentages ignores context a little bit and it may not be fair. Because you compared winning percentages.

OK-- but then your implication is that when adjusting for these other factors, JS's record in Detroit was somehow better than RR's in NY, because the OP likes JS but not RR based on RR's performance in NY. If that is your suggestion, I don't agree. I don't think JS's record as a head coach is good even accounting for circumstances as you suggest. And Ryan went to two AFC championship games, and Schwartz had one one and done playoff exeperience. I agree record is not the only thing--but it is the main thing in pro sports--but that seems like a pimple on a dog's as@, not a very meaningful data point in comparing RR and JS.

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Now that it's (seemingly) official that Schwartz is out, I look at the hire this way:

 

We have the same strengths and weaknesses on the roster we had when Marrone and Schwartz were in charge of the O and D respectively, only now we have a better defensive mind running the show which is the strength of the team. Any new offensive scheme is going to be an upgrade over what Marrone was running, so even though we're still left with the same questions we had with Marrone (QB, OL, offensive identity) Rex >>> Marrone/Schwartz.

 

Time will tell, but I think the hire was the safest way to go, and could end up being a hit.

 

Let's see what Whaley does in the off season to address the holes, I have a feeling they're going to make some big moves.

Better defensive mind Ha,ha,ha. Yeah they looked REAL GOOD against us. Well everybody the last few years.

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Question - who would you rather have? The only person I could see bringing would bowles. All the other coordinators have tremendous talent to work with and all would be 1st year head coaches. Difficult for 1st year guys to be successful with teams that are not already contendors.

 

Also - plenty of coaches who have been successful the second or even third time around - Carrol, Belacheat, Coughlin.

 

Why don't we hold judgement until next year at this time and see what we have.

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Is it not fair to say that the poster who originally said he'd be happier with Schwartz might have been thinking that the continuity of staying with someone inside the organisation after a winning season was more of an advantage than a Head Coach with a marginally better track record?

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Rain on the parade....

 

Rex also took the Jets to the championship game twice. He also had a GM that ran the talent into the ground.

 

Not making excuses for him as the situation Buffalo is a challenge.

 

I was just reading about Rex. After the early success with 9-7 and 11-5 seasons with wildcard berths and getting to the AFC Championship, the Jets began the 2011 season (Rex's third) with a 2-3 record leading to discontent within their clubhouse. Apparently, they deviated from the run heavy philosophy and began to pass more and the offense struggled. Hopefully he learned from this.

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In 2009 Rex Ryan inherited a pretty good team from Eric Mangini that already had a a bunch of good players on both sides of the ball, a solid O line as DaBrick, and Mangold were drafted in 2006 under Mangini.Then the next year it was under Mangini that Darrelle Revis was drafted by the Jets in 2007. Mangini was fired by the Jets after taking them to a 9-7 finish in 2008.

 

That first season for Rex Ryan with the Jets in 2009 they only drafted 3 players in that years draft, and they were all offensive In QB Sanchez, RB Shonn Greene, and OG Matt Slauson . So that #1 overall defense came from previous drafts. In his first season he drafted Mark Sanchez, and went to the conference championship with a record of 9-7 as a wildcard. The managed that by pounding the rock, and playing great defense. The Jets did the same the very next year at 10-6, and went to the conference championship.

 

For whatever reason the Jets got away from what made them a formidable team in pounding the rock, as they kept asking the QB to throw more while they ran less. **Then they went 6-10 in 2012. **They went 8-8 in 2013. They went 4-12 in 2014. That's right, 4-12 in 2014.

 

The more important stat is that whatever Ryan was doing the first two years he lost his vision, and stopped doing. To those fans who think that Rex Ryan will now give the New England Patriots / Bill Belichick- Tom Brady fits. Rex Ryan's Jets went 1-7 against New England the last four years.

 

2014 0-2

 

2013 1-1

 

2012 0-2

 

2011 0-2

 

2010 2-1 * 2-1 when the Jets beat the Pariots in a wildcard game 28-21

2009 1-1 The final result is 4 wins vs 9 losses against the Patriots in six years.

 

Bottom line: Rex Ryan lost his vision as to what was working that even got him to the playoffs the first two years, and that was pounding the rock and playing great defense. Those first two years the Jets ran the ball more then they threw it, and the next four threw more then they ran. Don't blame this all on his personnel either because his decline started with Mike Tannenbaun as GM, and only got worse under Idzik. The more they tried to force Mark Sanchez to throw the worse they looked, and ultimately got rid of him after 2012 because the Jets no longer had confidence in his abilities as an NFL QB.

 

Now under Chip Kelly, (who I think is an offensive genius) has Sanchez throwing more then his team is running it, and managed to get a 4-4 record out of Mr Buttfumble. This doesn't mean that Sanchez can come to Buffalo and find success.

 

BTW, The John Harbaugh Baltimore Ravens have had the key to beating Bill Belichicks Patriots 2009 1-1, and that win was in the playoffs.In 2012 he went 2-0 to win the super bowl. He has an overall 3-5 record against the Patriots

Edited by FeartheLosing
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Is it not fair to say that the poster who originally said he'd be happier with Schwartz might have been thinking that the continuity of staying with someone inside the organisation after a winning season was more of an advantage than a Head Coach with a marginally better track record?

Sure. The one sure thing at TBD is that players and coaches come and go for the Bills, and someone is unhappy if there are changes and some are unhappy if there are not changes. I like continuity too, but that went out the door with the Pegulas coming in and Marrone checking out. I liked JS, but I think it is hard to believe that his coaching skill had more to do with the success of the defense than the talent. Pettine's defense was good too. So as to defense, I think continuity is overated, and we need the best head coach we could get. On that scale, RR is viewed generally as being a much better head coach than JS. Maybe that's unfair, but it is reality. If we had made JS head coach, some people would have been happy, but lots more would have said we hired a failed retread. It's the way of TBD.

In 2009 Rex Ryan inherited a pretty good team from Eric Mangini that already had a a bunch of good players on both sides of the ball, a solid O line as DaBrick, and Mangold were drafted in 2006 under Mangini. Then the next year it was under Mangini that Darrelle Revis was drafted by the Jets in 2007. Mangini was fired by the Jets after taking them to a 9-7 finish in 2008.

 

That first season for Rex Ryan with the Jets in 2009 they only drafted 3 players in that years draft, and they were all offensive In QB Sanchez, RB Shonn Greene, and OG Matt Slauson . So that #1 overall defense came from previous drafts. In his first season he drafted Mark Sanchez, and went to the conference championship with a record of 9-7 as a wildcard. The managed that by pounding the rock, and playing great defense. The Jets did the same the very next year at 10-6, and went to the conference championship.

 

For whatever reason the Jets got away from what made them a formidable team in pounding the rock, as they kept asking the QB to throw more while they ran less. Then they went 8-8 in 2012. They went 6-10 in 2013. They went 4-12 in 2014. That's right, 4-12 in 2014.

 

The more important stat is that whatever Ryan was doing the first two years he lost his vision, and stopped doing. To those fans who think that Rex Ryan will now give the New England Patriots / Bill Belichick- Tom Brady fits. Rex Ryan's Jets went 1-7 against New England the last four years.

 

2014 0-2

 

2013 1-1

 

2012 0-2

 

2011 0-2

 

2010 2-1 * 2-1 when the Jets beat the Pariots in a wildcard game 28-21

2009 1-1 The final result is 4 wins vs 9 losses against the Patriots in six years.

 

Bottom line: Rex Ryan lost his vision as to what was working that even got him to the playoffs the first two years, and that was pounding the rock and playing great defense. Those first two years the Jets ran the ball more then they threw it, and the next four threw more then they ran. Don't blame this all on his personnel either because his decline started with Mike Tannenbaun as GM, and only got worse under Idzik. The more they tried to force Mark Sanchez to throw the worse they looked, and ultimately got rid of him after 2012 because the Jets no longer had confidence in his abilities as an NFL QB.

 

Now under Chip Kelly, (who I think is an offensive genius) has Sanchez throwing more then his team is running it, and managed to get a 4-4 record out of Mr Buttfumble. This doesn't mean that Sanchez can come to Buffalo and find success.

 

BTW, The John Harbaugh Baltimore Ravens have had the key to beating Bill Belichicks Patriots 2009 1-1, and that win was in the playoffs.In 2012 he went 2-0 to win the super bowl. He has an overall 3-5 record against the Patriots

Do you really believe this convoluted BS about losing his vision. Pure sophistry.

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Neither actually. I would have liked to have seen a team president hired for the football side, and then let him make the decision.

 

Now we are caught up in the very same situation that has plagued the team for 50+ years with the owner making decisions (or in the loop with Whaley, Brandon). Considering the interview was at the owners house in Boca...Same Stuff, different city.

 

 

If Bill Polian had been hired he stated he would have needed to make changes to the scouting dept, and probably brought in ex Charger GM AJ Smith who is a senior executive with the Washington Redskins. What does that tell you about the current situation with the Bills FO?

 

I don't see how a man (Ryan) who is literally clueless about the offense / QB's helps in any way with the area of the team desperately needing help. Greg Roman had arguably the very best O line in the game in San Fran, and those players we all very good run blockers. Now fast forward to the Buffalo Bills with arguably the very worst O line in the NFL that has great difficulty in run blocking. Exactly how does the line get improved when the man in charge only made things worse for two years now.

 

This entire scenario is exceedingly frustrating to me.

 

 

tells me Polian would have filled the bills front office with his cronies

 

Mike McCarthy of the beloved packers came to green bay from the 49ers where he was offensive coordinator. Did not interview anywhere else and their offense was ranked 30th what's that say about prior success etc?

Edited by CardinalScotts
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OK-- but then your implication is that when adjusting for these other factors, JS's record in Detroit was somehow better than RR's in NY, because the OP likes JS but not RR based on RR's performance in NY. If that is your suggestion, I don't agree. I don't think JS's record as a head coach is good even accounting for circumstances as you suggest. And Ryan went to two AFC championship games, and Schwartz had one one and done playoff exeperience. I agree record is not the only thing--but it is the main thing in pro sports--but that seems like a pimple on a dog's as@, not a very meaningful data point in comparing RR and JS.

I just think the winning percentage comparison is skin deep at best.

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To those that think that because the Bills hired a guy who went to 2x AFC championship games as a Wildcard are not understanding that Rex Ryan doesn't have the offensive players needed to have the kind of success he had in way back in 2009-2010.

 

Just want to add that most fans that are happy about the hiring of Ryan are not understanding he LOST his vision of what made those first two years in NY successful.

 

Then, I highly doubt the 2015 Buffalo Bills are going to achieve any kind of ground and pound attack with one of the very worst offensive lines in the NFL. Doug Marrone tried it in 2013 by leading the NFL in rushing attempts, and being #2 in rushing overall. All he managed to do was gain a lot of yards while going 6-10, and the O line was better in 2013. It was way better in 2012, and got worse because they never adequately replaced LG Andy Levitre

 

Now guess what? Here it is going on three years and this GM still hasn't replaced Andy Levitre with anyone near his talent level, and Andy wasn't that good a run blocker.

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The more important stat is that whatever Ryan was doing the first two years he lost his vision, and stopped doing. To those fans who think that Rex Ryan will now give the New England Patriots / Bill Belichick- Tom Brady fits. Rex Ryan's Jets went 1-7 against New England the last four years.

 

2014 0-2

 

2013 1-1

 

2012 0-2

 

2011 0-2

 

2010 2-1 * 2-1 when the Jets beat the Pariots in a wildcard game 28-21

2009 1-1 The final result is 4 wins vs 9 losses against the Patriots in six years.

 

Bottom line: Rex Ryan lost his vision as to what was working that even got him to the playoffs the first two years, and that was pounding the rock and playing great defense. Those first two years the Jets ran the ball more then they threw it, and the next four threw more then they ran. Don't blame this all on his personnel either because his decline started with Mike Tannenbaun as GM, and only got worse under Idzik. The more they tried to force Mark Sanchez to throw the worse they looked, and ultimately got rid of him after 2012 because the Jets no longer had confidence in his abilities as an NFL QB.

 

Now under Chip Kelly, (who I think is an offensive genius) has Sanchez throwing more then his team is running it, and managed to get a 4-4 record out of Mr Buttfumble. This doesn't mean that Sanchez can come to Buffalo and find success.

 

BTW, The John Harbaugh Baltimore Ravens have had the key to beating Bill Belichicks Patriots 2009 1-1, and that win was in the playoffs.In 2012 he went 2-0 to win the super bowl. He has an overall 3-5 record against the Patriots

So, Let me get this straight: Harbaugh is a genius because he has a .38 winning percentage (3-5) against the Patriots with 2 playoff wins in Foxboro, while Ryan is a failure because he has a .31 winning percentage (4-9) against the Patriots with one playoff win in Foxboro?

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OK-- but then your implication is that when adjusting for these other factors, JS's record in Detroit was somehow better than RR's in NY, because the OP likes JS but not RR based on RR's performance in NY. If that is your suggestion, I don't agree. I don't think JS's record as a head coach is good even accounting for circumstances as you suggest. And Ryan went to two AFC championship games, and Schwartz had one one and done playoff exeperience. I agree record is not the only thing--but it is the main thing in pro sports--but that seems like a pimple on a dog's as@, not a very meaningful data point in comparing RR and JS.

You're projecting. I think winning percentage is skin deep analysis in this case. There is no implication about who is better.

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What is it with the mentality of this board that ignores facts because they want to believe their shiny new toy is the best in the playground. I posted facts, now deal with them.


Do you really believe this convoluted BS about losing his vision. Pure sophistry.

Oh, yea. I tried to trick you with all those facts. :lol:

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What is it with the mentality of this board that ignores facts because they want to believe their shiny new toy is the best in the playground. I posted facts, now deal with them.

Oh, yea. I tried to trick you with all those facts. :lol:

 

 

You did get your facts slightly wrong in terms of record. It was 8-8 in 2011, 6-10 in 2012, 8-8 in 2013 (his best coaching job in my mind) and then 4-12 in 2014.

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Great, more snarky responses with no intelligence behind them.

 

If the Bills win 10 games next year will you go away....forever? Once you're off the wagon you can't get back on. If you do that, you should be a Pats* fan. Just looking at your avatar tells me all I need to know what kind of Bills fan you are. Edited by Not Again
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You did get your facts slightly wrong in terms of record. It was 8-8 in 2011, 6-10 in 2012, 8-8 in 2013 (his best coaching job in my mind) and then 4-12 in 2014.

Thanks for pointing that out. I corrected the final results of those two years, and it really didn't have any bearing on whats transpired with his teams over the last four seasons in terms of what made Ryan successful hist first two years.

 

His best coaching job for me was that #1 overall defense in 2009, and they were a terror that season. Although Manning ripped his defense for 377 yards, and 3 TD's in the AFC Championship game. Pierre Garcon had 151 yards, Austin Collie had 123 yards. Revis must have been covering Reggie Wayne in that game.

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We took a big fat step back. Send in the clowns. We had a great 4-3 defense and now we have to retool the 'D' when the offensive offense should be the main focus. Bad hire... Very bad hire

 

Why do we keep revisiting old untruths?

 

While Schwartz liked the 4-3 as his base defense, he was hardly married to it. Rex is not a conventional 3-4 guy. Instead he employs multiple fronts - as do most DCs.

 

Apparently because we'll use 4 down linemen somewhat less often than we did the year before, we'll be overhauling the defense?

 

Most of our players are already familiar with Rex's scheme because they learned the essentials under Pettine.

Another considerations is that rex has one of the most successful records in the NFL running defenses. His performance on D over the years has been better than Schwartz's. Since when is upgrading a coach a bad thing?

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Your logic does not make walking around sense. You don't like RR because he was not that good at NYJ as he was 46-48. But you'd like Schwartz whose record in Detroit was 29-52, a .358 winning percentage. Double standard? I mean it's OK not to like the RR hire, but your thinking is baffling.

He's talking in circles.

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I see all of this excitement and optimism but I just can't join in. And for the most part, I agree with most of the ESPN commentators when they talk about this change. I think we made a poor decision based upon our situation and are essentially throwing away any progress we made last year.

 

When I think about how the season ended and where we were at in terms of progression:

  • Best record in over a decade
  • Best defense in over a decade
  • Year two of consistency
  • Declining Offense with no answer at QB

 

Based off of that, what did we improve?

 

  • We brought in a defensive minded coach who runs a completely different scheme. A coach that ran a defense that made Kyle Orton look like Aaron Rodgers. I mean, we shredded them TWICE. A defense that was terrible against the run. Also, in making this change, we are going back to playing people out of position and reducing players like Hughes to situational pass rushers
    • This is speculation, but I'm also afraid that we are going to have to waste FA money and draft picks to bring in people to fit this scheme.
  • Offensively, we brought in an offensive coordinator who had Kaep regress under his watch. And sorry, but Kaep is better than EJ. They were terrible in the passing game with legit receivers and a Pro-Bowl TE. I get that they played elite defenses, but this is the NFL and no one is a cake walk. He produces a running game, but is based upon an offensive line that probably won't be able to be reproduced here with our talent for a little while.

End of the day, while personnel is a big factor, scheme and coaching is too. When the season ended, would you have wanted the San Fran offense and the Jets defense to replace our team? I would say no 10 times out of 10.

 

I get it. Fresh start, new players to them. But these are big leaps of faith that we can have the running game being promised and that the final 3 years of Rex's coaching career were the anomaly compared to his first 3 years as a head coach.

 

Again, I want to be optimistic but we basically gutted our strength and reinforced our weakness.

 

Not sure our strength was gutted, if anything at least, the defense won't lose a step. At best, it'll rise to the #1 defense in the league. The attention the Bills will get from Ryan alone is nice, but I'm reserving judgment on what the Bills do in the offseason and who they go after. If it's a ground and pound offense, the first question is who will be our QB going forward.

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