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I'm hoping we bottom out this year: 0-16. Here's why.


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This organization is like the tree in your backyard that's dying. Oh sure, there are some branches with some green leaves on it, but by and large it's dead. You know it's dead, and the only thing to do is call a tree guy to come cut it down, chip it up, grind the stump, and give you the bill for it.

 

That's the Bills for you right there--oh sure, Sammy Watkins may be great, Dareus is a pro bowler, Spiller has looked good in places... there's some healthy young, green leaf growth right there. But the trunk? Dead. And before you jump down my throat and say "Is this another Kiko post? lol" consider the following--there was a point during the offseason (before the Byrd negotiations) where Marrone let it leak that there is a rift between the bean counters and the football guys. Well, I'll lump them all together: everyone must go.

 

See, here's the thing: I may be the biggest optimist on here. When the Bills are there usual 4-8, I'm the one on ESPN.com's playoff calculator figuring out just how easy it will be for the Bills to steal the 6 seed. I'm the one staying up to watch the Chargers/Bengals games in week 15, because it impacts the chances of the Bills getting a wild-card at 7-9. But not this year.

 

On offense: we lost our best receiver. Yes, our best receiver. I dont care about his antics, or what you think a true number 1 receiver should look like. It doesn't matter--Stevie Johnson was our biggest producer on offense over the last 3 years, and he's gone. Who will replace him? It's a gamble, but for whatever reason, Whaley saw fit to ship out our most productive offensive weapon. Our best running back is now a year older and 30 is long-since faded out of his rear-view mirror. We are, at this point in time, worse on offense. Oh sure, there's potential to be better, but for now, we are worse.

 

On defense: our coordinator, gone. our best safety, gone. our best linebacker, done for the season. our best d-lineman, in trouble with the law. this is a problem. The strength of our 5-11 unit is now weaker. this is undeniable. do not try to tell me that i am a glass half empty person, this point is irrefutable: our defense is weaker.

 

special teams: an absolute disaster last season, remains largely intact. Same coaching. this is also a problem.

 

And most importantly (as everyone will note) our quarterback, because this is what our season hinges on, right?: missed too many games to injury last season, a major major problem that Bills fans seem to be in denial about. 3 knee injuries in one season? THREE KNEE INJURIES IN ONE SEASON? If that happened to Brady, we would be dancing in the street. But in Buffalo? That's cause for optimism because he "hasn't had a full season to show us what he can do yet!" Well, in the limited time he did have to show us what he could do, he was middling. a .500 qb at best, who looks like he needs to be surrounded by an extremely talented cast to succeed. He is not a game changer, he is not elite, he can not put this team on his back and take us to the Super Bowl. It's not happening, and in your heart, you know that's true.

 

So a 5-11 team (please note the 1 game regression from Gailey's teams--we got worse, not better) who is weaker across the board, is going to turn it around this year? What, may I ask, in the last 15 years, has given you ANY indication whatsoever, that that is going to happen? It isnt. But for the first time ever, this is now a good thing. A new owner will inherit this train wreck. And after another typical, awful 4-12 Bills train wreck, there will finally be some accountability.

 

And it starts right with the golden boy GM, because our rebuild will have to be put off ANOTHER year--with no first round draft pick in next years selection meeting, we suddenly will be the most pathetic franchise in the NFL. If we truly, truly bottom out, (and im talking 0-16 here folks) that should be all the impetus that is needed to drop an a-bomb at one bills drive and clean house. everyone: from russ to the ball boys.

 

Sorry to piss in your coffee this morning, but I've been thinking about this a lot since OTA's. But ask yourself this: are the pieces in place for this team to win a super bowl? Do you think EJ Manuel can be a Super Bowl winning quarterback? Ask yourself that. Don't just hit reply and tell me the sky isn't falling: ask yourself if you can picture EJ Manuel hoisting the lombardi trophy. If you're older than a 4th grader, the answer is likely "no."

 

So open your mind. Let's be happy when Pegula takes over ownership, and then let's just enjoy this season for what it is: the curtain call for Bills football as we've known it for 2 decades. Yes, it's going to be painful to watch us struggle this year, and yes it's going to be even worse next offseason knowing we don't have a first round pick, but good times are on the horizon.

 

One of the most idiotic posts I've ever read on this site

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I think you hit the wrong URL. The tank crowd is at the sister site and you may find a more receptive audience over there.

 

I think most people on this site want the team to win more games than it loses, by a lot.

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I disagree about talent. I think this team is, in fact, a lot more talented than Bills teams of the past. And how competitive were they really? They finished 6-10 and four of those ten losses were one-sided. Every crappy team in the NFL has close losses that they lament..."if we had only done so and so.."

 

They lacked a #1 WR, a top 20 TE, and had some weak points along the OL...those are real deficiencies that can hold an offense back, especially when combined with a rookie QB that missed half the pre-season and another 6 weeks in the regular season and was never healthy. All things considered I think they competed well.

 

I remember him mindlessly challenging a fumble in week one that the Patriots recovered anyway. I remember him sounding completely lost in post-game press conferences. I remember him picking a fight with the media early in training camp when he sounded completely out to lunch. He kept his buddy Crossman as the special teams coach despite the years of incompetence on his resume. Do any or all of these things make him a bad coach? Not necessarily, but they don't point to him being a good one either. He's known as an offensive-minded coach - a former lineman - and this offense was not designed to take advantage of the players' strengths. All of that blame gets put on Hackett, yet nobody mentions Marrone. The defense was the strong point of the team and by all accounts, he did not have nearly as much say on that side of the ball as he did on the offense.

 

His challenge calls need improvement--I agree. As for post game press conferences and media interaction, it's way overblown. Most coaches don't care a lick for how their sound bites come off; they're there to coach.

 

I'll also ask what part of the offense wasn't designed to take advantage of what they could do well? They ran the ball more than 30 other teams in the league--and running is what they did best. Was their playbook limited? Yes, in part due to the QB issue again. I expect it'll be expanded this year, don't you?

 

I'll also point out that losses against NE (week 1), Atlanta, and Cleveland could easily be pinned on the defense's inability to stop the opponent when it mattered.

 

Unfortunately, a couple of years down the road, we will see that he is no better, and probably worse, than Gailey, Jauron, Mularkey, Williams.

 

I'm not convinced of that at all, and I'm even less convinced it should be stated as a foregone conclusions here.

 

As for the Watkins trade, its no reflection on Watkins the player. I just think that a team in the Bills position should not be trading a first round pick for a wide receiver, no matter how good he is. A QB sure. But a superstar receiver does not get this team from 6-10 to 11-5 this year, even if his name is Calvin Johnson (who, incidentally was part of an 0-16 team). If the Bills were a perennial contender, and the pick was going to be in the 20s, then yes, I could see making this move. But my guess is, they will be picking in the top 10 again next year, and many people will change their tune then. It was a reckless trade, not gutsy.

 

You seem to want to separate pick from player, and that seems short-sighted. The quality of the pick will be determined by Watkins' performance, not by arbitrary positional value assessments. This team needed a #1 passing target, and they went and got one. They weren't going to draft one of these QBs after picking EJ, so their goal was to get the best player they could get...they did. It seems your labeling it as reckless has more to do with what they gave up than it does the positional value of the player--if that's the case, isn't it prudent to wait and see (a) what they actually gave up (i.e. where the pick is) and (b) how the player performs before you label it so?

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So the entire post is "I'm an optimist, and I think we suck, so you should all agree with my opinions or you're 4th graders"?

 

No, the offense isn't worse. Stevie Johnson wasn't the most productive passing target on the team last year; that was Chandler. It's also short-sighted to say we're worse on offense when we've added Watkins, Bryce Brown, and Anthony Dixon and lost only Johnson (who pretty much any Bills' fan could tell didn't have very good chemistry with Manuel). I also noticed that you conveniently ignored the 4 offensive linemen the team added this off-season.

 

No, the defense isn't worse. The run D was historically bad, and the team added one of (if not the) best run-stopping LBs in football. Also, Mario Williams is the team's best DLmen, not Dareus. They drafted Preston Brown, Ross Cockrell, and Randell Johnson. They also added Corey Graham and are likely to have Gilmore back at full speed. To say the defense is worse is an assumption, not an undeniable truth as you claim. Jim Schwartz is a very sharp football mind, and had strong defensive success at times in Tennessee.

 

No, the ST unit isn't the same. The team added specific ST pieces in Dixon and Graham, and should get a boost from the increase in overall team depth.

 

As to EJ, nobody knows whether or not he's a franchise guy...all I can tell you is that it would be irrefutably ignorant for someone to gauge their opinion based on whether or not they can picture a guy lifting a piece of metal; it would be even greater folly to suggest anyone that can do so is juvenile or unintelligent.

 

So open your mind. Let's be happy IF Pegula takes ownership (it's not a given), and then let's just enjoy this season for what it is: Buffalo Bills football. No, you have no idea if it'll be painful or fun, a struggle or a success, or whether things will get significantly better this season or next, but I agree that good times are on the horizon.

 

> So the entire post is "I'm an optimist, and I think we suck, so you should all agree with my opinions or you're 4th graders"?

 

That is a blatant mischaracterization of the OP.

 

> No, the offense isn't worse.

 

You're probably right. Young WRs like Woods will have another year of experience. That will help; as will the new offensive linemen you noted, and the addition of Watkins.

 

> To say the defense is worse is an assumption, not an undeniable truth as you claim.

 

That may be, but Pettine did a lot with a little. My impression of Schwartz is that he doesn't have Pettine's level of creativity or innovation. Schwartz's defenses look good when all the pieces are just so. But nothing about his track record suggests he has Pettine's gift for using lemons to make lemonade.

 

> As to EJ, nobody knows whether or not he's a franchise guy...

 

Perhaps. But nothing about his play in college suggested he should have been taken in the first two rounds. When you reach for a third round QB in the first round, you don't then have a guy who's as likely to succeed as any other first round QB.

 

> all I can tell you is that it would be irrefutably ignorant for someone to gauge their opinion based on whether or not they can picture a guy lifting a piece of metal

 

If you read the book Blink by Malcolm Gladwell, you might change your view about this.

 

The OP is 100% right about the need to get rid of the bean counters. Littmann and Overdorf have been harming this franchise for decades. I think he's also right about the need to get rid of Marrone and his coaching staff. The one creative, innovative part of that coaching staff was Pettine; and Pettine is now in Cleveland. And--I hate to say this--but he's probably also right about the need to get rid of the front office. Signing the worst offensive lineman of the Rams to a multi-year, solid starter money contract was a head-scratching move. The kind of move Marv the GM would have made. Going all-in on EJ--as Whaley did this past draft--is the kind of mistake which gets you fired.

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No fan wants their team to truly go 0-16.

Agreed, that would be beyond brutal. If this team doesn't show any significant improvement on the field this year though, I do hope the new ownership has enough sense to clean out all of Ralph's trash once-and-for all. In that respect, I can agree with the OP... but I'd much rather see them stay due to the Bills finally turning the corner on the field.
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Wow. Kiko goes down and people are asking for 0-16.

 

I didn't even read most of your post. I'm assuming most didn't after the first few words. Hope you enjoyed wasting like 30 minutes of your time putting that all together.

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Facts:

 

You can't grow a tree if you keep cutting it down.

 

The salary cap dictates what you can spend on the roster. The bills have not dramatically underspent that so accusations of bean counters impacting the roster is baseless

 

Whaley and Marrone have had exactly one full season to prove their mettle.

 

Only three Super Bowl winning QBs had a statistically better rookie year than EJ manual...EVER

 

EJ has the thirteenth best rookie QB rating in nfl history.

 

The bills were 6-10 last year not 5-11

 

Stevie was not the most productive WR last year

 

Blowing up the front office is no guarantee for success

 

Only 1 team has ever gone 0-16 and subsequently took 3 seasons afterwards to become a winning team.

 

Of 7 rookie coaches last year only 2 made playoffs.

 

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> So the entire post is "I'm an optimist, and I think we suck, so you should all agree with my opinions or you're 4th graders"?

 

That is a blatant mischaracterization of the OP.

 

 

No, it isn't. If you'd like to re-read it and offer your own summary feel free.

 

> No, the offense isn't worse.

 

You're probably right. Young WRs like Woods will have another year of experience. That will help; as will the new offensive linemen you noted, and the addition of Watkins.

 

Don't forget Mike Williams and the two RBs

 

> To say the defense is worse is an assumption, not an undeniable truth as you claim.

 

That may be, but Pettine did a lot with a little. My impression of Schwartz is that he doesn't have Pettine's level of creativity or innovation. Schwartz's defenses look good when all the pieces are just so. But nothing about his track record suggests he has Pettine's gift for using lemons to make lemonade.

 

I can't agree with "a lot with a little". They had one of the 3 most talented DLs in football (STL and SEA are the others IMO), a former 1st round pick at OLB, Kiko at MLB, 2 first-round starting CBs, an all-pro FS, and an up-and-coming SS. I hardly see how this qualifies as "lemons to make lemonade".

 

As to Schwartz, look at the rosters of his top-10 defenses in Tennessee, we aren't talking about anywhere near the level of talent on this defense:

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/oti/2002.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/oti/2007.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/oti/2008.htm

 

> As to EJ, nobody knows whether or not he's a franchise guy...

 

Perhaps. But nothing about his play in college suggested he should have been taken in the first two rounds. When you reach for a third round QB in the first round, you don't then have a guy who's as likely to succeed as any other first round QB.

 

I'm sorry, but 4-0 in Bowl games and a YPA and QB rating that was better than Peyton Manning coming out of Tennessee disagrees with that assessment. You can call him a 3rd round QB, but you're wrong. At least one (I believe two though) other teams said they were going to take him in the 1st round.

 

If you read the book Blink by Malcolm Gladwell, you might change your view about this.

 

I've read several of Gladwell's books (Tipping Point is easily my favorite), and while I appreciate your desire to draw conclusions about my thought process without ever asking any questions, it just seems ill-advised since you don't know me.

 

The OP is 100% right about the need to get rid of the bean counters. Littmann and Overdorf have been harming this franchise for decades. I think he's also right about the need to get rid of Marrone and his coaching staff. The one creative, innovative part of that coaching staff was Pettine; and Pettine is now in Cleveland. And--I hate to say this--but he's probably also right about the need to get rid of the front office. Signing the worst offensive lineman of the Rams to a multi-year, solid starter money contract was a head-scratching move. The kind of move Marv the GM would have made. Going all-in on EJ--as Whaley did this past draft--is the kind of mistake which gets you fired.

 

You assume too much and know too little. Littman has zero control over football, and hasn't since Russ took over (you can choose to believe me about that or not; it's true). And as I said to the other poster, why don't we wait and see what the offense looks like with the full playbook before drawing any conclusions?

 

Also, if you consider what Chris Williams signed for--$5.5M guaranteed over 4 years--to be solid starter money, well, we fall very far apart on this point. I'd also caution about labeling him the worst OLmen on the Rams; he actually was quite good in the run game; pass blocking wasn't his best though.

 

Lastly, I'm interested in hearing what this draft has to do with EJ...is it your opinion that Whaley should've drafted another QB early, or are you more worried about the "what do we do next year if EJ fails" scenario?

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I wish it were possible to block users like the one who posted this so that any future post would be unavailable to view. What a waste of time that was!

 

You can selectively block individuals if you choose to do so. Drop down top right tied to your username then settings then ignore preferences.

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Facts:

 

You can't grow a tree if you keep cutting it down.

 

The salary cap dictates what you can spend on the roster. The bills have not dramatically underspent that so accusations of bean counters impacting the roster is baseless

 

Whaley and Marrone have had exactly one full season to prove their mettle.

 

Only three Super Bowl winning QBs had a statistically better rookie year than EJ manual...EVER

 

EJ has the thirteenth best rookie QB rating in nfl history.

 

The bills were 6-10 last year not 5-11

 

Stevie was not the most productive WR last year

 

Blowing up the front office is no guarantee for success

 

Only 1 team has ever gone 0-16 and subsequently took 3 seasons afterwards to become a winning team.

 

Of 7 rookie coaches last year only 2 made playoffs.

 

Not that I disagree with any aspect of your post, I just wanted to say that I think the "bean counter" people are talking more about what we are willing to pay for top end Personnel and Coaching staff than the roster. Or maybe I'm wrong, but that was always my impression (at least the ones that know what they are talking about).

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Not that I disagree with any aspect of your post, I just wanted to say that I think the "bean counter" people are talking more about what we are willing to pay for top end Personnel and Coaching staff than the roster. Or maybe I'm wrong, but that was always my impression (at least the ones that know what they are talking about).

 

That may be what they mean, but it's still incorrect. The team tried to hire Mike Shanahan; he passed. They tried to hire Bill Cowher; he passed. They tried to hire Chip Kelly; he passed.

 

It's never been an issue of spending.

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