I'm hoping we bottom out this year: 0-16. Here's why.

[Orton's Arm]

Ah, no. That is incorrect.

 

Jerry Jones bought the team in February of 1989, and fired Tom Landry soon after. The Cowboys went 1-15 in 1989 under the direction of HC Jimmy Johnson.

 

 

 

Landry's last season as HC was 1988, and the Cowboys went 3-13.

In 1987, the Cowboys went 7-8 (strike year, replacement players).

In 1986, the Cowboys went 7-9.

He was good as gone.

 

While I think I get the point you are trying to make, this is a mischaracterization. The Bills did not get "stuck" with Whitner. They chose him. They could have just as easily chose Ngata.

The fact the Bills chose Whitner over Ngata is more of a reflection of just how terrible Levy/Jauron were, and not draft position.

IMHO, the Bills could have just as easily had the first overall pick, and Levy/Jauron would still have found a way to !@#$ it up (i.e. They probaly still would have drafted Whitner, and reference Maybin).

 

 

 

As you said, Lewis played better than EJ "statistically", but my eyes tell me there is nothing about his play that suggests he is anything more than a backup at best.My eyes tell me EJ has a higher potential. He may never become a "great" QB, but I do think he will better than Thad.

 

> Landry's last season as HC was 1988, and the Cowboys went 3-13.

 

Thanks for the correction.

 

> IMHO, the Bills could have just as easily had the first overall pick, and Levy/Jauron would still have found a way to !@#$ it up

 

It's hard to argue with that. It could be argued that the first overall pick matters more when you have a good GM. Polian has had the first overall pick three times in his career. Those three picks resulted in Bruce Smith, Kerry Collins, and Peyton Manning. Smith and Manning are the two best football players Polian ever drafted.

 

> As you said, Lewis played better than EJ "statistically", but my eyes tell me there is nothing about his play that suggests he is anything more than a backup at best.

 

I agree with your characterization of Thad Lewis. My eyes tell me he's a backup also--albeit a solid backup.

 

> My eyes tell me EJ has a higher potential.

 

Sometimes a QB will make a very good play here and there. It's easy to see something like that and think to yourself, this guy has the potential to be great. He just needs to do that great play stuff all the time, instead of just a little here and there. It's possible there are a few very good plays by Manuel which are making you think he has greater potential. There's also the possibility of allowing the two QBs' pedigrees to influence how we see them. One was a first round pick. The other was a free agent we were able to sign long after the start of the season, because no one else wanted him.

 

To be completely honest, I don't know why your eyeballs tell you that Manuel has greater potential than Lewis. Nor do I know why my own eyeballs tell me the two QBs have about the same level of potential. When Manuel went out and Lewis came in, my gut told me we were at least as likely to win with Lewis as we'd been with Manuel. Off the top of my head, I don't recollect Manuel doing anything that seemed beyond the ability of Lewis. But my memory isn't perfect, and it's quite possible there are some plays I'm forgetting.

[Omar Little]

OP made some good points but totally undermined them with the 0-16 nonsense. The Bills have fielded much worse teams than this during their playoff drought and haven't come close to a winless season. Also, the new owner's probably going to bring in a fresh staff if the team badly misses the postseason again (with, say, a 6-10 record), so there's no reason whatsoever to root for 0-16 - especially without a first-rounder. That's incredibly dumb.

 

As the Sabres' owner, Pegula made the mistake of retaining holdovers from the prior regime - Regier and Ruff, who, despite their faults, have accomplished way more than Whaley and Marrone ever have - and it blew up in his face. He won't commit the same error with a grossly underachieving football team. The sword of Damocles is hanging over the entire front office and coaching staff right now. Most/all will be gone if the Bills are garbage again this year.

Edited July 4, 2014 by Heisenberg

[Cynical]

As the Sabres' owner, Pegula made the mistake of retaining holdovers from the prior regime - Regier and Ruff, who, despite their faults, have accomplished way more than Whaley and Marrone ever have - and it blew up in his face.

 

Was it a mistake? Or was it a transition/evaluation thing?

 

He won't commit the same error with a grossly underachieving football team. The sword of Damocles is hanging over the entire front office and coaching staff right now. Most/all will be gone if the Bills are garbage again this year.

 

Actually, if Pegula does in fact become the team owner, regardless of the team record, I could see him granting Whaley/Marrone at least one more year to show him they are the guys to turn it around.

[Dibs]

.....

 

At least statistically, Lewis played significantly better than EJ during 2013. By no means am I suggesting we should write off every QB who has a bad rookie year. It's good to be patient--at least with QBs who should have been first round picks in the first place.

 

Significantly better? Sorry, that is incorrect. Lewis had a better QBR (81.0 to 77.7) whereas EJ had the better Total QBR (42.3 to 24.1). I could go through the stats but both QBs having similar QBRs means that statistically speaking, neither was significantly better than the other.

[Chewie]

GRWWAARRRGGHHHHGGGHRRAAARRRUUAARRRGGHHHH!

[first_and_ten]

> Landry's last season as HC was 1988, and the Cowboys went 3-13.

 

Thanks for the correction.

 

> IMHO, the Bills could have just as easily had the first overall pick, and Levy/Jauron would still have found a way to !@#$ it up

 

It's hard to argue with that. It could be argued that the first overall pick matters more when you have a good GM. Polian has had the first overall pick three times in his career. Those three picks resulted in Bruce Smith, Kerry Collins, and Peyton Manning. Smith and Manning are the two best football players Polian ever drafted.

 

>

 

 

I believe The General Manager was Terry Bledsoe when the Bills drafted Bruce smith

Edited July 4, 2014 by first_and_ten

[thebandit27]

 

 

> For the record, EJ was a 66.9% passer at FSU, and whether you want to acknowlege it or not, that stat does indeed tell the story regarding accuracy.

 

Tim Tebow was a 67.1% passer at University of Florida. Do you feel that stat tells the story about Tebow's accuracy?

 

> If your assertion is that he's similar to Tebow, well, I'll have to ask if you've EVER seen him play at all?

 

My assertion is that most college QBs cannot process information quickly enough to become great at the NFL level. Manuel, Tebow, and Losman are similar in that respect. Just as the three QBs were also similar in having good foot speed. This is not to suggest that the three guys are identical across the board.

 

> Tell me please: if he had a good completion percentage, and a very good YPA (both better than Manning in college by the way), how can he be so inaccurate?

 

You keep bringing up his college stats. But you've inadequately addressed the issue I've raised. Namely, that there are plenty of college QBs who put up gaudy stats who later fail in the NFL. Below is a list of college QBs who won Heisman Trophies, from 1989 - 2011:

 

Andre Ware

Ty Detmer

Gino Torretta

Charlie Ward

Danny Wuerffel

Chris Weinke

Eric Crouch

Carson Palmer

Jason White

Matt Leinart

Troy Smith

Tim Tebow

Sam Bradford

Cam Newton

Robert Griffin III

 

While some of the guys on the list have gone on to have NFL success, most have been abject failures. But if you pick out any one of them, odds are he's going to have gaudy college stats. Danny Wuerffel averaged 9.3 yards per attempt in college. Chris Weinke averaged 8.9 yards per attempt in college.

 

> Furthermore, isn't it possible that--looking down the road--they felt there isn't a franchise guy they'd like a whole lot in 2015 either?

 

The above is a best-case scenario, at least if we're evaluating the competence of the front office. While what you described is possible, it's not very likely. Bear in mind that the 2015 draft class contains Hundley, Mariota, and Winston. I find it very difficult to believe the Bills' front office has already written off all three players so completely as to decide their 2015 first round pick would be wasted on a QB even if Manuel failed.

 

> You've seen enough of Manuel to say that he cannot execute a full playbook?

 

Nothing about Manuel's college play indicated he could handle the rapid information processing absolutely required to excel at the NFL level. It's possible that with more time and coaching, he'll show signs of that where there had been none before. Possible, but highly unlikely.

 

I see now that from the original reply we're now down to one talking point: EJ.

 

I wonder why...

 

If your entire position on this topic comes down to the idea that you've written off EJ (Malcolm Gladwell would be disappointed), then just say so from the beginning.

 

I understand that not every QB with good college numbers makes it in the NFL; this isn't news. Whether or not you want to acknowledge it, numbers do tell a story.

 

It's awfully convenient to simply dismiss all the good that the kid did at FSU based on nebulous qualities like "processing information", on which one can basically interject their opinion as fact since no quantifiable data exists to support or refute it.

 

I have no desire to carry on this conversation any further since we've (finally) reached the real point of contention: EJ hasn't proven himself a franchise QB yet, and you're convinced (misguidedly IMO) he never will. The rest of it was window dressing.

 

Well, here's my take that won't be changing soon: he's got the physical ability, he works hard, and he's a smart kid; I'm actually willing to give him a chance.

 

Good thing we took the time to cover this since I don't think there's been a thread about EJ in the last 8 seconds.

[Heitz]

I have no desire to carry on this conversation any further since we've (finally) reached the real point of contention: EJ hasn't proven himself a franchise QB yet, and you're convinced (misguidedly IMO) he never will. The rest of it was window dressing.

 

Well, here's my take that won't be changing soon: he's got the physical ability, he works hard, and he's a smart kid; I'm actually willing to give him a chance.

 

Good thing we took the time to cover this since I don't think there's been a thread about EJ in the last 8 seconds.

 

:golf clap:

[Captain Caveman]

Edited July 5, 2014 by Captain Caveman

[dave mcbride]

 

 

No, it isn't. If you'd like to re-read it and offer your own summary feel free.

 

 

 

Don't forget Mike Williams and the two RBs

 

 

 

I can't agree with "a lot with a little". They had one of the 3 most talented DLs in football (STL and SEA are the others IMO), a former 1st round pick at OLB, Kiko at MLB, 2 first-round starting CBs, an all-pro FS, and an up-and-coming SS. I hardly see how this qualifies as "lemons to make lemonade".

 

As to Schwartz, look at the rosters of his top-10 defenses in Tennessee, we aren't talking about anywhere near the level of talent on this defense:

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/oti/2002.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/oti/2007.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/oti/2008.htm

 

 

 

I'm sorry, but 4-0 in Bowl games and a YPA and QB rating that was better than Peyton Manning coming out of Tennessee disagrees with that assessment. You can call him a 3rd round QB, but you're wrong. At least one (I believe two though) other teams said they were going to take him in the 1st round.

 

 

 

I've read several of Gladwell's books (Tipping Point is easily my favorite), and while I appreciate your desire to draw conclusions about my thought process without ever asking any questions, it just seems ill-advised since you don't know me.

 

 

 

You assume too much and know too little. Littman has zero control over football, and hasn't since Russ took over (you can choose to believe me about that or not; it's true). And as I said to the other poster, why don't we wait and see what the offense looks like with the full playbook before drawing any conclusions?

 

Also, if you consider what Chris Williams signed for--$5.5M guaranteed over 4 years--to be solid starter money, well, we fall very far apart on this point. I'd also caution about labeling him the worst OLmen on the Rams; he actually was quite good in the run game; pass blocking wasn't his best though.

 

Lastly, I'm interested in hearing what this draft has to do with EJ...is it your opinion that Whaley should've drafted another QB early, or are you more worried about the "what do we do next year if EJ fails" scenario?

Fantastic post.

 

Also, Polian had nothing to do with the Bruce Smith selection.

 

Finally, the best thing about giving up a first next season is that it makes it SO much easier to shut down posters rooting for or advocating going 0-16 (or, late in the season, rooting to lose the remaining games so that the Bills go 4-12 instead of 8-8).

Edited July 4, 2014 by dave mcbride

[CountryCletus]

 

Fantastic post.

 

Also, Polian had nothing to do with the Bruce Smith selection.

 

Finally, the best thing about giving up a first next season is that it makes it SO much easier to shut down posters rooting for or advocating going 0-16 (or, late in the season, rooting to lose the remaining games so that the Bills go 4-12 instead of 8-8).

 

I stand firm in my position that I think we will be much improved from last season, but hypothetically, IF we were to go down in flames for whatever reason- the first pick in the 1st round also gets the 1st pick in subsequent rounds... (Barring any ties)

 

It's ludicrous to try and suck... It's like going to work every day drunk, high, and late- trying to lose your job as a CEO to go back to flipping burgers at McDonalds...

[Bill from NYC]

Finally, the best thing about giving up a first next season is that it makes it SO much easier to shut down posters rooting for or advocating going 0-16 (or, late in the season, rooting to lose the remaining games so that the Bills go 4-12 instead of 8-8).

 

It might be a relief to message board posters like us, but it was a move marked by people desperate to keep their jobs. It was an ill advised move in a draft which was absolutely stacked at the wr position.

[CountryCletus]

 

 

It might be a relief to message board posters like us, but it was a move marked by people desperate to keep their jobs. It was an ill advised move in a draft which was absolutely stacked at the wr position.

 

It was an ill advised move according to who? Am I wrong in assuming that comment references the move was not a popular one in the war room or around the league?

 

From all I have read, everyone, including Buddy (from an advisory role) was on board with this move. The only comments that could be taken negatively, are in reference to the compensation- to which I say, if they had SW ranked as the best player in the draft, and they feel he is elite, make the move once in a while....

 

Only time will tell if the move was wise. If he is the best WR to come out since megatron, I think it's a win all day!

[Bill from NYC]

 

 

It was an ill advised move according to who? Am I wrong in assuming that comment references the move was not a popular one in the war room or around the league?

 

From all I have read, everyone, including Buddy (from an advisory role) was on board with this move. The only comments that could be taken negatively, are in reference to the compensation- to which I say, if they had SW ranked as the best player in the draft, and they feel he is elite, make the move once in a while....

 

Only time will tell if the move was wise. If he is the best WR to come out since megatron, I think it's a win all day!

I ask you to consider the following for the sake of good dialogue.....

 

When the Bills drafted EJ, they traded down 8 spots. This tell me that the Bills were either not entirely sold on him as a franchise OR, they had someone (Smith?) rated about as high.

 

Then, in his rookie season, he has a mediocre year and multiple injuries to boot. What to do? Trade away a potential top 5 future pick for a wideout. I can easily agree to disagree, but from where I sit this makes no sense.

And if you don't even suspect at all that this move was more about the brass trying to save their jobs than to build a solid franchise, I don't really know what to say.

 

Bottom line imo is that someone has to get the ball to Watkins. I hope EJ can do it. As you said, time will tell.

Edited July 4, 2014 by Bill from NYC

[Orton's Arm]

Significantly better? Sorry, that is incorrect. Lewis had a better QBR (81.0 to 77.7) whereas EJ had the better Total QBR (42.3 to 24.1). I could go through the stats but both QBs having similar QBRs means that statistically speaking, neither was significantly better than the other.

 

> Lewis had a better QBR . . .

 

QBR stands for total quarterback rating. Total quarterback rating--QBR--is a newer, and much more useful stat than the old quarterback rating stat. My two favorite stats are yards per attempt and QBR. The old quarterback rating stat is useless because it makes short passing game QBs look better than they should; and deep passers look worse than they should. Kelly Holcomb and John Elway have nearly identical career quarterback ratings; which alone should be sufficient to discredit that stat as a way of comparing QBs.

 

But I'm very open to using the new stat: QBR. Until I read your post, I hadn't realized that Thad Lewis's QBR for 2013 was only 24.1. To put that into perspective, Ryan Tannehill had a QBR of 45.8, Christian Ponder had a QBR of 51.2, and Jake Locker had a QBR of 58.1. Thad Lewis looks like a third string quarterback--at least according to QBR.

 

The reason I thought Thad Lewis had played significantly better than Manuel was because Lewis averaged 6.9 yards per attempt last season. Manuel averaged a mere 6.4. For comparison, Trent Edwards has a career average of 6.5 yards per attempt; and Tom Brady's career average is 7.5 yards per attempt. If 1.0 yards per attempt separate Trent Edwards from Tom Brady, then a difference of 0.5 yards per attempt is more than enough to make you sit up and take notice!

 

With Manuel having a significant advantage over Lewis in QBR, and Lewis having a sizable edge in yards per attempt, it's not entirely clear which guy had the statistically better 2013 season. I may have to give the benefit of the doubt to Manuel on this one, due to the extreme weakness of Lewis's QBR.

Edited July 4, 2014 by Edwards' Arm

[dave mcbride]

 

 

It might be a relief to message board posters like us, but it was a move marked by people desperate to keep their jobs. It was an ill advised move in a draft which was absolutely stacked at the wr position.

Disagree. The Bills have been devoid of stars on offense for too damn long. I may be proven wrong, but I think Watkins is head and shoulders better than any other WR in this past draft and has superstar potential. You need elite players to win. Eric Ebron -- the next guy in line at the Bills' original spot and the guy they would have taken -- doesn't strike me as an elite talent. Watkins has far more potential than Ebron.

 

A thought experiment: let's say that the Bengals had the number 8 pick in 2011 and decided to trade their 2012 #1 in order to trade up to #4 and get AJ Green. They would have given up the chance to take Dre Kirkpatrick (their #1 pick in 2012), a mediocre CB at this point (and therefore relatively easy to replace via free agency or a second round pick). His AV (a PFR overall value stat) this past season was 4 -- which is lousy: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KirkDr00.htm . I believe that AJ Green makes a decidedly average QB and offense an above-average one. It would have been a very smart trade given how things turned out.

 

Ironically, the next wr taken in 2011 was Julio Jones at #6 -- and the Falcons traded up 21 spots to get him. He wouldn't have been available at #8 either (for argument's sake, he was this year's Mike Evans, who the Bills would have missed out on too). The next Wr taken that year was Jonathan Baldwin, and he has been a complete bust.

 

Do not underestimate the impact of elite players. The Bills need some.

Edited July 4, 2014 by dave mcbride

[die hard bills fan]

utter nonsense

[K-9]

It might be a relief to message board posters like us, but it was a move marked by people desperate to keep their jobs. It was an ill advised move in a draft which was absolutely stacked at the wr position.

 

It may have been a draft "absolutely stacked at the wr position", but there was only one Sammy Watkins available. He was far and away the best offensive prospect, let alone wr prospect, in the draft. And it really wasn't close. At all. That's right off scouting reports.

 

You are certainly entitled to your cynical position that it was all about "people desperate to keep their jobs", but it was more about getting one of the best offensive players in the last 10 years.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Disagree. The Bills have been devoid of stars on offense for too damn long. I may be proven wrong, but I think Watkins is head and shoulders better than any other WR in this past draft and has superstar potential. You need elite players to win. Eric Ebron -- the next guy in line at the Bills' original spot and the guy they would have taken -- doesn't strike me as an elite talent. Watkins has far more potential than Ebron.

 

A thought experiment: let's say that the Bengals had the number 8 pick in 2011 and decided to trade their 2012 #1 in order to trade up to #4 and get AJ Green. They would have given up the chance to take Dre Kirkpatrick (their #1 pick in 2012), a mediocre CB at this point (and therefore relatively easy to replace via free agency or a second round pick). His AV (a PFR overall value stat) this past season was 4 -- which is lousy: http://www.pro-footb.../K/KirkDr00.htm . I believe that AJ Green makes a decidedly average QB and offense an above-average one. It would have been a very smart trade given how things turned out.

 

Ironically, the next wr taken in 2011 was Julio Jones at #6 -- and the Falcons traded up 21 spots to get him. He wouldn't have been available at #8 either (for argument's sake, he was this year's Mike Evans, who the Bills would have missed out on too). The next Wr taken that year was Jonathan Baldwin, and he has been a complete bust.

 

Do not underestimate the impact of elite players. The Bills need some.

 

I didn't see this post until after I responded to Bill. It would have saved me some time.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[uncle flap]

 

And if you don't even suspect at all that this move was more about the brass trying to save their jobs than to build a solid franchise, I don't really know what to say.

 

 

That doesn't make any sense. "We want to keep our jobs, so we better do something detrimental to our franchise."

 

I know for a fact they were intent on going "balls to the wall" in the draft to get a playmaker long before Ralph passed. You can check with any of the posters here that get credible inside info and they will tell you the same.

 

Drafting Watkins IS a part of building a solid franchise. You obviously don't think so, but that doesn't mean the FO agrees with you.

[3rdand12]

I think football organazitions have gotten so pressurized that it's common , not always , but often and apparent. Many FOs are under enough stress to consider dramatic moves are needed .

Getting Mario was a move to finally a get freakin pass rush to at least make it interesting. Fitz wasn't going to pan out and the fans were screaming QB .we drafted one Made sure they got the best one on the board.. had to do it

This pick of Watkins regardless of outcome , has my vote

for best pick of the draft . I was a detractor to even pick him at eight . I woulda picked Mike Evans maybe. I was wrong . This is the guy you want on your team long term . trust me.

Bills went for it . Bravo

Go Bills !

Edited July 4, 2014 by 3rdand12