Insider: Gilmore grades as second-rounder

[sirebors]

Just some interesting anonymous observations:

 

 

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/04/22/insider-gilmore-grades-as-second-rounder

[Florida Gator 14]

Interesting stuff. Excited to see what happens Thursday-Saturday!!

[sirebors]

And this, lol...

 

 

Bills GM Buddy Nix says the wide receivers entering the league "get prettier every year."

 

 

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/04/16/nfl-links-newton-showing-more-maturity

[Kelly the Dog]

Me thinks the "insider" is lying through his teeth. I think Gilmore is going in the top ten and a decent to likely choice of the Bills.

[PromoTheRobot]

“If (Stanford OLT) Jonathan Martin goes in the top 20, it is a crime. He is (very soft). He should go in the third (round).”

 

If he's that soft should he drafted at all?

 

PTR

[Shoutbox]

Me thinks the "insider" is lying through his teeth. I think Gilmore is going in the top ten and a decent to likely choice of the Bills.

 

I can believe it. Gilmore was a distant 4th behind Claiborne, Kirkpatrick, and Jenkins until his combine workout. He got burned way too many times last year to be considered a top 10 CB. He doesn't have the natural instincts of a CB and may project better at FS in the NFL.

[NoSaint]

I can believe it. Gilmore was a distant 4th behind Claiborne, Kirkpatrick, and Jenkins until his combine workout. He got burned way too many times last year to be considered a top 10 CB. He doesn't have the natural instincts of a CB and may project better at FS in the NFL.

 

He's a guy that just absolutely flew up boards once he stopped playing games

[Kelly the Dog]

I can believe it. Gilmore was a distant 4th behind Claiborne, Kirkpatrick, and Jenkins until his combine workout. He got burned way too many times last year to be considered a top 10 CB. He doesn't have the natural instincts of a CB and may project better at FS in the NFL.

Until scouts, and the serious draftniks, actually look at all of the games that a guy has played from game tape, which occurs after the season and before the draft, the "considered to be top 10" stuff is pretty much based on reputation not real study , The guys that I personally think are the best of the bunch almost all have him in the top 10 after studying him closely. Mayock. Greg Cosell. Lombardi. Plus some serious plugged in reporters. Cosell, who i like a lot, considers him better than Claiborne after his study of both, which actually surprised him. He's a very good chance to go to the Jags at 7. To me, from everything i have read on all of them from all kinds of sources, he the best all around guy except for Claiborne.

[aussiebills]

I dnt no where this talk of Gilmore has come from, he has never rated highly with me. I understand if we take him in the 2nd or 3rd but not the first please not the first.

 

I would love for someone to show me otherwise but I would rather reiff and keuchly before Gilmore in the first

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I dnt no where this talk of Gilmore has come from, he has never rated highly with me. I understand if we take him in the 2nd or 3rd but not the first please not the first.

 

I would love for someone to show me otherwise but I would rather reiff and keuchly before Gilmore in the first

This and Kirkpatrick.

[BillnutinHouston]

After reading the article above, read the article on Bill Walsh's draftisms. Kind of puts it in perspective.

[BringMe]

I would like to know who all these"insiders" are…

[4BillsintheBurgh]

There were insiders who thought Jason Pierre-Paul would be a bust too. It's been proven that "insiders" don't have the best track record either. Plus, there is probably more agenda in letting these comments go out than anything else. Maybe the Pats* would like a shot at him?

[jjmac]

This is, of course, one man's opinion.

[JPS]

I get this facial twitch every time I think of the Bills spending another high pick on a CB. Thanks, Dick.

 

Let's also remember that cb's like T. McGee and A. Samuel can be found later in the draft. I think the Bills need to plan for CB need, but I don't think they're in desperate need for a starter this year.

 

Please take Hosley later.

[Brainiac72]

yeah, that's what i've been saying a while. it maybe true that some is based on going back and looking at the film, but even then a little is based on seeing what you want to see after the workouts. they see these guys do everything in these drills to suggest they can be a great player, and it's easy to forget there maybe a reason the production wasn't there. the game time instincts go a long way. i mean, McKelvin should be great.... but he's not, ya know? and it happens at every position. the game fade from memory a bit when you watch him do great drills. even good GM's have admitted they have been guilty of putting too much emphasis on the post-season stuff, even though they know better.

 

maybe Gilmore ends up great, but the recent buzz that he's some bona fide lockdown corner does seem exaggerated lately. if true, i think people would have seen it to a greater extent before February.

[Cash]

After reading the article above, read the article on Bill Walsh's draftisms. Kind of puts it in perspective.

Haha, I was thinking the same thing. Especially during the first 3/4 of the quotes, which were all negative. Everyone's overrated and everyone should be going a round later. Talk about CYA. I know if I was a GM, hearing that from a scout would tick me off. I know some drafts are weaker than others, but everyone's drafting from the same pool of players. They can't ALL be reaches. If a guy is one of the 32 best prospects in the draft pool, then he's a fine pick in the first round, even if he might be a late second-rounder in a different year.

[QCity]

Until scouts, and the serious draftniks, actually look at all of the games that a guy has played from game tape, which occurs after the season and before the draft

If you are a scout, player assessment is an ongoing process that begins well before the season even starts. Your entire week is spent breaking down tape - every single week of the season. There isn't a period after the season ends where scouts say, "Ok, now let's get down to the real analysis" (most of the second-rate drafniks seem to say this). Wild post-season fluctuations are the result of the combine/pro day/workouts, character issues, or the perception of team need.

 

Another thing to note is that CB is probably the most difficult position to assess from a fan's view. Sure, you can see when a CB gets smoked. But are you aware of when a CB blankets a receiver and forces the QB to his 2nd or 3rd option? Can you always tell when a CB flawlessly rolls to zone coverage and forces the QB to take a sack? You literally are taking the draftnik's word. And what percent of draftniks actually put in the work of a scout and study (or even have access to) scouting tapes? I'm sure Kiper/McShay/Mayock do, but what about the thousands of other internet mockers (Peter King, Walter Football, etc, etc)? With all the second rate mocks out there that parrot each other, it's very easy to create an internet upswell for a player.

[GG]

If you are a scout, player assessment is an ongoing process that begins well before the season even starts. Your entire week is spent breaking down tape - every single week of the season. There isn't a period after the season ends where scouts say, "Ok, now let's get down to the real analysis" (most of the second-rate drafniks seem to say this). Wild post-season fluctuations are the result of the combine/pro day/workouts, character issues, or the perception of team need.

 

Another thing to note is that CB is probably the most difficult position to assess from a fan's view. Sure, you can see when a CB gets smoked. But are you aware of when a CB blankets a receiver and forces the QB to his 2nd or 3rd option? Can you always tell when a CB flawlessly rolls to zone coverage and forces the QB to take a sack? You literally are taking the draftnik's word. And what percent of draftniks actually put in the work of a scout and study (or even have access to) scouting tapes? I'm sure Kiper/McShay/Mayock do, but what about the thousands of other internet mockers (Peter King, Walter Football, etc, etc)? With all the second rate mocks out there that parrot each other, it's very easy to create an internet upswell for a player.

 

While I agree with your overall point, I don't think that scouts have the time during the season to break down tapes of every target on a weekly basis. There isn't enough time in the week to do that. What they likely do is analyze a few games of the players they will watch live during the coming week, file away the notes and move on to the next player. Plus, I doubt that scouts have access to the full body of coaches' game film until the season is over. The scouts use the college season to gather the data, and use the offseason to analyze the data.

[Kelly the Dog]

If you are a scout, player assessment is an ongoing process that begins well before the season even starts. Your entire week is spent breaking down tape - every single week of the season. There isn't a period after the season ends where scouts say, "Ok, now let's get down to the real analysis" (most of the second-rate drafniks seem to say this). Wild post-season fluctuations are the result of the combine/pro day/workouts, character issues, or the perception of team need.

 

Another thing to note is that CB is probably the most difficult position to assess from a fan's view. Sure, you can see when a CB gets smoked. But are you aware of when a CB blankets a receiver and forces the QB to his 2nd or 3rd option? Can you always tell when a CB flawlessly rolls to zone coverage and forces the QB to take a sack? You literally are taking the draftnik's word. And what percent of draftniks actually put in the work of a scout and study (or even have access to) scouting tapes? I'm sure Kiper/McShay/Mayock do, but what about the thousands of other internet mockers (Peter King, Walter Football, etc, etc)? With all the second rate mocks out there that parrot each other, it's very easy to create an internet upswell for a player.

I totally agree with that. We never get a true scout's reading on a guy, outside of the tiny blurbs once in a while like during the Bills luncheon last week. I was talking about the guys we read in draft guides and see on TV and read in the paper. Those are ones where the wild fluctuations take place.

 

Personally, I think real scouts were always aware of Gilmore, he simply wasn't as well known or seen as Kirkpatrick because of Alabama. But Gilmore was one of the best high school players in the nation, started as a true freshman and was on the all freshmen SEC team, and was first team all SEC as a sophomore by the coaches (2nd in AP), and first team SEC as a junior. Combine that with good combine numbers and known to be a smart player and leader and squeaky clean as well as Kirkpatrick's off the field incident, there is no wonder he went up the charts for the draftnik guys.

 

Again, I assume that the Bills scouts and Nix were very high on him all along. He's exactly the kind of player they love.

 

While I agree with your overall point, I don't think that scouts have the time during the season to break down tapes of every target on a weekly basis. There isn't enough time in the week to do that. What they likely do is analyze a few games of the players they will watch live during the coming week, file away the notes and move on to the next player. Plus, I doubt that scouts have access to the full body of coaches' game film until the season is over. The scouts use the college season to gather the data, and use the offseason to analyze the data.

Good points and good post.

[QCity]

While I agree with your overall point, I don't think that scouts have the time during the season to break down tapes of every target on a weekly basis. There isn't enough time in the week to do that. What they likely do is analyze a few games of the players they will watch live during the coming week, file away the notes and move on to the next player. Plus, I doubt that scouts have access to the full body of coaches' game film until the season is over. The scouts use the college season to gather the data, and use the offseason to analyze the data.

Man I read this great article a while ago (was long like a small book) on the life of scouts, and I can't find the link to it now. I found another small one but it doesn't detail much. The life isn't glamorous at all. But yeah, not only do they get coaches' tape, they also meet with coaches 6 days a week, and try to watch as many practices as they can for their targeted players. I think they said the average nfl scout watches something like 60 hours of film a week during the season. Crazy.

[Kelly the Dog]

Man I read this great article a while ago (was long like a small book) on the life of scouts, and I can't find the link to it now. I found another small one but it doesn't detail much. The life isn't glamorous at all. But yeah, not only do they get coaches' tape, they also meet with coaches 6 days a week, and try to watch as many practices as they can for their targeted players. I think they said the average nfl scout watches something like 60 hours of film a week during the season. Crazy.

Yeah, scouts lead ridiculous lives during the season. But I still think that it is 90% acquiring information and formulating often very fluid opinions on players because players play differently during the course of the year, some regress, some get better, some are amazingly consistent. And it isn't until after the season that they can really get grades on these guys. Which is why Nix said last week the first Bills draft board comes up sometime in January. It's like doing research for a book, you are gathering information and often formulating your story as you go along and learn more, but you're constantly writing and rewriting and rewriting until you have a finished product.

[Ramius]

Great posts by Kelly and GG.

 

I do have a problem with scouts like this guy who say nothing but "Player X is overrated. Player Y isn't as good as thought." This is a business where what, 80% of draftees turn out to be "failures." Anyone can predict a player will suck and won't pan out and still be right most of the time. Wake me up when the scout starts predicting correctly which players will turn out good and i'll pay attention.

[MikeSpeed]

Gilmore was also a return guy and a wildcat QB while at SC. Wouldn't it be nice to save Brad Smith's roster spot for someone who may actually contribute?

[section122]

It seems to me that Gillmore was Astro's pick for the Bills in the 2nd round many many times. Now all of a sudden he is geting top 10 consideration! I'm more than a little bit surprised/nervous about a jump that big this late.

[Mark Long Beach]

Great posts by Kelly and GG.

 

I do have a problem with scouts like this guy who say nothing but "Player X is overrated. Player Y isn't as good as thought." This is a business where what, 80% of draftees turn out to be "failures." Anyone can predict a player will suck and won't pan out and still be right most of the time. Wake me up when the scout starts predicting correctly which players will turn out good and i'll pay attention.

 

 

I agree that picking people to fail isn't so big a stretch. However, These anonymous quotes are from people EMPLOYED by NFL teams. There is NO way that they're going to give out glowing review on lesser prospects that they feel they might get. It'd be stupid.

[JESSEFEFFER]

I will give PFW the benfefit of the doubt on their sources and it might make for an interesting discussion but it's tough to respect opinions offered by people unwilling to put their name to it. I remember a section that criticized the Bills' hiring of Buddy Nix. It was rather insulting to him really. It sounded like someone with an agenda taking a pot shot.

[GG]

Yeah, scouts lead ridiculous lives during the season. But I still think that it is 90% acquiring information and formulating often very fluid opinions on players because players play differently during the course of the year, some regress, some get better, some are amazingly consistent. And it isn't until after the season that they can really get grades on these guys. Which is why Nix said last week the first Bills draft board comes up sometime in January. It's like doing research for a book, you are gathering information and often formulating your story as you go along and learn more, but you're constantly writing and rewriting and rewriting until you have a finished product.

 

Exactly. I should also clarify that even if the individual scouts have access to the weekly game tapes, there's no way all that information is filtered through the entire scouting department until the season is over. It is very much like a funnel, where the field guys do the heavy lifting during the season, but no way do Whaley & Nix have the information they need until January and that's when the elimination begins, and why you see opinions crystallize the closer you move to the draft.

[bouds]

After reading that you get the impression that everyone is overrated.

[1billsfan]

Here's a good read on Gilmore...

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/shutdown-50-11-stephon-gilmore-cb-south-carolina-141620475.html

 

 

If you go to the bottom, they have articles on other players. After reading the articles on both Kuechly and Kirkpatrick, I would much rather the Bills pick Gilmore over those two players who have bigger question marks. Sometimes there's good reason why a guy either rises or falls. Because the move is actually warranted.

Edited April 23, 2012 by 1billsfan

[Kelly the Dog]

Here's a good read on Gilmore...

 

http://sports.yahoo....-141620475.html

 

 

If you go to the bottom, they have articles on other players. After reading the articles on both Kuechly and Kirkpatrick, I would much rather the Bills pick Gilmore over those two players who have bigger question marks. Sometimes there's good reason why a guy either rises or falls. Because the move is actually warranted.

There was a very good point regarding the combine numbers in that article which doesn't seem to be mentioned enough, which was...

A 4.37 forty time and impressive performances in combine drills proved that he had the measurables to match his on-field effort and aggressiveness.

When a guy isn't all that productive or explosive a performer, or only does it for a short period of time, and then hits the combine with numbers that wow everyone and he shoots up the charts, that should be a red flag and buyer beware all over it. And a lot of people rightfully so point it out.

 

But, conversely, if a guy like Gilmore is a very productive and explosive and a sound player, and then hits the combine with numbers that wow everyone and""match his on field" stuff, and then he shoots up the charts, it could be a green flag. That this guy has it all. And his ascension may be warranted.

 

Mostly, a player's game tape, like Nix says, is 70% of his draft grade, and Gilmore's game tape is going to look very good to scouts. Add the speed and size and measureables, it's no wonder he is rated where he seemingly is.

[QCity]

Here's another report on Gilmore (and a very good site for scouting players).

[Lurker]

If you are a scout, player assessment is an ongoing process that begins well before the season even starts. Your entire week is spent breaking down tape - every single week of the season. There isn't a period after the season ends where scouts say, "Ok, now let's get down to the real analysis" (most of the second-rate drafniks seem to say this). Wild post-season fluctuations are the result of the combine/pro day/workouts, character issues, or the perception of team need.

The wild swings come from draft gurus on the outside looking in, not the teams themselves...