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Day 1 is in the books! Compared to the absolute bonkers nature of last year's first round this was relatively mild and predictable. As expected the three Quarterbacks that were projected to be the first three picks went in exactly that order. While the Michael Penix Jnr pick from Atlanta at #8 was genuinely shocking (well done to them for keeping that under wraps.... the first sense that it even might happen was in the half hour before the draft began) it was a team picking at their designated spot and without trading up. Last year saw five draft night trades in the top half of round one. This year saw one and it was just the Vikings doing the old pick switcharoo with the Jets from #11 to #10. So not quite the sense of fun and fireworks in 2024 but let's get to breaking it down... The Bills Pick Trades Okay so despite some of us across the pond sitting up until it was already light Brandon Beane and co declined to make a pick in the first round of the NFL draft. Before I get onto the actual nature of the two trade downs worth reflecting that Brandon Beane has possessed 8 first round selections in his 7 years as Bills GM (because he inherited two that first year from the McDermott/Whaley trade back with Kansas City that became Patrick Mahomes). On only two occasions has he stood pat and used the pick he had - 2019 on Ed Oliver and 2021 on Greg Rousseau. He has traded up four times (Allen and Edmunds in '18; Elam in '22 and Kincaid in '23) and has now traded out of round one twice (2020 for Diggs in a trade and last night). At this stage I think it is pretty clear to make the assessment that he is not, by his nature, a "let the board come to him" General Manager. He is a guy who has very specific targets and moves around the draft to try and create value at the spots that he selects guys. I don't make any further comment on that at this stage. It is probably a topic that merits further consideration in terms of the effectiveness of that strategy. But I thought it was an interesting angle on this that maybe didn't jump out to me until I reflected this morning. So onto the trades themselves. Let me say whenever a GM with a pick near the end of a round trades back, and particularity when they do it twice, it tells me their board is out of grades in that specific round. I honestly believe the Bills have no first round grades left. Not just none at receiver. No first round grades. If they had a guy with a true first still on the board I think they would have picked. Even if not at #28 then at #32. You don't give up the extra year of control you get on those first round players if you think you have a guy that is genuinely at that level of talent. But having listened to Beane's presser this was also somewhat about filling holes for them. They think they need to get multiple starters out of this draft it is pretty evident to me and they felt like they have to get more picks higher up than they had. As I said in my compendium thread yesterday the drop off in this class comes between 100 and 120. The Bills had only two picks in that range and one on the fringe (#128). They now have three and still have that fringe pick with the ability to package one or two fifth rounders with that to move inside that top 120 again and get four guys who have a chance to really contribute as rookies. I feel differently about the two trades. The first, which let's be clear was moving BACK with Kansas City four spots in round 1 to move UP 38 spots from the bottom of round 4 to the bottom of round 3 and UP 27 picks from the end of round 7 to the top of it, worked out as a Bills win by the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart - to get up 70 points the Chiefs gave up 82 - but a slight Chiefs win by the Rich Hill chart where to get up 27 points they gave up 25. My take on that trade is I don't like the process but I don't mind the outcome. I do not like the idea of the Bills making it easier for the team that they are chasing in the AFC to build their roster the way they want to build it. I actually had a thought exercise in one of the mock sims where the Chiefs wanted to get up and basically my position was I want your second round pick to be willing to do it (I sent a 4th or a 5th back can't recall). They took Xavier Worthy who was not my favourite fit for the Bills for a number of reasons - ability to get off press, ability to play as primarily an outside guy, lack of physicality given that is what seems to hurt us year after year in the playoffs etc. The fact I think he is a good fit for a Kansas City team trying to rediscover its fastball on offense is neither here nor there for me it is the principle of being open to doing business with the team you are trying to catch. That said, as others have pointed out there was a limited chance that he was going to get picked by the three teams behind us (the 9ers might have been the wildcard given they eventually went Pearsall, I know some people had speculated on Dallas but they were OT all the way IMO) and if we weren't interested in him might as well get the pick value the Chiefs were willing to give you. The second trade, moving back one spot with Carolina who by the Johnson chart gave up 24.5 points to get up 10 points and by the Hill chart gave up 9 points to get up 4 points, was an even clearer Bills win and in principle when you don't have a true first round grade left on your board (and as I explain above I'm certain they didn't) is a trade you should always make. Especially when your mate and former assistant is the GM of the team you are trading with. I all but guarantee Dan Morgan told Beane who he was going to draft there before Beane signed off on it and it wasn't his guy. I didn't like the outcome though. Xavier Legette was my WR4. After the big 3 he was the guy I had the highest grade on. I stood firm on him being a first round talent when after the Senior Bowl there were some well respected guys talking about him as a 3rd round type. I accept that ultimately the Bills felt differently about him. But I think the kid is going to be a stud and if Bryce Young can get him the ball the Panthers are going to be very happy with their pick. My Mock I set a new personal best for 28 of the 32 correctly mocked in round one. As I said at the start I think it was a reasonably predictable year so that definitely played a part but after hitting 27 the last two years I'm happy to go one better with 28. The four I missed - Bo Nix who I wish I'd stuck to my guns on; Darius Robinson who I knew was a potential first rounder after he was invited to the draft but to me him ahead of Johnny Newton is batshit crazy; Ricky Pearsall who genuinely did surprise me; and Xavier Legette who I had pretty much assumed was going #33 to Carolina and if I'd carried on to cover teams who didn't have a first I'd have made that connection. I had 6 exact player and team matches which is about my average. The first four were pretty easy, the other two for me were McCarthy to Minnesota and Tyler Guyton to Dallas. I had a further nine right position wrong player - particularly just with the order the tackles, corners and edge guys came off the board. I will score it by the Fantasy Draft Pros scoring formula later (I'd have ranked top 25 last year if thrown in with all the pros) and while I think I'll be high scoring again I think it will be a high scoring year overall. Player(s) I was high on... So the two guys I was higher than the consensus on all the way through in terms of having first grades on them were Jordan Morgan (who was mocked in the late first range a fair bit as the process went on but a lot of people saw him as more a second round grade) and Xavier Legette. I feel a certain vindication that both went last night. But I do still have three of my first round grades on the board (interestingly all five of my borderline firsts are gone) in Johnny Newton, Cooper DeJean and Kool-Aid McKinstry. I'm most surprised about Kool-Aid of the three even though he was the lowest grade of the three for me. Newton has had injuries and some teams will have size concerns and despite him having outstanding tape the mood music was that he could slip into early day two and Cooper DeJean is also coming off injury and is that kind of hybrid guy who some teams might just struggle to see a fit for. McKinstry in the end I think is just a victim of how late the corner run started. He was the 4th best pure corner and because some of those teams who might have gone corner early went in other directions ultimately it ended up that only three went off the board. Player(s) I was down on... The lowest ranked player to be selected last night by my board was JJ McCarthy. My reasons for not being super high on him are set out in my Quarterback evaluations thread and he ended up #84 on my board. But I expected him to go and we will see whether Minnesota were right to take a chance of a guy with a great deal of variance in outcome given the lack of volume as a passer in college. The next lowest was Darius Robinson who was ranked 63rd on my board. I just don't know what he is. At least he got taken by a 3-4 team because I think his best shot is as a defensive end in a three man front - a 5T type role. I give the kid credit he had a great Senior Bowl and a great Combine. He has aced the process. But I don't see a first round player on tape. He has a third round grade for me. Some natural physical ability but a lack of refined technique and no obvious NFL role fit. Let's see if Arizona can make it work out. Biggest shock of the night Easily Michael Penix Jnr to the Falcons at #8. I like Penix. He was my QB3 after Williams and Maye. If you want a pure, conventional, pocket passer who throws the ball down the football field and doesn't need a load of gimmicky ways to get the ball out of his hands then Michael Penix is for you. He actually has some Kirk Cousins to his game which is ironic because Kirk Cousins is the guy he will now go and back up in Atlanta. Where it is strange to me is taking a guy who is an older prospect, already 24, and asking him to sit behind a guy you just gave a 4 year $180m deal to. Even if Penix sits for two years (by which time he will be 26) and then they are able to trade Kirk (who by that point will be 38) they will still end up with $25m in dead cap. In a sense I congratulate them for being aggressive at the Quarterback spot. That is the way to play the game when there is a guy there you like and your guy is older than 35 - I said it when the Packers took Jordan Love and it worked out in the end for them. And I certainly don't shed any tears for Kirk Cousins who has played the business of the NFL pretty well himself and has to accept when teams do the same. But overall it is certainly an odd approach to managing the QB position from the Falcons. That said, watching Desmond Ridder try and play Quarterback in the NFL that last two years is bound to give you a sense of urgency at the spot Worst Pick I hate what the Raiders did. Hate it. Okay, they were probably planning to take Penix, thought they were safe to wait until #13 for him and then wham the Falcons gazump them. But for a team with so many major holes to spend the 13th overall pick on a tight is just baffling to me. They have basically one proven player on their offensive line in Kolton Miller but refused to take advantage of the excellent tackle class. Their starting corners are Jack Jones who even Bill Belichick couldn't turn into a serviceable DB and was picked up off waivers from New England and a guy name Jakorian Bennett (no? me neither) and yet they pass on Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold. Hell I think wide receiver would have been a luxury pick but at least there you can say well their #1 in Devante Adams turns 32 during next season and might be coming to the end. This is nothing against Brock Bowers. In the 11 seasons I have been doing this he became only the third tight end I had a true 1st round grade on. He is a good player. I wish him well. But for a team with holes at the spots that most impact you winning and losing football games to spend the 13th overall pick on a tight end when the board was as it was? Speechless. Dumb, dumb move. Big Board Check I know, the Bills haven't picked yet and go into day 2 with the first pick of the night at #33 this is the bit you all care about.... I don't think it is a lock we pick at #33 either based on Beane saying they "have already taken calls" and you do quite often see teams overpay for #33 and #34 when they re=set their boards after day 1 and convince themselves there is a can't miss guy at the top. I actually think Newton IS a can't miss guy as well for any team whose best defender isn't already their 3T.... the question is how much further is Beane willing to move back. Anyway - here is my top 15 remaining as we stand right now: 1. Jer'Zhan Newton*, DT, Illinois 2. Cooper DeJean*, CB, Iowa 3. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama 4. Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon 5. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas 6. Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota 7. Braden Fiske, DT, FSU 8. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia 9. Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri 10. Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington 11. Kamarri Lassiter, CB, Georgia 12. Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon 13. Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas 14. Payton Wilson, LB, NC State 15. Christian Haynes, IOL, UConn And as a bonus feature.... if I had to predict what the Bills do at #33 it would be select Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon. I'd pick Mitchell but my gut is telling my they are going Franklin. Enjoy day 2 folks. I'll be back to debrief tomorrow!

Seems like an obviously terrible decision from my perch. The fetishization of draft pick hording seems to be the driver — Beane can't quite get over the fourth tound comp designation for Edmunds and was hellbent on getting a third round pick. But jeez, don’t trade with KC. Hope I’m wrong.

Perfect example of that for us would be Terrell Bernard. Pick made no sense in a vacuum of one year for where he was taken, with Edmunds and Milano on the roster. Fast forward two years and the guy is a key piece of the defense and an absolute stud in our system.

Just off the top of my head - Luck Hasselbeck (Matt) Tatupu Edmunds (Tremaine) Heyward

Man, I wish I could get on the BTJ train... but I can't. My kingdom for one highlight of him snatching the ball over the middle, or a route that shows nuance and shiftiness. If he's drafted, I'll get on-board quick. But I see a souped up Gabe. Plus he has injury concerns, on-field concerns (hands, route running clearly a work in progress), and personality concerns (doesn't exactly strike me as an alpha). He strikes me as the Tremaine Edmunds of wide receivers. He's super impressive physically, but a complete projection as a football player. Beane, like most GM's, are salivating over his traits. But I'd be thrilled if they pass on him. Also, can someone give me a more hopeful comp than Christian Watson or DJ Chark. The PFF guys have him somewhere between wr #9 and wr#15. I'm open to plenty of positivity.

It absolutely is. My initial example in my response to the tweet was Tremaine Edmunds, who started 82 games in 5 seasons for the Bills. He didn't not get a 2nd contract from the Bills. He had his detractors on TBD, but he didn't get signed to a 4 year, $72M contract with $50M guaranteed from the Bears because league-wide GMs thought he wasn't a "hit" as a draft pick. To the contrary, he was regarded well enough that he priced the Bills out of his market.

Tremaine Edmunds is only 21!

I'm not sure "signed a second contract with the team that drafted them" is a good criterion to decide if a player is a "hit" or a "miss". Take, for example, Edmunds. Did he sign a 2nd contract with the team that drafted him? No. Was it because he was a "miss"? No, he started 5 years for the Bills and didn't sign a 2nd contract only because he made himself a very high priced FA, and we prioritized re-up'ing our 1st round QB (drafted that same year) and 1st round DT. And (for example) 2019 QB Daniel Jones counts as a "hit" because he was offered a 2nd countract - but do Giants fans count him as a hit? Do we?

Wasn't it in the same draft where Beane moved up to get Allen he also moved up to get Edmunds. If I remember correctly.

Chicago does well in round 1!! They'd be thrilled with these selections AND the added draft capital. Bonus: Latu at almost a full 4 years older, should be a good mentor to Edmunds. Love this pick right here. Get your guy. Finally, the Raiders have hope.

I agree with your take. I'm still pissed that we didn't get that 3rd rounder for Edmunds. I do think that Beane will look to move up, but I don't think there will be any takers. Trading down seems very likely. Maybe we move down a couple spots with San Francisco, and get one of their many draft picks. Then find someone early in the second round to trade with?

I guess I kind of think the opposite of this. The time for me to burn draft picks would have been while Josh was in his lower cap years. We kind of need the picks to hit now to manage the finances unfortunately. In the low cap hit years we are able to grab a Von Miller type player or two, now there is less overhead and more reliance on smaller vet contracts coming in. I am thinking he is going to try and leverage Josh's talent as much as possible and I thought it was an interesting point when he said he needs a selfless guy in this offense. Not sure if the top guys are that, but that's just because of my ignorance. I'm guessing they have identified a few guys who fit the mold they're looking for and I wouldn't be surprised if they're 2nd and lower round guys. The big swing, if taken, will be a deviation from Beane's normal mantra. Will be interesting to see if he is feeling a little pressure to dump some future resources into this year. I thought it was awesome when he positioned us to not give up any future picks when moving up for josh/Edmunds and I think it just underscores his natural aversion to giving the next years picks up. Always room for a tendency breaker though. Can't wait to see on Thursday.

Move back, he's upset about no 3rd for Edmunds and wants to get some guys that can start in 2024 and maybe 2025 and to me that comes from quality picks early and easiest way to get more is to trade down in Round 1.

Agreed. I don't want a Whaley type move of stupidly giving away the store with trade ups, and McDermott did give away picks for Edmunds and Elam. I also think that quarterbacks AND receivers obviously benefit from very strong offensive lines. A quarterback like Josh can find any receiver given all day to throw. Your stats went back 20 years but the NFL is an increasingly offense oriented league, passing in particular. I think that the Bills should focus on wide receivers and blockers for depth. This would well serve to keep the Bills competitive. One last point.....I saw the blame that you placed on the Bills losses in recent big games, but you left out McDermott. I'm just sayin.....

Thanks. That's interesting. One thing about Allen is that he tends to speak in generalities, and in this case, as in many others, neither you nor I can be sure precisely what he means. My take on Allen has been that he is still learning how to process the game and to make high quality decisions, something that both Burrow and Mahomes excel in. Josh has, in my view, been improving year by year, and I think this season or next we will see the full-fledged star, the guy who can manage the game and also make plays like no one else. My take, therefore, has been that he's always been presented with relatively complex pro offense to run and that he just hadn't developed the skills to run it. So, when he wasn't sure what to do, he let his athleticism take over. The coaches may have been okay with that, because his athleticism was so great that it yielded good results. (Compare him to EJ Manuel, for example, who when he wasn't sure let his athleticism take over, but who wasn't nearly as talented as Allen. Pro football moved on from Manuel pretty quickly, but Allen survived because his talent was so great, his coaches have been patient with his execution of the offense.) What you and I don't know is the extent his coaches actually encouraged him to just create when the first or second option wasn't there. Whatever he did five years ago, I don't think they're encouraging him to do it any more. I mean, sure, when plays break down, he's going to scramble and create, but I don't think they want him doing that at a higher percentage than Mahomes does. These are the kind of conversations I would love to sit down and have with Brady or McDermott or Josh, to really understand what they're thinking. What do they think they need to win? Maybe even more than the offense, I'd love to hear McDermott about the defense because, frankly, I'm more puzzled about the defensive philosophy than the offense. That is, the offensive philosophy is, I'm sure, that if the Bills can get five skill players on the field with Allen and get them all to execute, the Bills will have a great offense because Allen gives them one extra skill player compared to virtually every other team. I think McDermott hoped Edmunds was going to be the X-factor, "we-have-him-and-you-don't" guy, but that didn't work. What is that McDermott thinks his going to give him a standout defense?

I hear you both that defense is a question mark. But then, last season with losing Edmunds and not having a clear cut MLB or Von Miller to start the season and with Tre White as a giant ? based on the end of 2022, I thought our defense was iffy and our offense would have to carry us (which, I thought it could) Turned out it was the other way around - our defense was solid until we lost Tre, DaQuan and Milano, with Floyd playing great in place of Miller and Tre back to his old form. Our offense was tenuous with splendid plays offset by miscues. I think the D will be O.K. provided Milano is back to form and we get SOMETHING from Von Miller besides interviews and podcasts. Both the guys we brought in at S (Rapp and Edwards) can play, so can Douglas and Benford. Injuries are a huge question right now, as we're thin behind the starters. I guess from that, my learning is I have more faith in McDermott and Beane to bring forward a defense that works no matter what and to add what they need if they don't, than I do in them to devote enough resources and have the right OC and players in place on offense.

Beck, I think you're talking about of both sides of your mouth. On the one hand, you say you want a stud #1 and you question what Beane is doing. On the other hand, you don't want to pay someone like Aiyuk, because it might go wrong. Well, trading up to get a stud might go wrong, too. One thing about Beane is that he's fearless. He wasn't afraid to trade up for Allen, he wasn't afraid to trade up for Edmunds, he wasn't afraid to deal for Diggs, he wasn't afraid to go get Miller. He's going to look at what opportunities he has, and he won't shy away from pulling the trigger. And I think you misperceive the reality of 2024 NFL offense. A true #1 may have been necessary in 2019, but multiple offenses last season, several of the best, operated without a true #1. One way to understand the difference between then and now is to think about whether you'd rather have Saquon Barkley or McCaffrey in you backfield. In my mind, it's quite clear that McCaffrey is much more valuable in current NFL offenses. Stud specialists, like Barkley and Henry, and I think Jefferson and Chase, aren't as valuable in offenses as guys who are multiple. That's why the Bills got Cook, and that's why the Bills got Samuel. And that's why Beane said he doesn't think he needs a true #1. He's looking for a talented guy who is smart, athletic, can run a complex route tree, can block, etc. etc. etc. If somehow a stud #1 falls to him, great, he'll take him. But he doesn't see it as a need. What he needs is another multi-talented guy to go with Cook, Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid. That's what McDermott and Brady have asked Beane to find. I remember when the Bills got Diggs, I was excited because it was, in my words, an upgrade at three positions. They got a true #1, they got a better #2 my sliding Brown into that role, and they got a better #3 by moving Beas to his natural position. Well, offenses don't have clear 1s, 2s, and 3s any more. Offenses are multiple. They want five skill players on the field, each of whom can attack all areas on the field. The 49ers are the best example. Neither Samuel nor Aiyuk was a true #1, but man, those two plus Kittle and McCaffrey cause headaches. That's what Beane is after.

I'm not going to go back through the press conference and find, but I think he said it very clearly. It was in the discussion about whether he needed to get a Diggs again, and yes, he said he didn't need to. He said, essentially, what I said a couple weeks ago - that the Bills are comfortable playing with a lot of good receivers without a stud. But as he was saying that, he also said something like, "of course, it's always nice to have one of those guys." I thought it was very clear - if a stud falls our way and he fits into our plans, then, sure, we'll do it. It's just that he doesn't feel the need to do it. He just needs another good contributor. When i was talking about it earlier, I said that one of Shakir and Kincaid and Samuel is going to go over 1000 yards, and all they need is another guy to get 500 or 600. I really think they're thinking that. That additional guy be a first or second round rookie who has the potential to become a #1 or it could be someone else. But, just as an example, if nothing breaks right in the draft, it could be D Hopkins or OBJ. They're going to do something. They need another receiver. The point is he DIDN'T say "we are NOT looking for a #1." He said everyone would like to have one of those studs, but the clear implication was that the Bills don't think they need one. What I said above is that if, and I have no idea whether it could happen, but if what the Niners need in a trade for Aiyuk is affordable to Beane will pursue it. He'd be crazy not to. And I'm not talking about next year's #1 - yes, he was clear, and I agree, that he should trade next year's #1. But this year's 1 and 2 to get a proven, stud receiver who could give the Bills one of the very best receiver groups for the next three years, I think Beane would pull the trigger on something like that. The bottom line is that he and McDermott are building a team. Spending here means they can't spend there. They make decisions like that all the time. They want a receiver. There are a lot of different kinds of receivers available. They're going to make a choice. Remember Beane talking about drafting Edmunds? He said preparing for that draft he went through dozens and dozens of scenarios, but none of the scenarios included getting Allen AND still have a shot at Allen. But it happened. What I'm really saying is that if the 49ers call on draft day with an offer, Beane and McDermott are going to try to figure out how to do it. All options are on the table.

Can they throw in Edmunds?? 😆

@Kirby Jackson, prepare to be disappointed IMO. Right or wrong to do it, looking at Beane and his history of round 1 suggests otherwise. Even his three largest moves to date (Diggs, Allen, Edmunds) are not even close to the level of this kind of monumental deal. He’s been historically more likely to move slightly in RD1. I’d be very surprised to see this happen and get to #4. Pair this with the cards reportedly asking for 3 #1’s….i just don’t see it.

I couldn't read the aricle becasue of the paywall, but that premise is correct IMO. The more swings you get in the draft, the better chances you have of getting a hit. Early rounds (1-3) render better athletes, so it obvously makes a difference where your picks lie. While I generally like Beane, I hate his draft philosophy of moving up to get "his guy." It costs us swings at the bat to get young cheap talent. Here are the early trade ups. QB you have to move up for, but the rest are very debatable how well we did. In 2018 he moved up for a QB, which worked out because the Bills were lucky nobody selected Allen before us. Edmunds cost us a 3rd (we got back a 5th). 2019 sent a 5th for Cody Ford. Gave up 2 4th rounders for Knox. 2020 trade for Diggs, sent a 1st, 5th, 6th, and a 2021 4th. Got a 7th back 2021 no trade up. 2022 Elam cost a 4th 2023 Kincaid cost a 4th.

So many variables if we took Mahomes at 10 though as could be debated we'd never gotten a 3rd for Tyrod as doubt Mahomes sits on bench his rookie year here. Also with no White on defense is it what we've seen? Do we still trade up for Edmunds or take another LB? I'll say it. I don't think Patrick Mahomes have the success we've seen him have in KC if we took him instead.

The 5th turned out to be Tommy Doyle and Edmunds lead to our extra 4th this year so the trade still keeps giving for us for now.

It's Edmunds with a hair cut

Exactly, I remember that most of this fan base wanted the Bills to trade up to the #2 spot with the NY Giants in 2018 to draft Josh Rosen! How much of a mistake would that have been by giving up the farm for a bum? It could happen at WR too. If this is a such rich WR draft class why feel the need to move up to get one as there are 12 WRs listed in DJ's top 50 players? https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2024-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-2-0 While other teams are scrambling to find that elusive franchise QB or pass rusher, or OT. Buffalo could sit tight and get a really good player at 28. OR trade back and pick up that extra 3rd rounder that they lost with the Edmunds moved from a 3rd to a 4th. The Green Bay Packers have made a living out of drafting WRs in the second round. What about Puka Nacua in the 5th last year? The only position that currently is worrisome to me is the center position by losing Mitch Morse, who called the offensive protections and was a stable force at that position since 2019 and was a pro bowler.