Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

One other thing the article didn't mention but from what I recall has also been a difference is injuries. Last two seasons we stayed pretty injury free. This year while only one season ending (Zimmer) have had a few more small ones and occurred at the positions the team can least afford.

14 of the 24 points were though of the offenses and ST own making.

I believe those were his exact words LOL

Well actually the paragraph following the mention about losing the close games kind of said the same thing, but used a slightly less graphic example. But did make the same point, think he was trying to say maybe last years team was a little lucky to have the 13-3 record too.

The article discusses a number of points many posters here are singling out as the issues and goes through a number of advanced stats and compares this season to last and most areas the numbers are similar; better point differential, better expected points added; deep ball is much better than last year, doing better against two deep than last year; top 10 in pass blocking win rate. Did comment on run game, while very bad, not really that much different than last season. Talks a little about the defense, but mainly article is about the offense. Where the differences are statistically: Interception rate and specifically what he calls untimely interceptions, Allen is 29th out of 37. Basically said if for the rest of the season Allen just were to throw league average of Int's they'd be much better 4th down conversion 3 for 10 this year, last year 8 for 10 Allen's accuracy, down from 2nd in league to 16th and way down on accuracy to Diggs. Penalties, ranked 27th there and believe lead the league in number called against. And one other point he mentions is close games: Last year, the Bills were 4-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer. This year, they’re 0-3. If that 0-3 were 1-2, we’d be looking at a 7-3 team. If it were 2-1, the Bills are probably being touted as a better version of last year’s squad and Super Bowl favorites. https://theathletic.com/2971174/2021/11/23/panic-time-for-the-bills-nope-heres-why-you-probably-should-still-believe-week-11-nfl-reality-check/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

I get your point , but it was more the opposite. The year they were coined the Bickering Bills, they took a step backwards and got knocked out earlier. After that they stopped the infighting and went to 4 Super Bowls. Yeah would tend to agree.

Read many times from both Daboll and Allen about how close their relationship is with each other. I wonder if that's part of the problem, they've become too close??

The one exception to that is QB's and Allen. He could easily last 10 plus years. Throwing QB's seem to making a comeback league wide so even after he's gone, could get another similar styled QB. So a dome isn't such a bad idea IMO. Actually was thinking a similar thing yesterday during the game.

Meant to say 4th season, my thinking was getting close to average length of career. To me the graph shows that once you remove the over achievers that have long starred careers and become the starters, most others that are left are role players that get replaced once on 2nd contract for cheaper and newer models

Often wondered, would the NFL be better off copying the NBA setup and have the draft prior to FA season? Looking at the Bills roster, if Beane had known he was drafting Groot and Basham first two rounds, would he have redone Addison's contract? Or Butler? Drafting three O lineman after also resigning Mongo and Williams made it hard to acquire much quality depth for O line. Brown and Doyle were both picked high enough, couldn't likely risk cutting either so kept them both plus five starters. Throw in Bates for versatility you already have 8 guys, that only leaves room for one more player likely to be an inside guy. Fortunately for the Bills they were able to move Williams inside, otherwise would really be a mess. In both these examples, having draft first would allow teams to make better FA choices? Admittedly would likely be harder to do in the NFL due to scheduling but I'm sure could be worked out. Combine early February, draft mid March, FA starts early April. Not sure NFLPA would ever go for this because of reasons I mentioned that it would solve, could instead result in free agents without a job or at best a lower paid one.

I'd tweak that slightly, sign top FA guard, and draft a G/C Draft a RB higher, or good FA with some good history. Probably easier to draft as cheaper and they have short careers anyway. Easier said than done!

Phillips was 4th rounder Moss a 3rd rounder, per chart below hard to call them busts. Likely too these numbers are skewed by a handful of low round superstars than play 10 plus years where as it's limited as to how far below average you can go. And also not ready to write off Ford either when you look at how little the guys really played in the past two seasons Beane wasn't even here when Jones was drafted.

Not sure there are any other players on the Bills roster who've been jerked around as much as he has in his 3 seasons here. In 2019 as a rookie played most of training camp and preseason at guard, think I recall even both guard positions due to injuries, then switched to tackle for the entire season. He played in all but one game, in 4 games less than 50% don't recall if that was due to getting nicked up or was he not starting yet early in the season. To expect a rookie to play guard all off season than move him to tackle is kind of amazing he did even half as well as he did. Not the best way to say welcome to the NFL. In 2020, they switched him to guard, but no off-season workouts, no preseason games, and a reduced training camp to start with. Judging by snap counts and a little memory he played: Week 1, played entire game Week 2, got hurt in Q3?? Week 3,4,&5 played all game Week 6 played a little more than half the game then got hurt Week 7 & 8 still out Week 9 played q1, got hurt and was out for rest of year 2021 Played 1st 3 games of season Week 4 played 10 snaps against Texans, did he get hurt or benched or are stats wrong?? Week 5 thru 7 DNP Week 8 played against Jax and struggled Week 9 DNP except at end Added up he's played a little over the equivalent of 10 games at guard, some missing time due to injury, some of his own making. Even in college played 1st and 2nd year at guard., then switched to tackle his senior year Overall IMO hard to really say he's a bust when played so little. He may never live up to 2nd round draft status, but that's not uncommon either, but may be salvageable too. The next play was the holding call, the play after was the Int, but looked like snap count was messed up on that one too as Morse snapped it, looked like before anyone else was expecting it. Best guard in the game may be a bit much. Tellers rookie year the Bills line was complete mess, they wanted experience and brought players in so weren't going to likely keep him over some of the other players they had. Best they could have done was cut him and hopped to sneak him onto PS. Believe the picks they got in return became Tyler Bass and part of the Diggs trade so not bad there either

Still feel if all teams healthy Bills have the most talented lineup top to bottom. That being said the one thing that brings out the worst in them is strong running teams like Tenn and Indy. Really only 11 teams in AFC with a chance at playoffs, so need to beat out 4 of them. AFC North, and West teams will beat each other up so that will help. So overall, still feel they make the playoffs and then who knows??

At least in the Jax game the defense played well. Today everything was bad, though all the turnovers certainly made it tough for the defense. Thought I saw stat 24 points off Bills turnovers??

The depth may be due to false sense of confidence as last two seasons had very few injuries, certainly not major ones so our depth wasn't tested very much. Will say too, the two positions I was most worried about today was Star being out and two offensive lineman out. Depth there is an issue, but still can't understand why the same top 7 looked so much better last year. Admittedly drafting two tackles hurt as they were drafted high enough 3rd and 5th, that couldn't risk cutting them, so had to place on 53. Add five starters, not much room left for depth players. They like Bates as he can play every position, so that only leaves one more slot. Factor in limited money and you got what we got. So now we have Doyle drafted high enough couldn't risk cutting him, but not good enough and experienced enough to play him either. I really thought they'd have found a way to stash him on IR all year, maybe do a Tonya Harding on him or something.

Sounds like a lot of Steelers fans there, but shouldn't be surprised by that. I mean I'm sure the Chargers have built up a huge local following in their two seasons in LA

The problem I have with the Oline is 7 of the same guys were here last season and they certainly while not great and did struggle running the ball, we had one of the top offenses in the league overall. Think it was a case of D line was higher priority and limited money to play with, do agree needs much work this off season. Tackles are OK, think Dawkins is not completely healthy. If I were running things would sign top FA guard, draft a guard/center high, bring back either Mongo or Williams as one inside starter, and also draft another one in maybe around the 4th as a backup. This is Fords 3rd season, his rookie year played most of pre-season at guard due to injuries, then played all regular season at tackle, they certainly didn't do him any favors in his development by jerking him around as much as they did. Last year they kept his at guard, again while not great, looked OK and assumption was learning. After no pre-season at all, he played week #1, got nicked up week 2 and played maybe 3/4 of game, came back played weeks 3,4,&5, then again got hurt week 6, maybe in 3rd or 4th quarter, sat out next two games, then came back played maybe 2 or 3 series, then got hurt and was out for the year. His lack of playing time made it tough on the team to evaluate whether he'd be an adequate starter this year or not. An in the limited he did play last season, looked ok and the hope was he'd improve with experience. But that hasn't seemed to have happened at all. Maybe there is something physically wrong with him still or again?? Many here will claim they knew he was terrible, but if these posters really knew these things, they wouldn't be posting here, instead working in the NFL. But his poor play has certainly handicapped the team this year as were counting on him to be at least a solid adequate player.

Maybe because he's seen them play?? In Bates case, it may be they don't want to risk an injury to their only backup center, and you have a starter with a history of concussions. But may have been worth the risk, though may also be they know the improvement isn't great enough to take the risk.

I'd let Star off the hook as rumor has it he's a Morman and vaccines are very controversial for their religion. Even if the NFL made vaccines mandatory, he'd be one of the few with a legit religious exemption request. But agree overall hard to be a SB competitive team and be one of the league leaders in least players vaxxed.

Yeah but none run at the level of either Indy or Tenn with Henry. Not certain is Henry done for year or could he be back for playoffs? Think we'll also win a game not expected to win. Tampa lost to Washington, Saints, to Eagles so they're not looking like world beaters either. If all teams are 100% healthy still think the Bills have the most talent top to bottom and in particular their starters.

Fixed your post for you. While not agreeing or disagreeing with you as to whether a ""kumbaya culture" is good or bad, I do think with the exception of Belichick the other three are of that mindset at least from everything I've seen.

It's hard for a team to be competitive when they may be the league leader or at least close to it in having the lowest percent of players being vaccinated. I think this is still a long ways off, could see players more lashing out at other players over personal decisions that places the team overall at a disadvantage. Allen also didn't do much to help himself today either, many passes were off. Granted the wind and rain didn't help and when behind forced to throw. But he was still off most of the game. Tough to play in this weather with a very limited running game, but if we did have a running game like Indy has then there would be more reason for Allen to become frustrated if not getting the chance to pass.

Apparently once you test positive and have had Covid according to Aaron Rodgers you're not tested for the next 90 days as testing would generate false results. Not certain this is true, thought do seem to recall someone else here confirming that is correct, so simple exposure may not be an issue. Do agree with their personal decisions creating the larger problem. Admittedly they could be vaxxed and still be out, but reduces the potential. Actually don't fault Star as rumor is he's a Morman and that getting vaxxed is very controversial within their religion. He may be one of a handful in the league if vaccines were to become mandatory, would have a legal exemption. Last week there were at least two or three threads all about how good and valuable AJ Klein is, now he's no good! LOL Not saying they shouldn't make a change but curious as to how you know we made "terrible personnel decisions" You don't know that based on what has been seen in practice that Doyle or Douglas are even worse. Bates may be better but then are playing our only backup center which is somewhat risky, but may have been worth the risk all things considered. Certainly easy for fans and the media to say they should change things without having any idea whether the changes will actually help or not. I do think if there were any positions that could least afford to have a starter out particularly today against Indy would be Star followed by two offensive lineman. If it were just Brown out, think we'd still have been OK, but once down to two backups we're in trouble. Having said all this still feel if every team in the AFC were 100% healthy including Buffalo, the Bills still may have the most talented roster overall. The two teams we'd likely still struggle with is Indy and Tenn as seem to struggle with run heavy teams.

One thing that happened this year that wasn't planned for and has never happened prior or at least other than a slight amount if ever, the salary cap decreasing. Could be that it's caused all teams to have to scramble to fill out the roster and they were OK to start the year, but once a couple injuries happen and you're down to subs, everything falls apart? Add on top of that a couple players being out for Covid on top of that. Not saying this is the reason, but does add some uniqueness to season.