jwhit34

Still believe that they will draft one in rounds 2-4 who will make the team and if Roberts is a given as return man that leaves McKenzie, D. WIlliams, Foster, Ray-Ray, maybe a round 6-7 draft pick or other vet FA to battle for the last spot in the WR group: 1. Diggs 2. Brown 3. Beasley 4. Draft pick round 2, 3 or 4 5. Roberts 6. Open competition (see above)

If the presumption is that they will keep 6 WRs: We know the top 3 spots are set (Diggs, Brown, Beasley) 1 will be for PR/KR Andre Roberts That leaves 2 spots: They will likely draft at least 1, my guess would be one in rounds 2-4 and then 1 more in rounds 5-7 The one from rounds 2-4 takes spot #5 Foster, Williams, low round draft pick and possibly a low $ deal free agent pickup battle for spot #6. Oh yeah and Ray Ray too. If the top 3 stay healthy, then they will play 90+% of the snaps so it becomes a who cares situation. The other thing that I think lends credence to this analysis is that they didn't make a qualifying offer to McKenzie, they have let him walk and may offer the vet minimum to compete if no one else takes him. Beane has mentioned how deep the WR class is so that is a strong indication that he will take at least 1, also his multi-year strategic bent will lead him to looking for a replacement as Brown and Beasley get to the end of their contracts.

Presuming it's Edmunds and not Edwards, I agree with all except Dawkins who should be better than last year. Also if you look at positions not people, all 3 WR positions are better: WR1 Diggs vs. Brown - better WR2 Brown vs. Beasley - much better WR3 Beasley vs. Foster/McKenzie/Williams/Roberts/Zay - way better

Was there ever any doubt he would be re-signing?

When looking at career stats I was underwhelmed by Gordon's numbers. Good receiving #s but pedestrian yards per carry and only 1 season with 1,000 yards. It all depends what they are looking for, a change of pace back, a really good receiver (I'd go with Dion Lewis in that case), someone with similar running style to Singletary, etc. They should draft one, but having the 1 year "prove it" deal back every year would be okay with me, in that case Lamar Miller could be interesting presuming his health is okay.

I consider late rounds #s 5-7, here are the picks by year: 2017: Matt Milano, Nathan Peterman, Tanner Vallejo 2018: Siran Neal, Wyatt Teller, Ray-Ray McCloud, Austin Proehl 2019: Vosean Joseph, Jaquan Johnson, Darryl Johnson, Tommy Sweeney Milano is a huge get, Neal is a probably a league minimum guy in future (many thought he wouldn't make the 53 his rookie year), rest of '17 and '18 are either out of league or barely hanging on. 2019 is TBD, but many thought Joseph would have been cut/practice squad if not injured, J. Johnson and Sweeney were inactive most of the year, D. Johnson shows some promise but no one really knows. Hopefully a couple become really good pros. I bring this us because a significant number of people expressed angst over the trading of late round picks in the Diggs deal and how good Beane is at finding gems in the late rounds. My take: They have done okay, nothing spectacular. Almost every team hits on a late round pick on occasion. One could make the case that Peterman, McCloud and Proehl were really bad picks. The Milano pick was excellent and inflates the perception of late round drafting success. So trading those picks are really worth it. Compare that to Bill Polian, who as GM oversaw 6 drafts (1986-91). Here is who he picked in late rounds that had NFL careers spanning around 100 games or more: '86 - Mark Pike (7th), Butch Rolle (7th) '87- Keith McKellar (9th), Howard Ballard (11th) '88-Jeff Wright (8th), Carlton Bailey (9th), Martin Mayhew (10th) '89-Richard Harvey (11th) '90- Marvcus Patton (8th), Mike Lodish (10th) '91-Mark Maddox (9th) Fewer teams and no comp picks back then though. His picks in 5th-6th rounds weren't very good. He's still the standard by which all Bills GMs are measured/compared.

Diggs changes so much on offense: If the Bills are in 11 personnel (Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Knox, Singletary) and send 5 out, defenses will probably commit 2 to Diggs. Are the other 4 all facing single coverage? It probably brings 6 DBs on the field - matchup advantage for Knox? On passing downs will defenses be forced to drop 7 into coverage and only rush 4? If so, that helps pass protection Teams cannot commit 7 and 8 "in the box" to stop the run - does this open up run lanes for Singletary? Knox could be a huge beneficiary - if D has to drop at least 2 deep for Brown and Diggs then intermediate (seam) routes open up for Knox especially if they send Beasley short and he has to be accounted for Tougher for teams to "spy" on Allen because they have to respect the receivers - more RPO opportunities? Does this open up the screen passing game? Now Allen has to develop and be respected as a passer, most of this dissipates if he doesn't take the next steps forward in his development. Knox's development is also important. Look at Austin Hooper's progression: Year 1: 19 catches 271 yds. 3 TDs Year 2: 49 catches 526 yds. 3 TDs Year 3: 71 catches 660 yds. 4 TDs Knox was 28/388/2 if he can get to at least 50-55/550-600/4 then the passing game is going to take off.

It's now a 55 man roster per new CBA. While it seems like there aren't a lot of spots left to fill, by my count there are probably 16-17 roster spots in play, about 38 locks. If there are 38 locks right now: 1. They have 64 on roster so the first group fighting for jobs numbers 26 2. They will have 7 draft picks (as of now) 3. That leaves 19 roster spots to fill out to get to 90 going into training camp (actually 20 I think they still get exemption for Wade). Locks on offense: QB: Allen, Barkley RB: Singletary FB: DiMarco WR: Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Roberts (return man) OL: Morse, Dawkins, Spain, Feliciano, Ford, Nsekhe, Long TE: Knox, Kroft, Sweeney Total locks on offense: 18 Special teams: Hauschka, Ferguson and a punter - 3 locks Locks on defense: DL: Hughes, Addison, Jefferson, Butler, Oliver, H Phillips, Star LB: Edmunds, Milano, Klein, Matakevich CB: White, Wallace, T Johnson, Norman S: Hyde, Poyer Total locks on defense: 17 That's 38, 17 spots left. Spots to fill: RB: 2 Yeldon likely, at least 1 not on roster yet. Wade is a wild card but far from done deal. Add vet FA and/or draft 1 WR: 2 more, will get at least one in draft then either add a free agent or maybe D. Williams or Foster. OL: 2 more to get to 9 maybe even keep 10 with the roster now at 55. Bates probably stays but depends if they pick up a minimum guy (Waddle) also think they draft at least 1. TE: Probably keep 4 so 1 more not convinced Lee Smith is here, could be cap casualty. DL: Add 2, probably keep 9, Murphy probably makes it but could see them cutting him loose, also have Darryl Johnson, if he shows promise they will want a developmental/young/cheap guy LB: 3 more, Joseph and Dodson in mix, could bring back minimum salary guys for 1-2 spots and draft one CB: 2 more, will draft 1, have SIran Neal who likely makes it S: Need 2 have J. Johnson who they seem to like, may draft 1, Marlowe is always out there. That's how I think it breaks down.

With Star, H Phillips and Oliver they need a 4th DT to play 30-40% of the plays. That's where you get a player like Cory Liuget for a lower price, a $1.5-2 million guy. And whoever you get will have a particular strength (vs. run or pass) and you strategically play them in the situations to take advantage of their strengths. I think they did that with Jordan Phillips and maximized his results and that led to both good productivity on the field and salary requirements that made it wrong to keep him, because now he's being paid to be an above average all around contributor and he will not do that in AZ (as many have pointed out he is not good vs. the run). This is an example of good cap management.

This is so smart by Beane, he has Allen on the rookie contract and instead of waiting for a draft pick to develop he gets a proven top notch WR on a cap friendly deal. We have been waiting for a GM who knows how to work the system, we have one. And it's not just Allen, they have key players on rookie contracts in White, Milano and Dawkins who combined cost less than $7 million against the cap. This is great cap management. Don't fret losing the late round picks, with the depth Beane has built he will probably trade someone like a Spencer Long for a 5th at cutdown time.

The player's terrific and the contract great essentially going to cost $11 million a year for 4 years and he's 26 so in his prime. The late round picks don't matter much as team gets better they have less and less chance of making team.

The reasons for my optimism for the line: 1. Three players should individually perform at least on par with 2019: Spain, Feliciano and Morse 2. Ford and Dawkins should be ascending/rising performance players 3. Continuity/familiarity should make the line better. That includes knowing the tendencies of the QB

My guess is they offered him two options, the restructured deal or releasing him. This is an okay option for the team, gets them out of the contract a year early. Probably not going after Hunter Henry or Hooper but doesn't preclude them from doing so because Knox is on a cheap 3rd round rookie deal. Kroft on roster for 1 year is a bridge to 2021 and a hedge in case Knox plateaus (I don't think that happens but it could).

Maybe Schopp and Bulldog will have a coronavirus state or country draft.

This move indicates to me that they think they are close and are going for it this year. They have the cap room and at a moderate cost they can bring in Norman and see if he has 1 good year left in him in a scheme in which he thrived. When a team does well, it's the type of move the pundits look back on and talk about how brilliant it was. As a ton of others have said they probably have it structured so if Norman gets to camp and he's done, they release him. If they were willing to part with McCoy, they will do it with Norman too. You have to take chances. The Patriots have done it all the time, Antoine Smith, Corey Dillon, Randy Moss, Albert Haynesworth, Antonio Brown, Revis, some work out, some don't but when you manage your salary cap and draft well it allows you to take calculated risks. That's the spot the Bills are in now, plenty of cap space, draft picks and no onerous commitments with current players, and with a 1 year deal there are no long term ramifications if it doesn't work out.

I don't know if Higgins is the right one, but the obsession with 40 times is amusing to me. I thought the consensus was that they needed a big target with a big catch radius to complement the shorter Brown and Beasley. I thought that is why so many have a crush on Duke Williams. There have been plenty of WRs who ran 4.6 or slower that had excellent NFL careers: Anquan Boldin 4.61 Jerry Rice 4.7 Larry Fitzgerald 4.63 Cris Carter 4.63 Speaking of Duke Williams, he ran a 4.7.

Lou Saban was inducted to the Wall of Fame in 2015. Bob Chandler - good story, fan favorite, stats aren't that great. On team for 9 years, was injured 1, so 8 seasons, had 295 receptions (37/year) for 3,999 yards (500/yr). High in yards for 1 season was 824. Wall of good, not wall of fame. In comparison, Eric Moulds is not on Wall of Fame yet and he had 675 catches for 9,096 yards so he's double that of Chandler. He is the next guy that should go in. Chuck Knox I say no because of record 37-36 isn't anything special. He's more name recognition. Ruben Brown and Bennett I would be good with. Phil Hansen is in with 61 sacks, Schobel had 78 so he probably deserves a look.

So with active roster at 55 and practice squad at 14, the teams take 90 to training camp and conceivably the net number of cuts will be only 21 (35 cuts to 55 but add back 14). It will put a premium on GMs signing undrafted free agents, futures deals and picking up vets at or around the league minimum to fill out rosters. While somewhat subtle, it could be a significant change in strategy in terms of roster building. Also will be interesting to see what positions are added with the increase from 53 to 55. Will more teams keep 3 QBs? I would expect not because of the lack of quality players at the position. I could see more offensive linemen kept, maybe an extra WR. On D, I could see extra DB.

Though you have to take all the lists with a skeptical eye, it seems pretty consistent that the Bills' free agents to be are not ranked very high: Shaq Lawson is usually in the 75-90 range of the top 100 Jordan Phillips doesn't make most list and if he does he's in the 90s I didn't see Quinton Spain on any top 100 list and is well down the list of guards It only takes one team to be interested but it would appear that all of the Bills' free agents will be at best 2nd tier types and may be waiting for a couple days to get the type of offers they may be hoping for. There seems to be a lot of D linemen on the market which may drive down prices for Lawson and Phillips. My guess at this point is that 2 of 3 are on the 2020 Bills and most likely Lawson and Spain which I would be good with.

Spend the money on Austin Hooper. Atlanta does not have a good cap situation (Spotrac shows $5.6 million in cap space) and that's after releasing Vic Beasley. There are so many examples of teams now with 2 good TEs have excellent passing attacks, like Philly with Ertz and Goedert, Balt with Andrews and Hurst and of course the original NE with Gronk and Hernandez (pre-murders). Add in KC and SF with great TEs. So many keep clamoring for the big target in the passing game and want to settle on Duke Williams, Hooper would be so much better than that. Price tag: probably about $10 million, maybe they structure a slightly more cap friendly deal in the $9-9.5 range. But the good thing is if they sign Hooper they can release Kroft AND Lee Smith, saving them $7 million on the cap. So for $3 million more they have Hooper vs. Kroft and Smith. Who wouldn't take that? AFter those moves they are still $79 million under the cap. As for blocking TE, they move Sweeney to #3, only keep 3 TEs and keep an extra OL and groom one of their backups to be essentially the 4th TE who just blocks. Dawkins has shown he can catch at goal line so you could use him. Lee Smith is always touted as one of the best blocking TEs in football but by definition isn't an offensive lineman going to be a better blocker than any TE? The other great thing about Hooper is that he's 25 years old, he's coming into his prime, another young, talented player. Last year they broke the bank on Morse, if I was to be willing to overpay for one player this year it would be Hooper. Statistics

Good move to reduce Star's #. As many have said, fair for both sides. They have stated multiple times that they want to bring as much of the team back as possible. With this restructure, I wonder if the next one could be Trent Murphy. 2020 is the last year of his deal, he has a cash # of $8.025 million, a cap hit of $9.775 million and a dead cap # of $1.75 million, which means they save $ 8 million if they release him. Maybe they go to him and give an option to extend 1-2 years to bring his number down to the $5-6 million range and say the alternative is they release him. My thinking is Murphy at $5.5 million is about fair value, if he doesn't want to do that then they release and save $8 million and deploy that elsewhere.

This is 2019 I'm one of those lucky ticket holders that are in the pink areas (lower section 135 to be exact) mine are going up from $1,130 to $1,215 per ticket (I have 4) so it's more like 7.5% or $8.50 per game. Hopefully they price the preseason at about $40-50/ticket so the in-season game prices are higher.

It looks daunting but maybe not as tough as it seems: Divison: Go at least 4-2: sweep Jets and Dolphins, ?Pats AFC West: 2 wins vs. Vegas, Chargers Broncos NFC West: 2 wins vs. Rams, Cards and Seahawks - that is toughest one but I think Rams and Seahawks will be down a bit Other 2 games are Tennessee and Steelers - at least split That's 9-7, figure out 1 more win (home vs. NE?) and 10-6 gets you in, may win division. I could see them going 3-1 vs. AFC west. A lot will happen in the offseason but as of today and presuming they continue to draft well and wisely spend the money they have under the cap, they should be able to contend with anyone.

I say no to Olsen, I want them to go big at TE, excellent TE play and having more than 1 is a successful trend in NFL. I still want Austin Hooper. Releasing Lee Smith and Kroft (which is doable if they have Hooper) make the net impact of Hooper on the cap of about +$3 million. And Hooper is 25. Build the young core. Knox and Hooper could have a 5-7 year run in Buffalo. I don't think it's a coincidence that the Super Bowl teams have Kelce and Kittle.

Players: Tom Cousineau Kelvin Benjamin Coaches: John Rauch (OJ a decoy?) Chuck Dickerson Front Office: Russ Brandon Stew Barber