jwhit34

Beane understands the moneyball aspect of the draft and the thing is that in terms of getting value out of draft picks (cap hit under rookie contracts) the positions it makes sense to draft in the first and second round are QB, WR, Edge rusher, OT and CB. The Bills' needs line up perfectly and look for a WR or DE/Edge rusher in the 1st and one of those two or OT in the second. If they feel strongly about someone at those positions I have not problem with them trading up to around 14-17. #22 in the trade value chart (drafttek) is 780 points, #16 is 1,000. Their 3rd rounder is 160 points so that gets them close. Otherwise sit tight and most likely they will have good options.

Very thorough analysis MAJ. I agree that Spain will not cost $10M, if the price gets that high they let him go. There are only 10 guards in NFL making $10M. With the final landing spot for Ford in question, I think they keep Spain on short (1-2 year) deal at modest money ($5-6M) which put him in range of comparable players in the league. He made $1.9 million in his last year with Tenn. and $2 million with Bills and he's 29 years old. The way Beane went about re-building the line gives insight on how he values the various positions. They used a high draft pick for Dawkins (LT) and spent a lot on a center. The guard positions they went quantity and middling quality (Long, Spain, Feliciano). If Ford ends up being better inside that gives them value on his rookie contract and buys them time to see how he develops, that is why Beane hedged in PC and part of the reason he said they like his versatility. So they have fair value in Feliciano, could get very good value if Ford is at G and then let's see what they value RT at.

While there was huge volume of free agent signings last year the one big one they targeted and did not let get away was Mitch Morse. This year it should be Austin Hooper. He is an offense changer and they should be as aggressive with him as they were with Morse. Cutting Kroft and Smith free up almost enough $7 million to offset a $9-10 million cap # for Hooper. To me that's a no brainer - add Hooper and cut Kroft and Smith and you still have $87 million in cap space.

You have to be good at your job, but fit/chemistry can be the X factor(s) in making you great at what you do or a company/organization great. Lou Saban was a terrific coach and had excellent results but the fit was never quite right so it was two terms of some great results (AFL titles, OJ's best years) but almost as quickly a crash and burn. Marv Levy had a great relationship with Ralph Wilson and Bill Polian (and John Butler). That was a great fit organizationally and there was staying power. Probably the best example in the NFL in terms of competence and long term fit is the Steelers since they have had 3 coaches in the last 40+ years. I see the same thing here with McDermott and Beane with the Pegulas and their relationship with the community and their players. It is a good fit and they are good at their jobs. And they approach building the roster by acquiring good players that fit, not just the most talented but first and foremost they have to be able to play. For decades the Yankees have been the best team money can buy but the years that they have won championships are not necessarily the years they had the best talent.

Spain was okay, but I think ultimately the line would be much better if they moved Cody Ford to G and got a really good RT. Dawkins-Ford-Morse would potentially be as good if not better than rookie Dawkins-Incognito-Wood (because Morse>Wood and Dawkins yr 4>rookie Dawkins).

The Bills have: 42 players under contract for 2020 12 Unrestricted free agents including Lorenzo Alexander and Frank Gore (others: J. Phillips, K. Johnson, S. Lawson, Q. Spain, L. Waddle, M. Alexander, J. Stanford, K. Coleman, C. Liuget, S. Perry) 1 Player with a club option for 2020 Spencer Long) 3 Restricted free agents (I. Asiata, I. McKenzie, D. Marlowe) 3 Exclusive rights free agents (R. Foster, L. Wallace, J. Croom) 9 2020 draft picks (their own 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, Cleveland's 5th & 6th, Patriots 6th) Estimated $89 million in cap space If I was GM, this is what I would try to do: Cap casualties: Of the 42 under contract, I would release: Tyler Kroft - projected $6.4 mill. cap #, $1.6 dead money for $4.8 mill. cap savings Trent Murphy -$8.95m cap #, $1.75m dead money for $7.2m cap savings Pat DiMarco - $2.35m cap #, $500k dead money for $1.85m cap savings Total cap savings: $13.85 million giving them about $104 million under the cap Spencer Long: He's on a club option and under contract for 2 years, either tack on a year in a cap friendly structure or decline the club option and take the $700k in dead cap, his cap # is over $4 million for 2020. Their UFAs Use the $ from the cap casualties to re-sign Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson. This may take a little more than $14 million, but if it's $16m so be it, that would still leave $88 million under the cap. They would have 7 DL under contract, 8 counting Taylor. If Jordan Phillips doesn't re-sign, sign Cory Liuget, he can probably be had for around $2 million Quinton Spain - it depends. If they move Cody Ford to G and go after a top notch T in free agency or high in the draft then they can let him go. He likes it here, he would be one that I would continue to give 1 year deals at modest money ($2-4 million). Kevin Johnson maybe a 2 year deal at modest money, he's a depth player now. Let Gore retire, all the others if you sign them fine, but they are bottom of the roster guys who will cost between the league minimum and $2 million, they will either sign them of find others just like them. RFAs Make qualifying offers for McKenzie and Marlowe, if they stay okay, if not, okay. McKenzie will probably stay. ERFA I think they hold all the cards with them, can sign all to modest deals. Wallace will be interesting, I'd keep him but wonder how much he will cost. Free Agent Market WR: Not a lot to pick from, Amari Cooper longer term or AJ Green on a 1-2 year prove it deal. OT: Also not a lot of choices of players under 30, Costanzo is 32 and probably the best player but would think he stays with Colts. Maybe Jack Conklin TE: I would make Austin Hooper a priority, he's 25, pair him with Knox and that can be a dynamite duo. Hunter Henry is a good one too but I would go hard after Hooper. OLB: I don't have a name but they need a 3rd LB who would play 40-50% of snaps, find a $3-4 million guy and draft someone in round 4-5. They can probably get all 4 of these for no more than $40 million, maybe a little higher if they land Cooper, which leaves them still way under the cap Unlike 2019, 2020 can be about quality not quantity. Draft Rounds 1 & 2: DE and WR - they are need positions and if you hit on these they are value picks for 3+ years. Rounds 3, 4 & 5: LB, OL, CB, RB, best player available Round 6: Best player available Draft choices will probably count about $9-10 million on cap. Long term deals: Start signing your own.

Looking more than a year ahead isn't very relevant because 2021 will be impacted by the 2020 signings. Just focus on 2020 and once we get to June or July and the roster takes shape (free agent signings, draft picks, trades and signing their own) only then will 2021 start to take shape.

They significantly upgraded the WR position this year but it's not where it needs to be and I am sure Beane and McDermott know that. Plan options: Plan A: If they can sign Amari Cooper (probably a long shot), do it. Plan B: If AJ Green ends up having to take a 1 year prove it deal because of his age and injuries. Regardless draft 1-2 WRs, it's a deep draft. Pick one in the 1st or 2nd round, one in the late round because it's a deep draft. A WR corps of Brown, Beasley, Cooper/Green and a top draft pick that's a good group (plus Roberts for returns). Late round draft pick, McKenzie and Williams fight it out for WR6 spot.

Interesting how The Athletic points out all the deficiencies for Duke (running route short, 2 drops, missed block) and then states that he should play. Duke's blocking is often cited on this board as an additional reason to play him. Prediction: Duke WIlliams doesn't make the team in 2020. I think they will sign a WR in free agency and draft 2, 1 in first or second round and one in late rounds because the position is stacked in the draft. If they keep 6 WRs they will be: Brown Beasley Free agent WR 1st or 2nd round draft pick Roberts (for return game) McKenzie or late round pick Duke will follow in the great TBD Stadium Wall tradition of Brandon Reilly, Da'Rick Rogers and Naaman Roosevelt and drift into oblivion after the board clamoring for more snaps.

Both have been inactive for weeks don't hold your breath. Yeldon is redundant with Singletary effective in the pass game and the continued fascination/infatuation with Duke Williams on this board amazes me. He's Brandon Reilly (currently XFL), Naaman Roosevelt, Da'Rick Rogers and Colby Listenbee all rolled into one.

It's more likely that Cincy loses, then if Bills win tonight and next week Fitz does Buffalo a favor and has one of his games and beats NE. Bills beat Jets and win division

I like the idea of 2 divisions in each conference. If it stays a 16 game schedule: Play every team in your division once (7 games) Play 5 teams from the other division in your conference once - 1 game vs. the team that finished in the same place in other division and then rotate the others. Play 4 teams from the other conference once - on a 4 year rotation. If they expand to 17 games, make it 5 games against the other conference. Playoffs: Keep at 6 teams in each conference, the division winners and then the next 4 best records. The division winners get a bye.

Has to be Norwood, best alignment with Buckner. Buckner makes the play, series is over. Norwood makes the kick, Bills win Super Bowl. Buckner's play was more routine vs. a 47 yard FG but it's a very makeable kick. Norwood was only 37-61 for his career from 40-49 yards (61%). I was surprised to see Christie was only 67% (77-115) for career though 70.4% for Bills. Even Rian Lindell was only 68% for the Bills and 67% for his career from 40-49.

Per Spotrac Kroft dead cap in '20 is $1.6 million. If they could upgrade with Hooper that would be worth it, he's really good. Kroft contract is a good example of Beane/front office structuring contracts in a prudent way. His base salary next year is $4.5M but had only a limited amount in guarantees thus only $1.6M in dead cap if released. Hooper, Knox, Brown, Beasley and either FA WR or 1st round WR pick plus Singletary out of backfield - now you've got weapons.

Current Starters - Unrestricted FA's: Jordan Phillips - Re-sign - 11 mil Lorax (Retiring) Kevin Johnson - Re-sign - 5 mil Shaq Lawson - Let him test the market (probably not re-signed) Quinton Spain - Re-Sign - 7 mil Frank Gore - Let Go Kurt Coleman - Re-Sign - 3 mil Corey Liuget - Re-Sign - 4.5 mil Dean Marlowe - Re-Sign - 2 mil Isiah McKenzie - Re-Sign - 3 mil Levi Wallace - Re-Sign - 8 mil Robert Foster - Re-Sign - 3 mil Duke Williams - Not enough room on roster, drafting a WR Total Spent on Re-Signings = 46.5 Mil It's a good strategy to retain your own good players but not good to overpay them. That's how the team can end up back in salary cap jail. Way over valued a lot of players: Q. Spain - At $7 million he would be the 13th highest paid G in the league. He's had a nice season but the Bills are not going to pay him 2x what they pay Feliciano (who has a #3.5M cap hit). He's at $2 mill this year, maybe he gets $3.5-4 mill. If not, the 2020 guards could be Feliciano and Ford. J. Phillips - Now you can say he's worth as much as Star L. but there's only 7 DTs making $11 mill. or more (cap hit). He's in for a nice payday, but he's not going from $4.5 to $11 Million. The other consideration here is that they have Star, Ed Oliver and Harrison Phillips and they have Phillips and Liuget in need of new contracts. I bet they only sign one they only need 1. L. Wallace and K. Johnson - At $8M that puts Wallace in the top 25 cap hits for CB. At $5 mill. Johnson would be top 36. Wallace at $5 and Johnson more like $3 million (he's at $2.7 this year), he's your 3rd or 4th best CB. K. Coleman - He's a vet minimum guy at this point in his career (which he is in '19) if you bring him back, which is doubtful. I. McKenzie & R. Foster - Check out Spotrac and see all the WRs at $3 million - I like both these guys but $3 million is top 55 WR money. They are the 3rd and 4th best WRs on the team, and I think both are restricted or exclusive rights FAs so they are $1.5-2 million players. They have 23 receptions combined for less than 300 yards. D. Marlowe - When the team is healthy he doesn't make the 46 active player roster. Any player in lots 47-53 is a minimum contract player, not $2 million a year. I think I just saved you almost $20 million. I would not be surprised to see them sign most of them but also brace yourself for losing some of them. Look at the salary hierarchy in the league, the top players get a disproportional share of the cap, rotation players or solid pros get very middling money. Players that would be ranked in the bottom 10-13 of the 53 man roster get vet minimums. That's just the way it goes. There's a lot of players with similar ability.

With the ability to talk to the QB until 15 seconds are left on the play clock, every team should go no-huddle. This seems like such a big advantage for the offense particularly diagnosing defenses and controlling their ability to substitute on top of dictating tempo. What are the downsides that I'm missing?

The top 5: Levy 112-70 Saban 68-45-4 Knox 37-36 Phillips 29-19 Jauron 24-33 McDermott 23-20 When you have 18 different coaches in 60 seasons and two guys (Levy, Saban) coached almost 1/3 of the games (299 of 911), then no one is racking up a lot of Ws. The top 4 are the only coaches in Bills history with a winning record. McDermott would be the 5th if he can keep it up. It's also telling the next group after McDermott in career wins are all from the drought years: Gregg Williams 17-31 Chan Gailey 16-32 Saint Doug 15-17 Rex Ryan 15-16 Mike Mularkey 14-18 Harvey Johnson, Jim Ringo and Hank Bullough combined to go 9-60-1. McDermott will be at #3 pretty soon... This is regular season wins only Levy has 11 playoff wins, Saban has 2 and Knox 1.

At this point you want Houston, KC and Baltimore to win as many as possible (except obviously when Baltimore plays Buffalo). If Houston sweeps Tenn. then Titans have 7 losses. If you think that's likely then you want Titans to beat Indy next week. If Ravens beat Browns and sweep Steelers both Pitt. and Clev. have 7 losses. If Bills beat Steelers that would be 8 losses for Pitt. If KC beats Oakland then Raiders have 6 losses. Indy also plays New Orleans (and Carolina) if they lose to Titans and Saints that's 7 losses for them. All of the above are probably likely to happen. Oakland has a mixed bag - KC, Titans, Jax, Chargers & Denver. They aren't good enough to go 4-1 so they are probably 9-7 at best. Buffalo gets to 10 and they are in and probably the 5 seed.

Foster did not get any offensive snaps vs. Miami so he would have to take snaps away from the other 4. Having only played in 3 games, made 6 receptions and played about 120 snaps, to assert that he blocks, catches and high points the ball are merely conjecture.

Duke Williams continues to be the 6th best WR on the team behind Brown, Beasley, McKenzie, Roberts and Foster. And only 5 are active on game day. Duke starting to look like he will join the ranks of Da'rick Rodgers, Brandon Reilly, Naaman Roosevelt, Dezmin Lewis, Kolby Listenbee and many others of fan-obsessed, marginal to sub-standard NFL WR talent to spend time with the Bills. I think it all dates back to Don Beebe, who had a decent NFL career but was way overvalued by Bills fans. He had 164 receptions for the Bills in 6 years, never had more than 40 and capped out ta 554 yards.

He's had a terrific year. The only WRs that interest me in 2020 free agency are: AJ Green (age 32) and Emmanuel Sanders (33): Because of age and in Green's case injury, could sign to 1-2 year deal and draft a WR in 1st round, either of these guys end up being a short-term solution. Amari Cooper (26) and Robbie Anderson (27): In their primes age-wise, would cost a lot and be a long term commitment. I'm lukewarm on Anderson and Cooper is probably a low probability but I would be good with them breaking the bank for him. Cooper-Brown-Beasley in 2 WR sets would be awesome, then having Singletary out of backfield and hopefully development of Knox at TE then you really have weapons. But if they got Green for 2 years and hit on a WR in the 1st round that could work too. Devante Parker wouldn't be too bad either, maybe not a true #1 but Parker and Brown as 1B and 1A could be pretty good.

The top record would get a bye and the 3 other division winners would host the playoff games vs. the 3 wild cards. The league will want to preserve the value of winning the division.

TV has the 7 second delay not the radio

My thought here is if they have Tre cover Beckham the entire game and he can neutralize him one-on-one, then: 1. They can provide safety help to Levi Wallace on Landry 2. They can commit more defenders to stopping the run A second key is Milano and Edmunds' ability in pass coverage on Chubb and Hunt. Njoku out helps because the TE isn't much of a threat.

With everyone healthy, I think the first 4 are easy: Boettger Bates Sweeney Vosean Joseph The other 3 will be a DB, WR and DT best guess: Marlowe (outside chance it's Coleman) Duke Williams (Foster stays and they use McKenzie a lot) Taylor Though Yeldon is a good possibility too. Maybe that's how they get 5 DTs active