jwhit34

Probably go vet minimum salary to go from $4M to $1M and the $3M becomes signing bonus spread over 3 years so gives $2M cap relief. Diggs, Hughes, Brown and Morse all prime candidates for similar move (extension, restructure), probably could save $10-14 million on cap if all 4. The thing is cap will go up a lot in future years if 100% fans and then new TV contract so moving salary to future years isn't necessarily delaying the inevitable, it's shifting cap impact to years that will be more manageable.

In regards to the notion that the team over-performed in 2020: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs had career-best years (I'm not saying career years because both are young and have a good chance to perform at that level or better). Beasley had a career year. I don't think anyone else had a career best or career year (never to be duplicated). So by definition you cannot have 3 players at peak performance and 50 at or below their potential and say they over performed. Maybe if you want to add a 4th you can include Bojorquez, but for a guy who punted 41 times I don't think that puts the team in the over perform category. Spending in free agency: The nature of free agency (open bidding on players) is that way more times than not a player is overpaid. It's just the way it is. Every team misses on free agents. Murphy and Kroft were misses, the others, particularly Morse, Star, Brown, maybe Matakevich, have been productive but probably overpaid by varying degrees. You have to be good in the draft, undrafted free agents, etc. and get value so it gives you some leeway in free agency to probably overspend a bit. It's like your own personal budget, if you have some level of discretionary income there are things that you purchase that are a value but there are things you want a little more and are willing to overspend on them, whether it's cars, your house, maybe you're into wine, heck even sporting event tickets. You afford yourself those luxuries because you're good with your money on other things.

How likely is it that the Bills kick off the 2021 NFL season by playing at Tampa Bay on Thursday (opening) night? Just a few juicy storylines in that one. That would be fun.

This probably will not be a very popular opinion... I see a lot of similarities in fans' feelings about Feliciano and Jordan Phillips. There are many that overvalue both of them because they are very demonstrative on the field, have a fiery attitude. I think that blinds some when it comes to evaluating their performance. Excluding 2019, Phillips has had a journeyman's career: 5 years, 69 games, 7.5 sacks, 15 TFL, 2 FFs. Feliciano was a backup for the 4 years he was with the Raiders, never taking more than 22% of the snaps in a season. Like Phillips, he had a career season in '19 and also like Phillips, he was hampered by injury in '20 and only played in 9 regular season games (ironically same # as Phillips). Phillips got rewarded for his one good season with a 3 year, $30 million contract. Beane was wise to let him walk. Feliciano? He is a nice player, but has limitations. As several people posted, maybe his biggest attribute is his versatility. In a normal year, someone would overpay him in free agency like the Cardinals did for Phillips. The Bills may luck out between teams being cap challenged and Feliciano possibly taking a hometown discount. But Beane will not and will be smart not to overpay. Is Feliciano 20%, 40% better than Cody Ford? Let's say he's 30% better, Ford has a cap # of about $2 million. That makes Feliciano worth about $2.6 million comparatively if he starts over Ford (I know Ford seems slotted at LG but...). If Feliciano is going to get at least $6 million, he's not 3x better I know that's cold, but that's the business.

Pretty nice when your QB and coach are runner up, OC wins assistant coach of year and DC also gets a vote. And in other voting, the GM wins Exec of the Year. That's quite a year. Congrats to all

While Frazier and Daboll get attention for HC jobs, quietly Heath Farwell is making a big difference on special teams. He also deserves credit on Bass, from what I recall he met with him just before Covid shut down everything in terms of in-person visits/pro days. Farwell's recommendation was a big reason they drafted him. It will be interesting to see Farwell's career trajectory, not a ton of special teams coordinators get head coaching jobs. The biggest names are John Harbaugh and of course Marv Levy, Joe Judge with Giants is the most recent.

Even from just a cap perspective, cutting Singletary is a bad move, it costs the Bills money. He has a $1.1 cap number in '21. If released, his dead cap $ is about $518k. Right now they count the top 51 salaries. Player 52 for the Bills has a cap number of $780k. So here's the comparison with or without him: Keep Singletary: Cap hit $1.1 million Cut him: Player 52 cap # $780k + dead cap from Singletary $518k = Cap hit of $1,298,000 So cut him and it costs the Bills almost $200k more against the cap vs. keeping him. He may not be the #1 back but they can do far worse as a #2 or #3 and cutting him hurts the cap situation. Bad idea all around.

We have a friend that played rugby at Northwestern when Tasker was there. He said the first time Tasker showed up for rugby they found out in about 10 seconds that he was such a superior athlete compared to the rest of them, like he was playing a totally different game than they were. Very cool watching those highlights, I remember most of those plays, especially the hit on the punt of the Rams guy, I remember being at that game in particular.

Crosby Beasley, Gabe Stills, Nash Diggs & Young Brown

I just looked at the cap page and the primary takeaway is that the Bills/Beane have done a masterful job so far structuring contracts. Outside of the cornerstones they have identified (White, Dawkins, Diggs and soon Allen and Edmunds), they can get out of almost any contract without a huge dead cap hit. Three prime examples: Jefferson, Butler and John Brown. All would have about a $1 million dead cap hit but if they want to move on from any they can save $7-9 million each. Morse would be a $5 million dead cap hit but they would still save $5 million. Bottom line is they have a good track record now and I think they will figure out how to keep everyone they want to keep.

This is an excellent synopsis. Here are my calculations, presuming that the league bumps the cap up to around $200 million, leaving them $80 million over: Brees retiring saves about $13.5 million Releasing Kwon Alexander saves $13.4 million Releasing Sanders saves $6.5 million Taysom Hill is prime candidate for restructure, release would save $5 million, restructure potentially more, call it $7 million The above 4 saves $40.5 million, halfway there That's where it gets tough: Oline possibilities: Ramczyk ($11m), Armstead ($5.6m), Nick Easton ($6m) Janoris Jenkins cut would save $7m, restructure less, M. Brown cut would save $5m Probably can find 4-5 more that will save an average of $2m each If you notice there are a lot of players who if released their dead cap is close to equal or even more than the cap hit if on the roster. The years of restructure and going for it while they have had Brees is really coming back to bite them now. While they have been able to restructure their way out of it in the past I think they will have to make far tougher decisions this offseason and they could be pretty bad in 2021. Problem is they have 46 under contract so if they release 8-10 from above now they have 36-38 players so at least 15 roster spots to fill. They need money for their draft picks and to fill the rest of the roster spots, so they would probably need at least $20 million. They will have to get very creative.

It is interesting to hear many talk about how great the BIlls' weapons are in the pass game. It's amazing that it is a collection of WRs that in some way no one else wanted: Stefon Diggs: A 5th round pick, granted the Bills gave up a first round pick plus others (which may or may not amount to anything) but at some level Minnesota decided they didn't need him anymore and wasn't part of their future so they traded him. John Brown: Originally a low 3rd rounder, both Arizona and Baltimore didn't see the need to retain him (and it wasn't like there was a logjam at WR in Baltimore). Cole Beasley: Undrafted FA, he had a very good career at Dallas and they had a lot of WRs, but still it wasn't like he was a super hot free agent two years ago Gabriel Davis: 4th rounder Isaiah McKenzie: 5th rounder, cut by Denver, waiver claim Credit the talent evaluators for seeing something in each of them, the coaches for figuring out how to use their talents and out how to make them mesh, and mostly the players themselves for taking full advantage of their opportunity in Buffalo (and that of course includes Josh Allen). It's pretty neat.

Here are the QB stat lines for the Bills 2 playoff games: BIlls vs. Colts Comp Att Comp % Yds Yds/Att TD Int Rush Yds TD QBR Allen 26 35 74% 324 9.3 3 0 11 54 1 85.0 Rivers 27 46 59% 309 6.7 2 0 1 -1 0 92.1 Bills vs. Ravens Allen 23 37 62% 206 5.6 1 0 7 3 0 51.0 Jackson 14 24 58% 162 6.8 0 1 9 34 0 55.6 Not only are Allen's stats better in both games, does anyone watching either game, based solely on what they saw, conclude Rivers and/or Jackson outplayed Allen? No way. In the Colts game, Allen is superior in every statistical category and vs. the Ravens the only stat that Jackson's better is yards per attempt (and more rushing yards). It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this.

Interesting that the openings are now down to 4: Houston Detroit LA Chargers Philadelphia Houston and Detroit have been open for the longest, they must be waiting for someone still in the playoffs which would most likely mean Bieniemy, Leftwich or Daboll. It is interesting that there is now talk that Chargers will go with a defensive coach since they have gone with offense guys since 2006. It only takes one, but the chance Daboll gets one of the jobs is shrinking fast.

Also on the 50+ kicks, he was 4-6 but one was the 61 yarder, so really he's 4-5 from 50+ which puts him just slightly higher than the survivor rookies' 77%. When you have a relatively small sample size, which is the case with the > 50 yarders (Bass had 6, average survivor kickers 3.84) 1 data point skews the percentages. Bottom line: Bass is good. One of the family favorite movies is Remember the Titans so of course we refer to the Bills kicker as Ronnie Bass (backup QB - Sunshine).

Injured this year but 2019 he had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage (650 run, 410 pass). If all are healthy, my ranking is: 1. Freeman 2. Yeldon 3. Williams 2021 season? Give Williams a shot to be in the mix.

Interested to know what everyone thinks, right now I am picking none. The only job he seems to be one of the top candidates for is the LA Chargers and I don't think he's going to get that one either. My current guesses: Atlanta - Raheem Morris Detroit - Robert Saleh Jacksonville - Bryon Leftwich or Urban Meyer Houston - Eric Bieniemy NY Jets - Doug Pederson Philadelphia - Probably go with a defensive coach, either Eberflus or maybe Marvin Lewis, but they are a wild card Chargers - If Meyer gets Jacksonville, Leftwich, if not Arthur Smith or Daboll but I'm leaning Smith

The thing that would make a deep playoff run sweeter for many on TBD: Christian Wade and Duke Williams active vs. the Ravens. I'm surprised people didn't want them to bring in Da'Rick Rogers last week for Colts intel...even though it's been a few years. I still don't see it with either of them.

So here's all the open HC jobs: Detroit Atlanta Philadelphia Jacksonville NY Jets LA Chargers Houston Here are the hottest coaching names (in no order): Brian Daboll Eric Bieniemy Robert Saleh Byron Leftwich Arthur Smith Matt Eberflus Greg Roman And the B list of guys that may be tied to a specific opening: Raheem Morris (Atlanta) Urban Meyer (Jacksonville) Marvin Lewis Now add Pederson to the mix per the ESPN "Matchmaker" game, the best matches by team: Detroit - Saleh and Lewis B+ lead the way Atlanta - Morris an A Philadelphia - Saleh and Eberflus B- Jacksonville - Leftwich an A, Lewis and Smith A- NY Jets - Saleh, Leftwich are a B though a lot of chatter for Pederson now LA Chargers - Daboll, Smith, Bieniemy are As with Leftwich slightly behind A- Houston- Bieniemy, Leftwich are As So if you give the job to the best fit: Atlanta - Morris NY Jets - Pederson? Jacksonville - Leftwich Houston - Bieniemy Detroit - Saleh Philadelphia - Eberflus? Which leaves the Chargers for either Smith or Daboll. The point here is that probability of Daboll leaving may not be that high, and may be only the Jets and Chargers. It seems like Leftwich, Bieniemy, Saleh and Pederson would fill 4 of the 7, and if Morris gets Atlanta that only leaves 2. If Meyer takes Jacksonville, then it's down to 1 and you've got a lot of guys gunning for either the Chargers or Eagles job.

I was at the game and it was pretty clear watching him walk on and off the field that the injury still bothered him. He wasn't limping but he definitely wasn't close to 100%. I don't know how many snaps he played but he made the most of them - 7 targets, 7 receptions says it all. I thought it was a very gutsy performance that has flown a little under the radar.

I the more relevant comparison is to this year's Pittsburgh game. Indy has a better run game but if the D is defending the short passes that brings 8-9 "in the box" and helps defend the run too. If Indy goes that route the Bills can play run first and short passing game second and that would probably be the most effective strategy.

It's not Daboll's playbook it is the Bills' playbook and of course it stays here. If they don't promote from within McDermott could require an OC from outside to keep the same playbook. There are always tweaks to it every year. I'm thinking the "playbook" if it actually printed out an in a 3 ring binder has a Bills logo on the cover, not a picture of Daboll.

Everyone on the offensive coaching staff right now is an "expert" in Daboll's system, particularly Dorsey who has operated in it for 2 years now. When the OC leaves you don't have to scrap the existing system, it is actually the Buffalo Bills' system, not Daboll's. The biggest expert, however, is Josh Allen and there is no reason to change it now. If Daboll leaves, I would bet money it's Dorsey's job and he'd want it because he'd know that if he's successful he'd be next in line for a head coaching job.

Got 2 seats and in my normal section (135) which is pretty cool.

So agree...of course I read through about 3 pages of comments...