jwhit34

2 years, $10 million contract total is $5 million a year. On the bulk of that one would pay NY and federal marginal income tax rates of 10% and 37%, respectively, add in the surtaxes and payroll taxes and you're easily at about 52%, maybe deductions take it down to 50% so for easy math you net 50% or $2.5 million per year or $5 million over 2 years. Even with a high cost lifestyle while playing maybe you're spending $400k/year so $10 million - $5 million taxes - $800k spend leaves a net $4.2 million. A relatively conservative investment strategy should be able to net you at least a 5% return which would be $210k/year. So that is not generational wealth but a nice amount to produce annual income to live on without touching principal. What would be considered generational wealth? Enough that you can pass on to the next generation and maybe next two generations where they would not have to work (not that you would want them to work, but they wouldn't have to). You also have to consider while you could probably live comfortably on $100k or so, I think the implication of "generational wealth" is that you are living a much more luxurious lifestyle without working. You're probably looking at a lifestyle that costs at least $500k per year. If you have 2 kids, you need assets that would generate $1 million of income per year. At a 5% return that would be $20 million. All in all a different realm than most of us live, hard to relate or fathom.

The defensive concepts/approach is McDermott's, not Frazier's, so if Frazier leaves the defense really will not change that much. When the head coach is a defensive coach it is important/critical that: He and the DC are in alignment on scheme/concepts/approach The assistant coaches are excellent teachers (this is true in general), they need to know how to teach the schemes/concepts The continuity on the Bills' staff over the past 3-4 years is extremely rare so this assistant churn is normal. They have a good track record of finding assistants and being on the BIlls' coaching staff right now is very attractive. They will find good assistants. Exhibit A for that is the OL coach.

If the Germany and Mexico games are any indication, I think the league is moving towards having each team play 8 home, 8 away and 1 neutral site game. That probably makes a lot of sense in the long run, maybe that 5th inter-conference game ends up being the neutral site game.

The #1 overall pick will not be a QB for only the 4th time since 2010 (Myles Garrett-'17, Jadaveon Clowney-'14 and Eric Fisher-'13). Aidan Hutchinson seems to be at the top of many draft boards. A big need for the Bills is still a 10+ sack/year pass rusher. Would a package consisting of the Bills' 1st and 2nd round draft picks in '22 plus Greg Rousseau land them the #1 pick? Would you do it if you were the Bills? What if you were the Jaguars? My thought here is that the Bills have 3 young DEs that could all be decent players but maybe not elite. Rousseau probably has the most potential. Hutchinson seems more of a sure thing. If you're the Jags, you get a player and 2 good picks. Plug in Hutchinson, maybe Epenesa and/or Basham work out, bring in a vet DE to be a rotational guy. If you're the Jags and this isn't enough, what more do you think they would ask for? If you're the Bills, what more would you be willing to give up? Maybe the Bills have to throw in a 2 or 3 in '23.

The FA WR group is large and diverse. You can find almost anything you want: WR1 (Godwin, Adams), size (M. Williams, Robinson), slot/possession (Crowder), intruiguing upside (Kirk), coming off injury (Chark, Gallup), etc. There is some bias on this board about McKenzie. If you sort by receiving yards he's somewhere around 54th. How likely is it that he gets an offer > $2-2.5 million (if that)? A couple at the low end that are interesting are James Washington, Alan Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Russell Gage too. I like Christian Kirk though he may be pricey. Diggs-Davis-Kirk would be good for a years. That would rival Chase-Higgins-Boyd at Cincy. The wild card are the injury guys like Gallup (also interesting).

There are more and more TEs that are matchup nightmares. The league had 3 TEs top 1,000 yards (Kelce, Andrews, Pitts), 10 had over 750 receiving yards and two others, Darren Waller and Noah Fant, missed multiple games and still had 665 and 670 yards, respectively. Outside of that group of 12 are Dawson Knox, TJ Hockenson and Hunter Henry, plus emerging players like CJ Uzomah, Cole Kmet and Pat Freiermuth. Then there's guys that seem to always be mentioned with potential like Jared Cook, Gerald Everett, David Njoku, Evan Engram and Tyler Higbee. It doesn't seem like any defenses have come up with good ways to defend these guys. So what is the prototype for defending the modern day TE? The player that comes to mind from the Bills past is Cornelius Bennett. He had the size and speed that could cover. Of course, he was one of the Bills' top pass rushers. Teams have flirted with the "big nickel" concept but they don't seem to go far enough, guys like Siran Neal really aren't that much bigger. It would seem like you need the hybrid LB/S, maybe a guy around 6'2" and 215-230 with good coverage skills. Teams like the Bills have evolved defensively to go with 5 DBs and 2 LBs now, with the nickel matching up with the slot receiver. Many of these teams have better TEs than slot receivers so I wonder if they're better off having a guy who can effectively cover the TE. I don't know what kind of talent pool exists with the physical tools but I would think it's worth trying to find defensive players that could fit this type of role. You'd think they would be decent vs. the run too with their size. Maybe the Bills could be trend setters.

Well, thanks to Cincy we have the answer to the squib kick riddle - it takes 4 seconds off clock and they started on the 19. Of course KC just wings it down the field to Hill for a 35 yard gain.

So the playbook is the property of the team. Think about in the old days on cutdown day, the player getting released would get the call, "Coach wants to see you, bring your playbook." The OC and DCs have impact on what's in the playbook but it's the property of the team. Regardless of who ends up being the next OC, they can take the existing playbook and modify it. I can see where the next OC comes in, reviews game film and sits down with key offensive personnel and figures out what plays and concepts worked best and the players liked, and then have the playbook evolve from there. Some will depend on personnel. For continuity it would be best to keep Dorsey. But similar to the draft, they need to get the best coach available. It is one of the most attractive OC jobs in the league so they should have plenty of great candidates.

I'm thinking this was the extent of the interview: Schoen: "Hi Brian, are you interested in being the head coach of the NY Giants?" Daboll: "Congrats Joe on the GM gig. That sounds really good, sure I'm interested." Schoen: "What do you think of Daniel Jones?" Daboll: "I need to watch more tape before I would be able to make a call on him. But we would have the offseason to figure that out." Schoen: "When can you start?" Daboll: "Well, I'm hoping not until after the Super Bowl." Schoen: "Okay. We have to go through the interview process, including Rooney rule candidates, but I will be back to you soon. You're our top candidate and would love to see if we could replicate what Sean and Brandon have done in Buffalo. I will see you in KC, go BIlls."

Congrats to him, and while losing good people is not desirable, the most important guy in the front office is Brandon Beane, and when you establish a track record of people that work for you go onto bigger jobs it becomes a very effective recruiting tool - come here, help us be successful, learn how we do things and promotional opportunities will come your way.

Excellent using whole roster to prepare for the Chiefs. For next year, letting Beasley go saves $6 million on the cap. Cordarrelle Patterson made $3 million this year for Atlanta. Sanders was about $4.6 million on cap this year. Allen will attract WRs to Buffalo. If Beasley and Sanders do not return, Davis is #2, sign both McKenzie and Patterson who probably cost no more than $7 million combined and you have 2 WR slots filled and Patterson can return kicks. Stevenson returns punts.

The entire secondary has played very well and flies a little under the radar. The DB coach, John Butler, deserves a lot of credit. There has been a lot of speculation about him being promoted to DC if Frazier gets a HC job. If Frazier stays I wonder if Butler gets poached for a DC job. So I give Butler a lot of kudos too. Presuming that Tre White is ready to go and they re-sign Wallace, Dane Jackson is an excellent 4th CB (White, Wallace, Taron Johnson) with some upside given this is only his 2nd season. That said, I would not be surprised if they draft a CB in rounds 2-4. Given that Wallace was an UDFA, Johnson was a 4th rounder and Jackson 7th round, they have a good track record of finding good players at that position in the middle rounds. And of course Siran Neal's terrific on ST (5th round).

The list of free agent QBs is pretty dismal: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/quarterback/ I don't think there is a starter-worthy QB on the list. I don't envision the Bills spending more than $3 million on a backup QB. That probably rules out Nick Foles. Trubisky and maybe Mariota are possibilities. Not sure there is going to be much of a market for Trubisky. There wasn't last year and it's not like there's a body of work that will change GMs' minds. Case Keenum would be interesting but he's under contract 1 more year and he's getting $5.5 million salary plus $1 million roster bonus.

I like this idea for the Bills. Not only does Patterson give position flexibility (RB, WR) but he becomes the kick returner, though he doesn't return punts. Outside of the 1 year with Patriots, he's never played on a contending team so that may be attractive to him. If the Bills let Beasley and Sanders go, Diggs-Davis-McKenzie-Patterson-Stevenson-'22 draft pick (2nd or 3rd round) would potentially be a nice group, apologies to the Jake Kumerow fan club.

Some highlights: 117 attempts for 700 yards, 6.0/carry is impressive enough, but take away the 10 kneel downs for -10 yards and it's 107/710/6.6 Runs for first downs: Allen has 51, Singletary has 40. On the receiving side only Diggs' 60 is higher, #2 receiving is Beasley with 33 Plays of 20 yards or more: Allen has 8 of the 16 runs for 20 or more, only Singletary has more than 1 (he has 5), receiving wise Digg and Davis have 12, Sanders 10, they are the only ones higher TDs running or receiving only Diggs and Knox are higher at 9, Allen, Davis and Singletary tied with 6 700 rushing yards is 16th all time for QBs, though this year he is behind both Hurts and Jackson While many worry about the injury risk, it sure seems the Bills give themselves a way better chance of going deep into the playoffs if Allen runs a lot. Listening to some national broadcasts it seems that the main concern is that the Bills have figured out the more they put the ball in his hands either passing or running the more dangerous the Bills are.

I get the allure of being a head coach, but here are the options: Option 1 (if offered): Take a HC job. Jacksonville and Vegas are open, the next two most likely are Chicago and Giants. None of the 4 are very stable. Option 2: Stay as DC for the Bills If I'm Frazier, I'm 63 years old, I can stay with the Bills and probably make it my last stop before retiring. He's not going to get fired and the Bills are set up to be perennial contenders for the foreseeable future, probably the rest of his coaching career. Alternatively, I can take a HC job with one of those 4, all of which have their issues and no recent history of coaching stability. None have GMs with a good track record so as HC what am I going to have to work with? Jags have Lawrence and Bears have Fields, so if you believe either or both are a franchise QB, maybe you take the job. Now if he gets at least a 5 year contract at really good money ($4-5/year) maybe that financial security makes it more attractive. If I'm Frazier, I think long and hard how I want to spend my final years. It would be very enticing to stay put and see "the process" through in Buffalo.

There are position coaches both on offense and defense that would be in line to move up to OC or DC, which I expect to happen if Frazier or Daboll leave for HC jobs. Couple that with the facts that Allen is still the QB and it's largely McDermott's defensive concepts and the offensive and defensive playbooks remain virtually the same, with the usual offseason tweaks. Also if Dorsey is offered an OC job he probably waits to see if Daboll stays or goes. If Daboll gets a HC position and they offer Dorsey the OC job I'm guessing he's taking it so he can stay with Allen. Proving that he can step in and the offense doesn't miss a beat is his best path to a HC job vs. being the OC for a bottom third NFL team.

I was surprised when I looked up Hester's return numbers. Excellent for sure, punt returns were better than kickoff returns, but not so far better compared to the other leaders: https://www.footballdb.com/leaders/career-puntreturns-yards https://www.footballdb.com/leaders/career-kickreturns-yards Cordarrelle Patterson is a better kickoff returner in an era when it's tougher to return kickoffs. His punt return average is similar to a lot of others, the 14 punt return TDs does stand out. Hester definitely passes the eye test but the stats don't really stack up. I am on the fence on Tasker, I think it's a close call. He had 7 blocked punts, but no special teams TDs.

I liked it because it made Mac Jones' stat line look worse 14-32 with 2 ints. vs. 14-32 with 1. And I agree on all the other points made, game was won, tough to bat down a gimme int. in the moment, etc.

Gabriel Davis is the team's true #2 now and I dare say he will prove to be the best #2 they've had since Peerless Price (the first time, with Moulds). Dawson Knox becomes more important and the slot receiver, presumably McKenzie, is now the 4th option. I could see Knox getting 8-10 targets. Between the injuries, the mantra "the best ability is availability", and being only a $1.5 million cap hit if cut, I think odds are that 2021 is Beasley's last season as a Bill.

I am surprised that there aren't more kicking specialists who learn to do both. I am thinking that if you can both punt and kick proficiently, you are almost guaranteed a 15+ year career as long as your skills hold up. Coaches love position flexibility, what if they only had to carry 1 kicking specialist? I kind of remember Brian Moorman being pressed into action to kick at one point and he was pretty good. There have been punters over the years who doubled as kickoff specialists, so if they can do that it would just be a matter of working on the precision of FGs and PATs.

I am thinking there are a lot of similarities (and some differences) between the 1988-89 Bills and the 2020-21 Bills. The similarities: Both the '88 and '20 Bills had big breakthrough seasons that most did not see coming. Both '88 and '20 teams were 2 seeds that lost in the AFC Championship game (on the road) to the Super Bowl losers (Cincy and KC) Kelly and Allen were both in their 3rd year with the team and essentially "arrived" as players/franchise players in '88 and '20, respectively There seemed to be an acknowledgement in both eras that the BIlls had done a good job acquiring talent Both made big trades to get a major piece that seemed to put them over the top: Cornelius Bennett in '87 and Diggs in '20 Both defenses started out better than the offenses, it took until the '90 team and the no-huddle (more on that) for the offense to move ahead of the defense. The emergence of Allen in '20 moved the offense ahead of the defense (though maybe a little setback this year) The '89 and '21 teams had expectations through the roof, both hit some potholes along the way Both eras as they emerged from '89 and probably '21 still had young cores of good players at key positions Both were lauded for good coaching and good GM work, both coach/GM combos seemed to be in sync with each other The differences The '21 Bills are not the bickering Bills of '89. The "Bickering Bills" tag did seem to bring that team together though. the '88-89 Bills had more stars (Kelly, Thomas, Reed, Bruce, and then a lot of really good players like Bennett, Conlan, Wolford, Ballard Ritcher) The final chapter of the '21 team obviously has not been written This may be a step back year for the team (not for Allen in my opinion), maybe they emerge and don't go to 4 straight Super Bowls, but it seems to me that the path or trajectory of both seem pretty similar. One of the main things that happened in '88-89 was the Cleveland playoff game where the no-huddle becomes the offensive system (and Ronnie Harmon is jettisoned). Maybe the current crew has something similar happen in the last segment of the season and playoffs. We're all hoping the team rallies (circles the wagons?) and gets hot for the playoffs but maybe this ends up being part of the process.

So all the personnel decisions have to do with backups except the punter, who at 25 punts in 9 games plays less than 3 plays a game (plus his holding duties which by all accounts he's really good at): 1. Moss/Breida - RB2 vs. RB3 2. Klein is a backup, Edmunds is a better player but they are very different 3. We all like Davis a lot but on this team he is WR4 and it's hard to take snaps away from top 3. 4. Obada - One nice play yesterday tipping a pass but he is DE5 behind Hughes, Rousseau, Addison and Epenesa, and maybe behind Basham. Who gets fewer snaps? If they have 8 DL active on game days, the first 4 are in and when healthy it's Oliver, Star and Phillips. It was Zimmer, so now maybe Obada is active more, will come down to him or Butler. It's one thing to criticize the construction of the roster if the team is left with some holes amongst the starters. 2 of the 5 (Breida and Obada) are clearly bottom 10 (44-53) roster guys. They are at best just as good as the players ahead of them on the depth chart. How about giving credit for such a deep team instead of saying these are poor roster decisions. Put another way, if Breida and/or Obada are active for the Tenn. or Jax game, or Davis gets more snaps do they win either of those games? If no Edmunds and just Klein, are they better than 6-3? I think not.

Tyler Bass is the Bills' Justin Tucker. I really think Tucker and Bass are the best two in the league.

Agreed but it makes him very difficult to trade.