jwhit34

13 seconds on half and touchback deja vu

I think this is a transition year for the special teams only guys. My guess is that 2022 will be Jones' and Matakevich's last year. I think Kumerow will not make it. Siran Neal is mostly special teams but he can play on defense if needed. Andre Smith will start on suspended list and if they don't have injuries and/or the young LBs show they can play special teams they will let him go. That gives them 2 "teams only" guys with Neal a combo. Back in the Super Bowl years they had Tasker and Mark Pike as special teams only but Tasker could play WR. I think that's okay, it will be interesting to see what young guys step up and become the next standouts on STs.

Recent: Kyle Williams 5th round Old timers: Tom Sestak (wall of fame) 17th round - 1962 Mike Stratton (wall of fame) 13th round - 1962 Daryl Lamonica 24th round -1963 Bob Chandler - 7th round - 1971 Andre Reed gets my vote though.

At first I resisted clicking on Jerry Sullivan's latest article, "Josh Allen offers hope that makes Bills fans unburdened by past scars." But I did, and am glad I did. I have been reading his work for decades and like many here at TBD have and so many times just shake my head after reading his columns. He's a good writer but there's something missing in his work. Today I think I found it: He doesn't get it. For as long as he has lived and worked in the area, he really doesn't understand the community. Case in point: the following excerpt from the column: That’s it. Once you have the franchise quarterback, all things are possible. Allen has allowed Bills fans to rise above the old fatalism. Sure, the loss to the Chiefs added another chapter to the chronicle of woe. But if anything, it made people more certain Allen would eventually win the big one, and maybe more than one. It beats the alternative — trying to convince themselves that a dysfunctional organization with a parade of flawed quarterbacks might actually shock the world and make a title run, when it became yet another heroic run to 7-9 or 6-10. Anyone who grew up during that 17-year drought must feel envious of those kids in the Allen jerseys today. They probably want to grab them by the collar and say, ‘You have no idea how good you have it! I suffered through Losman and Manuel and Edwards and Taylor and the bad Bledsoe, and Fitz at his worst.’ The bolded sentence is what he doesn't understand about us and Buffalo. Us older Bills fans are not "envious of those kids in the Allen jerseys today". We love seeing "those kids in the Allen jerseys today". Buffalonians stay in Buffalo because they love the area, love the people, and despite the challenges the area has had economically, weather, etc., part of that is our bond and our perpetual optimism makes that bond even stronger. Parents stay in the area and raise their kids in Buffalo because they think it's a great place to be and think their kids will have it even better than they did, and they want that for their kids. And that goes for the Bills and their fans. I am so excited for the next generation to experience hopefully a great run by this current iteration of the Bills, and how cool it will be for all those kids with Allen jerseys. Zero envy. I spent the first half of my life in Buffalo and then moved to Rochester when I got married, and I love Rochester but Buffalo was, is and always will be special to me. It will always be a part of me, helped make me who I am today. The biggest thing I miss are the people. Almost 35 years later I still have my season tickets and love going to the games. I can't wait to one day celebrate a Super Bowl win with our kids, one who is a Bills fanatic. After all these years, it is too bad that Sullivan has not captured maybe the key component of what makes this community and Bills fans tick, and I find that as the missing piece in his writing.

The early reports are promising but I would like to see them in real games first. Best draft yet? All the other ones are pretty good, and I think this list points out how consistently good they have been at drafting: 2021: Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham, Spencer Brown, Tommy Doyle, Damar Hamlin 2020: AJ Epenesa, Zack Moss, Gabe Davis, Tyler Bass, Dane Jackson 2019: Ed Oliver, Devin Singletary, Dawson Knox, even the hangers-on Jaquan Johnson, Tommy Sweeney, Cody Ford 2018: Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds, Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson, Siran Neal (and Teller traded) The one year without Beane: 2017: Tre White, Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano (Zay Jones still in league) Their hit rate seems to be 5 long term roster players per year.

Allen averaged 38 pass attempts/game last year, over 2 years the average is 37. Let's go with 38. How would those be divided up this year? Possible scenario: Diggs 10 Davis 8 Slot WR 7 Knox/TE 6 Cook/RB 6 Other WR 1 The slot WR could include WR4 in 4 wide sets. In this scenario the WRs get about 26 targets and TE and RBs get 12, roughly a 68/32% split. There will be plenty of passes to go around and you want the best receivers and we all know how McDermott loves the position flexibility guys. I think that holds true for WR too. While people are type casting Crowder, McKenzie, Shakir and Austin as slot guys, I think back to Gabe Davis' rookie year and how they talked about how he knew all the WR positions. With most of the WRs being in at least their 3rd year with the team, they know the offense and I think they move them around. Austin's a vet so he can pick that up and people are raving about Shakir, he can be brought along like they did Davis, if he picks things up faster all the better. I think they keep the best 6 WRs and that will be Diggs, Davis, McKenzie, Crowder, Shakir and Austin. If the elect to keep 7 they make the call on whether Stevenson or Kumerow have a role or not.

The league is becoming more and more dependent on speed, not ground and pound. Outside of the DL, having players that can deal with speed will be very important. The investment of having a big, potentially controlling group of interior defensive linemen would enable the Bills to have more athletic, speed guys as their two LBs plus the nickel CB. With Settle, D. Jones and Phillips they have the size inside then add the more unique skill set of Oliver and that may be the formula. But let's see if the rookie can play first. If he can, then it becomes an interesting discussion.

The teams and GMs that are the best at managing the cap use first round picks on QB, CB, OT, edge rushers and WR. If they hit on those picks, they have good value for at least 4 years with those players. Add to that hitting on mid to late rounders and using free agency to add relatively cheap depth and you have the formula to pay really good players at other positions more on 2nd and 3rd contracts. That formula has worked for Beane so far, but is going to be put to the test now with more good players at the other positions (like Knox, Poyer, Edmunds, Hyde, Singletary). He won't be able to re-sign them all but will be able to get a good percentage of them signed.

Car crash for Roger Saffold? Anyone see Ross Cellino talking to him at practice? Day 1 having guys like McKenzie with the 1s or Quessenberry in starting OL spot because Spencer Brown was out with injury is something I like and is consistent with McDermott/Beane philosophy. That said, I expect Brown and Crowder to be the starters. Thanks to all for the training camp info. Super exciting...

Dawkins nailed it. Only thing I have to add is what he wrote about is the essence of why when the Bills win the Super Bowl (with this group of players) it will be so special for the team and the Buffalo community.

A good example of there's good people working for bad organizations is Jim Overdorf. Under the Wilson ownership and Russ Brandon leadership, Overdorf was more or less lumped in with them and viewed as inept. He has been a key person for Brandon Beane as they have transformed the organization. I know nothing about Matt Bazirgan but wouldn't presume he is no good because he worked for the Texans.

Amazing that Papa Johns, Dominos and Pizza Hut have big time endorsements deals with NFL and other pro leagues and their pizza is all terrible. Give me Bocces or La Nova any day and twice on Sunday. Little Caesars is God awful too.

We had 6 seats starting in '86, 3 guys controlled 2 seats each. I was not in the original group but went to most games. Then one guy dropped out in '89 and I took over his 2 seats. Second guy dropped out in late 90s, and it was then original guy and me that controlled the 6 seats. Around '02 original guy dropped out and I had control of all 6 seats. It was tough filling in those days. Dropped down to 4 seats around 2009. Our daughter loves the Bills, she went to a lot of games, but she's at college now. It was a struggle filling seats from about 2010-2017, a lot easier now. Glad I kept the seats, we're around 35 yard line, 9 rows behind Bills bench. At some point I may drop down to 2 but hopefully during the Allen era it will not be too tough to find people to go to the games. The time to drop down to 2 may be when the new stadium opens so I'm not paying PSLs on 4 seats. But we'll see. I went to my first game with my dad in 1970 (lost to Rams 19-0) and we had season tickets in 1973-74 so I've been going a long time. I'm going to keep going as long as possible.

Araiza and Tyler Bass are arguably the strongest leg combo in the league. Way to use 6th round picks on players that will contribute. Just send Matt to holder school now.

I don't think vertical leap makes up for arm length. Sure, you can jump higher, but think about most coverage situations. If the QB is delivering the ball on time and on target the receiver isn't jumping up to catch it. And if you're a shorter CB with short arms, the WR is going to ostensibly be in stride whereas the short CB with short arms has to jump up to make a play. I think some of the measurables and reliance on combine data can be overblown (the player still has to be able to play). However, they are data points that if put in proper context can be instructive for GMs and coaches when trying to determine whether a player can successfully make the transition from college to pro. You can look at almost any position and if a player is undersized they probably need to possess some other outstanding trait to make up for the deficiency. Tyreek Hill is probably the poster child for that - his small stature is offset by blazing speed.

Ascending - Gabriel Davis and Dane Jackson: I hesitate to put Davis here because of the game vs. KC in the playoffs, but he was still WR4 last year and I think he has a 1,000 yard, 8+ TD season. As for Jackson, he filled in pretty well, the Bills seem to like him, has some better physical attributes than Levi Wallace, and although they will probably pick a CB in the first 2-3 rounds of the draft, I think he will win the CB2 job. It is noted often here and elsewhere that year 3 is often the season that a player makes a quantum leap, so I'll guess it's Jackson. Descending - Devin Singletary: They aggressively went after McKissic and were very disappointed when they didn't get him, then signed Duke Johnson. I think the Bills will pick a RB on day 2 of the draft, I actually think it's going to be round 2 and either Hall, Spiller or Walker. Singletary's touches go down. Shocking - Tim Settle: They went after him hard too, and it seemed that many in DC really liked him as a player. Ends up having a better year than Harrison Phillips in Minnesota. Packing: Zack Moss - odd man out in the RB room, maybe they trade him, I could see them using him as part of a package to trade up in the draft somewhere in rounds 2-4.

I'm picking 2 that are on the draft prospect visit list: Chad Muma (LB, Wyoming) Cade Otton (TE, Washington)

Tomlin is overrated. He has not kept pace with the way the game is played today. Punting in + territory, not going for it on 4th down, I think he's okay but not top 5-6 anymore. McDermott at around 4-5 is about right by me.

I could see the Bills trading Epenesa and their first to move up. They might have to have some other picks in it but that could be the core of it. There has been speculation that they are looking to trade a pick and a veteran. I don't see a starter level vet but positions where there is depth like DE I could see trading Epenesa or Basham.

Setting aside the cap implications for a minute, why do I get the feeling many here would rather see Christian Wade or Duke Williams on the 53 rather than Gilmore? I think most still want to see a vet CB in here and I think it will happen. Gilmore may be a long shot but it would be okay with me. Raise your hand if you thought the Bills would land Von Miller.

Totally agree with this when you look at what they have committed to so far in free agency. And this makes sense, if you hit on players in the first two rounds at positions like CB and WR, you are getting great value in their first 4 years. That's a good element of cap management once the QB is off their rookie deal.

Just did since the common draft, AFL/NFL merger.

I thought it would be interesting to put together the all-time Bills teams based on the round the Bills drafted the player. Note: the player had to be drafted by the Bills, so for instance Cornelius Bennett is not on the 1st round team. I put together 3 teams: 1st round, rounds 2 & 3 and rounds 4 or later. Picks are since the AFL/NFL merger. Tell me who I missed: Round 1 QB: Kelly gets the nod because he's in HOF, with Allen closing fast RB: OJ Simpson and Marshawn Lynch WR: Surprisingly not a lot of great choices, Eric Moulds, Lee Evans and Jerry Butler TE: Paul Seymour OT: Also slim pickings: Will Wolford, John Fina OG: Joe D. and Jim Ritcher, honorable mention Ruben Brown Center: Eric Wood DE: Bruce Smith, and then pick from Rousseau, Shaq Lawson, Eric Flowers, Walt Patulski and Al Cowlings. I can't believe I'm saying Rousseau is the 2nd best DE the Bills have ever taken in the 1st round after 1 season. DT: Ed Oliver, Marcel Dareus LB: 4 choices: Shane Conlan for sure, then Edmunds, Tom Ruud or Tom Cousineau. I am taking Edmunds and playing nickel corner because... CB: ...is the most stacked position in round 1. I'm thinking Gilmore, T. White and Winfield, but also have Nate Clements. And next tier down is pretty good too: Derrick Burroughs, T. Smith, J. Burris, JD Williams and Mario Clark S: Henry Jones and Donte Whitner unless you go with John Pitts Rounds 2&3 QB: Joe Ferguson, honorable mention Frank Reich (appropriate he would be the backup on this team) RB: Thurman Thomas, Joe Cribbs, with Travis Henry just missing out FB: Had to put Jim Braxton in here WR: Peerless Price, Robert Woods, but then ? Josh Reed or Chris Burkett TE: Dawson Knox OT: Dion Dawkins, Ken Jones, Joe Devlin (could slide him to G since he played there a bit) OG: Reggie McKenzie, Andy Levitre Center: Bruce Jarvis, though Glen Parker could play there DE: Good options, McDermott would like to rotate these guys: Schobel and Hansen, but Ben Williams and Marcellus Wiley are good ones too. DT: Fred Smerlas, John Parrella LB: Better than the 1st rounders: Darryl Talley, Jim Haslett, Sam Cowart CB: Odomes and Ron Darby S: A. Williams, J. Byrd Rounds 4 and later: This was pretty interesting: QB: James Harris (8th round) RB: Not much to choose from - Sammy Morris, Roland Hooks WR: Andre Reed, Stevie Johnson, Bob Chandler and Gabriel Davis (would you take over Moulds, Evans and Butler?) TE: Jay Riemersma, K. McKellar OT: Howard Ballard and Donnie Green OG: Wyatt Teller and Corbin Lacina Center: Will Grant DE: Leon Seals, Jeff Yeates DT: Kyle Williams, Mike Lodish LB: Amazingly stacked: Matt Milano, Mark Maddox, Luscious Sanford (one of my favorites), Carlton Bailey, Marvcus Patton, Eugene Marve, Angelo Crowell, John Holecek CB: Charles Romes, T. McGee, Taron Johnson S: Kurt Schulz, MArtin Mayhew K: Gary Anderson, Tyler Bass P: John Kidd LS: Dale Hellestrae Special Teams: Mark Pike

While one can make the argument that as the punter he is a day one starter, the Bills have punted 93 times in 33 regular season games over the past two seasons, an average of 2.8 punts per game. Presuming that the Bills continue to be a good offense for the next 4 years (the length contract for a 3rd or 4th rounder) that is not going to change much. So outside of holding, spending a 3rd or 4th rounder on a punter gets him on the field for a little less than 3 plays a game. If they draft a player in the 3rd or 4th round you get a special teams contributor, a rotational player, or an eventual starter. In any scenario they are on the field for double digit plays per game, or like in the case of Dawson Knox, Devin SIngletary, Taron Johnson and Spencer Brown, full time starters. With their depth punter at 6 like they did with Tyler Bass is great. Any earlier than that? Probably not. Even 5th round Tommy Doyle played more snaps than the punter.

I think the timed OT is the way to go. This is what I would do, only for playoffs: 10 minute OT Instead of doing the coin flip again you have whoever received the opening kickoff receive again. This probably changes the receive or defer decision at beginning of game. If teams are still tied at the end of first OT, continue play into a 2nd 10 minute OT period. Kickoff again but team that kicked off in 1st OT receives in 2nd OT. No extra points, teams have to go for 2, this may reduce the chance of a tie after an overtime period. The Bills-KC game was tied at 36, would the final score been in the 50s? How fun would that have been.