jwhit34

I'm picking 2 that are on the draft prospect visit list: Chad Muma (LB, Wyoming) Cade Otton (TE, Washington)

Tomlin is overrated. He has not kept pace with the way the game is played today. Punting in + territory, not going for it on 4th down, I think he's okay but not top 5-6 anymore. McDermott at around 4-5 is about right by me.

I could see the Bills trading Epenesa and their first to move up. They might have to have some other picks in it but that could be the core of it. There has been speculation that they are looking to trade a pick and a veteran. I don't see a starter level vet but positions where there is depth like DE I could see trading Epenesa or Basham.

Setting aside the cap implications for a minute, why do I get the feeling many here would rather see Christian Wade or Duke Williams on the 53 rather than Gilmore? I think most still want to see a vet CB in here and I think it will happen. Gilmore may be a long shot but it would be okay with me. Raise your hand if you thought the Bills would land Von Miller.

Totally agree with this when you look at what they have committed to so far in free agency. And this makes sense, if you hit on players in the first two rounds at positions like CB and WR, you are getting great value in their first 4 years. That's a good element of cap management once the QB is off their rookie deal.

Just did since the common draft, AFL/NFL merger.

I thought it would be interesting to put together the all-time Bills teams based on the round the Bills drafted the player. Note: the player had to be drafted by the Bills, so for instance Cornelius Bennett is not on the 1st round team. I put together 3 teams: 1st round, rounds 2 & 3 and rounds 4 or later. Picks are since the AFL/NFL merger. Tell me who I missed: Round 1 QB: Kelly gets the nod because he's in HOF, with Allen closing fast RB: OJ Simpson and Marshawn Lynch WR: Surprisingly not a lot of great choices, Eric Moulds, Lee Evans and Jerry Butler TE: Paul Seymour OT: Also slim pickings: Will Wolford, John Fina OG: Joe D. and Jim Ritcher, honorable mention Ruben Brown Center: Eric Wood DE: Bruce Smith, and then pick from Rousseau, Shaq Lawson, Eric Flowers, Walt Patulski and Al Cowlings. I can't believe I'm saying Rousseau is the 2nd best DE the Bills have ever taken in the 1st round after 1 season. DT: Ed Oliver, Marcel Dareus LB: 4 choices: Shane Conlan for sure, then Edmunds, Tom Ruud or Tom Cousineau. I am taking Edmunds and playing nickel corner because... CB: ...is the most stacked position in round 1. I'm thinking Gilmore, T. White and Winfield, but also have Nate Clements. And next tier down is pretty good too: Derrick Burroughs, T. Smith, J. Burris, JD Williams and Mario Clark S: Henry Jones and Donte Whitner unless you go with John Pitts Rounds 2&3 QB: Joe Ferguson, honorable mention Frank Reich (appropriate he would be the backup on this team) RB: Thurman Thomas, Joe Cribbs, with Travis Henry just missing out FB: Had to put Jim Braxton in here WR: Peerless Price, Robert Woods, but then ? Josh Reed or Chris Burkett TE: Dawson Knox OT: Dion Dawkins, Ken Jones, Joe Devlin (could slide him to G since he played there a bit) OG: Reggie McKenzie, Andy Levitre Center: Bruce Jarvis, though Glen Parker could play there DE: Good options, McDermott would like to rotate these guys: Schobel and Hansen, but Ben Williams and Marcellus Wiley are good ones too. DT: Fred Smerlas, John Parrella LB: Better than the 1st rounders: Darryl Talley, Jim Haslett, Sam Cowart CB: Odomes and Ron Darby S: A. Williams, J. Byrd Rounds 4 and later: This was pretty interesting: QB: James Harris (8th round) RB: Not much to choose from - Sammy Morris, Roland Hooks WR: Andre Reed, Stevie Johnson, Bob Chandler and Gabriel Davis (would you take over Moulds, Evans and Butler?) TE: Jay Riemersma, K. McKellar OT: Howard Ballard and Donnie Green OG: Wyatt Teller and Corbin Lacina Center: Will Grant DE: Leon Seals, Jeff Yeates DT: Kyle Williams, Mike Lodish LB: Amazingly stacked: Matt Milano, Mark Maddox, Luscious Sanford (one of my favorites), Carlton Bailey, Marvcus Patton, Eugene Marve, Angelo Crowell, John Holecek CB: Charles Romes, T. McGee, Taron Johnson S: Kurt Schulz, MArtin Mayhew K: Gary Anderson, Tyler Bass P: John Kidd LS: Dale Hellestrae Special Teams: Mark Pike

While one can make the argument that as the punter he is a day one starter, the Bills have punted 93 times in 33 regular season games over the past two seasons, an average of 2.8 punts per game. Presuming that the Bills continue to be a good offense for the next 4 years (the length contract for a 3rd or 4th rounder) that is not going to change much. So outside of holding, spending a 3rd or 4th rounder on a punter gets him on the field for a little less than 3 plays a game. If they draft a player in the 3rd or 4th round you get a special teams contributor, a rotational player, or an eventual starter. In any scenario they are on the field for double digit plays per game, or like in the case of Dawson Knox, Devin SIngletary, Taron Johnson and Spencer Brown, full time starters. With their depth punter at 6 like they did with Tyler Bass is great. Any earlier than that? Probably not. Even 5th round Tommy Doyle played more snaps than the punter.

I think the timed OT is the way to go. This is what I would do, only for playoffs: 10 minute OT Instead of doing the coin flip again you have whoever received the opening kickoff receive again. This probably changes the receive or defer decision at beginning of game. If teams are still tied at the end of first OT, continue play into a 2nd 10 minute OT period. Kickoff again but team that kicked off in 1st OT receives in 2nd OT. No extra points, teams have to go for 2, this may reduce the chance of a tie after an overtime period. The Bills-KC game was tied at 36, would the final score been in the 50s? How fun would that have been.

2 years, $10 million contract total is $5 million a year. On the bulk of that one would pay NY and federal marginal income tax rates of 10% and 37%, respectively, add in the surtaxes and payroll taxes and you're easily at about 52%, maybe deductions take it down to 50% so for easy math you net 50% or $2.5 million per year or $5 million over 2 years. Even with a high cost lifestyle while playing maybe you're spending $400k/year so $10 million - $5 million taxes - $800k spend leaves a net $4.2 million. A relatively conservative investment strategy should be able to net you at least a 5% return which would be $210k/year. So that is not generational wealth but a nice amount to produce annual income to live on without touching principal. What would be considered generational wealth? Enough that you can pass on to the next generation and maybe next two generations where they would not have to work (not that you would want them to work, but they wouldn't have to). You also have to consider while you could probably live comfortably on $100k or so, I think the implication of "generational wealth" is that you are living a much more luxurious lifestyle without working. You're probably looking at a lifestyle that costs at least $500k per year. If you have 2 kids, you need assets that would generate $1 million of income per year. At a 5% return that would be $20 million. All in all a different realm than most of us live, hard to relate or fathom.

The defensive concepts/approach is McDermott's, not Frazier's, so if Frazier leaves the defense really will not change that much. When the head coach is a defensive coach it is important/critical that: He and the DC are in alignment on scheme/concepts/approach The assistant coaches are excellent teachers (this is true in general), they need to know how to teach the schemes/concepts The continuity on the Bills' staff over the past 3-4 years is extremely rare so this assistant churn is normal. They have a good track record of finding assistants and being on the BIlls' coaching staff right now is very attractive. They will find good assistants. Exhibit A for that is the OL coach.

If the Germany and Mexico games are any indication, I think the league is moving towards having each team play 8 home, 8 away and 1 neutral site game. That probably makes a lot of sense in the long run, maybe that 5th inter-conference game ends up being the neutral site game.

The #1 overall pick will not be a QB for only the 4th time since 2010 (Myles Garrett-'17, Jadaveon Clowney-'14 and Eric Fisher-'13). Aidan Hutchinson seems to be at the top of many draft boards. A big need for the Bills is still a 10+ sack/year pass rusher. Would a package consisting of the Bills' 1st and 2nd round draft picks in '22 plus Greg Rousseau land them the #1 pick? Would you do it if you were the Bills? What if you were the Jaguars? My thought here is that the Bills have 3 young DEs that could all be decent players but maybe not elite. Rousseau probably has the most potential. Hutchinson seems more of a sure thing. If you're the Jags, you get a player and 2 good picks. Plug in Hutchinson, maybe Epenesa and/or Basham work out, bring in a vet DE to be a rotational guy. If you're the Jags and this isn't enough, what more do you think they would ask for? If you're the Bills, what more would you be willing to give up? Maybe the Bills have to throw in a 2 or 3 in '23.

The FA WR group is large and diverse. You can find almost anything you want: WR1 (Godwin, Adams), size (M. Williams, Robinson), slot/possession (Crowder), intruiguing upside (Kirk), coming off injury (Chark, Gallup), etc. There is some bias on this board about McKenzie. If you sort by receiving yards he's somewhere around 54th. How likely is it that he gets an offer > $2-2.5 million (if that)? A couple at the low end that are interesting are James Washington, Alan Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Russell Gage too. I like Christian Kirk though he may be pricey. Diggs-Davis-Kirk would be good for a years. That would rival Chase-Higgins-Boyd at Cincy. The wild card are the injury guys like Gallup (also interesting).

There are more and more TEs that are matchup nightmares. The league had 3 TEs top 1,000 yards (Kelce, Andrews, Pitts), 10 had over 750 receiving yards and two others, Darren Waller and Noah Fant, missed multiple games and still had 665 and 670 yards, respectively. Outside of that group of 12 are Dawson Knox, TJ Hockenson and Hunter Henry, plus emerging players like CJ Uzomah, Cole Kmet and Pat Freiermuth. Then there's guys that seem to always be mentioned with potential like Jared Cook, Gerald Everett, David Njoku, Evan Engram and Tyler Higbee. It doesn't seem like any defenses have come up with good ways to defend these guys. So what is the prototype for defending the modern day TE? The player that comes to mind from the Bills past is Cornelius Bennett. He had the size and speed that could cover. Of course, he was one of the Bills' top pass rushers. Teams have flirted with the "big nickel" concept but they don't seem to go far enough, guys like Siran Neal really aren't that much bigger. It would seem like you need the hybrid LB/S, maybe a guy around 6'2" and 215-230 with good coverage skills. Teams like the Bills have evolved defensively to go with 5 DBs and 2 LBs now, with the nickel matching up with the slot receiver. Many of these teams have better TEs than slot receivers so I wonder if they're better off having a guy who can effectively cover the TE. I don't know what kind of talent pool exists with the physical tools but I would think it's worth trying to find defensive players that could fit this type of role. You'd think they would be decent vs. the run too with their size. Maybe the Bills could be trend setters.

Well, thanks to Cincy we have the answer to the squib kick riddle - it takes 4 seconds off clock and they started on the 19. Of course KC just wings it down the field to Hill for a 35 yard gain.

So the playbook is the property of the team. Think about in the old days on cutdown day, the player getting released would get the call, "Coach wants to see you, bring your playbook." The OC and DCs have impact on what's in the playbook but it's the property of the team. Regardless of who ends up being the next OC, they can take the existing playbook and modify it. I can see where the next OC comes in, reviews game film and sits down with key offensive personnel and figures out what plays and concepts worked best and the players liked, and then have the playbook evolve from there. Some will depend on personnel. For continuity it would be best to keep Dorsey. But similar to the draft, they need to get the best coach available. It is one of the most attractive OC jobs in the league so they should have plenty of great candidates.

I'm thinking this was the extent of the interview: Schoen: "Hi Brian, are you interested in being the head coach of the NY Giants?" Daboll: "Congrats Joe on the GM gig. That sounds really good, sure I'm interested." Schoen: "What do you think of Daniel Jones?" Daboll: "I need to watch more tape before I would be able to make a call on him. But we would have the offseason to figure that out." Schoen: "When can you start?" Daboll: "Well, I'm hoping not until after the Super Bowl." Schoen: "Okay. We have to go through the interview process, including Rooney rule candidates, but I will be back to you soon. You're our top candidate and would love to see if we could replicate what Sean and Brandon have done in Buffalo. I will see you in KC, go BIlls."

Congrats to him, and while losing good people is not desirable, the most important guy in the front office is Brandon Beane, and when you establish a track record of people that work for you go onto bigger jobs it becomes a very effective recruiting tool - come here, help us be successful, learn how we do things and promotional opportunities will come your way.

Excellent using whole roster to prepare for the Chiefs. For next year, letting Beasley go saves $6 million on the cap. Cordarrelle Patterson made $3 million this year for Atlanta. Sanders was about $4.6 million on cap this year. Allen will attract WRs to Buffalo. If Beasley and Sanders do not return, Davis is #2, sign both McKenzie and Patterson who probably cost no more than $7 million combined and you have 2 WR slots filled and Patterson can return kicks. Stevenson returns punts.

The entire secondary has played very well and flies a little under the radar. The DB coach, John Butler, deserves a lot of credit. There has been a lot of speculation about him being promoted to DC if Frazier gets a HC job. If Frazier stays I wonder if Butler gets poached for a DC job. So I give Butler a lot of kudos too. Presuming that Tre White is ready to go and they re-sign Wallace, Dane Jackson is an excellent 4th CB (White, Wallace, Taron Johnson) with some upside given this is only his 2nd season. That said, I would not be surprised if they draft a CB in rounds 2-4. Given that Wallace was an UDFA, Johnson was a 4th rounder and Jackson 7th round, they have a good track record of finding good players at that position in the middle rounds. And of course Siran Neal's terrific on ST (5th round).

The list of free agent QBs is pretty dismal: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/quarterback/ I don't think there is a starter-worthy QB on the list. I don't envision the Bills spending more than $3 million on a backup QB. That probably rules out Nick Foles. Trubisky and maybe Mariota are possibilities. Not sure there is going to be much of a market for Trubisky. There wasn't last year and it's not like there's a body of work that will change GMs' minds. Case Keenum would be interesting but he's under contract 1 more year and he's getting $5.5 million salary plus $1 million roster bonus.

I like this idea for the Bills. Not only does Patterson give position flexibility (RB, WR) but he becomes the kick returner, though he doesn't return punts. Outside of the 1 year with Patriots, he's never played on a contending team so that may be attractive to him. If the Bills let Beasley and Sanders go, Diggs-Davis-McKenzie-Patterson-Stevenson-'22 draft pick (2nd or 3rd round) would potentially be a nice group, apologies to the Jake Kumerow fan club.

Some highlights: 117 attempts for 700 yards, 6.0/carry is impressive enough, but take away the 10 kneel downs for -10 yards and it's 107/710/6.6 Runs for first downs: Allen has 51, Singletary has 40. On the receiving side only Diggs' 60 is higher, #2 receiving is Beasley with 33 Plays of 20 yards or more: Allen has 8 of the 16 runs for 20 or more, only Singletary has more than 1 (he has 5), receiving wise Digg and Davis have 12, Sanders 10, they are the only ones higher TDs running or receiving only Diggs and Knox are higher at 9, Allen, Davis and Singletary tied with 6 700 rushing yards is 16th all time for QBs, though this year he is behind both Hurts and Jackson While many worry about the injury risk, it sure seems the Bills give themselves a way better chance of going deep into the playoffs if Allen runs a lot. Listening to some national broadcasts it seems that the main concern is that the Bills have figured out the more they put the ball in his hands either passing or running the more dangerous the Bills are.

I get the allure of being a head coach, but here are the options: Option 1 (if offered): Take a HC job. Jacksonville and Vegas are open, the next two most likely are Chicago and Giants. None of the 4 are very stable. Option 2: Stay as DC for the Bills If I'm Frazier, I'm 63 years old, I can stay with the Bills and probably make it my last stop before retiring. He's not going to get fired and the Bills are set up to be perennial contenders for the foreseeable future, probably the rest of his coaching career. Alternatively, I can take a HC job with one of those 4, all of which have their issues and no recent history of coaching stability. None have GMs with a good track record so as HC what am I going to have to work with? Jags have Lawrence and Bears have Fields, so if you believe either or both are a franchise QB, maybe you take the job. Now if he gets at least a 5 year contract at really good money ($4-5/year) maybe that financial security makes it more attractive. If I'm Frazier, I think long and hard how I want to spend my final years. It would be very enticing to stay put and see "the process" through in Buffalo.