
jwhit34
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Everything posted by jwhit34
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I was going to respond to the "What's Up With Elam" topic, but have chosen to go positive instead and looked at the entire 2022 draft class. A lot of the experts say the appropriate time to evaluate a draft is in year 3. Well, it's year 3 for the 2022 draft class. As a reminder, here were the picks: Round 1 - Elam 2 - Cook 3 - Bernard 5 - Shakir 6 - Araiza 6 - Benford 6 - Tenuta 7 - Spector This is one heck of a draft: 3 Pro Bowl or better caliber players (Cook, Bernard, Benford - could he be All Pro?) Shakir, who may not be Pro Bowl but has emerged as a top third slot receiver and is leading the team in receptions and yards. 2 quality depth players (Elam, Spector) capable of stepping in to start when needed and quite possibly start for many teams. 1 who would still be on the team if not for the unfortunate personal stuff (Araiza). Tenuta, who wasn't good enough to make the Bills but is still kicking around the league on Practice Squads. All 8 picks still in the league, and 5 of the 8 in the 5th round or later. This draft was key to the Bills/Beane being able to move on from some vets (Edmunds, White, Singletary, Gabe Davis) whose play either declined or were too expensive. It also allowed them to transition to "Allen Era 2" without taking a step back. A transformative draft in my opinion. Fans can woulda, coulda, shoulda the Elam pick but he probably starts for 1/2 the teams in the league. He was pretty good vs. the Dolphins. Is any objective evaluator giving this draft anything but an A? By the way, in the 8 drafts since McDermott/Beane arrived in 2017 (giving McDermott the '17 year): All 24 players drafted in the first 4 rounds are still in the league, and at least 18 have started multiple games for the Bills Notable picks round 5 or later: Milano (5), Shakir (5), Bass (6), Dane Jackson (7), Teller (5), Hamlin (6), Benford (6) How many other teams have done better?
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Data on interim HC in past 6 years. Results are dependent on opponent vs. "interim coach bump" (myth?), overall 8-5 though: 2018 Cleveland Browns - 2-5-1 under Hue Jackson Lost opener under Gregg Williams (v Chiefs) 5-2 rest of the way under Williams 2018 Green Bay Packers - 4-7-1 under Mike McCarthy Won opener under Joe Philbin (v Falcons) 1-2 rest of the way under Philbin 2019 Washington Commanders - 0-5 under Jay Gruden Won opener under Bill Callahan (@ Dolphins) 2-8 rest of the way under Callahan 2019 Carolina Panthers - 5-7 under Ron Rivera Lost opener under Perry Fewell (@ Falcons) 0-3 rest of the way under Fewell 2020 Houston Texans - 0-4 under Bill O'Brien Won opener under Romeo Crennel (v Jaguars) 3-8 rest of the way under Crennel 2020 Atlanta Falcons - 0-5 under Dan Quinn Won opener under Raheem Morris (@ Vikings) 3-7 rest of the way under Morris 2020 Detroit Lions - 4-7 under Matt Patricia Won opener under Darrell Bevell (@ Bears) 0-3 rest of the way under Bevell, plus 0-1 under Robert Prince when Bevell had Covid 2021 Jacksonville Jaguars - 2-11 under Urban Meyer Lost opener under Darrell Bevell (v Texans) 1-2 rest of the way under Bevell 2021 Las Vegas Raiders - 3-2 under Jon Gruden (officially resigned, not fired) Won opener under Rich Bisaccia (@ Broncos) 6-5 rest of the way under Bisaccia, made playoffs, lost in WC @ Bengals 2022 Carolina Panthers - 1-4 under Matt Rhule Lost opener under Steve Wilks (@ Rams) 6-5 rest of the way under Wilks 2022 Indianapolis Colts - 3-5-1 under Frank Reich Won opener under Jeff Saturday (@ Raiders) 0-7 rest of the way under Saturday 2022 Denver Broncos - 4-11 under Nathaniel Hackett Lost opener under Jerry Rosburg (@ Chiefs) 1-0 rest of the way under Rosburg 2023 Las Vegas Raiders - 3-5 under Josh McDaniels Won opener under Antonio Pierce (v Giants) 1-2 rest of the way so far under Pierce A few findings from that: Only Gregg Williams, Rich Bisaccia, Steve Wilks and technically Jerry Rosburg had a win percentage above .500 after their first game Of the eight that won their opening game, only one opponent finished at .500 or better (2020 Bears finished 8-8) Rich Bisaccia is the only interim HC to both win his first game, and have a winning record over their remaining games None of the Interim HC in this period have been given a permanent seat yet
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While this a rationalization, if Benford was selected in the 1st round and Elam the 6th, everyone would be elated that the Bills hit on a really good CB and then added excellent depth in the 6th and would not want to trade Elam. Totally understand the opportunity cost of drafting Elam in the 1st - could have had Tyler Linderbaum, Jermaine Johnson, George Karlaftis (imagine if they would have picked another D lineman) or Christian Watson. However, the draft is a crapshoot even in the 1st round. Players picked before Elam: Evan Neal (7th), Jahan Dotson (16th), Kenny Pickett (21st). Also need to play the long game - Douglas may not be back in '25 and Elam becomes a starter. I'd say do not trade.
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I am surprised that many still react to the headline number This is the first big point: only $19.85 million guaranteed. Other important points (based on numbers at Spotrac): 1. Cap hit in '25 is $8.2 million. That includes the prorated portion of the $16 million option bonus which is $3.2 million. It is over 5 years because the contract includes void years so it is $3.2 million/year for 5 years. At that point all the guaranteed money has been paid out. 2. The dead cap money starting in 2026-28: $3.84, $2.56 and $1.28 million. Injuries or decline in play and they are out. 3. Between high salaries and roster bonus they can either move on or he becomes an extension candidate in '26-28. It looks like a smart contract to me. If he continues to improve, it will be worthwhile, if he plateaus, declines or is injured they can get out of it.
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I like the 2 captain thing. Leadership: 10 makes sense, probably have representation for each position group (QB, RB, WR/TE, OL, DL, LB, DB, Special Teams) plus 2 others.
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1. Bills record? Do they win the AFC East? 11-6 and yes 2. If they make the playoffs, how far do they go? AFC Champs 3. What players win awards or are All-Pro or Pro Bowl selections? All Pro: Allen; Pro Bowl: Dawkins, Kincaid, Bernard, Oliver, Allen Offense: 4. Josh's stats - completions, passing yards, passing TDs, INTs, Rushing yards and Rushing TDs 400 completions, 4,100 yds, 33 TD, 13 INT, 625 rushing, 10 TDs 5. Team Leader rushing and how many yards? Cook 925 6. Team leading receiver and how many yards? Kincaid 900 7. Team leader in TDs (not named Allen) and how many? 8. Offense MVP not named Allen Kincaid 9. Biggest surprise on offense Keon Coleman 10. Biggest disappointment on offense David Edwards 11. Offense ROY Keon Coleman 12. Most improved player on offense O'Cyrus Torrence 13. Total points scored for the season 463 Defense: 14. Team leading tackler and with how many (solo and total - for example Bernard had 84 solo and 143 total last season) Bernard 90 solo, 145 total 15. Team sack leader with how many Rousseau 9 16. Team takeaway leader (fumbles and Ints) Rasul Douglas 6 17. Defense MVP Rousseau 18. Defense ROY Cole Bishop 19. Defense biggest surprise Bishop 20. Defense Most Improved Dorian Williams 21. Defense biggest disappointment Taylor Rapp 22. Will Milano return this season and if so will he be effective? Yes and yes (by December) 23. Points allowed by the defense 320 Special teams: 24. Will Bass last the season? Yes Practice Squad 25. Which initial PS player will have the biggest impact on the team this year? No one. However, if I have to pick one it's Lewis Cine. Safety injuries could persist and may need to be called up. Other 26. Any other prediction you care to mention? Coleman, Samuel and Shakir will combine for 215 receptions, 2,300 yards and 20 TDs. Answer as many or as few as you'd like. Anything I missed?
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I hope no one changed their W-L outlook based on who the Bills waived/released today. In fact I am sure no team's odds changed based on who was released today. The only caveat would be if there was a key player that was placed on season-ending IR that wasn't expected and I don't think that happened league-wide. The bottom of the roster (#49-53) churns all throughout the season for every team. It's necessary with injuries but what happens at the top of the roster that impacts how a team does, not who is the 6th WR or whether a team keeps 6 edge rushers or 5 vs. 10 DBs vs. 11.
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Cuts, Waiver Claims & 90 man roster depth: A study
jwhit34 replied to GunnerBill's topic in The Stadium Wall
Thanks for the info that's a lot of work (and writing). None of the 10 (9 if you only count McCloud once) have played meaningful snaps. The two most noteworthy are Kingsley Jonathan and Alex Austin (who had an INT vs. Allen). Everyone has bounced around mostly on practice squads. It's noteworthy that 9 (or 10) have been picked up but none have really "made it." As for Beane's success at finding NFL caliber players but not elite talent in the early rounds, I don't agree with that. If elite is All Pro, then sure but how many in each draft are on that level, 5-8? If you're not drafting in the top 10 you're probably not getting All Pros very often. Pro Bowl caliber to very good players, he has done pretty well. First rounders have all been good to excellent except Elam and there has been 2nd-3rd round successes like Dawkins, Cook, Spencer Brown, Bernard, Torrence. -
Aaron Kromer’s two strengths as an OL coach is tailoring techniques to best fit the players’ strengths and game planning. No game planning in this game so I am not too concerned about OL. Reality is you have 5 of the 6 who played meaningful snaps last year back they will figure it out, plus Torrence and Brown should still be ascending players. Super Bowl Bills routinely went 0-4 or 1-3 in preseason and often looked horrible.
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John Elway admits Josh Allen was his biggest regret
jwhit34 replied to 78thealltimegreat's topic in The Stadium Wall
The thing that isn't mentioned is that Beane has been on the record stating that they had a deal with Denver for the #5 pick if "their guy" (Bradley Chubb) was already taken. So if Chubb was gone, Elway still wasn't taking Allen, he would have dealt the pick to the Bills so they could pick Allen. So Elway would have turned down the chance to draft Allen no matter what. -
It seems that many have bemoaned the brutal stretches of the Bills' schedule each of the past few years. It is inevitable for division winners based on the way the schedule is put together, particularly now with the addition of the 17th game. Here is the schedule formula for an AFC division winner: 6 games - 2 games each vs. the other teams in your division 4 games - 1 game each vs. one of the other AFC divisions 2 games - 1 game each vs. the other AFC division winners 4 games - 1 game each vs. one of the NFC divisions 1 game - Vs. one of the other NFC division winners So, each team that wins their division play 5 of the other 7 division winners, and will play two, 2nd place teams (the games against the entire AFC and NFC divisions). That is potentially 7 playoff teams. They will only play 4 games outside of the division games vs. 3rd or 4th place teams. If you only have 4 games a year vs. non-division opponents that finished in 3rd or 4th place teams, which is just under 1/4 of your games, it is impossible to avoid really difficult stretches of games. And it is the same for all division winners, not just the Bills: Ravens start the season: Chiefs, Raiders, Cowboys, Bills, Bengals. Texans starting 11/10: Detroit, Dallas, Tennessee, Jacksonville, MIami, KC, Baltimore It's just how the schedule works.
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Buffalo Bills Schedule Discussion / Prediction Thread
jwhit34 replied to Warriorspikes51's topic in The Stadium Wall
Re: people saying schedule is tough/brutal: As long as they win their division, it will always be tough. Division winners play their 6 in-division games, then will always play 5 of the other 7 division winners and two 2nd place teams. That's 13 of the 17 games, the other 4 are the 3rd and 4th place teams from the divisions in which they play everyone (one NFC division, one AFC division). Should be used to that by now. -
Comparison of the Bills picks at beginning of the draft and now: Original 28, 60, 128, 133, 144, 160, 163, 200, 204, 248 Now 33, 60, 95, 128, 141, 144, 160, 163, 204, 221 Analysis: Picks retained: 60, 128, 144, 160, 163, 204 Trade down from 28 to 33 (-5) Trade up from: 133 to 95 (+38) 200 to 141 (+59) 248 to 221 (+27) That's good maneuvering presuming that their WR is still available.
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Live 2024 NFL Draft thread - Round 1 (Do NOT tip the Bills pick)
jwhit34 replied to Simon's topic in The Stadium Wall
But it is a move up from the end of the 6th to the top of the 5th so around 60 picks. That's essentially moving up 2 rounds. -
Good for him and good luck. As for the Bills impact, he had one really good season which he cashed in on with the big contract when he left the Bills the first time. Other than that, I always thought he was overrated for many of the reasons already detailed in responses, and also because a segment of the fans liked his "energy" and demonstrative persona on the field, which to me was a lot of over-hype. It reminds me of when fans wanted Cowher as the coach because he was fiery on the sidelines. I know he had a lot of injuries, but compare the 2019 season with the aggregate stats for the last 4 seasons (2 with Arizona, 2 with Bills): 2019: 16 games, 9.5 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, 16 QB hits 2020-23: 44 games (which means he missed 23 games due to injury), 9 sacks, 9 TFL, 18 QB hits I suppose if someone's willing to sign and pay you, why not keep going, but the falloff and injuries scream it's time to call it a career.
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The Bills are my #1 sports team by far but I love basketball, it's my favorite sport. Played it, coached it for a long time, our kids both played. I was in high school when the Braves left town. Super sad day for me. I actually went to high school with Paul Snyder's (Braves original owner) kids and played basketball with George Daddario's (who was the Braves VP of Marketing) son. Alas, Buffalo is not a basketball town as shown by many of the responses. I love March Madness. Every year me and 7-10 of my college buddies go to the first two rounds of the tournament somewhere. We target a destination site when the first couple rounds are not in the area that one of us live (love it when it's in Buffalo). The first day is awesome watching 4 games in person, then the off day we hang out and watch games on TV all day. Then the 2 round of 32 games are usually really good. The women's game has made March Madness even better. This year's women's tournament I think was better than the men's, it definitely had more star power between Caitlin Clark (the biggest star men or women's game), Camilla Cardoso, Paige Bueckers, and all the great coaches like Geno Auriemma, Dawn Staley and the controversial Kim Mulkey. For the basketball junkie, the first weekend when it's non-stop games from Thursday on is tough to beat. Sprinkle in the women's games and it's even better. But as much as I love the tournament, and can't get enough of the games, the Super Bowl is tough to beat. You're watching the whole thing. I think the NCAA does itself a disservice playing the men's championship starting at 9:20 PM on a Monday night. For east coasters, that's too late.
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Does Josh Allen still work as hard in the offseason?
jwhit34 replied to Buffalo_Stampede's topic in The Stadium Wall
No one on this board has any idea how hard Allen or any other player for that matter works in the offseason. It's all hearsay. -
Replay Review Approved for Game Clock Expiration before Snap
jwhit34 replied to bills742's topic in The Stadium Wall
This wouldn't be necessary if they adopted what basketball does - go to the tenths of a second in the last 5 seconds on the shot clock. While they are at it, they should also go to tenths of a second on the game clock in the final minute of each quarter. -
Actually, yes. Here's my rationale: The Bills currently have 58 players under contract. 15 "Cuttable" players: 1 punter (Martin or Haack), McKitty, Buechele, Kyron Brown, Isabella, Cline, Shorter, Davidson, Gouriage, Jarvis, Shavers, Thompson, Williamson, Hamler, D. Evans That takes them to 43 Other potential cuts include Tommy Doyle and Damar Hamlin They will probably sign a couple more free agents. Not all 11 picks make it but at least theoretically a draft pick will be better than an UFA. Maybe a late round pick or 2 make it back to the practice squad. If they draft a punter both Martin and Haack can go. There's a good chance all picks rounds 1-5 make it, that's 7 of the 11. With 3 6ths maybe 1-2 make the 53.
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Isaiah Hodgins Expected to Be Non-Tendered as RFA
jwhit34 replied to JGMcD2's topic in The Stadium Wall
Always amazes me this board's obsession/fixation on WR5/6 candidates like that is going to put the team over the top. What's a WR 5/6's WAR? .00000001? I'm much more intrigued with who they are interested in selecting in the 2024 NFL draft, hopefully in the 1st round. -
Our starting Center isn’t on the roster yet
jwhit34 replied to Big Blitz's topic in The Stadium Wall
The depth of the OL class may be one reason they moved on from both Bates and Morse. Cleared salary both this year and in future, and opened up 2 spots, which one was taken by Edwards and I think the other will be a developmental player in rounds 3, 4 or 5. This year's line can be Dawkins-Edwards-McGovern-Torrence-Brown with Alec Anderson, VanDemark and rookie draft pick as first 3 subs. Maybe Tommy Doyle stays healthy this year. That's good planning. -
Who's your breakout players for next season?
jwhit34 replied to JerseyBills's topic in The Stadium Wall
O'Cyrus Torrence, heard Eric Wood's podcast with Aaron Kromer he raved about him. -
Good holder and they are going to invest so much into offensive weapons that they are not planning on punting this season.
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Hines, Harty and Neal cuts would save $11.7 million, Allen convert salary to bonus would free up about $18-22 million depending how they do it. That gets them to about $11 million over the cap without impacting the roster really at all (RB4, WR5, special teams guy). Easy restructures/extensions for T Johnson, Douglas, Dawkins will get them under by $5-8 million, other things can be done without terrible future consequences, I bet they end up at least $20-25 million under at start of free agency.
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This is what I would guess for targets in '24: # passes per game: roughly 35 For 17 games that's 595, call it 600 Diggs 160 (same as in '23) Kincaid 100 WR2 80-90 Shakir 80-90 (call it 170 between WR2 and Shakir) That's 430 to your core WR/TEs Cook 60 Knox 35 WR 4/5/6 50 (3 per game) Other RB/TEs 25