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jwhit34

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  1. Almost all of the first 18 presidents owned slaves including Washington, Jefferson, Andrew Jackson and Grant. Even Ben Franklin owned slaves but eventually became a staunch abolitionist. Does Kaepernick refrain from carrying US currency that has Washington, Jefferson, Jackson, Grant and Franklin's picture? I guess we should remove all of them from our money. Political correctness run amok, this is right up there with the most ridiculous things. It's not the rest of the country's fault that some extremists are using the original US flag as a symbol of their cause. It's not like the country can forbid them from using it. And it's a big part of our history as a country. The cynic in me does wonder how much of this is orchestrated by Nike, they pull the shoes and then eventually they have all this inventory, if they go back and say they have reconsidered and are making them available they will probably sell like crazy.
  2. I read this article a few days ago, nothing in it surprised me. What's sad is that even on lower levels the parents are out of their minds. I have taken our daughter to a bunch of college softball camps that go all day. Most of the player there are going to play D2 or D3, there are a handful of D1 prospects. These camps go 6-7 hours and I'd say 90+% of the parents stay there all day and watch. I guess I am the bad parent that dump our kid off at 8:45 and comes back at 3:45 when she's almost done. I know a fair amount of college coaches and the thing they all say is they are taking note of the snowplow parents, or more importantly, taking note of the kids that function independently. They like that, also think the independent kid will adjust to college life much better. Even in the recruiting game which is not easy to navigate we have told our daughter that we will support her but she has to do the work, she has to contact the coaches, get on their radar, do the follow up, etc. We will take her for visits and camps and support her but she has to do the work. And the thing is it is working out well, she has a bunch of D1 schools interested and a very strong D2 offer from an excellent academic school that has the curriculum she is looking for. In the end she isn't going to be a pro softball player but if it helps her get into a good school and makes it a little cheaper, that's good. The other thing is that there are some really delusional and duped parents that spend thousands of $ every year playing on these super expensive travel teams or paying these recruiting services unnecessarily to get "exposure", One of the first things the college coaches tell you is don't waste you money signing up for these "priority" packages with outfits like NCSA or Field Level, they aren't relying on those services to find players. Up until this year we never paid more than $800 for a travel team, this year we bumped up to $1,700 but most of these "elite" programs are $3-10k plus they travel all over the country so add about $2-4k in travel, hotel & relate costs per year. It's nuts, people should just put that money in a 529 plan so they have it when their kids go to college. We got a late start because our daughter didn't even decide she wanted to play in college until her sophomore year and everything is working out just fine. And it was really important that she came to that decision on her own. We talked through it and told her from the outset, we don't care if you play or not, whatever you decide is okay with us and we will support you any way we can. Some of these kids feel the pressure to play from their parents and really aren't into it. And we made it clear she has to pick a school that she (1) likes a lot, (2) has the academic program(s) she wants and needs because if she decides she doesn't want to play anymore or gets injured we want he to be at a place that she is going to want to stay. Lots of parents just grab the best $ offer and the kid isn't happy there and/or doesn't get as good an education as they should. I know I wrote too much but this is a real hot button for me. It makes me sick being at these camps, tournaments and showcases and seeing these delusional adults that are putting all this pressure on the kids and setting them up for failure. I'm not worried about the Zion Williamsons of the world, but the kids a couple levels down are the ones that are getting impacted more. And as a result of the snowplowing done by their parents they are not prepared for the real world or even the college world. It's ironic the parents think they are helping them out immensely and they are doing the exact opposite. Kids have to experience failure, it's part of life and learning how to deal with it is important.
  3. Top 10 in league in total sacks by team was 44 or more in '18. Bills had 36. Sacks broke down this way for them: D Line: 20 (Hughes 7, K Williams 5, Lawson & Murphy 4 each) L. Alexander (hybrid LB/edge): 6.5 Other LBs: 4 DBs: 5.5 Blueprint to get to top 10: DL: 27 Alexander: 5 Other LBs: 7 DBs: 6 I think that is very possible. Good years from Hughes, Murphy Oliver and Lawson get them to 27 easily.
  4. Two other factors to this year's cap: 1. Players currently "below the line" of the 51 with cap hits of between $490k (Duke Williams) and $641k (Siran Neal) that have a chance to make the roster: Virtual locks (4): Robert Foster, Levi Wallace, V. Joseph, a punter Pretty good chance 3: S. Neal, J. Johnson, W. Teller Could make it (3):Tommy Sweeney, D. Johnson, D. Williams 2. That means to get to 53, 4-8 players "above the line" of 51 would get cut. Possibles with cap hit (net of dead money): Most likely to go with big $: Bodine $2.3M, Ducasse $2.0M On the bubble: Waddle $1.6M, Stanford $1.3M, In trouble but cheap: Sirles, R. Thomas, Rice, Pitts, Murphy, Harold, Perry (between $645-735k Also not certain: Bush $1,5M So there could be a net pick up of $3-4 million based on cuts.
  5. It's a good job and the offer went from 4 years for a total of $7.6 million to 6 years and $19.8, 2.5x more and that's guaranteed. That changes a lot. One may like their situation and the differential between what he was making and the first offer may not have been enough to entice him to move. They made it worth it to take the job, the cliche is everyone has their price and the Jets found his price.
  6. The exciting thing for me is that people are making good cases for: Beasley Morse Oliver O-Line in general Gore maybe Singletary John Brown Either it's a bunch of mediocrity, which I do not believe is the case (see Oliver, Morse, Beasley is a proven commodity) or the team brought in a lot of good players, which I do think is the case.
  7. I count about 43 locks to make it, from Sal's list the ones that are not locks: FB - Dimarco WR - Duke Williams TE - Fisher G - Teller DL - Yarborough LB - Alexander (though he's close because of ST) LB - Harold DB - J. Johnson DB - Neal P - Bojorquez I think either Fisher or Dimarco make it not both and J. Johnson and Neal could both make it but at least one will. If Carter's ACL is healed the punting competition could be pretty good. I think they keep 6 WRs If either Dimarco or Fisher do not make it I think they keep 9 OL and use 1 as the extra blocking TE (Waddle?) - that would give them 5 interior and 4 OTs I do think they keep Neal and J. Johnson
  8. A lot of teams talk about building through the draft, the Bills are doing it. Picks since McDermott and Beane arrived: 2017: Tre White, Zay Jones, Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano 2018: Josh Allen, Trumaine Edmunds, Taron Johnson, Harrison Phillips plus undrafted Levi Wallace and Robert Foster (I'm thinking Wyatt Teller doesn't make it) 2919: While they haven't played a down yet, Ed Oliver, Cody Ford and then we'll see who emerges from the rest (Knox, Singletary, Joseph, Johnson and Johnson) Though it is early to evaluate so far the results have been good. The GA signings are nice and fill holes but if they can consistently have drafts like they have had the last 3 years that will lead to sustained success.
  9. A good friend of mine worked for Kiper for over 10 years. Some of those years he was in Kiper's ear during the draft. Mel knows a lot but his staff, which numbers over 10, does the work, they are the guys that go out to scout, do the research and the evaluations. It was alway fascinating to talk to my friend about how they size up prospects. His staff are really the brains of the organization though my friend told me Mel has an amazing memory. Mel also treats his people really well. My friend was in charge of profiling the top 100 players and top 20 programs. One of the most interesting things with him: we were at a Syracuse basketball game and in the middle of the first half my buddy says to us, "watch the players over the next 5 minutes and tell me which one could play TE in the NFL and why."
  10. I count 39 locks to make the roster. As many as 6 free agents signed might not make the roster (Perry, Waddle, Spain, Roberts, M. Alexander, Fisher) and guys like Stanford, Lacey, Pitts, Bodine, Ducasse, McKenzie, Neal could be let go. A draft pick from rounds 1-5 that is cut is a wasted pick, but once you get into the 6th and 7th round you'd hope your team is good enough that those guys don't automatically make it. The Bills cut late rounders last year and the roster wasn't stellar (Austin Proehl). This roster isn't so good that having 10 picks (and 6 of 10 in rounds 5-7) is some crazy high number of selections.
  11. The roster is never full - if you can add a better player then you let the worst guy go. Example: if they draft an edge rusher/DE instead of Hughes, Lawson, Murphy and maybe Yarborough, Eddie's gone and draft pick sticks. Positional upgrade. Nothing's off the table. I also like the idea of trading down and getting picks in future drafts. Conventional thought is that a 2020 2nd round pick is worth a 2019 3rd. If #9 rolls around and there's 8 players they really like then trade down as far as 16 and pick up a future asset. Maybe you get a 2020 2nd and a 2019 3rd. Nothing wrong with that. New England has done that for years that's how they always seem to have 10-12 picks (plus they get compensatory picks a lot).
  12. There's 65 now, easy to cut 12: There's 11 WRs on roster (including Roberts the return guy), easy 5 cuts there 1 RB goes 11 Olinemen - there's 3 more 7 CBs and 5 safeties - they'll probably keep 5 and 4 so cut 3 2 punters 1 goes You're down to 52 and there's 5 DEs and 5 DTs so 2 more cuts there. If you look at the list there's easy cuts in those position groups. Maybe some get picked up but isn't that what you want?
  13. They have the money to do whatever they want, but they could even do some other moves and minimize the cap impact of a $15 million Bell signing: 1. Release or trade McCoy, saves $6.4 million 2. Release Ivory, saves $2.2 million 3. Release Ducasse, saves $2 million 4. With signing of Long and Morse can release Bodine, saves $2.3 million That still leaves them with over $50 million in cap space. Think about that for a minute...add Morse, Kroft, depth CB in Johnson, Gore, Long and L. Bell, really only lose McCoy and still have over $50 million in cap space. That's pretty good. Get another OL and a WR for $25M, have $25-30 million in cap space and 10 draft picks. That would be okay. Bell I would give a 3 year deal, like the thought of guaranteed $ in first 2 years when there is plenty of cap space and the QB and other young talent is on rookie deals. 3rd year is essentially a team option at that point.
  14. We will see, the best things about Beane so far are: 1. He has a plan and he's executing the plan 2. He seemingly had convictions on a QB and went and got him. 3. Seems to attract and recruit good personnel folks Now we need to find out if his plan was any good and whether he can execute on using all that cap space he created. By the way, stop with the "the Bills have the most cap space in 2020" talk. It's irrelevant until they make all their 2019 free agent signings, draft picks and any trades.
  15. My guess all along has been +/- $2 million, being a 1 year prove it deal, and Phillips saying the money will come down the road, my guess is it's under $2 million, maybe $1.5-1.75 million. He's a rotational guy, at least up to this point in his career, that got waived last year and although made some plays was inconsistent. He has a lot to prove and my guess his agent found out there's not much of a market for him. So they know he has some value in the Bills' system and that the Bills wanted him, which makes it a good place to try to prove future value (and play for a new contract). Good for both sides.
  16. Here is a good web site that steps through the methodology, at least per what people can ascertain since the league has never disclosed their formula: https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/ Hopefully the actual data helps dispels some of the conspiracy theories.
  17. The best or at least 2nd best line in team history was The Electric Co., Donnie Green was a 5th rounder in '71, Reggie McKenzie was the 1st pick in the 2nd round in '72 and then Paul Seymour (a TE but essentially the 6th OL man) was 7th overall and Joe DeLamielleure 26th pick in first round in '73. Bruce Jarvis, who was the C until Mike Montler came aboard, was a 3rd round pick in '71. The Super Bowl lines had high picks too (Wolford, Ritcher, Parker, Fina) and a picked up Hull from USFL (even better pickup than getting Montler). If the position is that loaded, I would like to see a move down and pick up and extra 2nd or 3rd, get 2 for OL in first 3 rounds. Pick up 1 or 2 in free agency then you have those 4, Dawkins and Teller for 5 spots, Bodine as a depth guy. There's 7 of the 8 or 9 you keep. Pick up another that's a project with one of those extra late round picks, I wouldn't mind seeing 3 OL men drafted with the 10 (or 11 if a trade down) picks. 3 OL 2 WR 1 TE Remaining picks best player available
  18. I was disappointed that Vlad Ducasse didn't make the list with his $83k in dead cap hit. The author listed just about everyone that had a big cap number and/or a down year and/or is getting older. Enough will happen that will enable him to say "see I told you so". I'm mad I at myself for taking the time to check out the list.
  19. Kelso's no better than 4th, I'd put George Saimes, Tony Greene and Kurt Schulz ahead of him. Freeman and Henry Jones were strong safeties. It actually has been a pretty strong position throughout team history, Kelso was good, J. Byrd was very good for a couple of years, Corey Graham and Troy Vincent were decent, Bill Simpson was good for a couple years (big INT in playoffs).
  20. Probably for the league minimum or close to it. Probably gave him a small signing bonus (less than $100k) so if he doesn't make the team it really doesn't matter in terms of dead cap. Signing any of the squids (last 10 on the 53) is fine. They will go to camp with 90. With Alexander and Sirles signing they have 51 under contract that were on the 53 at some point this year (some went to IR). They will draft 10 players which gets them to 61. With all the cap room maybe they use $60 million of it and sign 10-12 players that have played in the league (a few expensive guys but probably 4-5 that will probably cost no more than $6-7 million total if history is any indicator). At a minimum that makes the competition much better than in the past: 70-73 guys who have played in the league or are '19 draft picks. That means probably less than 20 roster fillers, which includes any undrafted FA from the '19 class, of which they usually have at least 6 of those guys. That leaves maybe a dozen roster spots for filler guys, which is probably half as many as in the past. So that's good.
  21. There are 32 jobs each as NFL OLine, Special Teams and Wide Receivers coaches. The thought that Buffalo isn't desirable is misplaced paranoia. Look how the fired head coaches, whose multi-million $ contracts are guaranteed, are jumping at the chance to be coordinators. The position coaches are football lifers and would jump at the chance to land one of the 32 most prestigious jobs in their profession almost regardless of the team. Whether they make a good choice, that's different but it's highly unlikely that someone says no because it's Buffalo.
  22. While I had a season ticket with my dad and his friend for 3 years when I was a kid (1973-75), I joined a group that bought 6 season tickets as an adult in 1986. I'm the only one left in the group and have been down to 4 seats for the last 10 years. Got to go to 2 Super Bowls through the ticket lottery which was very cool. It's getting tougher every year to fill them almost regardless of the team's performance. Our daughter loves the Bills, she goes to many games with me but is a junior in HS so she will be off to college in 2020. Our son (14) loves watching football but mostly watching on TV at home where he can watch multiple games. I am going to renew, but am on the fence on renewing 4 or 2 seats. I hate giving any up (we're 9 rows from field around 35 yard line on Bills side). The game is made for TV and the broadcasts are more and more innovative. The money generated through the TV contract is so much higher than ticket revenue that at some point the revenue ticket sales generates will be way down the list in terms of importance. If the Bills average ticket costs $100 (just to do simple math) and sell 70,000 seats to 8 regular season games that's $7 million per game and $56 million per season. The home team only keeps 60%, the other 40% goes into revenue sharing. Meanwhile the total TV money for the league is now closing in on $10 billion or around $300 million per team.
  23. Outside of the 12 rushing TDs other #s could be done. Grogan and Newton are only QBs ever to score 12 or more rushing TDs in a season. Jack Kemp is #3 all time rushing TDs by a QB (40). QBs have run for over 800 yards only 6 times in SB era so that would be quite an accomplishment.
  24. Not true - go to Spotrac and check out how teams allocate $ to DL. Invariably, the top 4 get almost all the money, and player #4 is around $2-3 million. All the rest, the rotational players, are almost always under $1 million, a few in the $1-2 million range. There are a few exceptions but if you click on the teams spending $25-32 million on DL you will find this distribution to be the norm. The Bills best 4 players on DL returning in '19 are Hughes, Murphy, Lawson and Star L. The two Phillips are next and will be in the $1-2 million slots. Jordan Phillips is not worth $3-4 million and they will not spend that much, nor will they have to on a guy who was waived this year. Start spending that kind of cash on backups and the Bills will end up back in cap jail in 3 years. The Bills can take a firm stance on this guy he is not getting a sniff in first free agency wave he is the prototypical 2nd or 3rd wave that has to settle for modest money.
  25. He is not getting anything close to $3.5-4 million a year. His rookie contract averaged just over $1 million/year and this year he was waived. He's a nice rotational player and I am glad the Bills are trying to re-sign him, but he's a $2 million/year player at the most, I could see a 2 year, $3.5 million deal that is $1 million per year in salary and a $1.5 million signing bonus, or 3 year, $5.5 million with salaries of $1M, $1.25M & $1.25M with a $2 million signing bonus. Let's not get carried away, decent player, good rotational guy good for 30-40 snaps a game.
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