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jwhit34

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Everything posted by jwhit34

  1. Yes and also I would think that there would be at least a handful of guys who could place kick and punt. You'd have a job for as long as you wanted. I agree the punter may not be on the roster. Only disagreements: Yeldon over Murphy Munnerlyn over Pitts Not keeping 7 WRs Williams doesn't make it they will keep a 7th LB for ST (V. Joseph), close call on Lacy vs. M. Alexander J. Johnson over Marlowe - Marlowe hit his ceiling, Johnson wins on potential (and pretty much same player) whoever is 4th S is inactive on Sunday since Neal can play S
  2. Not happening remember they used Alexander as a pass rusher last year.
  3. Everyone has this covered pretty well. I think from there the interesting thing will be who will be the 7 inactive players on game day. Clearly injuries factor into the equation, so I looked at it as how many by position would be active: QB - 2 RB/FB - 4 OL - 8 (especially with the injuries in the preseason) WR - 5 TE - 3 DL - 8 (McD loves the rotation) LB - 5 or 6 DB - 7 or 8 Specialists - 3 (P, K, snapper) So if that is the breakdown, who is inactive? RB - Yeldon OL - If they keep 9 and everyone is healthy, the starters are Dawkins, Spain, Morse, Ford, Nsekhe, subs Feliciano, Long, Bates? Teller inactive WR - If all healthy they are dressing Brown, Beasley, Jones and Foster, Roberts is return man, so it's McKenzie and/or Williams (if they keep 6 or 7) DL - If they keep 5 DEs, inactive Love because Johnson plays ST LB - Joseph if they keep him DB - Probably keeping 10, would inactive 2. Those will be tough choices, probably J. Johnson because Neal can play S, would they keep Munnerlyn just to have him inactive on game days? They are dressing the 4 starters, K. Johnson, T. Johnson, Coleman and Neal most likely. Also possible they only dress 7 OL since they have a lot of position versatility which could open up having 1 more DB active to play ST. This presumes that they keep 3 TEs and PUP Kroft at beginning of season. And there are always injured players. So there are going to be NFL-worthy players cut and some very decent players inactive on Sunday.
  4. KC Chargers New England Rams New Orleans If Andrew Luck is healthy I would add Indy Probably lose best 2 out of 3: Philly Bunch of teams are close that I would give an edge to until proven otherwise: Pittsburgh (though have a feeling they are going to be down without AB and Ben's a year closer to retirement) Dallas Cleveland (real deal or paper tiger?) Seattle But point is that as usual come the end of November there will be a lot of team names up on the dreaded "In The Hunt" graphic.
  5. Here are mine: 1. Devin Singletary will have the most touches (rushes + pass receptions) and yards from scrimmage of all RBs 2. WR production: Top 3 will combine for over 2,000 yards receiving (Brown and Beasley combine for 1,500, #3 - either Jones or Foster - will have 500) 3. TEs will combine for over 60 receptions and over 600 yards 4. Shaq Lawson will have more sacks than Trent Murphy 5. Defense will have at least 20 INTs and 30 takeaways 6. Josh Allen will have less than 500 yards rushing
  6. Agree 100%. If Allen pans out, the Bills are set at QB for years with him and Barkley (as long as Barkley is okay as back up). If one gets injured you want a vet that can play a couple games, not a developmental QB (see Eagles signing McCown). The obsession with the last 7 or so spots on the roster every year is amazing. The Bills churn the bottom 7 or so anyway based on need, look at all the moves at WR last year. Also the last RB last year was Keith Ford, he ends up getting about 10 carries and he's not even back on the 90 this year. Do the math: 32 teams, top 40 players on each team = 1280 players. The next 13 @ 32 teams: 416 players, there are probably 400-600 players that are really close to the ability level of those 416. 320 go on practice squads (players 54-63) and next 320 are players 64-73 on the training camp rosters. They are essentially interchangeable parts, every once and awhile you find a hidden gem but not that often. Allen and Barkley are the only QBs that matter for the foreseeable future.
  7. When comparing players in the rankings, especially ones playing the same position, I evaluated mostly by asking which player's Bills career would I rather have. With that in mind, here are some that I think are off: Tony Greene @ #81. He's 2nd all time with 37 INTs, played 9 years, made a pro bowl,was a good kick return man. DBs ahead of him: 79 Thomas Smith (6 career INTs) 74 Derrick Burroughs Charlie Romes @ #69 DBs ahead of him: 68 Jarius Byrd (great seasons, Romes and Greene pretty close and longevity) 60 Leodis McKelvin Jason Peters 1 behind Incognito
  8. He is a terrific story so far, his two plays have made the preseason more palatable. But, like so many RBs in past preseasons, he has made 2 plays against defenders who are going to get cut. the other reality is that with all the cuts coming at once, teams are looking to keep their own for practice squad or finding positions they need to shore up for backups. Vets with some experience are the ones who will be scooped up. Wade is still a big time project. Projects go on the practice squad and he will be on the Bills’ PS. Remember he is also 28 years old and while he doesn’t have football mileage on his legs he does have rugby miles. The only 28 year olds being picked up off waivers are ones who can contribute day one. great story but too many people are way over their skis on this one which seems to happen almost every preseason with a RB. This one is more unique but same type of thing.
  9. OC Cleveland 2009-10, Miami 2011, KC 2012. Ranked 32nd, 29th, 22nd and 24th, respectively, in yards per game. Bills were 30th last year. The Bills and Allen would have to have a KC/Mahomes type year for him to get consideration. I think they will be much better (middle of the pack on offense) but not top 5 or even top 10.
  10. The combination of Frazier's time to be considered for HC position has passed and many/most will think McDermott is the defensive architect almost entirely rules out Frazier. If the offense does well, Daboll is really a one hit wonder at that point. He has no head coaching experience at any level, his previous NFL stints as OC were unsuccessful and coaches from the offensive side of the Belichick coaching tree do not have a great track record as head coaches. So I'd say likelihood both are back is 95%, nothing is a sure thing.
  11. Well this made me think... War Memorial Stadium as a kid (1970-72): 5 My dad got season tickets '73-75, I cut lawns and save up my $ and paid for my ticket, went to 19 of 21 regular season games '76-86: 3 home games, 1 road game (Foxboro, 1984, was in grad school in Boston) away at school 6 of the years Got season tickets in '88, had ever since, so that's 31 seasons, best guess is that I've missed about 40 games so that's about 208 Never missed a home playoff game in that time, I think that's 10 playoff games Went to 2 Super Bowls (26, 28) So that's 235 home regular season, 1 road, 10 playoff games, 2 Super Bowls 248 total
  12. Duke Williams seems to be the latest in a long string of WRs that a lot of people are fascinated/intrigued by and significantly over value during training camp but really have little or no chance of making the team or really amounting to anything in the league. A partial list: Brandon Reilly Dez Lewis Kolby Listenbee And of course the all time favorite Da'Rick Rodgers Ray Ray is a nice story if he sticks and the WRs are an improved group for sure, but if Duke can't come close to beating out guys like Ray Ray, Isiah McKenzie (who probably won't make it but looks like he's ahead of Duke right now) then it's no great loss and he probably has marginal value as a practice squad guy.
  13. Actually they have 7 legit DBs: White, Wallace, Hyde, Poyer, T. Johnson, K. Johnson, Neal. Gaines was probably #8.
  14. Howard Ballard played RG his first year then took over for Joe Devlin in year 2. Ended up being a good transition. I could see the Bills doing the same thing with Ford.
  15. This is at the core of my premise, said much more succinctly. Injuries, players not panning out, result in teams panicking. Another response mentioned the impact of no early cut down day too. With players flooding the market, teams from #15 down in the waiver claim order will worry they won't get anyone good so they are willing to flip a 5 or 6 for a fringe player. Right now they have their own picks 1-6 but dealt #7 to Browns for Corey Coleman. I bet Beane would like to have a couple more. Also if they get off to a good start I could see him dealing a 3 or 4 for a player at a need position (rental) a la Benjamin trade.
  16. What about trading some of these guys: Russell Bodine and/or Wyatt Teller - neither are in top 7 or 8 If Kevin Johnson is good/healthy, Levi Wallace (still have EJ Gaines and Pitts to back up and T. Johnson as slot CB) Zay Jones, if not Zay, if Kaelin Clay can get traded multiple times, what about Ray Ray McCloud TJ Yeldon (?able possibility since he didn't get a lot of FA interest) Siran Neal With the exception of Zay, probably none cut into depth in any impactful way.
  17. Trade History Beane has made trades during the preseason both years. In '17 it was Watkins, Darby and Ragland but also the Kevon Seymour for Kaelin Clay and a pick (turned into Tommy Sweeney). Last year he dealt AJ McCarron but also did the ill-fated Corey Coleman deal. Trade and Draft Strategy Beane isn't shy about making trades and moving around at the draft. He has mostly moved up and by acquiring mid-late round picks has had the ammunition to move up a modest amount of slots to get guys they seem to like (Cody Ford, Dawson Knox this year) or hang onto them and pick more players. Roster Building While you want to have your best 53 players on the roster, the reality is that the bottom of the roster (10-13) are for NFL worthy developmental players that would not clear waivers so they can't be on the practice squad (5-7) and some special teams players. Even with key subs you have about 17 players play offense (4 WR, 3 TE, 5 OL, 4 RB/FB, 1 QB), 18 on defense (8 DL, 3-4 LBs, 6-7 DBs) and 4 specialists (P, K, long snapper, return specialist) on game days from your top 40 (the rest of special teams comes from the aforementioned bottom 10-13). With the draft picks and free agents, you can make a case that there is an oversupply of NFL caliber players at DB, OL and WR (and adequate depth at RB, QB and DL). Could Beane swing deals with the surplus (and was that part of the plan all along) if they are happy with developmental players taking the last spot in some of those positions? DBs and WRs are good examples: For WRs, Brown, Beasley and Jones seem locked in as top 3, Roberts is on the team as a kick/punt returner but may have WR value. Do they like McCloud or McKenzie enough to trade Foster or Jones? Could a WR desperate team (Giants?) trade a 3rd or 4th round pick for one of them? For DBs, specifically CBs, do they have 5 legit starter-worthy players (White, Wallace, K. Johnson, T. Johnson, Gaines)? Is Pitts good enough as an emergency fill in to trade one of those 5? What about Siran Neal as the big nickel? Even O-line, could some team take Bodine? Waddle? I won't suggest Ducasse on this board. So, I could see Beane trading a few players at the end of pre-season and picking up an extra 3 or so picks. Keep in mind it wouldn't be a guy they were cutting teams figure that out, but some of the young talent may be of interest. Example: if the interior OL is good with Spain, Morse, Feliciano and Long and a young guy like Boettger shows okay to be the inactive OL on game day could they trade Teller? I think this is a significant part of Beane's roster building strategy. He wants to build through the draft, retain their own, and stay out of cap jail. Always having 8-10 picks and the ability to get guys you really feel strongly about allows you to do that. Most of all it seems like he has a comprehensive strategy which is refreshing.
  18. I'd rather see the league go to two, 8 team divisions in each conference: AFC 1 : Buffalo, NY Jets, New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincy, Cleveland, Indy AFC 2: Miami, J'ville, Tennessee, Houston, KC, Vegas/Oakland, Chargers, Denver NFC1: Giants, Philly, Washington, Carolina, Tampa, Atlanta, Saints, Dallas NFC2: Rams, Seattle, Arizona, SF, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota 17 game schedule: 7 games vs. division opponents 6 games vs. other division in conference (you play each team 3 times every 4 years) 4 games vs. other conference (play each team once every 4 years) Playoffs: Division winners get a bye, next 4 best records play wild card round.
  19. Tom Sherman. In 1970 the players were on strike briefly during training camp. I was 8 years old, and the vets, including OJ and Paul Maguire, were working out on their own at ECC North. Sherman was a backup QB in 1969, was 2-2 passing and ran the ball twice that year. He was there working out. We went up there almost every day for about a week. After their practice, we were getting autographs and we couldn't find my younger (5 year old) brother. About 30 seconds after realizing he wasn't with us, here comes Tom Sherman carrying my brother. He was very nice, was happy to reunite us. I don't know if he made the team that year. The other thing I remember about those workouts is we were there on a Wednesday and they got done and Maguire says to a bunch of us, "hey you want to learn how to punt? Come back here at 7 tonight." We did, he showed up and put on a punting clinic. Maguire did some promotional work for our company about 8-9 years ago and I told him the story, he had some funny stories to tell about that strike year. Funny how you remember stuff like that almost 50 years later...impressionable youth.
  20. Almost all of the first 18 presidents owned slaves including Washington, Jefferson, Andrew Jackson and Grant. Even Ben Franklin owned slaves but eventually became a staunch abolitionist. Does Kaepernick refrain from carrying US currency that has Washington, Jefferson, Jackson, Grant and Franklin's picture? I guess we should remove all of them from our money. Political correctness run amok, this is right up there with the most ridiculous things. It's not the rest of the country's fault that some extremists are using the original US flag as a symbol of their cause. It's not like the country can forbid them from using it. And it's a big part of our history as a country. The cynic in me does wonder how much of this is orchestrated by Nike, they pull the shoes and then eventually they have all this inventory, if they go back and say they have reconsidered and are making them available they will probably sell like crazy.
  21. I read this article a few days ago, nothing in it surprised me. What's sad is that even on lower levels the parents are out of their minds. I have taken our daughter to a bunch of college softball camps that go all day. Most of the player there are going to play D2 or D3, there are a handful of D1 prospects. These camps go 6-7 hours and I'd say 90+% of the parents stay there all day and watch. I guess I am the bad parent that dump our kid off at 8:45 and comes back at 3:45 when she's almost done. I know a fair amount of college coaches and the thing they all say is they are taking note of the snowplow parents, or more importantly, taking note of the kids that function independently. They like that, also think the independent kid will adjust to college life much better. Even in the recruiting game which is not easy to navigate we have told our daughter that we will support her but she has to do the work, she has to contact the coaches, get on their radar, do the follow up, etc. We will take her for visits and camps and support her but she has to do the work. And the thing is it is working out well, she has a bunch of D1 schools interested and a very strong D2 offer from an excellent academic school that has the curriculum she is looking for. In the end she isn't going to be a pro softball player but if it helps her get into a good school and makes it a little cheaper, that's good. The other thing is that there are some really delusional and duped parents that spend thousands of $ every year playing on these super expensive travel teams or paying these recruiting services unnecessarily to get "exposure", One of the first things the college coaches tell you is don't waste you money signing up for these "priority" packages with outfits like NCSA or Field Level, they aren't relying on those services to find players. Up until this year we never paid more than $800 for a travel team, this year we bumped up to $1,700 but most of these "elite" programs are $3-10k plus they travel all over the country so add about $2-4k in travel, hotel & relate costs per year. It's nuts, people should just put that money in a 529 plan so they have it when their kids go to college. We got a late start because our daughter didn't even decide she wanted to play in college until her sophomore year and everything is working out just fine. And it was really important that she came to that decision on her own. We talked through it and told her from the outset, we don't care if you play or not, whatever you decide is okay with us and we will support you any way we can. Some of these kids feel the pressure to play from their parents and really aren't into it. And we made it clear she has to pick a school that she (1) likes a lot, (2) has the academic program(s) she wants and needs because if she decides she doesn't want to play anymore or gets injured we want he to be at a place that she is going to want to stay. Lots of parents just grab the best $ offer and the kid isn't happy there and/or doesn't get as good an education as they should. I know I wrote too much but this is a real hot button for me. It makes me sick being at these camps, tournaments and showcases and seeing these delusional adults that are putting all this pressure on the kids and setting them up for failure. I'm not worried about the Zion Williamsons of the world, but the kids a couple levels down are the ones that are getting impacted more. And as a result of the snowplowing done by their parents they are not prepared for the real world or even the college world. It's ironic the parents think they are helping them out immensely and they are doing the exact opposite. Kids have to experience failure, it's part of life and learning how to deal with it is important.
  22. Top 10 in league in total sacks by team was 44 or more in '18. Bills had 36. Sacks broke down this way for them: D Line: 20 (Hughes 7, K Williams 5, Lawson & Murphy 4 each) L. Alexander (hybrid LB/edge): 6.5 Other LBs: 4 DBs: 5.5 Blueprint to get to top 10: DL: 27 Alexander: 5 Other LBs: 7 DBs: 6 I think that is very possible. Good years from Hughes, Murphy Oliver and Lawson get them to 27 easily.
  23. Two other factors to this year's cap: 1. Players currently "below the line" of the 51 with cap hits of between $490k (Duke Williams) and $641k (Siran Neal) that have a chance to make the roster: Virtual locks (4): Robert Foster, Levi Wallace, V. Joseph, a punter Pretty good chance 3: S. Neal, J. Johnson, W. Teller Could make it (3):Tommy Sweeney, D. Johnson, D. Williams 2. That means to get to 53, 4-8 players "above the line" of 51 would get cut. Possibles with cap hit (net of dead money): Most likely to go with big $: Bodine $2.3M, Ducasse $2.0M On the bubble: Waddle $1.6M, Stanford $1.3M, In trouble but cheap: Sirles, R. Thomas, Rice, Pitts, Murphy, Harold, Perry (between $645-735k Also not certain: Bush $1,5M So there could be a net pick up of $3-4 million based on cuts.
  24. It's a good job and the offer went from 4 years for a total of $7.6 million to 6 years and $19.8, 2.5x more and that's guaranteed. That changes a lot. One may like their situation and the differential between what he was making and the first offer may not have been enough to entice him to move. They made it worth it to take the job, the cliche is everyone has their price and the Jets found his price.
  25. The exciting thing for me is that people are making good cases for: Beasley Morse Oliver O-Line in general Gore maybe Singletary John Brown Either it's a bunch of mediocrity, which I do not believe is the case (see Oliver, Morse, Beasley is a proven commodity) or the team brought in a lot of good players, which I do think is the case.
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