jwhit34

I count about 43 locks to make it, from Sal's list the ones that are not locks: FB - Dimarco WR - Duke Williams TE - Fisher G - Teller DL - Yarborough LB - Alexander (though he's close because of ST) LB - Harold DB - J. Johnson DB - Neal P - Bojorquez I think either Fisher or Dimarco make it not both and J. Johnson and Neal could both make it but at least one will. If Carter's ACL is healed the punting competition could be pretty good. I think they keep 6 WRs If either Dimarco or Fisher do not make it I think they keep 9 OL and use 1 as the extra blocking TE (Waddle?) - that would give them 5 interior and 4 OTs I do think they keep Neal and J. Johnson

A lot of teams talk about building through the draft, the Bills are doing it. Picks since McDermott and Beane arrived: 2017: Tre White, Zay Jones, Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano 2018: Josh Allen, Trumaine Edmunds, Taron Johnson, Harrison Phillips plus undrafted Levi Wallace and Robert Foster (I'm thinking Wyatt Teller doesn't make it) 2919: While they haven't played a down yet, Ed Oliver, Cody Ford and then we'll see who emerges from the rest (Knox, Singletary, Joseph, Johnson and Johnson) Though it is early to evaluate so far the results have been good. The GA signings are nice and fill holes but if they can consistently have drafts like they have had the last 3 years that will lead to sustained success.

A good friend of mine worked for Kiper for over 10 years. Some of those years he was in Kiper's ear during the draft. Mel knows a lot but his staff, which numbers over 10, does the work, they are the guys that go out to scout, do the research and the evaluations. It was alway fascinating to talk to my friend about how they size up prospects. His staff are really the brains of the organization though my friend told me Mel has an amazing memory. Mel also treats his people really well. My friend was in charge of profiling the top 100 players and top 20 programs. One of the most interesting things with him: we were at a Syracuse basketball game and in the middle of the first half my buddy says to us, "watch the players over the next 5 minutes and tell me which one could play TE in the NFL and why."

I count 39 locks to make the roster. As many as 6 free agents signed might not make the roster (Perry, Waddle, Spain, Roberts, M. Alexander, Fisher) and guys like Stanford, Lacey, Pitts, Bodine, Ducasse, McKenzie, Neal could be let go. A draft pick from rounds 1-5 that is cut is a wasted pick, but once you get into the 6th and 7th round you'd hope your team is good enough that those guys don't automatically make it. The Bills cut late rounders last year and the roster wasn't stellar (Austin Proehl). This roster isn't so good that having 10 picks (and 6 of 10 in rounds 5-7) is some crazy high number of selections.

The roster is never full - if you can add a better player then you let the worst guy go. Example: if they draft an edge rusher/DE instead of Hughes, Lawson, Murphy and maybe Yarborough, Eddie's gone and draft pick sticks. Positional upgrade. Nothing's off the table. I also like the idea of trading down and getting picks in future drafts. Conventional thought is that a 2020 2nd round pick is worth a 2019 3rd. If #9 rolls around and there's 8 players they really like then trade down as far as 16 and pick up a future asset. Maybe you get a 2020 2nd and a 2019 3rd. Nothing wrong with that. New England has done that for years that's how they always seem to have 10-12 picks (plus they get compensatory picks a lot).

There's 65 now, easy to cut 12: There's 11 WRs on roster (including Roberts the return guy), easy 5 cuts there 1 RB goes 11 Olinemen - there's 3 more 7 CBs and 5 safeties - they'll probably keep 5 and 4 so cut 3 2 punters 1 goes You're down to 52 and there's 5 DEs and 5 DTs so 2 more cuts there. If you look at the list there's easy cuts in those position groups. Maybe some get picked up but isn't that what you want?

They have the money to do whatever they want, but they could even do some other moves and minimize the cap impact of a $15 million Bell signing: 1. Release or trade McCoy, saves $6.4 million 2. Release Ivory, saves $2.2 million 3. Release Ducasse, saves $2 million 4. With signing of Long and Morse can release Bodine, saves $2.3 million That still leaves them with over $50 million in cap space. Think about that for a minute...add Morse, Kroft, depth CB in Johnson, Gore, Long and L. Bell, really only lose McCoy and still have over $50 million in cap space. That's pretty good. Get another OL and a WR for $25M, have $25-30 million in cap space and 10 draft picks. That would be okay. Bell I would give a 3 year deal, like the thought of guaranteed $ in first 2 years when there is plenty of cap space and the QB and other young talent is on rookie deals. 3rd year is essentially a team option at that point.

We will see, the best things about Beane so far are: 1. He has a plan and he's executing the plan 2. He seemingly had convictions on a QB and went and got him. 3. Seems to attract and recruit good personnel folks Now we need to find out if his plan was any good and whether he can execute on using all that cap space he created. By the way, stop with the "the Bills have the most cap space in 2020" talk. It's irrelevant until they make all their 2019 free agent signings, draft picks and any trades.

My guess all along has been +/- $2 million, being a 1 year prove it deal, and Phillips saying the money will come down the road, my guess is it's under $2 million, maybe $1.5-1.75 million. He's a rotational guy, at least up to this point in his career, that got waived last year and although made some plays was inconsistent. He has a lot to prove and my guess his agent found out there's not much of a market for him. So they know he has some value in the Bills' system and that the Bills wanted him, which makes it a good place to try to prove future value (and play for a new contract). Good for both sides.

Here is a good web site that steps through the methodology, at least per what people can ascertain since the league has never disclosed their formula: https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/ Hopefully the actual data helps dispels some of the conspiracy theories.

The best or at least 2nd best line in team history was The Electric Co., Donnie Green was a 5th rounder in '71, Reggie McKenzie was the 1st pick in the 2nd round in '72 and then Paul Seymour (a TE but essentially the 6th OL man) was 7th overall and Joe DeLamielleure 26th pick in first round in '73. Bruce Jarvis, who was the C until Mike Montler came aboard, was a 3rd round pick in '71. The Super Bowl lines had high picks too (Wolford, Ritcher, Parker, Fina) and a picked up Hull from USFL (even better pickup than getting Montler). If the position is that loaded, I would like to see a move down and pick up and extra 2nd or 3rd, get 2 for OL in first 3 rounds. Pick up 1 or 2 in free agency then you have those 4, Dawkins and Teller for 5 spots, Bodine as a depth guy. There's 7 of the 8 or 9 you keep. Pick up another that's a project with one of those extra late round picks, I wouldn't mind seeing 3 OL men drafted with the 10 (or 11 if a trade down) picks. 3 OL 2 WR 1 TE Remaining picks best player available

I was disappointed that Vlad Ducasse didn't make the list with his $83k in dead cap hit. The author listed just about everyone that had a big cap number and/or a down year and/or is getting older. Enough will happen that will enable him to say "see I told you so". I'm mad I at myself for taking the time to check out the list.

Kelso's no better than 4th, I'd put George Saimes, Tony Greene and Kurt Schulz ahead of him. Freeman and Henry Jones were strong safeties. It actually has been a pretty strong position throughout team history, Kelso was good, J. Byrd was very good for a couple of years, Corey Graham and Troy Vincent were decent, Bill Simpson was good for a couple years (big INT in playoffs).

Probably for the league minimum or close to it. Probably gave him a small signing bonus (less than $100k) so if he doesn't make the team it really doesn't matter in terms of dead cap. Signing any of the squids (last 10 on the 53) is fine. They will go to camp with 90. With Alexander and Sirles signing they have 51 under contract that were on the 53 at some point this year (some went to IR). They will draft 10 players which gets them to 61. With all the cap room maybe they use $60 million of it and sign 10-12 players that have played in the league (a few expensive guys but probably 4-5 that will probably cost no more than $6-7 million total if history is any indicator). At a minimum that makes the competition much better than in the past: 70-73 guys who have played in the league or are '19 draft picks. That means probably less than 20 roster fillers, which includes any undrafted FA from the '19 class, of which they usually have at least 6 of those guys. That leaves maybe a dozen roster spots for filler guys, which is probably half as many as in the past. So that's good.

There are 32 jobs each as NFL OLine, Special Teams and Wide Receivers coaches. The thought that Buffalo isn't desirable is misplaced paranoia. Look how the fired head coaches, whose multi-million $ contracts are guaranteed, are jumping at the chance to be coordinators. The position coaches are football lifers and would jump at the chance to land one of the 32 most prestigious jobs in their profession almost regardless of the team. Whether they make a good choice, that's different but it's highly unlikely that someone says no because it's Buffalo.

While I had a season ticket with my dad and his friend for 3 years when I was a kid (1973-75), I joined a group that bought 6 season tickets as an adult in 1986. I'm the only one left in the group and have been down to 4 seats for the last 10 years. Got to go to 2 Super Bowls through the ticket lottery which was very cool. It's getting tougher every year to fill them almost regardless of the team's performance. Our daughter loves the Bills, she goes to many games with me but is a junior in HS so she will be off to college in 2020. Our son (14) loves watching football but mostly watching on TV at home where he can watch multiple games. I am going to renew, but am on the fence on renewing 4 or 2 seats. I hate giving any up (we're 9 rows from field around 35 yard line on Bills side). The game is made for TV and the broadcasts are more and more innovative. The money generated through the TV contract is so much higher than ticket revenue that at some point the revenue ticket sales generates will be way down the list in terms of importance. If the Bills average ticket costs $100 (just to do simple math) and sell 70,000 seats to 8 regular season games that's $7 million per game and $56 million per season. The home team only keeps 60%, the other 40% goes into revenue sharing. Meanwhile the total TV money for the league is now closing in on $10 billion or around $300 million per team.

Outside of the 12 rushing TDs other #s could be done. Grogan and Newton are only QBs ever to score 12 or more rushing TDs in a season. Jack Kemp is #3 all time rushing TDs by a QB (40). QBs have run for over 800 yards only 6 times in SB era so that would be quite an accomplishment.

Not true - go to Spotrac and check out how teams allocate $ to DL. Invariably, the top 4 get almost all the money, and player #4 is around $2-3 million. All the rest, the rotational players, are almost always under $1 million, a few in the $1-2 million range. There are a few exceptions but if you click on the teams spending $25-32 million on DL you will find this distribution to be the norm. The Bills best 4 players on DL returning in '19 are Hughes, Murphy, Lawson and Star L. The two Phillips are next and will be in the $1-2 million slots. Jordan Phillips is not worth $3-4 million and they will not spend that much, nor will they have to on a guy who was waived this year. Start spending that kind of cash on backups and the Bills will end up back in cap jail in 3 years. The Bills can take a firm stance on this guy he is not getting a sniff in first free agency wave he is the prototypical 2nd or 3rd wave that has to settle for modest money.

He is not getting anything close to $3.5-4 million a year. His rookie contract averaged just over $1 million/year and this year he was waived. He's a nice rotational player and I am glad the Bills are trying to re-sign him, but he's a $2 million/year player at the most, I could see a 2 year, $3.5 million deal that is $1 million per year in salary and a $1.5 million signing bonus, or 3 year, $5.5 million with salaries of $1M, $1.25M & $1.25M with a $2 million signing bonus. Let's not get carried away, decent player, good rotational guy good for 30-40 snaps a game.

Wonder where Taron Johnson ranked - would be pretty neat to have 2 of the top 10-12 rookies at the position per PFF especially given one was a 4th rounder and one an undrafted free agent.

I also wouldn't be surprised if they add Derek Anderson to the coaching staff.

Agree, I wouldn't be surprised if it's a combo of what they have observed in terms of chemistry between Allen and Barkley, they may have asked Allen about it, and what they see skill-wise in Barkley.

Per Spotrac, the Bills projected cap situation in '19: Committed Salaries (39 players) $104.3 million Dead Money 3.0 million Total Cap Used 107.3 million Projected Cap including rollover $196.0 million If the Bills release McCoy, Clay and Ducasse, this is how it would change: Committed Salaries (36 players) $ 84.3 million Dead Money 10.0 million Total Cap Used $ 94.3 million Cap space to spend $101.7 million They have 10 draft picks and using 2018 as a guide and building in about 10% inflation they will need about $10 million reserved to sign them. If you figure the 5 picks in rounds 1-4 will count against the cap (top 50 salaries count through training camp) and estimating that those salaries will be about $7.5 million, that gives the team 41 of the 53 players, about $102 of the cap used leaving $94 million to spend to fill the 12 roster spots. What might that look like? They have a lot of flexibility, here's one scenario: 3 offensive linemen for an average cap hit of $9 million - $27 million spent (thinking 2 @ $11M & 1 @ $5M) 2 WRs for an average of $9 million - $18 million spent (1 at $12-13M & 1 @ $5-6M) 1 TE for $7 million 1 backup QB for $3 million 1 defensive player at $6 million 4 depth players for an average of $1.5 million - $6 million spent That's $67 million spent leaving $27 million in cap space. In the draft, add 1-2 WRs, at least 1 OL, 1 RB, 2 defensive players, rest best player available. What this illustrates is that they can go after some big name free agents if they want and leave themselves in an enviable position at the draft to truly go with the best player available and/or be able to trade down and amass more picks for now or the future. If they want K. Williams and Alexander back, they have plenty of room to do that, they made a combined $8 million this year, they would probably cost a little less in '19 since they're a year older, plus they would be 1 year deals so it wouldn't impact roster/cap management beyond 2019. We are probably looking at about 20 new players on the team for 2019 which would be remarkable given the roster churn already in the first 2 years of McDermott/Beane.

He should add 10 pounds and become a TE. Or maybe lose 10 pounds and become a TE...

If you're not drafting a QB in the first round, the "wins screw up getting a high pick" really doesn't make sense. The worse your record is indicates that you have poor players and more holes to fill. If the Bills can go 3-2 the rest of the way and finish 7-9, it will most likely indicate that there are more players on the team that are keepers and part of the future. I think players that fall into that category would be: OFFENSE: Wyatt Teller, Robert Foster (a #3 or #4 WR), Isiah McKenzie (return man, situational offense for jet sweeps, #4 or #5 WR), Jason Croom (#2 TE), Marcus Murphy (#2 or #3 RB) maybe Sirles emerges as a depth OL guy DEFENSE: Taron Johnson (looking good as nickel CB), Levi Wallace (#2 or #3 CB), Jordan Phillips (rotational DT), guys like Edmunds , Harrison Phillips and Milano seem solid in their roles. While having solid depth guys isn't exciting, it makes it way easier to draft and go to free agent market. Then they can focus on adding a #1 WR, at least 2 to OLine (maybe they get by 1 more year with Bodine at C and fill the other spots), TE and on D look to add pash rusher (eventual replacement for Hughes). Wins mean the team is better it's not a bad thing for building for future. Of course for any of this to work Allen needs to be the right one for QB or it's back to the drawing board.