billsfan89

Overall I would say that the value might be there at edge. Even factoring in franchise tags and players resigning there will likely be several prime Edge free agents on the market. I think the market and need for an edge defender (even if Shaq is retained) lines up. Whereas I don't see the value on the WR market. Cooper is the only young stud WR on the market (and he has concerns) the rest of the players are older or more questionable less proven younger players. So I think the value might not be there. Then again WR was thought to be a weak market in Free Agency last season and Beane did hand out retail value contracts to Brown and Beasley (They turned out to be good signings but the value for the production they had going into 2019 wasn't a great value for the aav they got.) I actually trust McBeane (the first time I have ever actually trusted a GM/Coach/Management of the Bills since I have been a fan) if he lets guys walk they weren't a good value and if they bring someone in it makes sense. Granted there have been some bad moves (looking at Kroft and Murphy) but overall they have proven to be excellent at drafting and more than capable in free agency (esp when they have the cash to spend.) My hope is they retain 2-3 of their starting free agents (Spain, Shaq, and Phillips) and then add at least 2 starting pieces to help fill some holes going into the draft (Along with some depth/role players to help round out the roster) where they can be in a position to plug in the final remaining 1-2 starting pieces needed and add stronger depth.

As a kickoff returner, I can't honestly think of a dynamic return he had, maybe there was a couple of times he got the ball out to the 40 or close but I can't say he had a bigger return than that. However he didn't produce any turnovers and he didn't have many bad returns either. But as a punt returner I think he was easily top 10 in the league. No muffed punts and while he never had game breaking returns on punts he always had quality returns that added up. He had many 6-10 yard returns that might not seem like much but help shift field position significantly.

Good for him, better to get out a few years too early than a few years too late.

All fair points, I do agree that I would not dramatically overpay for Shaq. But I would be willing to pay retail to keep him (8-9 million aav with a manageable out after 2021.) I think that if you could he would be somewhere around 7 million (Spotrac has him at 7.6 million aav and they are usually accurate + or – 1.5 million on most signings.) I view him as a 3rdDE (who is a starter on running downs) who can grow into a high end starter. I think given what we pay Murphy for far less production I would be more than comfortable cutting Mucphy and giving his cap hit over to Shaq plus maybe a million. Now if Shaq goes over 9 million aav on the market I do let him walk (I would consider 9 million aav a “Fair Overpay” by NFL Free Agency standards) I think at that point you could take your dollars elsewhere and at worst keep Murphy to be a rotational player and sign Yannick to take the starting role (Either way I would love to have Yannick start opposite Hughes.) I also am interested to see what Phillips, Spain and Shaq all command on the market. Spotrac estimates that Shaq is 7.6 million aav and Phillips a 6.1 million aav. I would be ecstatic if I could get both with easy outs after 2021 for those numbers even plus one million (Thus a 15.7 million dollar total cap hit with easy outs after 2021 when cap space might be a crunch.) They don’t have an estimate on Spain but it would be interesting to see what he commands. Given McBeane’s history with roster/cap management I would trust that they value their own properly and sign these players responsibly.

I don't get the heavy desire for AJ Green, the dude is coming off of back to back injury prone seasons (he literally missed all of 2019 and half of 2018) and another injury riddled campaign in 2016. His production hasn't been elite since 2015 either. Even in 2017 his last healthy season he was decent but only really a high volume stat inflated season. I am not saying that I wouldn't like to see Green as a vet stop gap for one year (Even if it cost a lot of money like 12+ million.) I don't think this team should invest in a 32 year old receiver who hasn't been a truly elite player since 2015. I think a lot of fans are getting fooled by the big name of AJ Green as opposed to the production he is likely to produce in 2020 and beyond. I just don't think he really fits unless it is on a one year deal.

Liguet while not a horrid player seems to be a JAG. I didn't find that he had much more of an impact on the improving run defense. I would love to keep Phillips as I think counting on Henry off an injury is a bit risky and you need depth esp up the middle. I would get letting Phillips walk as Star is a good run stuffer, Oliver a good pass rusher, and you can understand taking the risk on Henry being depth and then adding a rotational player to round things out. But I think there is a lot of value in having Phillips there too.

Outside of that comment about Lawson wanting to get paid (which is fair in football when you might only get one shot at a significant contract) I don't know what makes you think Lawson is someone who would "Get Paid, Get Lazy." Unless I am missing/forgetting something I don't know what else would lead you to believe that Shaq is a bad egg.

The catch 22 is outside of Cooper (who will come at an insane cost) what vet on the market can come in and fill that need and be healthy? I agree that it would be optimal to get a WR1 who is a vet as opposed to counting on a rookie but is Robby Anderson that much better than a first round pick? I like the depth argument better but I just don't see what reciever on the market makes sense for the Bills.

I think given who is on the market and what the need for the team is I would strongly prefer they sign a top pass rusher. I think Yannick is the guy they need to target. He will be 26 in 2020 which means he fits the timeline of the team perfectly (highly productive the next 3-4 seasons where they can take advantage of Josh's rookie deal) and would come at a price that I think could make sense (just as the cap gets tight they get off of Hughes and Star's contracts.) I don't think they need to go with a WR like Cooper because you are going to over pay even by the standards of free agency. The Pass Rushers market is much more flushed and I would love to see them fill a need in that market.

I think Cooper is a good player who would help the offense. But I think he is a bit too inconsistent (Has a case of the dropsies now and again along with disappearing in certain games) to justify his expected large contract (I would say he gets 17-18 million aav.) I think AJ Green is hurt too much recently, I would love to take him on a one year prove it deal (even if it is a 14 million dollar deal) but I think he is going to want to get a multi-year deal which he might get. Emmanuel Sanders isn't the type of WR the team needs and is a bit older. Larry Fitz I don't see playing outside of Arizona. As far as guys like Robby Anderson and Perriman I would love them both on a one year deal for 10ish million but I think both want that big multi-year contract. I think in the end the Bills are probably going to address WR in round 1 unless a trade that is advantageous comes along. I just don't see the team dipping into a big acquisition for Cooper or being able to get a bridge deal with any of the vets.

Sammy looked a little bummed when KC was down 24-0 (a considerable deficit) a teammate told him to be more positive and he became more positive. This is a non-story. I get why Sammy has a bit of a rep in how he left the Bills and Rams but he hasn't really had much going on as far as being a major issue on KC (Unless I am missing something.) His bigger issue isn't in the locker room but rather due to his inability to stay healthy. I don't think Sammy even if he stayed healthy was ever going to live up to his draft hype (This guy was being seriously compared to some HOF type players coming out of the draft.) But I do think that if Sammy could stay healthy he could be a DeSean Jackson type burner WR1. He just has to stay healthy and keep himself from getting into any drama (Which on KC he has.) Overall I just don't particularly care about him, it has been 3 seasons since he has been here. Move on.

Kroft was in my opinion the worst signing of the 2019 off-season (although the off-season was mostly littered with great signings.) Even factoring out the fact that he got hurt I would still say they overpaid for a backup TE with moderate upside. In my opinion Kroft is as good as gone in 2020 as he is set to make 6.5 million and if cut saves 5 million on the cap. Yes the Bills cap isn't an issue but if you sign Spain, Phillips and Shaq to deal (even 2 out of the 3) that 89 million in cap space will go down significantly esp if this team wants to preserve 30-40 million in roll over cash. This team could seriously use that 5 million in space if they intend to resign 2-3 of their free agents and desire roll over space. I don't see any value Kroft provides at 6.5 million, I would much rather just cut him and sign Hunter Henry or another vet TE to a one year deal to allow Knox to develop a bit more. I don't see any team trading for Kroft esp at a 6.5 million dollar cap hit. I think the Bills options are cut him and take 1.5 million in dead cap (but save 5 million overall) or keep him at a 6.5 million dollar cap hit. Personally I cut him and save the space.

Other team's front offices have their own analytics, PFF are essentially amateurs who watch a lot of football and attempt to grade each play. Front offices have actual staff who attempt to quantify how good players on their team and other teams are.

That makes sense, if you are driven by "me against the world" then suddenly when the world is on your side you lose your edge. I hope he realizes that you have to keep grinding on it if you want to be great.

It's weird because Baker seems like such a competitive guy that you would think he would just keep working to be better. Character was never much of an issue in terms of work ethic when he was coming into the league. But everyone can get high on their own supply I guess. Hopefully the wake up call sticks and he gets some good coaching. It would be nice for the AFC North to have 3 top teams beating up on each other.

The Window to win in the NFL is small. This team has enough cap space and not many long term commitments to both retain their own free agents and add a couple of significant contracts. This team can add a big contract like Yannick, resign Spain, Lawson and Phillips and the other lesser free agents, and still have plenty of roller over to help take care of future extensions. Don't take your chance to win for granted. The NFL is a year to year league.

I also think that Baker had assumed his own invincibility after years and years of success from Oklahoma to a highly productive rookie year he had no reason to believe that he would keep going upward. But I think mentally he had assumed that if he kept just doing what he had been doing that it would just work out. I think if he gets humbled by this past season that is going to be a good thing for him long term. If the Browns can get a quality coach and improve their O-line and defense I don’t see why Baker couldn’t lead the Browns to a successful season of 9-10 wins. Sometimes players need to be punched in the mouth (metaphorically) in order to combat resting on their own reputation.

Funchess wouldn't be an awful signing on a low end one year deal but considering his best season was 850 yards and he is coming off of an injury I don't consider it to be any signing with any sort of impact. He would be a reclamation project for a team that needs a bit of immediate pop. I think WR is the pick at pick 22 and then they are better off trying to get Robby Anderson or Perriman on a 9-10 million dollar one year deal or even kick the tires on AJ Green for a one year 10ish million dollar deal if that's the market for him. OR draft a WR in round 1 and sign Hunter Henry to a one year deal to add a big body at the tight end position.

If I am mocking my game plan for the off-season I would peg it as such. 1- Cut Murphy and Kroft free up nearly 10 million more in cap space. 2- Resign Lawson, Spain, and Phillips to a combined 27.5 million aav thus still having nearly 74 million in cap space. 3- Sign Yannick to a deal in the range of 17.5 million aav to step up the pass rush 4- Sign Hunter Henry to a one year 7.5 million deal to help add a big target for Allen and allow Knox and Sweeny some time to develop. 5- Draft a big bodied WR in round 1 and draft a between the tackles runner in round 4. 6- Add a CB in round 2 to finalize an elite defense and add a LB in round 3 to sure up that position. All that should still allow the Bills to have about 28 million in roll over to help when Dawkins and Milano need extensions in 2020 while adding Yannick and Henry to help supplement the existing roster and keeping the core free agents. When Tre's contract is up Star and Hughe's contracts become expiring thus this team has a 2 year window to win and win big. Winning beyond the next two years will depend on the drafting in 2020 and beyond as well as Josh's development. But with the existing talent core and the current cap situation you have to be able to "go for it" to an extent in the short term.

I think they make an effort to resign Spain I also don't think they are going to make a move for Conklin. I think they like Ford and view Ty as a nice option. Ford improved a lot as the season went on, give him another off-season to learn and work on things (he was considered to be a bit raw coming out of the draft) and I think he improves. Better to spend the free agency dollars elsewhere in my opinion. Although I will never ever hate spending more on the o-line I do understand why they wouldn't go after Conklin.

I would rather kick Ford inside to take over for Spain if the team is going to sign Conklin. The O-line with Ty, Long, Bates and others still has tons of quality depth.

I would rather spend cap dollars on a mid-level or lower veteran between the tackles RB or a mid-round pick. I like Yeldon as depth and Singletary as the lead back so I don't think RB is a major need worthy of sinking big cap dollars into. Henry would be an amazing add but at 10+ million aav for a position that deprecates quickly is not what the Bills should commit to. I wouldn't mind signing Carlos Hyde to a one year 4.5 million dollar deal or another veteran runner to that type of deal or just go with a RB in round 4ish. As far as free agent WR's Amari Cooper will be the big name but at nearly 20 million aav I would pass if he hits the market, he is good but also drops a lot of passes and disappears in a lot of games. AJ Green is the other big name but he has been often injured in recent years and while I would love to have him on a one year deal (even at 10+ million) I think he wants a longer commitment. Larry Fitzgerald can still contribute but I think the team needs more pop and speed as opposed to a solid possession receiver. E.Sanders is an interesting option but certainly older and on the smaller side. The only other names that could be interesting are Robby Anderson and Perriman. I would go after either Anderson or Perriman on higher one year deals (even if it cost 10 million) to bridge a rookie draft pick and provide depth as opposed to spending big on Cooper or Green or to a lesser extend Sanders. Even if Anderson came at a larger commitment I would be interested in seeing what he has to offer as he is a 6 foot 3 speedster who has produced decently on some awful offenses. Another more interesting way to go about it would be to add some pop to the skill position core by going after a top tightend. I like Knox long term but it would be good to let him develop for one more year as a backup as opposed to forcing him in over his head. I think Hunter Henry on a one year deal at about 7.5 million would be a smart add and then you can go WR in round 1 while going RB in round 3 or 4 and then fill a defensive need in round 2. Overall I think the free agency dollars are going to be spent on the defense and retaining the team’s own free agents. I think they add a CB2 and a prime time pass rusher via free agency and then turn the attention of the draft to address WR, O-line, and RB with maybe one or two mid-level offensive signings to boost areas of depth/role players. Either way I think McBeane should make an effort to improve the team significantly but without making more than 1-2 major big commitments.

I used to try and defend PFF but man are they getting really bad.

Does anyone know how accurate Spotrac is when it comes to their "Market Value" estimations? Like comparing what they thought players would get to what they actually got?

In the NFL when you might only have a chance at one big contract you should get as much as you can (or at least get as much you can in guarantees) so I can't blame the guy. While I am sure he made nice money on his rookie deal he needs to set himself up for life with this next deal. I think you shouldn't overpay for Shaq, I think ideally the Bills will come in at 8 million aav whereas he is going to want 10 million aav. I think ultimately they split the difference and settle at 9 million aav. But free agency in the NFL can get whacky so who knows. I think keeping Phillips is more pressing but having Shaq locked in at a reasonable rate is good.