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Everything posted by billsfan89
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Free Agency - March 18 - Who do you want?
billsfan89 replied to wppete's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The way I look at it is this team needs to fill 2-3 needs, retain at least 2 of the team’s 3 primary free agents, and roll over 30 million in cap space to help with future extensions of Milano, White, Dawkins, Poyer, and others. As far as “Taking care of our own” I want to see this team retain 2-3 of the major free agents (Shaq, Phillips, and Spain.) Personally I think all 3 have relatively equal value to this team (quality starters but none worth overpaying for considerably.) I think that you have to attempt to resign each one but you can kick Cody inside to replace Spain and find other free agents to replace Phillips and Shaq. While a modest overpay is considerable I don’t think they need to go crazy for either. My ideal off-season would be to cut Murphy and Kroft while adjusting Long’s deal to take a modest pay cut (thus kicking you up to 102 million in cap space) and then you would resign Spain, Shaq, Phillips and Kevin Johnson to deals that would occupy 24 million total (7.3 milion aav average for Spain, Shaq and Phillips and 2 million for Johnson.) Then with the remaining 78 million in cap space I think you can spend 38 million responsibly while having 10 million for the draft pool and 30 million in roll over. With the 38 million I would go after in the following ways. Sign Yannick 18 million aav deal. Fill the need for a big time edge defender and an upgrade to the edge pass rush. In one fell swoop you fill one of the team’s two biggest needs with a 26 year old player who is a difference maker. Sign a vet pass catcher to a short term deal. I think you don’t need to sign a big time player like Cooper or AJ Green but I think you need to find someone proven that can help add depth. Either a Hunter Henry or a Robbie Anderson type on a deal that is easy to get out of after 2021 or ideally a one year deal. I think you can afford to spend up to 10 million on this type of player as long as the cap commitment isn’t hard to get out of long term. Use the remaining 10 million to add depth. Beane has proven great at bargain hunting. He can get players sub 5 million aav and get them to be solid starters. Secondary type needs like bruiser RB, Linebacker, safety/corner depth, and other needs can be filled using this remaining cap space. Going into the draft you should have 2 big needs filled and a deep team. I would go with a WR in round 1, a corner in round 2, a LB in round 3 and a running back in round 4. Filling out the remaining needs of the roster. -
Let's say McD had the same run Reid had in Philly (5 Conference Championship games and a Super Bowl appearance, along with 9 total playoff appearances in 14 seasons and only 3 losing seasons) here in Buffalo fans would call him arguably the greatest coach the team ever had. I don't think anyone would be doubting his ability to coach the team. Yes after the Bills sustain success (thus fans get used to success) and keep failing the fans expectations will be higher and things will shift to questioning if McD would be the guy to take the team over the top. But I don't think most fans would call McD a bad coach and treat the team as though they suck. It's one thing to say Reid has issues with XYZ and those might hamper him winning a Super Bowl, but Philly fans acted like Reid was a hapless idiot who wasn't a good coach. I think Reid got a raw deal from Eagles fans as far as his work there. Yes you could argue they should have won a Super Bowl with that talent and that Reid maybe made mistakes in his tenure there that made the difference. But that also ignores the tremendous work Reid put into getting them into contention. Reid put together a great coaching staff, by 2001 he was the defacto GM thus he put together the roster he developed a lot of players on both sides of the ball, and he developed a great offensive system that kept them high up in offense despite not having an elite receiver beside TO and then later on Maclin and D-Jax. The work Reid did with the Eagles was tremendous and the fans to this day act like he was a terrible coach. Fair to say he had some flaws with things like game management, but to act like he was a clueless moron and anyone else would have won is just pure idiotic Philly fan mentality.
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6 years 200 million with 135 guaranteed. Mahomes sets the market at 40 million which is 5 million more than the 35 million the next highest QB makes (Russell Wilson.) Mahomes has to not only top the market but top it considerably. I also think that while Mahomes could command a little more than 40 if he really wanted to apply the pressure he could get more but I think he doesn't want to over leverage his cap situation and make the team around him worse. Assuming they pay him 40 million plus there will be cap issues for sure. But if you have the best QB in the game that is such an advantage over other teams that it is worth taking on those cap issues and figuring the rest out.
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I am really happy for Reid, he was treated like such trash in Philly and until Mahomes was treated as a good coach who would never win a Super Bowl in KC. But now he wins the big one and his career which was already a HOF career is now cemented with a championship. Seriously if you talked to Eagles fans during Andy Reid’s years you would think the Eagles were complete trash during his era there instead of one of the most successful teams in the league.
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Carr's cap hit is only 21.5 million (which is modest for a QB who threw for 4k yards, 70% completion percentage and nearly 3 to 1 TD to INT ratio) and he is probably better than any QB on the market if not in the top 2. I think the Raiders could easily get a 2nd round pick for him. Assuming Dak is franchised and extended, what QB on the market is better than Carr? I can't think of many.
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The Vegas move has flushed them with far more cash than they anticipated due to casino money coming in at a higher rate than realized. The Vegas move also has them flushed with cash in sponsorships and various other opportunities they didn't have in Oakland. Cash will not be an issue for them at least not in the next 5 year as they are guaranteed sell outs at premium prices and will see so much more money in other avenues. I don't think the Mack move was motivated by money in all honesty. The very next season they were willing to pay AB about the same amount of money up front.
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The Raiders just sold out their PSL's and season tickets on their new stadium. Casinos buying up tickets basically gives them guaranteed money flowing. Cash is no longer an issue. Also it was more so rumored that Gruden didn't think Mack was worth the money as opposed to not having the money. After all they are paying Gruden 10 million a year.
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I think Olsen is done, age 35 with a serious injury history and a lot of miles on him I don't see him having much left in the tank. Would I hate signing him to a one year deal on the cheap? No, he isn't the worst stop gap option to replace Kroft and help mentor Knox/Sweeney. But I think this team could do better at TE.
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From a football perspective Brady makes sense for the Titans, they have a top 10 defense, a beastly ground game, a good O-line and solid receivers (AJ Brown is a good WR, Humphries seems like a white slot receiver that would work great with Brady, and Smith as a TE is decent.) But I don’t see Brady being a game manager as a good deal for the Titans unless Tanny wants too much money and they would rather commit to Brady for one year than have a huge cap number for Tanny the next 2-3 years? The more and more I think about it if Brady is going to leave he is going to the Raiders. Vegas presents a glamour opportunity and a fit football wise. Assuming the Raiders trade Carr for picks and little salary the Raiders would have about 76 million in cap space along with another up to 20-30 million in space depending on roster cuts. The Raiders could give Brady a one year 30 million dollar deal and still have 40-70 million dollars in cap space to play with along with two picks in round 1 and two picks in round 3 and whatever picks you would get in a Carr trade to build the roster around Brady. It just lines up much better as the Titans would almost be improbably lucky to retain Conklin, Henry and add Brady let alone have any space to add players.
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LAMP Post: XFL Article
billsfan89 replied to The Real Buffalo Joe's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The cheerleaders and the gimmicks (along with the general marketing of the league) contributed to a bad image that turned off the general public from the product. As they righted the rules of the game as the season went on the league had already had a toxic image that turned off anyone that would have been willing to give it a second chance. But I do agree that the quality of the football was the major factor of what held the league back. -
McD's focus on the roster was to gut the roster and build it and the culture of the team from the ground up. The 2017 team was a fairly mid-level offense with some of its best players often injured (Glenn, Clay and Watkins) and a lot of other key players on the older and likely to be declining side (Shady and InCog.) The QB was a decent QB but one who had limitations and had most likely reached his ceiling. I think a tear down was completely justified. And it took 2 years to trade away players or let their contracts get into a place where they could be cut. I do agree that in 2018 they could have handled the QB situation much better as I think the plan was to never have Josh start on that depleted offense for a large chunk of that season but they bungled the whole Peterman thing big time. But by 2019 they spent almost all of their cap space and 3 out of their first 4 draft choices on the offensive end. Yes the WR position was left a little lacking but they did bring in two quality professional WR's and there was only so much they could do in one off-season. I think that once McBeane had the cap space to build around the QB they really started to invest in the offense in a real way. They essentially rebuild and O-line, backfield and upgraded the WR position significantly in one off-season, when all they had were 2 starters from 2018.
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Who Is Your Least Favorite Bill of All Time ... and Why?
billsfan89 replied to Gugny's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
He was just chronically overpaid for some reason. He was a decent player, ranged from solid rotational DE to a JAG but never outright bad. But he was paid like a starting DE. Never got paid as an elite player but always was getting paid between 5-8 million for a period of 5-6 years for some reason. -
Who Is Your Least Favorite Bill of All Time ... and Why?
billsfan89 replied to Gugny's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
That's on the Bills management for not seeing through him and taking Orakpo. Maybin tried hard when he was here (Or at least that's how I remember it), he just wasn't a good enough athlete to make it work in the NFL. I don't hate players that try hard but just end up sucking. You give your best effort and act like a professional is all I ask from anyone on the Bills. It is lazy players that I hate as a fan. I think Mike Williams strikes me as a player who will always piss me off. -
LAMP Post: XFL Article
billsfan89 replied to The Real Buffalo Joe's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I think the XFL could be successful as it seems like they have actually thought out the rules more. The rules seem to be developed by football people and not marketing people like the first time around. The game seems to be more focused on being a spring football league as opposed to a XTREME League where they play real football. I think their general approach seems to be much better than the 2001 approach. -
Given that Sammy is still young I think he could develop into a DeSean Jackson type burner which is a solid mid-level WR1. But the Bills drafted him to be a complete game changing WR one of the best at his position. He just never lived up to that billing and he might not even get to that D Jax level he flashes the potential to be.
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Although I think Sammy did have his issues that were on him I could understand what he is saying IF (and this is unknown) McD had assured Sammy that he was a big part of their future and that they want him there long term (which considering his age at the time and the fact that he was a blue chip player inherited by McD is possible) and then they turn around and trade him would scar a players trust in coaches. Sammy had probably by 2017 never had an issue staying on a team or believing a coach when they said they wanted him. I would assume he was heavily recruited out of high school and was a star in college, he was then drafted by Buffalo high up and survived a coaching change from Marrone to Rex. Then suddenly a new coach trades you in pre-season (possibly after being reassured you are part of the teams plans) and you are in a position as a player you never have been in. I don't think that is an unreasonable emotion for a player to have. And I don't blame McD for pulling that type of move, for one he could have actually felt that Sammy was a part of the team's future when he got there until realizing he had attitude issues or he just wanted to preserve his trade value by not announcing he was trading Sammy. It just ended up being a bitter situation for both parties that needed to end when it did. Sammy seems to have matured a bit the past year or so and he is doing well. The Bills got a pick used to trade up for Josh and a good season out of a corner for him.
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PFF's Big Board (I know I know, but hear me out)
billsfan89 replied to DCOrange's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Depending on what this team does in free agencyI can honestly see this team going with a WR in 2 out of the first 3 picks, either going for value in round 1 with an Edge or Corner and then double dipping into WR pool in round 2 and 3 or going with a WR round 1 and going back and getting some depth in round 3. Beasley is older and Brown is only signed for 2 more years and has a bit of an injury history. I can’t see them going WR in both rounds 1 and 2 but I think they could easily go 2 out of 3 in another fashion. WR is not only an immediate need but the position is older and lacks depth (not too impressed with Foster, jury still out on Duke and Mac is more of a gadget WR) so I can see them pushing the talent at WR up a notch and getting younger quickly. -
Ty is older but he only has 66 games played and 17 starts in the NFL. He didn’t start his pro career until 24 years old and even then he played 3 years in arena football and several years as a backup. So the mileage on him isn’t as bad as a typical 34 year old he even came back from his injury this year to play so I would understand them feeling comfortable with Ty as a plan B in case Ford struggles. I agree that they should resign Spain but then I think a lot of fans are worried that if they resign Spain that means they likely are sticking with the Ty/Ford combo at RT (as it would be unlikely they would want Ford and Ty on the bench.) Personally I trust this regimes ability to assess the talent on the roster and if they feel good with the Ty/Ford combo then I think that’s the best move. I don’t think they are going with a RT in round 2 unless they let Spain walk (Then I see them kicking Ford inside and drafting a tackle up high) but I think the more prudent move would be to resign Spain and stick with the Ford/Ty combo. Now if they resigned Spain and drafted a RT in round 2 I wouldn’t hate it as I am almost always in support of improving the O-line and it would make the Bills O-line by far the deepest in the league. But in a league with limited draft resources and cap space I think the regime resigning Spain would be a sign that they are comfortable with what they have and would more likely add a mid round pick and add depth as opposed to adding a starting piece.
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Taysom Hill is a RFA would you have any interest??
billsfan89 replied to Sherlock Holmes's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
He is a nice gadget player but I don't see Hill being someone worth sinking a draft pick and 3-4 million into. He works so well with the Saints but I think his impact with Buffalo would be limited. -
CTE doctor turned salesman: the "selling" of CTE
billsfan89 replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Sure, this study kind of goes over it. Compared to Western Europe, Japan and Canada the US produces about 36% of all new drugs put out on the market. Which sounds like a huge win for the private sector but keep in mind the US's population is 5 times greater than the UK and the UK produces about 10% of new drugs. And a large chunk of the US's new drugs are developed by the NIH which is a public enterprise. There are many nations that produce a lot of new drugs at or near the rate of the US. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2866602/ Pharmaceutical innovation is an international enterprise. Higher prescription drug spending in the United States does not disproportionately privilege domestic innovation. Conversely, many countries with national health systems and drug pricing regulation were significant contributors to pharmaceutical innovation. -
I wonder if they are fine with the Ford/Ty combo at RT and will resign Spain and just keep the o-line together (while maybe adding a depth player or two.) I know fans weren't too thrilled with Ford's play and the general consensus is that Ty was decent but an upgrade is desirable. However I think that Ford played better down the stretch after Ty got hurt although he was still a bit up and down. I wonder where they go with the RT and LG position. Dawkins at LT is a lock, Mitch at Center is a lock and Feliciano at RG is a lock but the LG and RT positions are definitely up in the air. They could resign Spain or let Spain walk (save cap space) and kick Cody in at LG and then draft or sign an RT to compete with Ty at RT. Or they could resign Spain and keep things together? I think given the track record of McBeane's drafting they are likely to stick with Ford/Ty at RT and resign Spain. As a fan I am OK with either option. I think the O-line last year was good not great but good and I think Ford could improve enough to help the O-line get better along with the O-line having a year together which will result in better chemistry. But I am never against any attempt to add more to the O-line.
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CTE doctor turned salesman: the "selling" of CTE
billsfan89 replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
The rate of innovation from the National Institute of health (the US tax payer funded drug research program) is greater than the US private sector. Even France and other nations with socialized medical research innovate at rates at or above the US private sector -
Pro Bowl Player Poll--Worst City to Travel To
billsfan89 replied to Lurker's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Newark has some decent spots mostly in the Iron bound that are gentrified (I enjoy seeing a hockey game there). Everywhere has ***** areas and places that aren't safe so I dont know many cities or states that lack areas you could "do without". I lived in Northern NJ up until late 2018 and while I couldn't stand the harsh winters I always enjoyed the area. But yes the pompous nature of a lot of people in NYC can be infuriating. As though you couldn't really possibly enjoy living in a different area. -
Chris Brown article on Bills Draft Needs
billsfan89 replied to Hapless Bills Fan's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
According to Sportrac the players you want would cost about Cooper 19.7 million Yannick 17.1 million Conklin 15 million Hooper 10 million That's about 62 million in cap space for 4 players and that's on the middle of the road for them as I suspect that would be closer to 70 million to get them and that pretty much takes you out of the running to resign your own free agents. Yes the Bills do have the cap space to make it work but I just think you are setting yourself up for disappointment to think Beane would sign 4 top free agents like that. One big splash is a good chance, two possible but unlikely, three or four almost impossible. McBeane has shown to like depth and salary flexibility. These big names tie up huge signing bonuses which would hurt this team's ability to resign players long term. -
Bojo and Haush should be given camp competition to earn their spots. Both had very uneven and inconsistent seasons last year and they should have to earn their spots in camp. Ferguson seems OK, Roberts is a quality return man and I think DiMarco (ST ace supposedly) all will have a niche on the roster on special teams.