billsfan89

I don't have anything "against" kickers but I don't like having too much of a game coming down to a kicker. I get that not matter what there are going to be games where kickers are the difference between winning and losing. But I would prefer to have a niche position like kicker not decide the game as much as possible.

Loving the XFL rules (although I think they will have to adjust one or two) in general. I think overall it is excellent to see a league experimenting with rules that speed up the game and minimize the kicker.

Hunt wouldn't be a bad addition, but I don't think he fits with what the Bills need out of a running back behind Singletary. Singletary in my mind is a Lev Bell (although not as talented and a bit smaller) type lead back who can be used in both passing situations and early down situations. What the Bills need is a big time bruiser back who can work over the short yardage situations and take some early down work off of Singletary. Hunt in my mind is more of a receiving back who can do some early down work (like Singletary) but certainly isn't a bruiser or short yardage back. Now since Hunt is talented I wouldn't mind adding him at the right price. But overall I just don't see him being the kind of player the Bills want and that's just talking about on the field fit. Factoring in the off-field issues I would say this team definitely stays away.

I do think Murphy is likely to be cut although not a lock. Given the front offices love of depth along the O-line I expect them to restructure Long's deal and keep him (He is a solid versatile backup.) But it is possible they cut Long and spend that money elsewhere. As far as your surprise cuts. Andre Roberts- No way he is cut 0% chance, he makes peanuts and brings good production for his position. No idea why he is on this list. Star- I also see a very low probability he gets cut. Yes his cap number is huge but the savings are minimal. Star also turned it on late last season (After a rough mid-part of the year and a so/so start) and showed that he can anchor a run defense. Haush- I think it is a good chance he stays but a real possibility he is cut. I think his roster status is fairly safe but if he struggles in camp and pre-season and a kicker in competition with him does well I could see the team cutting him loose. Kroft- I think this should be in the expected cuts category. I think it is a great than 80% chance he gets cut. DiMarco- As a fullback he is massively overpaid for a niche position. But he is supposedly a special teams ace and given that his contract is fairly low I think they keep him although there is a slight chance they cut him. Lee Smith- They love having Smith in the locker room with Knox and Sweeny. Yes his position is very niche (and he isn’t that great at it) but I think this is another example of a veteran player McBeane loves and will show some weird loyalty to. Yeldon- 50/50 on this one, he is a decent third string RB who isn’t on a massive contract. But he isn’t a big special teams guy. Depending on what other competition they have at that position for him and how well he does in camp will determine if he makes the roster. Out of this list I would only say that Kroft is one I for sure expect to get cut. I think Long will if he refuses to restructure his deal while Yeldon and Haush could be victims of camp battles but that is going to be determined in the process of training camp. I would also say Murphy is likely to be cut but not a lock. The rest I don’t see getting cut.

I wouldn't mind a one year deal in the 7-8 million range. Draft a rookie in round 1 or 2 behind him and have Perriman there as a stop gap to ease a rookie in. Then after a year let Perriman go and get paid long term elsewhere. But I think Perriman is going to try and get paid long term which may or may not happen.

Pass, you would see 2-4 teams like the Bengals become intentional bottom feeders renting cap space for cheap draft picks and selling it off for money. I think that there could be some trades like the Oswiler trade where the Browns absorbed a bad contract and got a 2nd round pick in exchange for a 4th rounder.

Eli Manning had two of the All-Time best playoff runs in NFL history. In 2007 he beat Tampa Bay away (Modest upset) and then upset Tony Romo and TO's Cowboys away, beat Brett Farve's last ride Packers teams in Lambo, and then upset a 18-0 Pats team. All with clutch plays in each of those games to seal a victory. In 2011 Eli Beat Matt Ryan at home in round 1 (probably the only game in this 8 game stretch they were favored and the only one they were at home for), then beat a 15-1 Packers team that was the defending champs led by Aaron Rodgers with a stacked team in his prime, then went on the road to a very tough 49ers team led by Harbaugh's break out team, and then beat one of the stronger Pats teams who sported a great O-line, Gronk and Hernandez in a unique two tight end set along with Wes Welker at his best and Dion Branch who came back to have a decent season. Overall that's two of the best playoff runs I have ever seen a QB put together to go 8-0. I also think that Eli had some good years in the regular season and from 2005-2012 never had a losing season. Eli's career record from 2005 (his second season) to 2016 had a 107-85 record (a 56% winning percentage.) I think overall while his career in the regular season is very Drew Bledsoe like you take a good but not great regular season resume and combine it with 2 spectacular all time great playoff runs I think you get a HOF player.

For the first time in my Bills fandom I fully trust the front office, they have made many more good moves than bad ones overall and their results have been very solid and they have an excellent situation going forward if Josh can develop even more modestly. I think he has the right idea in wanting to not dramatically overpay for Phillips, Lawson and Spain. But I am curious to see if Beane goes "Big Game Hunting" in free agency and goes after a top elite talent like Yannick or Clowney or if he tries to reproduce last off-season where he goes maybe after one 10 million plus aav free agent (around what Mitch got) and then spreads around a few mid-level contracts to fill the remaining gaps. I think personally the team is better off adjusting the approach to retain the team's own free agents and add 1 elite talent and maybe one mid-level contract, and then spending the rest of the money on depth/role players in a manner that still allows the team to roll over 30-40 million in cap space for upcoming extensions.

I think Tampa franchises him, takes a shot to see if he can play in Bruce's system (a complex system that apparently takes a full season to get into.) Indy is an interesting team as with some punch in the skill positions they could be a dangerous team as their O-line is solid, Mack is a decent back, and their defense is solid. However they have a ton of cap space even if they cut Brisett and take the 12.5 million in dead money. So they could sign almost any QB on the market and have plenty of money to add a receiver or two.

Last off-season the offense in particular needed a lot of starters. They had one quality O-line player, a young QB and not much else on offense. They needed more than 2-3 big pieces. And the strategy of filling the biggest need with Mitch and then patching in mid to lower level signings around Josh worked (Along with drafting round 2-3 with offensive players.) But this off-season the team has a much better talent level and the pieces that are missing are higher end pieces. They need those last 2-3 big players to push the team over the top. I think in free agency they can at least find that 1 front line starter to fill a need and then address depth/role players with the rest of their space (after they retain 2-3 of the teams own free agents.) That's fine if your argument is that Clowney isn't the type of player that would make the impact a big contract would justify. I kind of feel the same way about giving him a big contract, I would rather have Yannick because I think he is the better player and a bit younger. But I do think this team needs a significant upgrade at the Edge position, Shaq and Hughes are not frontline elite pass rushers and Murphy is a JAG or slightly above replacement level and Johnson is a longer term project.

Last off-season a lot of people really liked the free agency moves. Mitch was the best center on the market, Brown and Beasley were quality competent receivers brought in at a good price, Ty was considered a sleeper signing and Spain was considered a steal at his cost. Overall I loved what they did even if I did hate the Kroft signing. I would be ecstatic if they did another smart off-season with 1 upper level signing (similar to Mitch 10 million aav or more) then 2-3 mid-level signings (7-9 million aav.) I think most here would be happy. I more advocate signing Yannick and maybe another mid-level starter contract type player because I think the pieces this team is missing is more of an elite level game changers at WR and Edge. Finding an elite player at one of those positions in free agency is more than likely going to cost big money. I think it is still prudent to go after a big fish, resign your own talent and maybe make a few more minor signings. But I would be more than fine if they repeated last off-season.

Seattle gave up a 3rd round pick and mostly filler for Clowney, who if they let him walk and sign with another team will get a comp 3rd round pick back in 2021. So the cost for Clowney for Seattle is more in line with a rental player. They might resign him but I wouldn't be shocked if they let him test the market and take the comp pick. Personally I don't want to sign Clowney. I would rather target Yannick out of Jacksonville who is a bit younger and I feel like would fit better with the culture and defense. The cost cap wise would be the same but I think he is the one piece this team could add at significant expense that would fit the team's timeline and not cap them out going forward. I think that the defensive line needs an elite pass rusher. I think even if you brought back Lawson (who I would like to bring back and still sign Yannick) the pass rush is not consistent enough to be a factor against better O-lines with regularity. I think they need to bring back Lawson to keep the strength in numbers thing the D-line has and bring in a prime edge rusher like Yannick to take the defense over the top. I think the front office can't be too consumed with the future when considering what to do in free agency. If they cut Murphy and Kroft they have 101 million in cap space roughly speaking. They have enough money to resign 2-3 of their primary free agents (Spain, Phillips and Lawson) and make a move to get a big free agent like Yannick (And still have some space to add another mid-level contract and some depth pieces) and still roll over 20-30 million to help ease the burden on extensions that might hit in 2021. The window to win in the NFL is not always there long term. The Bills have a real chance to win in 2020 and they have to consider making a big move and spending on the team now. You don't have to be irresponsible but you can't be too cautious.

The roll over has been a disaster for players because it encourages owners (particularly cheap owners like the Bengals owner) have constantly rolled over cap space and then let the roll over expire after several seasons. I think having roll over discourages teams to spend to the cap as it can always roll over for a long time and then quietly expire if you don't want to spend it. I am not against roll over cap space but I think the way it is currently constructed is very much a negative for the players.

True 4 phase running backs (Ability to catch passes, pass block, run between the tackles and run outside in space) are true elite weapons that add a dynamic to any offense. There aren't too many backs that can be true 3 down backs effective in all 4 phases of being a RB. But the Drop-off between a good running back and an average one isn't that big. So RB is very much a feast or famine type position. Elite players are worth every penny whereas good players don't provide the value needed over average players.

So much can change in the draft process. Right now it is just projections based off of team needs and how the college season played out.

I probably would rank the 2019 special teams as average, so moderately above average isn't that far off. Roberts is a quality sure handed returner. He didn't have many game breaking returns but he had a lot of solid punt returns and having a returner who doesn't turn the ball over has value. In my opinion he is a top 10 returner in the league more than set there. The coverage units had a mostly solid season, I don't recall too many big returns other than the Miami game, the only other major mistake was the blocked punt against the Pats who were the best unit in the league. Punting Bojo was poor, not tragic as he ended the season on a decent run and Haush while losing his 50+ range was very very accurate in the sub 50 range. If I had to grade the special teams I would grade the following units. Returner- A- Coverage Units- B+ Punting- D+ Field Goal Kicking- C Overall Grade - B-

Haush is only about to be 35, odd that he started to lose his leg this year. Even in 2018 he still hit a respectable 4-7 from 50+ (Although his accuracy in the 40-49 range was a bit of an issue at 70%.) Then in 2019 he tightened up the 40-49 yard field goals hitting 90% on those (although he did have one miss in the 30-39 yard range but hey things happen I can take 7-8 in that range as long as it isn't a clutch kick) but then went 1-5 from 50+. I get that high accuracy on 50+ is hard to expect but you need at a minimum a kicker to be at least able to 50% on those while being automatic 90%+ on kicks sub 50. Not having even a 50/50 chance at a kick in the 50+ range is not acceptable. It takes the chance at significant points off the board and limits you in late game situations. I think they have to consider taking a shot at a kicker in round 6 or 7 or going into targeting one highly as an UDFA to bring into camp with Haush. I think it is possible Haush can find his leg and get to being respectable from 50+ but they need to have an option there.

In the NFL you need 2 consistent high end quality receiving options plus 2-3 supplemental receiving options. The Bills only had 1 consistent high end receiving option in Brown and probably only 1-2 supplemental receiving options in Beasley and possibly Singletary out of the backfield once they got him going. That is simply not enough to put together a good quality NFL offense. They were counting on Kroft to be a complementary option for Allen to spread the ball around to and I think they had hoped that Jones or Foster would at worst be a decent complementary option to help ease things. They knew beyond Beasley and Brown they lacked a lot of options but were hoping that Kroft and others would help pick up the slack. Kroft got hurt and Foster/Jones never got it going, Mackenzie did a little here and there but was mostly a gadget player. The Bills need to desperately find a WR that can be a consistent factor in the passing game and they need to find another complementary option at tight end to help add diversification to the core (I like Knox but he needs another year to cook.) The Bills could only do so much in one off-season to fix the offense. They repaired the O-line heavily (with depth to boot) and added some weapons in the passing game and got a good young RB. But overall they need to get the proper weapons around Allen for 2020.

Considering that to be a top 10 player at his position by aav he would have to get a deal at around 10.5 to 11.5 million. That would be too much for my blood. I think Phillips is a very good interior pass rusher, his sack numbers were a bit circumstantial he still made a lot of big plays and got pressure up the middle often. If I had to peg his fair value I would say it would be at about 7.5 million aav that is easy to get out of after 2021. But I think adjusting for the free agency overpay I think his value appropriate to the team is at about 8.5ish million that is easy to get out after 2021. I think once you start to get above 9 million aav I am out. I think 9 million aav is a bit outside of what you want to pay but you would consider it.

The NFL varies so much year to year that it is hard to tell just what the landscape will be. Regardless of what the rest of the division does and the rest of the AFC does it is going to the Bills success is always going to come down to just how much can Josh progress. 2019 was a significant step forward but he wasn't close to being a top 10 QB. Hopefully getting Josh a couple of extra weapons helps.

I think considering the premium safeties have in the modern NFL I think they pay Poyer. I also think it won't take crazy or unreasonable money to resign him. I think a deal between 7-8 million AAV suits him and makes him affordable.

I think they can find a power RB in round 3-5 or in the lower to mid-level free agency range. This is a need for this team to replace Gore (who outside of a handful of games early wasn't the most effective back) with a similar style of player. But I don't think the team needs to go crazy and spend a pick in round 1 or 2 or go after Henry or another big level player via trade or free agency. I think they can fill the need effectively without major resources.

The Bengals moved him... to a bigger house.

One bad muff can cost you a game, so having a sure handed player on punts is worth the roster spot esp if he brings a solid kickoff return (3 yards ain't bad) and I would assume above average to top 10 punt yardage (I think he had a ton of quality 6-8 yard returns with several 10+ yard returns.) The cap number is minimal and the contribution of not generating a turnover on special teams and getting positive return numbers more than justifies the roster spot.

I would say fines are most likely. Unless there are many more examples of skirting rules.