Hate to say it, but Bills @ Ravens in the Wild Card seems like the most likely scenario right now

[No_Matter_What]

I know things can change a lot between now and the end of the regular season, but at the moment things are shaping up that way, in my opinion.

 

I think it’s safe to say that whoever wins the NFC North will be the 4-seed. My money is on the Ravens, especially now that Rodgers has hurt his wrist. I still think the Steelers will split with them, but the Ravens will probably end up 10–7, and the Steelers will have a hard time matching that. At the same time, it’s hard to imagine a 10–7 (or even 11–6) Ravens team having a better record than any other division winner.

 

So whoever loses the division race in the AFC is most likely going to end up playing at Baltimore.

 

The NYT playoff calculator says the Pats* have an 86% chance and we have 14%. I’d say that’s pretty accurate. Even if we beat them at their place after their bye (which I think we have a solid chance to do), we’d still only be at 29%. We need them to drop one more game than us. So if we win out (which is very hard to do), we need them to lose to the Ravens. If we lose one more, then we need them to lose to the Ravens plus another game. They have the Giants and Dolphins at home, and the Bengals, Ravens, and Jets on the road.

 

If I had to guess, we beat them, lose one more game, they lose to the Ravens, and it all comes down to their last game at the Dolphins. The Fish might pull an upset, but I wouldn’t count on it.

 

There are other possibilities — we could lose the division and end up as the 6-seed or so — but I don’t think we’ll finish worse than 12–5.

 

To sum it up, the most likely scenario right now is Bills @ Ravens.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Wouldn’t the Bills need the Pats to lose a division game and to the Bills for the Bills to take the division? That is if the Bills could win out. Trying to remember tie breakers and I think division record is one of the early ones. 

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

I know things can change a lot between now and the end of the regular season, but at the moment things are shaping up that way, in my opinion.

 

I think it’s safe to say that whoever wins the NFC North will be the 4-seed. My money is on the Ravens, especially now that Rodgers has hurt his wrist. I still think the Steelers will split with them, but the Ravens will probably end up 10–7, and the Steelers will have a hard time matching that. At the same time, it’s hard to imagine a 10–7 (or even 11–6) Ravens team having a better record than any other division winner.

 

So whoever loses the division race in the AFC is most likely going to end up playing at Baltimore.

 

The NYT playoff calculator says the Pats* have an 86% chance and we have 14%. I’d say that’s pretty accurate. Even if we beat them at their place after their bye (which I think we have a solid chance to do), we’d still only be at 29%. We need them to drop one more game than us. So if we win out (which is very hard to do), we need them to lose to the Ravens. If we lose one more, then we need them to lose to the Ravens plus another game. They have the Giants and Dolphins at home, and the Bengals, Ravens, and Jets on the road.

 

If I had to guess, we beat them, lose one more game, they lose to the Ravens, and it all comes down to their last game at the Dolphins. The Fish might pull an upset, but I wouldn’t count on it.

 

There are other possibilities — we could lose the division and end up as the 6-seed or so — but I don’t think we’ll finish worse than 12–5.

 

To sum it up, the most likely scenario right now is Bills @ Ravens.

Oh no!

 

Not the team/QB that constantly chokes in the playoffs and gift wraps multiple turnovers! Anything but that!

[Gregg]

Just now, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Wouldn’t the Bills need the Pats to lose a division game and to the Bills for the Bills to take the division? That is if the Bills could win out. Trying to remember tie breakers and I think division record is one of the early ones. 

 

The Pats have 2 losses; the Bills have 3. They need the Pats to lose another game (division or not) and then beat them in the rematch and that would put the Bills in the driver's seat for the AFCE.

[No_Matter_What]

2 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Wouldn’t the Bills need the Pats to lose a division game and to the Bills for the Bills to take the division? That is if the Bills could win out. Trying to remember tie breakers and I think division record is one of the early ones. 

These are the first five tiebreakers:

 

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5. Strength of victory in all games.

 

Yes divisional games are very important.

 

But if we win out, we are 14-3. In such case if they lose ANY other game they are 13-4 so tiebreakers won't matter. 

[TheWei44]

It might be the most likely scenario and also be something like a 15-20% probability.  I could definitely see it happening.  So much ball left to play though and if Bills don't win division, sixth seed is very possible too.

[BuffaloBillyG]

With so much football left to be played there really isn't a strong indication who will play who this far out. Buffalo can still get to the 1 seed or they can still miss the playoffs altogether. Likewise with all the other teams. 

 

For giggles I've run the same simulator. I come up with us playing Denver quite a bit. I come up a few times playing Jacksonville, Indy and Pittsburgh as well. 

 

Point being, this far out anything can and likely will happen. Teams that should win games will lose. Injuries will happen. 

 

Don't stress on the Ravens just yet. Plenty of time to do that once the seeding is more clear. 

[No_Matter_What]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Oh no!

 

Not the team/QB that constantly chokes in the playoffs and gift wraps multiple turnovers! Anything but that!

I didn't say it means we are doomed if that happens.

 

Just stating my opinion how it looks like.

 

We can win there and I'd believe Bills, but I think we can agree that it is hard to imagine tougher scenario for the Bills than to start WC at Ravens.

[Buffalo03]

Win out and get the 1 seed. Simple as that. I expect the Broncos to drop at least 2 games. I honestly don't know how they keep winning. And the Colts and Patriots can easily drop one other game

[thenorthremembers]

Maybe you're right.   But the reality is literally anything can happen in the next seven weeks of football.    No reason to worry about at this point. 

[Process]

Bills need to win out to win the division (and Patriots need to lose to Baltimore)

 

If they don't, I agree, we are going to Baltimore in the WC

[bills6969]

Ravens might win out, their remaining schedule is easy. They are not locked into the 4 seed

[Buffalo03]

20 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Wouldn’t the Bills need the Pats to lose a division game and to the Bills for the Bills to take the division? That is if the Bills could win out. Trying to remember tie breakers and I think division record is one of the early ones. 

We have to basically win out and hope the Patriots drop one more. They do have Baltimore in Baltimore the week after they play us so, if we do beat them and they were to lose another game, that would be the most likely one in my opinion 

[NI Bills Fan]

First step... win on Thursday night.  There's a long way to go yet.

 

 

[Bruffalo]

Let's just try and enjoy the season as it unfolds.

 

I know that's been particularly hard this year given the expectations but getting all wrapped up in the "what ifs" just isn't worth the mental anguish (to me anyways). 

 

This team can beat anybody. They can also probably lose to anybody. It's going to be a rollercoaster. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Might be in a position to throw a game week 18 and drop in seeding if that’s the route it looks like we’re headed…I doubt we’re avoiding Baltimore altogether anyway though assuming we go on some kind of run which may not even happen in the first place 😂. So seeing them in the first round is more psychological fan stuff than anything 

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[SCBills]

30 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Wouldn’t the Bills need the Pats to lose a division game and to the Bills for the Bills to take the division? That is if the Bills could win out. Trying to remember tie breakers and I think division record is one of the early ones. 

Bills win out and the Pats just have to lose any other game outside of us beating them. 
 

Thats likely the path because the Pats, so far, don’t look like a team making the mistakes that allow them to lose to inferior teams. 
 

Best bet is back to back L’s to Bills and Ravens. 
 

In terms of the 4 seed, if we’re the 5, yup… looks most likely to be the AFCN, but if the Ravens get hot against an easy schedule, look at the Colts schedule, they could easily fall apart and the AFCS winner could also be the 4.  
 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by SCBills

[corta765]

I hate predicting this stuff this far out especially when the Ravens don't even have control of their own division. Three weeks ago everyone had the Chiefs winning the AFC West and now they are lucky if they can be a wildcard. 

There are wayyyy too many games and things left to sort out. Pittsburgh traditionally has split with Baltimore and done well against Lamar and people penciling both games in as a win are jumping wayyyy too far ahead. I do agree Baltimore has a favorable look at the division... they also do play PIT twice, NE, & at GB. If they go 2-2 which is pretty realistic given the caliber of opponent they are at 7-7 and have to win out both CIN games & NYJ (doubt they lose that). Again I think things are set favorably for the Ravens BUT football is a weird weird weird sport and losses happen out of the blue that no one sees coming that shake everything.

[dorquemada]

I'd much rather play Baltimore than Denver.  

[YoloinOhio]

Lamar is injured and looks horrible