Game week thread - Bills at Falcons MNF

[billsfan_34]

On 10/7/2025 at 11:12 AM, Johnnycage46 said:

So, looking at ESPN stats through week 5, Atlanta's defensive rankings:

 

#1 in yards per game at 244/game.

#1 in pass yards per game at 135/game.

#16 in rush yards per game at 109/game.

#15 scoring defense at 21.5 pts/game.

#6 third down defense at 34.1%

 

Going to be a tough game. They are coming off of their bye, have a load of skill position talent on offense and have a good defense. I hope the loss to NE woke up the Bills, if not, we're looking at a 2 game slide heading into the bye.

 

 

Meanwhile our D is a heaping pile of dung. It’s epically bad.

[Scott7975]

9 hours ago, gobills404 said:

I’m getting giddy thinking about once Ed and Hoecht are back

 

The Bills have been very good at getting pressure. They just have difficulty finishing it off and getting it home. They are also bad at losing edge contain.

[EssexBill]

9 hours ago, gobills404 said:

I’m getting giddy thinking about once Ed and Hoecht are back

Let’s hope Ed, Hoecht and Larry can actually tackle and don’t have butter fingers like the rest of the D, because all the pressure in the world doesn’t mean anything when they completely miss the tackles what seems like about 90% of the time 

Edited 9 hours ago by EssexBill

[gobills404]

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The Bills have been very good at getting pressure. They just have difficulty finishing it off and getting it home. They are also bad at losing edge contain.

I could be wrong but I bet it has something do with soft coverage as well. Giving opposing pass catchers big cushions allows QBs to get the ball out quickly on short passes. Pass rush has less time to get home.

[Scott7975]

Just now, gobills404 said:

I could be wrong but I bet it has something do with soft coverage as well. Giving opposing pass catchers big cushions allows QBs to get the ball out quickly on short passes. Pass rush has less time to get home.

 

I am sure that plays a part.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

23 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The Bills have been very good at getting pressure. They just have difficulty finishing it off and getting it home. They are also bad at losing edge contain.

It's a team of Ed olivers now

[Sojourner]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The Bills have been very good at getting pressure. They just have difficulty finishing it off and getting it home. They are also bad at losing edge contain.

Yup. I was encouraged by the pressure they applied against the Pats. Should have correlated to more stops on the backend. 

[SoMAn]

On 10/7/2025 at 9:52 AM, Walking Tall said:

Bills wearing the white, standing buffalo throwbacks.

 

Atlanta had a bye. Outside of the Carolina stinker, they’ve played well.

 

I think the Bills drop another game here.

It's entirely possible. Hopefully, the Bills are motivated after the Sunday night Cold Front debacle and pull out a win.

After what looked like a runaway division title for the Bills after 4 games, it's not beyond the realm of possibilities that the Pats (with a win over the Saints) could be on top of the division after 6 weeks. 😗

[finn]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The Bills have been very good at getting pressure. They just have difficulty finishing it off and getting it home. They are also bad at losing edge contain.

Beane has invested a lot in quick pressure after seeing from their two Super Bowl defeats that this is the way to beat Mahomes. Oliver, Hoecht, Ogunjobi, Walker, Sanders, Bosa... they're all penetrators, not edge setters or run stuffers. But he may have put spent too many resources there, at the expense of players who can tackle, cover, and stop the run. If you're good at only one thing and suck at everything else, other teams catch on fast. Not to put it all on Beane. Maybe he was expecting McDermott and his defensive staff would do a better job than they have. Anyway, plenty of blame to go around. The defense still has time to turn it around, as we keep telling each other. 

[zow2]

Oh no,  Orlovsky on ESPN says the Bills are on “upset alert” this Monday.  Beware.

[CircleTheWagons99]

Penix will look like a natural HOFer come monday night.....

[boyst]

20 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Oh no,  Orlovsky on ESPN says the Bills are on “upset alert” this Monday.  Beware.

i think it's an incredibly high probability that we lose compared to other games this season.

 

i think we are at risk of losing this game more than the Eagles game, for example. We do not match up as well as the Falcons who can power run it, who have a stingy defense, who are at home on a Monday night and have motivation to upset the Bills.

 

The Eagles and Chiefs are capable of sleepwalking the regular season and know it. the eagles do not interest me with their low risk plays and passive play calling to consume the clock and mitigate Hurts passing. by that time we may even be firing on some bigger play potential. we matchup well against the Eagles because we are similar in many ways.  the chiefs are the only contender i have for us later in the season but we know that this team will be able to rise to the occasion - as long as they win - i do not think there is much to fear.

 

the falcons will have their ears pinned back on defense, bijan is going to bring the truck against our defense and pennix will struggle against the McD defense which is even too complicated for even our own team. Pennix could be delivery fatal runs and schoolyard plays.

[fergie's ire]

13 hours ago, jkeerie said:

I'm not worried about our D line.  I think this really demonstrates how poor our secondary is.  I don't think the plan was for Tre to man the position.  But injuries to Hairston and now Strong have hamstrung the Bills.  I'd like to see them work Hancock into the secondary.  It functions as a unit...only as strong as its weakest link.  Right now, the weak links are Tre and Rapp.  If they can eliminate one of those, that would certainly help.

Agreed.  Part of the problem might also be schematic.  Bills have been getting quick pressure, but if receivers aren't facing tight coverage, that doesn't help.  The QB can always dump it quickly to an open receiver.  If you want to have an aggressive defense, the corners need to be aggressive and play the receivers tight from the line.  It might mean getting beat deep occasionally, but if it also leeds to turnovers and short possessions, you can live with that.  Of course, it would help to have at least one corner with speed which is why Hairston is so important, and his injury is why you probably want at least one more.

[SoCal Deek]

7 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

Agreed.  Part of the problem might also be schematic.  Bills have been getting quick pressure, but if receivers aren't facing tight coverage, that doesn't help.  The QB can always dump it quickly to an open receiver.  If you want to have an aggressive defense, the corners need to be aggressive and play the receivers tight from the line.  It might mean getting beat deep occasionally, but if it also leeds to turnovers and short possessions, you can live with that.  Of course, it would help to have at least one corner with speed which is why Hairston is so important, and his injury is why you probably want at least one more.

So in summary, the Bills defense is a schematic mess. The three levels of the defense are utterly disconnected from each other in what they’re trying to do. And I’d even toss in the fourth level if you consider that our two safeties are playing so far back they’re close to being in the first row of the end zone. (Maybe they’ll catch a football back there and run up the stands on their way out of the stadium.) 

Edited 4 hours ago by SoCal Deek

[MasterStrategist]

18 minutes ago, boyst said:

i think it's an incredibly high probability that we lose compared to other games this season.

 

i think we are at risk of losing this game more than the Eagles game, for example. We do not match up as well as the Falcons who can power run it, who have a stingy defense, who are at home on a Monday night and have motivation to upset the Bills.

 

The Eagles and Chiefs are capable of sleepwalking the regular season and know it. the eagles do not interest me with their low risk plays and passive play calling to consume the clock and mitigate Hurts passing. by that time we may even be firing on some bigger play potential. we matchup well against the Eagles because we are similar in many ways.  the chiefs are the only contender i have for us later in the season but we know that this team will be able to rise to the occasion - as long as they win - i do not think there is much to fear.

 

the falcons will have their ears pinned back on defense, bijan is going to bring the truck against our defense and pennix will struggle against the McD defense which is even too complicated for even our own team. Pennix could be delivery fatal runs and schoolyard plays.

Going to be a big week to get Ed back, and for our LBs to step up.

 

Bijan is top priority, run game but hes also very dangerous in their pass game and used alot there.  Then shut down Pitts.  I'd lock Benford on London all game.  If Penix beats us going to London, so be it.  Just dont want to see Bijan picking up chunck yardage.

 

Their defense can be ran on.  But I suspect they react with bringing safeties down a lot.  Need to see the field better and our OL can hold up in pass pro.

 

Bills 33 Falcons 27

[JP51]

5 hours ago, gobills404 said:

I could be wrong but I bet it has something do with soft coverage as well. Giving opposing pass catchers big cushions allows QBs to get the ball out quickly on short passes. Pass rush has less time to get home.

I think this is very true, I think you also have to combine it with other teams allowing the initial pressure (no I dont have stats this is just what I am seeing) throwing short down field as our tacking and ability to shed blocks is about as bad as I have ever seen... like get your guy into space, block downfield and you are all set... because our LB and DBs get taken out of the play so easily, pursuit is non existent and if by chance someone sheds a block they are probably going to mis tackle... make 1 guy miss and you are looking at 8 to 15 yards.. 

Edited 3 hours ago by JP51

[Rockinon]

34 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Going to be a big week to get Ed back, and for our LBs to step up.

 

Bijan is top priority, run game but hes also very dangerous in their pass game and used alot there.  Then shut down Pitts.  I'd lock Benford on London all game.  If Penix beats us going to London, so be it.  Just dont want to see Bijan picking up chunck yardage.

 

Their defense can be ran on.  But I suspect they react with bringing safeties down a lot.  Need to see the field better and our OL can hold up in pass pro.

 

Bills 33 Falcons 27

Not a single defense we've played thus far have done that. What makes you think the Falcons will.

[zow2]

I'm not disrespecting the Falcons defense, but i think game scripts has had something to do with their rankings and they've only played 4 games.   Against Minnesota, JJ McCarthy was terrible and looked like he'd never played QB in his life, but that was a good defensive game that skewed their numbers way down.  Carolina had a pick six and another TD or two set up by turnovers.  The Panthers had a huge lead and didn't possess the ball for long drives and didn't need to, skewing the stats.  Atlanta also got to play the Commanders with backup QB Mariota and no McLaurin.  The first game against Tampa was impressive D, but they still lost.

[Brand J]

On 10/8/2025 at 7:16 AM, Andrew Son said:

My concern is that, historically, these "lulls" seem to last for multi-game stretches.

The annual lulls are like clockwork. The Bills have an excellent September, where they look like the best team in football, followed by a dreadful October and early November, and then start playing well leading into the playoffs before an injury depleted defense does them in. Same script year after year. Except this year they haven’t been as stellar in September, squeaking past the lowly Dolphins and Saints (yes, I know both were double digit wins). Maybe that breaks up the Oct/Nov lulls a bit. 

[Johnnycage46]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

Oh no,  Orlovsky on ESPN says the Bills are on “upset alert” this Monday.  Beware.

 

From an odds perspective, sure (the Bills are favored). But honestly, when looking at both teams, the Falcons should win. I'll be more surprised if the Bills win, than if the Falcons do.