2025-26 NFL MVP race

[Process]

Allen is the clear favorite but if I was betting today I like Lamar and Mahomes both more at those odds. 

 

Usually you need to be a top two seed and actually beat good teams to win MVP. But they will bend all of the rules for Lamar. So if he ends up as a WC with good stats I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him win it. Especially with all the talking heads at Disney upset about last year. 

 

What are Goff's odds? He could end up as a top two seed and should put up numbers. 

[LabattBlue]

4 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

They don’t mean anything? lol… (you wanna bet)

 

They mean everything. These are the front runners.

 

Every person that has been the betting favorite at the end of the year or all but one the last 25 years has won the MVP. So I would say it matters more than anything else when trying to figure out who wins it. 

If you want to compare players to see how they are doing post the stats.  Otherwise, just post betting odds and don’t bother trying to figure out who the frontrunners are. 

[warrior9]

7 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

But why isn't the QB who's #1 in QBR, passer rating, TDs, or yards per game the leading MVP candidate.

 

As you know, stats matter.  But so does the eye test, context, hype, personality, and wins.  It's a complicated, subjective evaluation with many considerations, not all of which are fair.   

What are you talking about? 

 

Because Josh has the best collective average of all of the above. You explained why he is in the front by thinking what you were asking is ground breaking and game changing. 

 

Context, hype, wins, stats, and MANY considerations (such as the ones you listed) and he has the best collective avg of all of them in the league. 

Edited September 29 by warrior9

[strive_for_five_guy]

Surprised Jalen Hurts isn’t closer to top of the list.  I get that he has Saquon on his team, but the award typically goes to a QB, the Eagles are the defending SB champs and are undefeated.  Bills/Eagles late in the season may very much decide who wins MVP.  While I’ll be rooting for the Bills or course, 14-1 on Hurts is good value versus 1-1 for Josh.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

39 minutes ago, theAteam said:

Surprised Allen is front-running, he hasn't done anything particularly impressive stat-wise. Cook's been the engine of the offense so far (not that I'm complaining). I'm guessing that Week 1 comeback is still driving those odds.

 

Also where is Daniel Jones? I know he's Daniel Jones but he's been playing very well so far.

I’m not knocking your post, but it’s crazy how high Allen has set the bar for himself. When being on pace for over 40 total TDs is not considered impressive is wild. That’s basically what we’ll get this year which is almost the same as every other. Total TDs in the low 40s with about 1/3 of them on the ground. Basically an MVP year every year. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

5 minutes ago, Process said:

Allen is the clear favorite but if I was betting today I like Lamar and Mahomes both more at those odds. 

 

Usually you need to be a top two seed and actually beat good teams to win MVP. But they will bend all of the rules for Lamar. So if he ends up as a WC with good stats I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him win it. Especially with all the talking heads at Disney upset about last year. 

 

What are Goff's odds? He could end up as a top two seed and should put up numbers. 

 

This is from DraftKings. A little different from OP's odds:

 

Josh Allen: +110

Lamar Jackson: +650

Justin Herbert: +700

Patrick Mahomes: +1000

Jalen Hurts: +1300

Jordan Love: +1600

Baker Mayfield: +1800

Matthew Stafford: +1800

Jayden Daniels: +2500

Jared Goff: +3000

 

Jackson is once again compiling some ridiculous stats, but that 1-3 start is going to be tough to overcome. 

 

Mayfield, Stafford, and Goff all have good value at those odds IMO. It's ridiculous that Daniels is even on the list. He's already missed 2 games with injury, and was terrible in 1 of the 2 games he did play in. 

[Rubes]

9 minutes ago, Process said:

Allen is the clear favorite but if I was betting today I like Lamar and Mahomes both more at those odds. 

 

Usually you need to be a top two seed and actually beat good teams to win MVP. But they will bend all of the rules for Lamar. So if he ends up as a WC with good stats I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him win it. Especially with all the talking heads at Disney upset about last year. 

 

What are Goff's odds? He could end up as a top two seed and should put up numbers. 

 

As much as it pains me to say it, Mahomes is going to put up some gaudy numbers once he has both Worthy and Rice back together. I'd say that would be a good bet at those odds.

 

[thenorthremembers]

I think Stafford is a pretty good play as well.   Towards the tops in TDs and Yards, on a good team. 

[JGMcD2]

14 minutes ago, MJS said:

With KC and Baltimore losing games, it makes sense for Allen to be leading. The MVP usually goes to the QB of the best team, and the Bills are the best team in the league right now, even if his numbers aren't eye popping. But it is really early.

He's on pace for a very typical Josh Allen season. He's just done it for 5 years in a row, so we don't think too much about it. 

 

Projected 2025 stats:

• 70% completion percentage
• 4,097 passing yards
• 30 passing touchdowns
• 4 interceptions
• 675 rushing yards
• 13 rushing touchdowns
   

2024 MVP season:

• 63.6% completion percentage
• 3,731 passing yards
• 28 passing touchdowns
• 6 interceptions
• 531 rushing yards
• 12 rushing touchdowns
   

His career 17-game average:

• 63.5% completion percentage
• 4050 passing yards
• 30 passing touchdowns
• 13 interceptions
• 636 rushing yards
• 10 rushing touchdowns

 

Edited September 29 by JGMcD2

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

He's on pace for a very typical Josh Allen season. He's just done it for 5 years in a row, so we don't think too much about it. 

 

Projected 2025 stats:

• 70% completion percentage
• 4,097 passing yards
• 30 passing touchdowns
• 4 interceptions
• 675 rushing yards
• 13 rushing touchdowns
   

2024 MVP season:

• 63.6% completion percentage
• 3,731 passing yards
• 28 passing touchdowns
• 6 interceptions
• 531 rushing yards
• 12 rushing touchdowns
   

His career 17-game average:

• 63.5% completion percentage
• 4050 passing yards
• 30 passing touchdowns
• 13 interceptions
• 636 rushing yards
• 10 rushing touchdowns

 

 

Pretty absurd his "average" year is 40 TDs. 🤣

[warrior9]

11 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Surprised Jalen Hurts isn’t closer to top of the list.  I get that he has Saquon on his team, but the award typically goes to a QB, the Eagles are the defending SB champs and are undefeated.  Bills/Eagles late in the season may very much decide who wins MVP.  While I’ll be rooting for the Bills or course, 14-1 on Hurts is good value versus 1-1 for Josh.

Because it's "Most Valuable Player" 12 QB's could have won a SB with that team last year. 

 

If you take Hurts off that team this year, they still make the playoffs and potentially go deep with quite a few QBs. The same can not be said for Buffalo, KC, etc 

[Pete]

54 minutes ago, theAteam said:

Surprised Allen is front-running, he hasn't done anything particularly impressive stat-wise. Cook's been the engine of the offense so far (not that I'm complaining). I'm guessing that Week 1 comeback is still driving those odds.

 

Also where is Daniel Jones? I know he's Daniel Jones but he's been playing very well so far.

250 passing yards and 3 TDs - in the 4th quarter.    Are you still not impressed?

[Big Turk]

56 minutes ago, theAteam said:

Surprised Allen is front-running, he hasn't done anything particularly impressive stat-wise. Cook's been the engine of the offense so far (not that I'm complaining). I'm guessing that Week 1 comeback is still driving those odds.

 

Also where is Daniel Jones? I know he's Daniel Jones but he's been playing very well so far.

 

Umm...he out gained like 12 other teams that week in the entire game against the Ravens in the 4th quarter alone, are you actually serious right now?

[Buffalo03]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

1-3 doesn’t help.  
 

Trevor Lawrence will make an appearance on this list at some point.  The Jags are not a mirage.  Lawrence looks like he might have turned a corner.  Stafford?  Shirley.  Love instead of Goff?  Not sure on that.  Non-QB vote getter?  Bijan Robinson.

Lawrence hasn't turned a corner lol. Have you actually watched the Jags? He isn't terrible but he is nowhere near the prospect they said he would be coming out and it's year 5 for him

 

Edited September 29 by Buffalo03

[BillytheKid]

25 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

If you want to compare players to see how they are doing post the stats.  Otherwise, just post betting odds and don’t bother trying to figure out who the frontrunners are. 

I did post stats. 
 

I follow this every year. I know what I am talking about. 
 

Allen is most definitely the front runner.

Go back and scroll and see what I 

posted on Allen’s stats. 

 

Allen is the only QB in the top 5 or top 10 of many multiple stats. Only other QB close is Lamar. And his team is 1-3 so far and he looked bad yesterday. 

19 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

This is from DraftKings. A little different from OP's odds:

 

Josh Allen: +110

Lamar Jackson: +650

Justin Herbert: +700

Patrick Mahomes: +1000

Jalen Hurts: +1300

Jordan Love: +1600

Baker Mayfield: +1800

Matthew Stafford: +1800

Jayden Daniels: +2500

Jared Goff: +3000

 

Jackson is once again compiling some ridiculous stats, but that 1-3 start is going to be tough to overcome. 

 

Mayfield, Stafford, and Goff all have good value at those odds IMO. It's ridiculous that Daniels is even on the list. He's already missed 2 games with injury, and was terrible in 1 of the 2 games he did play in. 

Yeah the ones I got were from Fanduel. 

32 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

But why isn't the QB who's #1 in QBR, passer rating, TDs, or yards per game the leading MVP candidate.

 

As you know, stats matter.  But so does the eye test, context, hype, personality, and wins.  It's a complicated, subjective evaluation with many considerations, not all of which are fair.   

Because as I showed with the stats Allen is the only one in the top 5 or top 6 in all of the categories other than Lamar. 
 

One guy is first in QBR but nowhere to be found in many other stats and Lamar is first in passer rating but his team looks horrible so he dropped down. 
You have a lot of different leaders in different categories.

 

Whoever ends up the betting favorite at the end of the year will win the award and that is why using the betting favorites each week tell you who is in front. 

[Doc Brown]

I saw Mahomes at +1000 on DraftKings.  That's really good value considering the Chargers will probably choke the division away and Mahomes will have to throw a lot to win.  

[Process]

24 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

This is from DraftKings. A little different from OP's odds:

 

Josh Allen: +110

Lamar Jackson: +650

Justin Herbert: +700

Patrick Mahomes: +1000

Jalen Hurts: +1300

Jordan Love: +1600

Baker Mayfield: +1800

Matthew Stafford: +1800

Jayden Daniels: +2500

Jared Goff: +3000

 

Jackson is once again compiling some ridiculous stats, but that 1-3 start is going to be tough to overcome. 

 

Mayfield, Stafford, and Goff all have good value at those odds IMO. It's ridiculous that Daniels is even on the list. He's already missed 2 games with injury, and was terrible in 1 of the 2 games he did play in. 

Thanks. At those odds Mahomes and Goff are the best bets IMO. 

[BillytheKid]

31 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

If you want to compare players to see how they are doing post the stats.  Otherwise, just post betting odds and don’t bother trying to figure out who the frontrunners are. 

Also as I stated before whoever is on top of the betting odds is who will win the award. 
 

the stats don’t even matter other than to help guys getting higher up on the betting odds along with how their team is doing. 
 

So all you have to do is look at the betting odds each week to see who the ACTUAL front runners are. Nothing else matters in reality. 
 

Like I said whoever has finished as the betting odds leader after the last week of the season has won the MVP every year for the last 25 to 30 years other than the one year Adrian Peterson was 2nd in the betting odds and won it. 

[wppete]

Lamar Jackson +900? Is this a joke? Lamar is done. He shouldn’t be anywhere near this list. And how is Baker Mayfield not on this list? 

[Doc Brown]

33 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Surprised Jalen Hurts isn’t closer to top of the list.  I get that he has Saquon on his team, but the award typically goes to a QB, the Eagles are the defending SB champs and are undefeated.  Bills/Eagles late in the season may very much decide who wins MVP.  While I’ll be rooting for the Bills or course, 14-1 on Hurts is good value versus 1-1 for Josh.

He's throwing for 152 ypg right now.  That's too low to be an MVP.