Game week thread - Pats at Bills SNF

[Mat68]

6 minutes ago, billieve420 said:

This defense lives and dies on turnovers. If they are not forcing turnovers it could be a closer game than expected. I just hope to see better effort than what they showed against the Saints. Really no excuses not to be undefeated going into that KC game in a few weeks.

Their passing defense and total yards against say a different thing.  Teams not named baltimore are having trouble sustaining drives and making explosive plays.  Olave, Shaheed, Wilson, Hall, Hill, Waddle and Achane had 0 plays over 20 yards.  Those are some of the most explosive guys in the league.  I think the chase for perfection is clouding some judgement on the current state of the defense.  A few the last few weeks Buffalo covers and blows them out.  Instead they win by 2 scores in each.  With Milano and Oliver back I think Buffalo plays their best game on defense and blow the Patriots out.  Maye is loose with ball and has a terrible game.  Picks fumbles all of it.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

The patriots are going to be willing to do all the things we struggle with. We are going to be severely out coached. There needs to be a permanent move away from this extreme nickel. What we do does not work. There is no logical reason to continue it. It’s been time to put a 3rd LB on the field for years. This will be a game where we pay for it. It’s time for someone to get control of the defensive side of the ball. Wholesale changes to the philosophy are needed. The love affair with Tarron Johnson is killing us. I don’t care if he stays on the field but it’s got to be in another form. Put 3 LBs on the field or this team is going to beat us. The league has changed a lot. It’s time to get back to more base defense.

 

Would you care to provide specifics as to "all the things we struggle with"?

Would you care to provide specifics as to in what way "we are going to be severely outcoached"?

Win % as HC

McDermott 0.667 (includes a year with Tyrod Taylor as QB and two years where Josh Allen was developing/figuring it out)

Vrabel 0.544 (Tannehill QB, Henry RB)

So that "severely out coached does need a little bit of explanation or granularity as a blanket claim

"Willing to do" not equal to "able to do"

 

Edited Thursday at 02:56 PM by Beck Water

[boater]

Drake Maye is very good, and the Bills defense is horrible. It is going to be a close game.

[BillsFan130]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Would you care to provide specifics as to "all the things we struggle with"?

Would you care to provide specifics as to in what way "we are going to be severely outcoached"?

 

First off I do think the bills win this game by a TD or so.

 

But my big concern for coaching is Josh McDaniels vs Bobby Babich. That is a massive advantage for the Pats IMO

[Buffalo4Life01]

7 minutes ago, boater said:

Drake Maye is very good, and the Bills defense is horrible. It is going to be a close game.

Through the 1st 4 games of the season Maye is tied for 3rd for most QB sacks taken at over 3 per game.  I know he likes to scramble and extend plays like Josh does but he also will hold on to the ball waiting for a deep shot to come open while hanging in the pocket.  Opportunities for sacks will be there.

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

This is going to be a closer game than a lot of fans in this thread and the Predict the Score thread think.

 

With a Vrabel team, I expect them to come out fired up and ready to play. We'll see if the Bills can match their energy and physicality.

 

I expect the Pats to establish the run immediately and successfully. Will look very much like the wind game. And then start hitting play action passes.

 

They'll play ball control and clock control and work to not give Josh much Time of Possession or chances.

 

While I predicted 27-24, it very well may end up more like 20-17.

 

And Vrabel will dip into his bag of tricks to out-maneuver McDermott and sneak out an extra possession. And in a one-score game that may be trouble.

This is exactly how I see it.  The Pats see this as a prime time statement game coming out party.  They will be energized and physical.  Vrabel will sprinkle in a fake punt or field goal or something like that to try and take advantage of a sleepy and reactive Bills team.  Game could easily come down to a last-second field goal/attempt.

Edited Thursday at 03:00 PM by Coach Tuesday

[boyst]

36 minutes ago, boater said:

Drake Maye is very good, and the Bills defense is horrible. It is going to be a close game.

every page on this thread Maye gets better. He's the second coming of Mac Jones!!!!

a few pages ago he was good. then he was really good. now he is very good.

 

on page 25 he's gonna be great!

 

page 30 is gonna be excellent.

 

by 40 he will be all time all pro

 

he's a serviceable qb at this point. a mid tier starter. that's nothing special.

[Beck Water]

32 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

First off I do think the bills win this game by a TD or so.

 

But my big concern for coaching is Josh McDaniels vs Bobby Babich. That is a massive advantage for the Pats IMO

 

Maybe.  Where did this notion that Josh McDaniels is an unrelenting offensive genius come from?

As HC the offensive genius has a win record of 0.337

As OC of the St Louis Rams, 2-14 (1-9 with a QB that had gone 7-9 the previous year as a rookie).  Bradford looked like he simply couldn't play.  Next year under Schottenheimer, could play again.  Huh.

 

As OC of NE with a QB not named Brady, 17-19.  He had Mac Jones looking good, I will grant that.  

 

Meanwhile Bobby Babich coached the #11 defense in the NFL last year.

 

I'm not trying to say that the Bills are going to blow out the Pats.  They have their problems this year.  But to my eyes, the problems are more related to the Jimmies and the Joes than the Xs and the Os or the brain power advantage. 

 

For years, the Bills had the advantage of a safety duo that was mentally elite.  They read and reacted impeccably.  We don't have that now; we don't even have the mental level that we had last year with Hamlin and Rapp.  Maybe Bishop and Rapp will level up, maybe they won't.

 

I'm just trying to understand where this Bills fan perception of inexorable mental advantage is coming from.

 

 

[eball]

GREAT choice for Legend of the Game this week — FredEx!!!

 

That 2011 game is still my favorite drought era memory…Fred was running around the field with a Bills flag afterwards!

 

[Success]

One thing I noticed watching highlights of the Panthers/Pats game was how clean Maye's pocket was on the big throws he made.  Really, no pressure.

 

Getting pressure on him is key.  He has all of the skills, but he makes mistakes and his accuracy goes way down when he has less time.  I'm sure we'll do better than Carolina w/ that.

 

The Pats have a pretty middlin' run game, so if we can pressure Maye and limit their big special teams plays, this could be a more comfortable win than most of us seem to think.

 

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

The patriots are going to be willing to do all the things we struggle with. We are going to be severely out coached. There needs to be a permanent move away from this extreme nickel. What we do does not work. There is no logical reason to continue it. It’s been time to put a 3rd LB on the field for years. This will be a game where we pay for it. It’s time for someone to get control of the defensive side of the ball. Wholesale changes to the philosophy are needed. The love affair with Tarron Johnson is killing us. I don’t care if he stays on the field but it’s got to be in another form. Put 3 LBs on the field or this team is going to beat us. The league has changed a lot. It’s time to get back to more base defense.

Taron has his lowest % of snaps since his rookie year this year.  We are using him less.  

54 minutes ago, boater said:

Drake Maye is very good, and the Bills defense is horrible. It is going to be a close game.

Now sort by QBR.  Those 13 sacks and fumble loom large.  Maye is playing well but the things he does less well are not being captured by passer rating.  The Bills defense is not horrible with regard to passing defense.  Its actually top 10 (top 5 in many metrics) in the league.  Maye as a thrower versus our pass defense will be strength on strength.  

Edited Thursday at 03:21 PM by YattaOkasan

[gordong]

so now the pats are better then Baltimore I see...  tuff game sure but 100% should win this game

[zow2]

Supposedly no one can run effectively against the NE defensive front.  We shall see.  buffalo’s offensive line is a huge strength and they better come to play and win this battle in the trenches.

[eball]

52 minutes ago, boater said:

the Bills defense is horrible.

 

16.67 points against the last three games.  The Jets average 22.5, Miami averages 20.75, and New Orleans averages 16.5 (including our games).

 

As everyone knows there are a number of things the Bills defense needs to do better going forward, but this narrative that they are “horrible” is absolutely ridiculous.

 

Carry on.

 

 

[MasterStrategist]

9 minutes ago, boyst said:

every page on this thread Maye gets better. He's the second coming of Mac Jones!!!!

a few pages ago he was good. then he was really good. now he is very good.

 

on page 25 he's gonna be great!

 

page 30 is gonna be excellent.

 

by 40 he will be all time all pro

 

he's a serviceable qb at this point. a mid tier starter. that's nothing special.

100%.  He is better than Mac IMO, but hes a tier 3 QB in this league (maybe mid tier 2 in afc alone) -  serviceable/does some things well, but hes not winning you games by himself.  For example, hes not Jayden Daniels caliber.

 

I'd put ahead of him, in no particular order: Josh, Lamar, Burrow, Mahomes, Herbert in the Afc (5 qbs).  Hes "on par" with Stroud, Bo Nix, Tua, and Daniel Jones IMO.  He has a ceiling of Herbert, but hes close to that yet.

 

I could care less about stats - just watching him play in year 2.  And for all those saying hes comparable to Josh year 2, that's just nuts.  Josh was on entire different level, just was inconsistent/trying to do too much at times.

[Beck Water]

13 minutes ago, boyst said:

every page on this thread Maye gets better. He's the second coming of Mac Jones!!!!

a few pages ago he was good. then he was really good. now he is very good.

 

on page 25 he's gonna be great!

 

page 30 is gonna be excellent.

 

by 40 he will be all time all pro

 

he's a serviceable qb at this point. a mid tier starter. that's nothing special.

 

He's a 2nd year QB whose record was 3-9 last year.   

Historically, McDermott has taken hot young QB, shaken them upside down, and stolen their lunch money all while smiling and talking them up "show me a QB who's been playing better" before the game.

 

Now.  McD may not be able to do that this season, because the cast of players are different and there are indications of some confusion on our defense that needs to get ironed out fast.  But the presumption of coaching superiority being granted to Vrabel and McDaniel is mind-boggling to me.

We struggled with Tennessee under Vrabel because they had this wrecking ball named Derrick Henry.  McDermott's record vs Tenn under Vrabel is 3-2, with one of the losses being a blowout (the Tuesday game after the Tennessee Covid kerfluffle) and one of them being a close loss arguably decided by some execution issues (although one could blame McDermott for going for a win rather than a FG and overtime I guess).

I would expect a Vrabel coached team to be tough, disciplined, and have no quit in them.  McDaniel knows him some offense and given a cast who can execute what he designs, he's good.  I expect a tough game.

 

But reading some posters in this thread, they seem to believe that Vrabel and McDaniel are due for Coaching Canonization in a blaze of golden light, while McDermott and Babich are something you clean off your shoe soles after walking down a messy sidewalk.  

 

That's not what the record says.

[boyst]

1 minute ago, MasterStrategist said:

100%.  He is better than Mac IMO, but hes a tier 3 QB in this league (maybe mid tier 2 in afc alone) -  serviceable/does some things well, but hes not winning you games by himself.  For example, hes not Jayden Daniels caliber.

 

I'd put ahead of him, in no particular order: Josh, Lamar, Burrow, Mahomes, Herbert in the Afc (5 qbs).  Hes "on par" with Stroud, Bo Nix, Tua, and Daniel Jones IMO.  He has a ceiling of Herbert, but hes close to that yet.

 

I could care less about stats - just watching him play in year 2.  And for all those saying hes comparable to Josh year 2, that's just nuts.  Josh was on entire different level, just was inconsistent/trying to do too much at times.

my point wasn't if he is or isn't better than Macorkle.

 

it was that in Mac's career growth he was the next coming of a tier 1 franchise QB. Maye is on the cusp of this lip - to prove it or not. i think he has a higher ceiling than Mac but isn't to Mac's ceiling yet. Mac had a few very good games. Maye is going out and slinging it all around as they have no choice but to run it with bad RB's and offense where he has to try to do it all.

[Rockinon]

1 hour ago, billieve420 said:

This defense lives and dies on turnovers. If they are not forcing turnovers it could be a closer game than expected. I just hope to see better effort than what they showed against the Saints. Really no excuses not to be undefeated going into that KC game in a few weeks.

I think this is slightly flawed reasoning. The Bills have been pretty decent on 1st and 2nd down but giving up big plays on 3rd down. It has been a number of small things that have contributed to that. All the Bills have to do is start getting some stops on 3rd down and getting the ball back in Josh's hands. This defense is good at forcing turnovers but it certainly isn't who they are. They've got the talent to be more than a live or die by TO defense. Get some 3rd down stops and they will be. No reason to be giving up so many 3rd and longs. It is going to be fixed.

[billsfan89]

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

16.67 points against the last three games.  The Jets average 22.5, Miami averages 20.75, and New Orleans averages 16.5 (including our games).

 

As everyone knows there are a number of things the Bills defense needs to do better going forward, but this narrative that they are “horrible” is absolutely ridiculous.

 

Carry on.

 

 

 

The defense last year was ranked 17th. It did well against sub par offense, OK against OK offense, and bad against good offenses. This year with an influx of talent hopefully it can push at top 10 ranking which would be a substantial improvement. Thus far it is ranked something like 12th overall. We haven't seen this team play great offenses week to week other than week 1 against a healthy Ravens which the team did not fare well. Other than that the defense has faired from OK to very good against lesser offenses. 

[boyst]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

He's a 2nd year QB whose record was 3-9 last year.   

Historically, McDermott has taken hot young QB, shaken them upside down, and stolen their lunch money all while smiling and talking them up "show me a QB who's been playing better" before the game.

 

Now.  McD may not be able to do that this season, because the cast of players are different and there are indications of some confusion on our defense that needs to get ironed out fast.  But the presumption of coaching superiority being granted to Vrabel and McDaniel is mind-boggling to me.

We struggled with Tennessee under Vrabel because they had this wrecking ball named Derrick Henry.  McDermott's record vs Tenn under Vrabel is 3-2, with one of the losses being a blowout (the Tuesday game after the Tennessee Covid kerfluffle) and one of them being a close loss arguably decided by some execution issues (although one could blame McDermott for going for a win rather than a FG and overtime I guess).

I would expect a Vrabel coached team to be tough, disciplined, and have no quit in them.  McDaniel knows him some offense and given a cast who can execute what he designs, he's good.  I expect a tough game.

 

But reading some posters in this thread, they seem to believe that Vrabel and McDaniel are due for Coaching Canonization in a blaze of golden light, while McDermott and Babich are something you clean off your shoe soles after walking down a messy sidewalk.  

 

That's not what the record says.

100% agree.  on paper it is one perspective. in reality on the field it is another.

 

i could see this game being close but i do not expect the bills to be out of control at any time even if they don't have good footing or struggle.

 

i think they are a few weeks away from a complete game. i anticipate our get right and balance it out game to be MNF against atlanta. i think atlanta is gonna come out and pop us in the mouth and we decide to open a can of whoop ass.