Good, detailed analysis of Bills’ third down problems vs Miami (The Athletic)

[dave mcbride]

Joe B breaks down every third down situation the Dolphins faced: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6655576/2025/09/24/bills-defense-third-downs/.

 

Basic takeaway: three young players — Deone Walker, Cole Bishop, and TJ Sanders — were responsible for many of the problems. Also, Bernard and Tre White made mistakes (or simply failed to make a play) on a couple of occasions too. Otherwise, the Bills were reasonably sound, and their success on 1st and 2nd down suggests that they’re not in crisis. Rather, they’re dealing with the growing pangs of youth. Missing Ed Oliver is a problem too.

Edited Thursday at 12:43 PM by dave mcbride

[eball]

I’ll read the article also, but this is encouraging and goes along with what many of us have said — this is a young defense with injuries/suspensions that is not even close to what it will be later in the season.  It’s a blessing that our offense is so damn good we can withstand the growing pains and have a very manageable schedule over the next month.

 

[Sierra Foothills]

This is Buscaglia's summary from the article;

 

"When you sit back and analyze each of the individual breakdowns, several commonalities emerge. Over half of the missed third and fourth-down opportunities were a direct result of a young and inexperienced player being at the fulcrum of the play. The primary trio that seemed responsible was Walker, Sanders and Bishop — all of whom are in their first season of real, down-in and down-out experience. The Bills need all three to be better. With Walker, we saw the young player’s volatility result in a tremendous individual play late in the game to help force the game-clinching interception, along with some other good reps. Sanders’ role will likel y get smaller upon Ed Oliver’s return, while the Bills will hope that Bishop comes along as the season progresses — and to their credit, Bishop had a good game against the Jets."

 

Buscaglia blames Tre White only for the 7th 3rd down attempt, the corner blitz on which he whiffed.

 

On the 13th 3rd down attempt, Buscaglia describes it thusly: "The Bills, a zone-based team, tried to mix in man coverage on fourth down — but without rushing more than four at Tagovailoa. Some pre-snap motion signaled to the Dolphins that it was man, and the Waddle matchup against White was one to exploit, as Waddle is the far quicker player. The quick crosser through some traffic yielded easy separation and a quick first down. Without a blitzer, it was an interesting call to say the least."

 

On the 14th 3rd down attempt Buscaglia describes it thusly: "The Bills, back in zone coverage this time with a couple of delayed blitzers sent at Tagovailoa, saw White keep backing up into off coverage without someone immediately over the top to help him out. Rather than risk getting burned deep by the speedy Waddle, White wound up three yards past the first down marker. Waddle ran a great route that prevented White from closing on him, and a perfect pass thrown before Waddle’s break to the sideline brought an easy completion."

 

"The good news is that it wasn’t complete schematic breakdowns or just a complete lack of pressure that did the Bills in, but rather some individual errors that appear fixable at the current moment. The Bills also will have some key rotational players like defensive end Michael Hoecht, defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, some practice squad veterans like Jordan Phillips and Jordan Poyer available, in addition to rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston, who could mix in at some point.

Are the Bills going to be a shutdown defense in 2025? That’s a questionable premise, given some of the personnel issues. However, especially considering how well they played on first and second down, their ceiling capabilities are higher than what they exhibited last week on third downs. This may simply be a part of the rollercoaster ride of using several inexperienced players — a work in progress that we’re seeing play out each week of the season."

 

Edited Thursday at 01:28 PM by Sierra Foothills

[Big Turk]

32 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

This is Buscaglia's summary from the article;

 

"When you sit back and analyze each of the individual breakdowns, several commonalities emerge. Over half of the missed third and fourth-down opportunities were a direct result of a young and inexperienced player being at the fulcrum of the play. The primary trio that seemed responsible was Walker, Sanders and Bishop — all of whom are in their first season of real, down-in and down-out experience. The Bills need all three to be better. With Walker, we saw the young player’s volatility result in a tremendous individual play late in the game to help force the game-clinching interception, along with some other good reps. Sanders’ role will likel y get smaller upon Ed Oliver’s return, while the Bills will hope that Bishop comes along as the season progresses — and to their credit, Bishop had a good game against the Jets."

 

Buscaglia blames Tre White only for the 7th 3rd down attempt, the corner blitz on which he whiffed.

 

On the 13th 3rd down attempt, Buscaglia describes it thusly: "The Bills, a zone-based team, tried to mix in man coverage on fourth down — but without rushing more than four at Tagovailoa. Some pre-snap motion signaled to the Dolphins that it was man, and the Waddle matchup against White was one to exploit, as Waddle is the far quicker player. The quick crosser through some traffic yielded easy separation and a quick first down. Without a blitzer, it was an interesting call to say the least."

 

On the 14th 3rd down attempt Buscaglia describes it thusly: "The Bills, back in zone coverage this time with a couple of delayed blitzers sent at Tagovailoa, saw White keep backing up into off coverage without someone immediately over the top to help him out. Rather than risk getting burned deep by the speedy Waddle, White wound up three yards past the first down marker. Waddle ran a great route that prevented White from closing on him, and a perfect pass thrown before Waddle’s break to the sideline brought an easy completion."

 

"The good news is that it wasn’t complete schematic breakdowns or just a complete lack of pressure that did the Bills in, but rather some individual errors that appear fixable at the current moment. The Bills also will have some key rotational players like defensive end Michael Hoecht, defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, some practice squad veterans like Jordan Phillips and Jordan Poyer available, in addition to rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston, who could mix in at some point.

Are the Bills going to be a shutdown defense in 2025? That’s a questionable premise, given some of the personnel issues. However, especially considering how well they played on first and second down, their ceiling capabilities are higher than what they exhibited last week on third downs. This may simply be a part of the rollercoaster ride of using several inexperienced players — a work in progress that we’re seeing play out each week of the season."

 

 

White also had to avoid a pick on the Waddle crosser play as well.

Edited Thursday at 01:55 PM by Big Turk

[chris heff]

I had already read this and also found it encouraging. The hope is these young guys will learn and get better, even if two out of three improve, and the suspended guys show up, this defense will be fine.

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, chris heff said:

I had already read this and also found it encouraging. The hope is these young guys will learn and get better, even if two out of three improve, and the suspended guys show up, this defense will be fine.

 

The defense during the regular season I don't care about...can it actually get better like the majority of great teams do in the playoffs for once instead of drastically worse is the question?

[Sierra Foothills]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

White also had to avoid a pick on the Waddle crosser play as well.

 

Yes, as Buscaglia pointed out there was traffic there and I don't think there's a corner in the NFL that would have prevented that conversion.

 

[JP51]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Joe B breaks down every third down situation the Dolphins faced: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6655576/2025/09/24/bills-defense-third-downs/.

 

Basic takeaway: three young players — Deone Walker, Cole Bishop, and TJ Sanders — were responsible for many of the problems. Also, Bernard and Tre White made mistakes (or simply failed to make a play) on a couple of occasions too. Otherwise, the Bills were reasonably sound, and their success on 1st and 2nd down suggests that they’re not in crisis. Rather, they’re dealing with the growing pangs of youth. Missing Ed Oliver is a problem too.

This is great thanks for this!

[PoundingDog]

Common sense says that if an offense has top weapons, pressure on QB is more important than coverage. Conversely if you have a super QB but so-so weapons, you can do well by coverage.

 

The Bills has done reasonably well against Mahomes in recent years is because the Chiefs don't have a lot of big time weapons (Kelce is aging). And the Bills always have a hard time against the Ravens is because we can't pressure Lamar while taking care of Henry and covering guys like Likely, Flowers etc. 

 

If you can cover well and pressure, then you are a dominant defense. Phily showed that against the Chiefs. We are not that.

 

So for me, I still put the blame on Miami's 3rd down success on us not able to generate pressure without doing blitzing all the time. The kind of issue Tre White experienced (as well as the limitation of safeties IDing the likely pass direction) is exactly why McDermott and Babich are afraid to go man and blitz the hell out of Tua. And they probably thought we could pressure enough against Dolphins OL with our 4 man front. The Tua INT play is exactly the kind of pressure + backend play McDermott and Babich expected walking into the Dolphins game. The question is one such a play a game is good enough? That's bare minimum - one play, and so far Josh Allen and the offense make it stands. Come playoff time when everything is tighter and opposing team offense is of higher quality, you may not get that ONE play; we've seen that in our previous playoff exit games.  

[Einstein]

Tre was not good.

[Ned Flanders]

Buscaglia and The Athletic are worth the monthly subscription price.

[Mat68]

Miami is a unique team.  They operate underneath with hope of a defensive correction that opens up shots down the field.  Mcdermott and Babich never wavered.  A few missed tackles and soft coverage in man to man situations makes the final numbers more glaring than the actual football would tell you.  They moved the ball twice and were heavily added with special teams blunders on 2 other drives.  After the game is over Miami ran alot of plays with minimal production.  Defense was in blender vs Baltimore have since recovered.  Concern with Miami is their speed and explosive plays.  They had 0 plays over 20 yards all game. Passing or rushing.  

Edited Thursday at 03:00 PM by Mat68

[34-78-83]

46 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Tre was not good.

Tre made about exactly as many good impactful plays as he did poor plays. 

 

- On the plus side he had 2 very nice pass breakups and 2 nice run fits for no gain.

- On the minus side he whiffed on the blitz and had 3 single coverage moments (no help over top on 2, crosser on one) where he couldn't keep up enough to make the play.

 

Tre was up and down. About what most teams get out of their #2 corner.

 

[Roundybout]

I get flamed for saying it, but it’s NOT the scheme. It’s the players. It always has been. 

[Allen2Moulds]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

Tre was not good.

I agree, he looks old and slow in coverage. The whiff on the Tua blitz is also equally bad, given that Tua is athletically limited. He came in untouched, and Tua did a simple sidestep. I think Tre has very little confidence, when it comes to a hard sudden cut or stop. It's hard to play CB in this league, if you don't trust your knees.

Just my opinion, of how it looked. At this point, I rather see Strong.

[HappyDays]

I can live with player mistakes that lead to 3rd down conversions. I can't live with the coaching mistakes though. There's too much experience in the defensive coaching staff including our head coach for that to ever be the primary problem on a play.

 

Joe points out the 4th down conversion where we had Tre manned up on Waddle with no blitz called. That is a coaching failure, made it way too easy for Miami to execute. This drive ends in a TD.

 

The end of half TD I put entirely on coaching as well. On 3rd and 3 from our 10 Tyreek Hill is lined up in the backfield which should be an immediate red flag; instead nobody on defense pays any attention to him at all and Tua easily hits him for the 1st down. On the very next play Tre is playing outside leverage on Waddle with no inside help. Easy pitch and catch, TD.

 

So that is 14 points directly attributed to defensive coaching failures. If you call a blitz and the offense beats it, you tip your cap and move on. But you can't have plays where the play call is totally wrong for the situation, or hanging certain players out to dry. And it's not just a one game problem, it's a continuation of a trend from last year. That makes me less receptive to the idea that we can just execuse it away as one bad game. They gotta get it figured out.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

3 hours ago, eball said:

I’ll read the article also, but this is encouraging and goes along with what many of us have said — this is a young defense with injuries/suspensions that is not even close to what it will be later in the season.  It’s a blessing that our offense is so damn good we can withstand the growing pains and have a very manageable schedule over the next month.

 

I honestly think the Bills kicked out on schedule in that the young guys have time to get their feet under them with the suspensions and then the vets back for when things tighten up.

 

Cover One pointed out some of Walkers hiccups but the potential is still incredible

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Yes, as Buscaglia pointed out there was traffic there and I don't think there's a corner in the NFL that would have prevented that conversion.

 

 

Agree. The Dolphins caught us in a bad call against what they ran. That wasn't on players. White or anyone else. McDaniel beat Babich on that rep.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

47 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I agree, he looks old and slow in coverage. The whiff on the Tua blitz is also equally bad, given that Tua is athletically limited. He came in untouched, and Tua did a simple sidestep. I think Tre has very little confidence, when it comes to a hard sudden cut or stop. It's hard to play CB in this league, if you don't trust your knees.

Just my opinion, of how it looked. At this point, I rather see Strong.

I think he’s been pretty good tbh he is a bit athletically limited though for sure…we tend to gloss over the positive plays to focus on the negative and tre is the best example of that.

 

he’s a really good depth corner for some spot starts at this stage but he’s forced into being an everyday cb2 role indefinitely right now which he’s a little bit better than ok at to my eye. Sure beats Elam getting forced into the lineup though 😂

 

I could see strong pushing Tre down the depth chart further with more experience but Tre knows the system well in the short term 

Edited Thursday at 04:15 PM by Generic_Bills_Fan

[DapperCam]

I’d like to believe this is true (just some youth that needs experience), but giving up 3rd and longs has been a pattern for multiple seasons and we were one of the worst 3rd down defenses last season in the entire league.

 

I think it has to do with scheme and play calling as well. Possibly also due to inability to get a pass rush in expected passing downs (which has been true for multiple seasons).