Bills Defense, will it get better as season goes on

[HamptonBillsfan]

Bills must start lighting a fire under Rousseau, Sanders, Epenesa, in order to get after the QB. with someone not named Bosa.If they can’t Babich should throw in a few corner blitzes like the Chiefs do. The advantages derived out of sacks and QB pressures are huge in the NFL. Without QB pressure our secondary is exposed. It’s hard to believe Tre has stood up as well as he has through the first 3 weeks. He obviously struggles against speed receivers on crossings and vertical passes. Bishop is mostly out of position or making tackles 20 to 30 yards downfield. Benford, Bernard, Milano and Rapp have all made plays but these guys are all balls to the wall hard hitters and tend to get dinged. Our depth is not great. I can expect Hoecht and Ogengobi along with Hairston to provide solid play when they settle in but Oliver is the most important player in that his pressure opens up opportunities for edge guys.

[Alphadawg7]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I also do not think Bobby Babich is particularly good. The third down defense is a problem not entirely because of how he calls it but definitely partly how he calls it. I know he is still a relatively inexperienced coordinator and he has had some highlights (his regular season gameplan v KC last year was outstanding) but I feel like he is a weak spot. 

 

Yeah he has a lot to prove still for sure, and they definitely need to get better on 3rd down

[Dillenger4]

Once Max comes back he will replace White. He has speed and likes to tackle.

Hoecht will be a nice addition too.

Ed Oliver... nuff said.

Our D is fine. we are 3-0.

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, Chicharito said:

I for one always complained about our soft zone defense and how good teams pick us apart in it. Then I watch the last couple of games and get even more concerned how our DB’s get torched in man. Unless we can come up with a consistent pressure on quarterbacks we are in for a long ride.

 

That didn't used to be the case...for a long time we were essentially a "No Fly Zone" that on average allowed WELL under 200 yards passing a game for years.

[machine gun kelly]

2 hours ago, Casey D said:

I agree the defense has been Ok the last two weeks.  Moreover, there is every reason to suspect--assuming no catastrophic injuries-- that the D will continue to improve.  First, the young guys will get better with experience and experience in the system.  Hecht and Ogunjobi will join after three more games.  And then there is Hairston.  Add all that together and by December the defense should be performing at a solid B+ level, which should be more than good enough to complement this offense.  But until they do it, they have not done it, and fans with PTSD from this defense in the past will be on edge. 

I think with the returns, and the schedule helps the next four weeks or really five.  NO, Cheats, Falcons (i thought could be a challenge, but they are pathetic), a bye, and then the Panthers.  That allows this defense to make it while the suspended boys come back, Eddy O, and Hairston.  We just cant have more critical injuries.  It’s a real possibility we end up 7-0 before the Chiefs.  They barely beat the Giants who look awful.  Since we have no Burrow, the next big test is the Bucs, then the Eagles.  I’m not worried about the other opponents.  We’ll see as injuries happen.

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, balln said:

The biggest determinant is the first and second year players developing over the course of the year.  Cole bishop , tj sanders , walker , max, Hancock , maybe strong. I don’t think Landon is gonna do anything this year - I doubt he’s developing at all not dressing/playing. I don’t think Carter is coming back or doing anything anyway with an Achilles injury. 
 

It’s on these guys making a difference. IMO. While I’m hopeful- realistically I don’t think they and our D coaches will affect all time greats Pat Mahommes / Andy or Lamar. Or hurts or Stafford / Mcvay. When it matters 

We're probably getting nothing from Carter, Jackson and Sanders.  Ogunjobi, Solomon and AJ fall in that next tier of "not contributing much". I'm sorry but I don't buy any top20 ranking for Rousseau.  That leaves Hoecht, Oliver, DQ, Walker and Joey doing most the heavy lifting on our front 4.

 

I trust our LB corp to be decent yet not elite. Just keep Milano as healthy as possible going into January. 

 

Our db's will have to improve as we wait for Max to return.  

[notpolian]

If we avoid too many injuries, it can't get worse.  I still don't see it getting any better than league average.

 

I'm hoping Hoecht helps our DE rotation. I'm assuming Larry O. is at least a wash vs other guys.

 

I'm intrigued by Thompson, who I'm told has played a similar role to Johnson but outweighs him by 40 lbs (and outweighs our starting LBs by a bit).  Maybe he can help with the run defense.

 

Bishop should continue to improve.  His career snap count is still not that high.  Maybe Hairston sees the field and can contribute.  I think we miss Hyde and Poyer more than we hoped we would.

[BearNorth]

14 minutes ago, notpolian said:

I think we miss Hyde and Poyer more than we hoped we would.

Hyde and Poyer in their prime were solid, - their prime has passed. So far Bills haven't done a good enough job scouting and drafting & coaching to replace them.

[Wolfgang]

If healthy, yeah, the defense will get better...

 

 

[colin]

buddy ryan used different metrics than the ones that were popular at the time to evaluate defensive performances, he looked at what are now toxic plays and some other stuff.

 

anyhow, my model for the bills d: can they get stops (punts or turnovers) against elite offenses in the playoffs?  there is a bit of a blind spot which is: do we slow down the death of 1000 cuts, which seems to be at best what we've done in the past 4 or so playoff exits, but i am willing to ignore that.

 

anyhow, so far, and i'm giving a lot of grace to the bills d because we are missing our rookie (fast, not ancient like tre) corner, we are still green at SS and a lot of snaps at DT, and our roid guys are still out.

 

we got trucked by baltimore like the I-95 for a bit over 3 quarters, but stopped 4 or their last 5 drives, and the one they burned us on was lamar doing something even he can only do once in a while, and then a massive immediate let down play where henry walked in untouched.  the rest of the drives were like at best 5 and outs for baltimore, it was late in the game, and it included a turnover.

 

we rolled the jets, but they don't count.

 

vs miami, they had their best possible game, controlled the ball wonderfully, got lucky with a fluke game script where we should have been rotating between 1 and 2 score leads from the 2nd quarter on, missed a horrible kick, got stymied up on O at the worst time, and still won by 10 altho both this and the baltimore game needed a miracle turnover which we got in each case.  we also had some really terrible kick and punt coverage at times in those two closer games, especially vs miami.

 

from that perspective, where we have different coverages, can apply pressure and simulate pressure, and actually force punts we are improved.  from the POV of 3rd down, we still kinda suck out loud so far.

 

im not sold on the d, but i do think if we can get reasonably healthy, particularly if we get a bye in the playoffs, we will be able to get enough stops on who we play to win.  i figure 4 or 5 stops by the d gives us a really really high chance of winning any game.  we got i think 4 vs baltimore (haven't checked in a bit) and the ones we didn't stop felt like a runaway freight train.  we got 6 vs miami where they controlled the ball like no one's biz.

 

it is worth noting that maimi held the ball a lot, and still had putrid overall produciton.

 

also, as of now we have the number 1 rush O (i think we fall to 2 after baltimore plays tonight), and the number 32 rush d in the nfl.  if we can get that 32 to look like a 16, I think we might be going deeper than we ever have in the post season.  we'll need our roster to be pretty healthy. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, Mark80 said:

This is dumb.  The Jets had 154 yards.  The Dolphins had 276 yards.  They had 10 and 21 points respectively.  The defense came up with big stops and a turnover at the end of the Ravens game to allow the comeback.  We are down 2 starting DTs, a starting CB, a starting LB.  This is dumb.

It is not dumb to ask the question.  They gave up 40 to the Ravens in a game the Bills did not have a turnover. Dolphins converted 67% of their third downs and many were in long distance.  Jets QB is awful.  It's the same story for all of McD's tenure. The defense periodically gets destroyed by heavy rushing attacks like Baltimore or go back to 2017 and the Saints 200 yard rushing game.  The defense pads the stats against QBs like Fields and probably this week against Rattler.  The defense has trouble getting off the field unless the other team makes a mistake just like the Jags and KC in the playoffs, and the Dolphins game with Tua dropping a snap, and twice with illegal man downfield. 

 

However, a fair critique of the defense can't omit the frequency with which they create timely turnovers.  Credit the defense for the late game stops against the Ravens and the late INT of Tua.  Problem is in the playoffs the turnovers disappear. Mahomes has 9 TD passes and zero INTs in the playoffs against Buffalo. 

 

What is dumb is to assume the same late season and playoff defensive failures will occur again.  There are many new faces on defense and many are young.  They may continue to develop and as others have said the PED cheats are soon to be back.  Rousseau probably is not going to be this ineffective all season long.  Oliver was a beast and does not need to be rushed back.  The problem is that young players tend to fade as the season goes on.  If they are playing a lot of snaps now, the rookie wall may be quite a problem come January.  

 

Maybe this year will be different.  Have hope. It's week 4. 

 

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

The defense should get better, much better if no injuries.

 

E Oliver back, Milano back, PED boy Hoecht, Hairston.  

 

I also think (hope) they are in the market for a safety to start over Rapp (Bishop is developing and will get better throughout the season).  For instance, IMO, Justin Simmons would look good in a Bills uni.  Simmons has said he wants to play for a contender.

 

That would be adding 5 impactful players out of 11.  That's a huge upgrade.

[HappyDays]

Joe Buscaglia brought up a pretty crazy stat from the Dolphins game - we allowed just 3.4 yards per play on 1st and 2nd down, but 7 yards per play on 3rd down. That is where the defensive improvement needs to come from, which unfortunately is the same story from last year.

 

It's hard to pin down the exact reasons behind the 3rd down issues, feels like it's a bit of everything. Some of the play calls were bad. Sometimes the coverage breaks down right away or fails to make a tackle short of the sticks. Sometimes the pass rush takes too long to make an impact or lets the QB break contain. They just need to get it figured out because being good on 1st/2nd down but poor on 3rd down has the added downside of letting the other team control time of possession.

 

There are some reasons to be optimistic about improvement there. Oliver will come back so him next to Bosa could make our pass rush potentially a legit impact unit. Ditto but less so for when Hoecht gets back. Benford hasn't been playing his best so there's reason to think he could get back to his level of play from last year. As far as Babich's issues, we're going on 2 years now where 3rd downs have been a problem under his leadership so it's hard to find reasons to feel optimistic about him. We'll see where it goes.

[Rockinon]

The defense laid an egg in the 1st 3 quarters of the 1st game. Since though, a lot of good things have happened. The defense is showing signs of life even while losing Milano and Oliver. That first game was shockingly bad and I can understand how many think the defense as a whole won't be better than last year. I think it will be though. They just have to grow together.  We've seen some great individual plays but this is clearly a team defense that hasn't yet put it all together.  These guys are going to get better. It's just a matter of time.

[NewEra]

 

sure hope so

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:

Once Max comes back he will replace White. He has speed and likes to tackle.

 

That's what I'd like to see happen but I really doubt it will. I think Tre is giving them exactly what they want from the CB2 - hit your landmarks and keep everything in front of you. He is giving up catches but no explosive plays which is what McDermott wants from that position. His limitations do become a problem when matched up against legit WRs, and we saw him totally wash himself out of the play on a CB blitz against Tua who is not exactly an athletic QB. So I would prefer to get the player with athletic upside out there ASAP and let him get his feet wet before the playoffs. But nothing this coaching staff has ever done makes you think Hairston is going to suddenly supplant Tre unless he gets injured.

[Freddie's Dead]

No.

[bmur66]

Does a one legged duck swim in a circle? 🥴

[VW82]

Barring injuries, we should peak later in the season.

 

Getting the suspended guys back will help as has been mentioned, plus whatever Max gives us, but I'd argue it's the defensive rookies as a group that will look better later in the year. If it's not Hairston, it'll be Strong. If it's not Sanders, it'll be Walker. Cole Bishop should be better. We have depth and talent. Will coaching hold up deep in the playoffs? Lots of reasons to be dubious there but at least we're giving ourselves a chance on that side of the ball. 

 

 

[Sojourner]

3 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Hyde and Poyer in their prime were solid, - their prime has passed. So far Bills haven't done a good enough job scouting and drafting & coaching to replace them.

That’s tough to replace a single player who’s all-pro or borderline all-pro at their position. 
 

Replacing two in a season is insane. Especially at the same positional group.