Bills cuts discussion

[RoscoeParrish]

18 minutes ago, folz said:

 

Yes, and in the two years that I didn't include they drafted Tre, Dion, Milano, Taron, Harrison Phillips, Tremaine Edmunds, Siran Neal, Wyatt Teller, oh and a guy named Josh Allen (all guys who are still playing in the league after 7-8 years, six of whom are still with the Bills---and when the average NFL player's career is only 3.3 years). 

 

But, I'll add 2017 and 2018 in the comparison with Philadelphia.

 

Over the last eight years (2017-2024), the Eagles average first three picks is 55 and the Bills is 59. But, in 2018, the Eagles did not have a 1st or 3rd round pick (which I assume they traded for a high-end player, such as the Bills trading a 1st for Diggs). So, if I instead changed it to over the last seven years what is the Eagles average draft pick in the first three rounds? It's 48, compared to the Bills 55.4.

 

Highest picks over that span:

Bills: 7, 16, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 = 161 (or an average of 23)

Eagles: 9, 10, 13, 14, 21, 22, 30 = 119 (or an average of 17)

 

Just to be clear, you aren’t including in the average the years they didn’t have firsts but you are including the firsts they traded for from other teams?

 

The Eagles only picked 13th in 2022 because they had previously acquired the Dolphins 15th pick and traded up from there.

 

Just feels like you are holding a savvy trade against them.

 

Anyway, since 17, it sounds like there basically hasn’t been a drafting gap between the two teams, but one team has played in 3 SBs and won two of them.

[NeverOutNick]

Anyone have a list of the 53 man roster? Don’t want to search through all this maze lol 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 minute ago, NeverOutNick said:

Anyone have a list of the 53 man roster? Don’t want to search through all this maze lol 

It hasn't been released 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Bills trying to be last team in NFL to release final 53?

[Walking Tall]

6 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

Anyone have a list of the 53 man roster? Don’t want to search through all this maze lol 

You should ask that in the Bills cuts thread.

 

🫣 

 

jk

[MJS]

14 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Anyway, since 17, it sounds like there basically hasn’t been a drafting gap between the two teams, but one team has played in 3 SBs and won two of them.

The Ravens were the other team brought up that were supposedly superior to the Bills. How many superbowls have they won since 2017?

[gonzo1105]

Just now, MJS said:

The Ravens were the other team brought up that were supposedly superior to the Bills. How many superbowls have they won since 2017?

The Ravens to me are the biggest disappointment. That teams has gobs of talent by far the most talented team in the AFC and they can’t break through the Chiefs either 

[RoscoeParrish]

3 minutes ago, MJS said:

The Ravens were the other team brought up that were supposedly superior to the Bills. How many superbowls have they won since 2017?

Zero

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

The Ravens to me are the biggest disappointment. That teams has gobs of talent by far the most talented team in the AFC and they can’t break through the Chiefs either 

They can't vreak through the BILLS, much less the Chiefs...

[EmotionallyUnstable]

SVGP and the Grable move was a bit surprising 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, folz said:

 

Obviously you do not realize that only about 17-28% of third round picks in the NFL become starters (depending on whose number you use). Singletary was a starter for four years. So you are doubly wrong. Singletary would fall into the 17-28%, which means he was better than 72-83% of other 3rd round picks across the league. 

 

Most teams average just 1.7 four+-year starters per draft (out of 7-10 picks generally). So, if you get 2 long-term starters from a draft, you are above the curve. So, again, shows you that not all 2nd and 3rd rounders (or first for that matter) become starters.

 

"From a team standpoint, if just one of your draft picks is extended in a second contract, that is an average draft. Extending two is a good draft, and 3 or more extraordinarily good." [This is a quote from the last link below.]

 

This idea that other teams (or at least all of the best teams) are crushing their 2nd and 3rd round picks (hitting on starters every year in those rounds) and that Beane sucks is just not reality. Try looking at other team's drafts in comparison (noting where they are drafting as well) if you want to truly assess Beane's drafting. But to only look at our picks (and with unrealistic expectations) is not a good way to assess our GM.

 

Also, I'd like to address this idea of impact players. In the last link below, a guy did a study of 1996-2016 and broke players down into tiers. Only 1% of draftees became legendary and only 6.9% of draftees become great. That is kind of what people are looking for in relation to "impact" players. Yet, only 7.9% of total drafted players reach that status. [In a draft of approx. 230 players, that means only 18 players will be "impact" players---so basically half of the teams each year do not get an "impact"---pro bowl level player.] And then, only 12.3% fall into the good (above average) category...which I don't think people would categorize as "impact" players. Next come the JAGs, the average players. They make up another 10.5%. So, only about 30% of drafted players overall become average or better and only about 20% of drafted players become above average. [The article is from 2022 and he did look to see if things changed from the earlier data until then, but he said the numbers were still pretty much the same---up to 2022.]

 

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/board/105323/contents/odds-of-becoming-a-quality-player-in-the-nfl-by-draft-round-211678773/

 

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/f/2022/7/13/23206891/where-was-the-average-nfl-offensive-starter-drafted-by-position

 

https://www.thehogsty.com/2025/04/21/updated-the-odds-of-success-for-a-draft-pick-part-4/

 

 

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2022/4/26/23042105/nfl-draft-pick-bust-rate-remains-very-high

 

I wanted to "bump" this because these data are very important for people to understand.

 

The point still stands that for a successful team, the relevant comparators are probably other successful teams, not all 32 teams.

 

Overall it supports the point I've been making for years based on my own data mining - the chances of landing a capable NFL player - not a star, not a legend, just a guy who can "do his job" on the roster  - is something like 50% in the 1st 20 picks of the first round, falls to 30% bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd, 20% through the 3rd round, and 15% ish or less after that.

[BillsFanForever19]

With KJ Hamler and Jimmy Ciarlo cut, Hard Knocks has their annual sad turk stories for tonights episode.

[Matt_In_NH]

Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

With KJ Hamler and Jimmy Ciarlo cut, Hard Knocks has their annual sad turk stories for tonights episode.

You think that will be in tonight’s episode?

[Steptide]

What time is the deadline for cuts? 

[Beck Water]

6 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

LB Jimmy Ciarlo I hope he makes it back to our PS

 

 

A lot of our local media seemed to favor keeping him.

8 minutes ago, Steptide said:

What time is the deadline for cuts? 

 

4 pm EST although at the end, the NFL often runs a backlog processing things

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

For me the biggest surprise that Gore is still there. I mean hells yeah, let's have a stable but RB4 seems like an easy one. Maybe they are going to try to stash him with the extra spots and then waive him when guys return because rosters are set

 

[GunnerBill]

Been in the theatre.... I see Shavers made it. Do we think that means 6 receivers?

[gonzo1105]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

Been in the theatre.... I see Shavers made it. Do we think that means 6 receivers?

 

Yup

[Bill from NYC]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I wanted to "bump" this because these data are very important for people to understand.

 

The point still stands that for a successful team, the relevant comparators are probably other successful teams, not all 32 teams.

 

Overall it supports the point I've been making for years based on my own data mining - the chances of landing a capable NFL player - not a star, not a legend, just a guy who can "do his job" on the roster  - is something like 50% in the 1st 20 picks of the first round, falls to 30% bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd, 20% through the 3rd round, and 15% ish or less after that.

That was good information. I do however wonder how injuries play into those numbers. For instance, in which caregory would we place Andrew Luck? Capable? Unsuccessful? Also, Reuben Foster had injuries AND off field issues. I think that he could have been the best LB in the NFL (jmo), but he and Luck might be counted as unsuccessful picks, or am I getting this wrong?

 

Either way, thanks for the solid info.

 

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

For me the biggest surprise that Gore is still there. I mean hells yeah, let's have a stable but RB4 seems like an easy one. Maybe they are going to try to stash him with the extra spots and then waive him when guys return because rosters are set

 

Or working the phone looking for a rosterable player back at a weak spot.