Beane is good at drafting after all -- A look at 2022

[BullBuchanan]

8 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

This roster is loaded , especially with depth , training camp should be intense and we get the hard knocks which is fun

The roster is loaded ONLY with depth. We still lack impact players at most positions. That could change as the season goes on, but right now it doesn't look very promising.

Edited July 21 by BullBuchanan

[JerseyBills]

26 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

The roster is loaded ONLY with depth. We still lack impact players at most positions. That could change as the season goes on, but right now it doesn't look very promising.

Doesn't look promising? A roster that lost zero impact players, besides maybe Hollins, and added and improved on nearly every position group lol the same roster that was inches and a play away from  being AFC champions Doesn't look promising??? WTF ! Are you trolling me?

 

This is the best roster in the McD Allen era

 

you must be so fun at parties

Edited July 21 by JerseyBills

[TH3]

26 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

The roster is loaded ONLY with depth. We still lack impact players at most positions. That could change as the season goes on, but right now it doesn't look very promising.

Wut?

[BullBuchanan]

3 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Doesn't look promising? A roster that lost zero impact players, besides maybe Hollins, and added and improved on nearly every position group lol the same roster that was inches and a play away from  being AFC champions Doesn't look promising??? WTF ! Are you trolling me?

 

This is the best roster in the McD Allen era

 

you must be so fun at parties

You can't lose what you never had to begin with.

We're still nowhere near being SB Championship material, imo. I think we need 3-4 more all-pro level players to get there.

[Buffalo ill]

If some of the rookies on defense actually turn out to be solid nfl players, maybe, just maybe, the Bills will finally beat kc in the playoffs.  Maybe.

 

This last playoff exit broke me in terms of faith.  It just felt inevitable.

[folz]

22 hours ago, WeckMonster said:

1st and 2nd round picks need to be year 1 starters or at least have high impact roles.

 

3rd round picks same by year 2.

 

Looking at 2024 we would’ve won a SB if that were the case. That WAS the case for the Eagles.

 

-Coleman, Bishop, Carter = zero impact in playoffs. total whiff.

 

-Kincaid, Torrence, Williams. Playoffs = 1 strong starter and 2 replacement level players in Kincaid and Williams.

 

-Elam, Cook, Bernard. 1 bust and two strong starters.

 

so 9 top picks in last 3 years yielded 3 starters, 2 replacement level players and 4 zero impact players in last years playoffs.

 

We’d have done better picking from Kiper’s best available list.

 

fingers crossed there are big turnarounds for Kincaid, Coleman, Bishop and Carter. Though the Bills seem to have signed/drafted over Carter already.

 

 

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Also, are we comparing apples to apples when talking abut Beane in relation to other NFL GMs? Is his record markedly better? Worse? No GM hits 1.000.  In fact I heard Jerry Ostrowsky on Bills Squad say hitting on a third of your draft picks is considered solid.

 

Following Promo's note, I think we often just point to other GM's hits and think that that GM is better (or drafts better than Beane), without looking at their overall drafts and comparing them in totality. Or comparing total hits and misses, etc. We know all about other team's hits because those guys are playing, but we don't remember all of their busts, or players that washed out, or were cut. And we don't always take into context things like draft position, team needs, etc.

 

We are way more critical of Beane than we are of other GMs (not surprising, as we are Bills fans and focus our attention on the Bills). For instance, whenever we talk about this, we will say things like "well, besides Josh." Almost as if we aren't giving Beane credit for Josh. When a fan of another team looks at Beane, they may be saying, why can't our GM find a franchise QB, or hit a home run like that guy did (but we almost discount it). It's said all of the time that a GM's most important job is finding his QB.

 

And, stuff like, over the last three years, the Eagles' average draft position has been pick 113, the Bills' average draft position has been pick 140. That makes a difference.

 

Now, I'm not totally disagreeing with WeckMonster, in that I think most Bills fans would agree that Beane has not hit many home runs at the top of the draft and it would be a big boost for the team if he found more impact players in the first two rounds. But I also realize there is context to it and no GM hits home runs on every round 1 and 2 pick. Your standard of every 2nd round pick being a year one starter and every 3rd round pick being a starter by year two is incredibly high. I think if you look around the league, you will be hard pressed to find a GM that does that year in and year out. Plus, how stacked is your team? It's a lot harder for a 2nd or 3rd rounder to get playing time on a Super Bowl contender than on a team in rebuild mode.

 

Plus, a lot of the true impact players are gone by say picks 26-28, and those that are left are obviously not guarantees (or they would be drafted higher), so you're trying to pick that special guy out of say 15 other guys who all tested well and had great college stats. Could Beane be doing better at the top of his drafts, Yes, of course. But, overall, he has done pretty darn good by this organization and built a very good and very deep team (not every team has the depth that we do).

 

Another factor is fans being impatient with the development of players. When I was young, we understood that outside of the guys at the top of the first round, most players took 2-3 years to develop. Yes, it would be great if your rookies had an impact in the playoffs their first year, but just because they didn't in year one doesn't mean that they won't in year two or year three. That is why we don't evaluate drafts for 3 years out (like the OP looking at the 2022 draft now).

 

And I'd actually say that Cook did have a pretty big impact in the playoffs (278 yards, 3 TDs, 5.1 per carry), oh and Bernard (21 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 FF, 2 FR, 2 PD), oh and Torrence (starting OG), Kincaid didn't have big stats (71 yds and 1 TD)...but he was starting. As far as the rookies, you have to weigh in how the injuries impacted the trajectory of Coleman's and Carter's seasons, and Cole just wasn't ready yet. I mean, if you are even writing off Beane's good picks (Cook, Bernard, Torence...at least), of course he will pale in comparison to other GMs.

 

 

Interesting to note about if we went with Mel Kiper's picks:

Kiper's picks for the Bills: last three years (I could only find his first round mocks---so 2nd rounders not included)

2022: Kaiir Elam

2023: Jordan Addison (he was selected two picks before the Bills picked that year)

2024: Brian Thomas, Jr. (he was selected 5 spots ahead of Buffalo's pick last year)

 

So, maybe if Mel was GM, he would have traded up for one of those receivers (that is if he could find a partner, which is not a guarantee). But, if Mel didn't trade up, and picked the next best available pick on his board (slightly leaning to the position he was selecting for the Bills), his picks would have looked like this:

2022: Kaiir Elam

2023: Dalton Kincaid

2024: Xavier Worthy

 

So, the only difference would be Worthy over Coleman*. Again, you could knock Beane for not trying to trade up for one of those receivers, but then again, maybe he did try and there were no takers or the price was too high...we don't know.

 

[*And due to the trade, it is not actually just Worthy for Coleman, it is Worthy/Jaden Hicks(DB)/C.J. Hanson (OG) for Coleman/DeWayne Carter/Travis Clayton (OT).]

 

 

[stuvian]

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

The roster is loaded ONLY with depth. We still lack impact players at most positions. That could change as the season goes on, but right now it doesn't look very promising.

This - and IMO the credit goes to McDermott for getting the most out of average talent.

 

Beane has not distinguished himself as a personnel executive. No impact players on defense. No small school finds like the Rams. No big uglies along the LOS like the Eagles.

 

I'll add insult to injury when I say that the defenses of the decade of fail were better (Jerry Hughes, Kyle Williams, Aaron Schobel, Jabari Greer, Lorax, Stefon Gilmore).

 

Paying retail for Kelvin Benjamin, Stefon Diggs and Von Miller involves nothing more than writing cheques. 

 

If the results are the same, this time next year I will be among those calling for Beane's departure.

[JerseyBills]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

You can't lose what you never had to begin with.

We're still nowhere near being SB Championship material, imo. I think we need 3-4 more all-pro level players to get there.

They were literally a play away from making the SB, wtf are you talking about? 

If Benford doesn't go down we make it, Beane addressed that position and has great depth at all positions.  Our lack of great depth cost us 

[Chandler#81]

I agree completely. Yes, we’ve blown a few early round picks, but BBB is an excellent GM and draft dude!

[nosejob]

I will not complain about BBs draft results. Even the picks that don't make the team are starting elsewhere, so there's that.

The one thing that does bother me is saying "fill holes in FA so not to be forced into need"......but he does draft the 1st pick for need.....every year.

 

IMO, the 1st rounder absolutely has to have the talent to start. Period  If White starts over Max? ....

 

How many 1st rd. hits has he had? Allen, Kincaid? Oliver had to play. I think overall this year he did a very good job drafting, but as mentioned earlier, look at the guys we could have targeted the last few years as a 1st rd. pick ... ie. BTJ etc.

Edited July 22 by nosejob

[JGMcD2]

On 7/20/2025 at 4:49 PM, boater said:

The old dictum "you can't evaluate a draft for a couple years" rings true. The Buffalo News just did so. From the TBD front page, there is a link to a Buffalo News article about Beane's 2022 draft. Four of five picks were lauded because they became starters:

 

• The 2022 draft, though, could be the catalyst for the Bills completing their scale to the NFL apex – and they missed on their first-round pick, cornerback Kaiir Elam. They drafted Cook at No. 63, Bernard No. 89, Shakir No. 148 and Benford No. 185.

 

Elam was a bust, but otherwise 2022 was gold yielding four starters. Not a bad draft result for good old fella Beane. The News had comment regarding the importance of reaping draft picks who start and also those picks who make the team as backups:

 

• As the salaries of the Bills’ most important players rise via second and third contracts, so does the importance on finding cost-controlled, inexpensive labor. Players, who after a year of seasoning, can become starters. Players, who at the very least, can be valuable role options in case of injury. And players, ultimately, who can earn second contracts, removing the need to use a draft pick (or picks) to replace them.

 

Along the lines of draft picks who contribute, Beane has done well. He has had salary cap friendly draft picks make the team. I wish Beane's Pro Player personnel choices could achieve a similar level of success--that needs work, he has been disappointing in that department, IMO.

 

I look forward to judging the 2023 class next summer: Dalton Kincaid, O'Cyrus Torrence, Dorian Williams, Justin Shorter, Nick Broeker, and Alex Austin. Early assessment: the 2023 class has yielded three starters (the later three picks were cut). So 2023 is a mixed bag, his higher picks start and his washouts were disposable later round picks.

 

 

"There is nothing good or bad, except by comparison"

- Allan Huber "Bud" Selig

 

 

[TheWeatherMan]

On 7/21/2025 at 2:44 AM, DJB said:

Round 2 hasn’t really been good either 

Cody Ford and Boogie Basham picks were exceptionally awful but he has gotten value from a couple picks in round 2.  Josh being an extreme outlier, I’d say he’s had more success overall in round 2 than 1, but that’s not saying much.  

[Augie]

1 hour ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Cody Ford and Boogie Basham picks were exceptionally awful but he has gotten value from a couple picks in round 2.  Josh being an extreme outlier, I’d say he’s had more success overall in round 2 than 1, but that’s not saying much.  

 

While Cody Ford and Basham were very disappointing selections, let’s not make it out to be worse than it is. Ford started 9 games last year for the Bengals, in his 6th NFL season. Not worthy a high draft pick, but he’s an NFL player. Heck, I was surprised to see that even Basham was still on a roster last year. Every team has whiffs, and those were a couple of ours. 

 

I’m NOT saying it’s all perfect and wonderful, but it’s not as bad as some want to lead us to believe. We are a very good football team! 

[BullBuchanan]

13 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

They were literally a play away from making the SB, wtf are you talking about? 

If Benford doesn't go down we make it, Beane addressed that position and has great depth at all positions.  Our lack of great depth cost us 

This is a total myth.

People act like like it's no big deal to "just score an extra 3 points" or similar. We're already a highly efficient team. squeezing an extra 10% out of a team that's already operating optimally is not a small task and you need massive improvements to make it happen. If you watched what the Eagles did to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and thought to yourself, "we're in the same league as the Eagles", well the only thing I can say to you is that you aren't a serious person.

Edited July 22 by BullBuchanan

[folz]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

This is a total myth.

People act like like it's no big deal to "just score an extra 3 points" or similar. We're already a highly efficient team. squeezing an extra 10% out of a team that's already operating optimally is not a small task and you need massive improvements to make it happen. If you watched what the Eagles did to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and thought to yourself, "we're in the same league as the Eagles", well the only thing I can say to you is that you aren't a serious person.

 

We were a better team than the Chiefs last year and I believe we would have fared much better against Philly than K.C. did...whether that equated to a win or not, who knows. But I do know that the refs played a big part in the AFC Championship game. If that game was called fairly (and the NFL didn't care about Taylor Swift being at the Super Bowl) we wouldn't have needed to squeeze 3 more points out, we would have already been ahead and headed to the Super Bowl. If you think that the refs didn't influence that game, well the only thing I can say to you is that you aren't a serious person.

 

Plus. over the last four seasons, we have faced Kansas City seven times. Do you know what the point differential is for those seven games (at the end of regulation): it is Buffalo +28. Despite losing 3 of those 7 games, we scored 28 points more than K.C. across those games. So, tell me again how we couldn't dare to muster 3 more points against the Chiefs without 3-4 more elite players.

 

And let's not pretend like the Eagles were the greatest team we have seen in years and were completely unbeatable and out of the Bills' league. 

 

Team   Record  Points For   Points Against   Point Dif

Eagles   14-3         463               303               +160

Bills       13-4*       525               368                +157

 

The Chiefs point differential last year was +59. Almost 100 points less that the Bills and Eagles.

 

*Obviously we would have been 14-3 as well if we didn't rest our starters in week 17. 

 

Plus we beat Baltimore in the playoffs (the team that many were predicting to go all the way or considered the best team in the league by many), then lost to a team that has been to 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls by 3 points. I honestly don't think we are as far away as you believe. And we have significantly improved the D-line, WR room, and DBs. I'm sure you do not think we have added any elite players this offseason, so what do you expect for this season. We shouldn't even have a chance to contend this year (according to your standard), damn I wonder if we'll even make the playoffs...I don't know, somehow I think we will be right there in the mix again. My bet is that with the new stadium being built that the Bills will finally win their Super Bowl either this season or next...without adding 4 more elite players

 

Edited July 22 by folz

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, folz said:

 

We were a better team than the Chiefs last year

They were a higher seed than us and beat us in the playoffs AGAIN. How am i supposed to take the rest of this seriously when your thesis statement is objectively false?

[folz]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

They were a higher seed than us and beat us in the playoffs AGAIN. How am i supposed to take the rest of this seriously when your thesis statement is objectively false?

 

No comeback, huh?

 

We played them twice in 2024. We were 1-1. The Bills won their game by 9 points. The Chiefs won their game by 3 points.

 

The Bills scored 525 points last year. The Chiefs scored 385 points last year.

The Bills point differential was +157. The Chiefs point differential was +59.

 

The Chiefs got a ton of help from the refs all season long to get that record and #1 seed. Everyone talked about it all last year. And they got help from the refs in the playoff game vs. the Bills.

 

Having a hard time seeing that it would take 3-4 more elite players to ever beat KC. Even in the playoff losses, our last 3 losses to K.C. were by a total of 6 points (in regulation). Six points across 3 games. One dropped ball, one missed field goal, one coin toss that didn't go our way, one (or multiple) bad calls by the refs. This idea that we are so far away from teams like KC and Philly is not reality dude no matter how much you repeat it.

 

And you can use the excuse that we were so efficient last year (regarding turnovers, etc.) that we squeezed everything out last year and couldn't get more. But, we were not as efficient in the categories you mentioned in 2021 and 2023, yet we played KC to overtime and another 3-point loss. So, the idea that we were lucky to get as far as we did last year just because we were efficient and we can't repeat it is silly. First of all, why can't we repeat it? And secondly, we have basically been reaching the same spot (divisional round/AFC Championship) for 5 years. Yet last year was the only overly efficient year. So, it's not just that is it?

 

[YattaOkasan]

10 minutes ago, folz said:

 

No comeback, huh?

 

We played them twice in 2024. We were 1-1. The Bills won their game by 9 points. The Chiefs won their game by 3 points.

 

The Bills scored 525 points last year. The Chiefs scored 385 points last year.

The Bills point differential was +157. The Chiefs point differential was +59.

 

The Chiefs got a ton of help from the refs all season long to get that record and #1 seed. Everyone talked about it all last year. And they got help from the refs in the playoff game vs. the Bills.

 

Having a hard time seeing that it would take 3-4 more elite players to ever beat KC. Even in the playoff losses, our last 3 losses to K.C. were by a total of 6 points (in regulation). Six points across 3 games. One dropped ball, one missed field goal, one coin toss that didn't go our way, one (or multiple) bad calls by the refs. This idea that we are so far away from teams like KC and Philly is not reality dude no matter how much you repeat it.

 

And you can use the excuse that we were so efficient last year (regarding turnovers, etc.) that we squeezed everything out last year and couldn't get more. But, we were not as efficient in the categories you mentioned in 2021 and 2023, yet we played KC to overtime and another 3-point loss. So, the idea that we were lucky to get as far as we did last year just because we were efficient and we can't repeat it is silly. First of all, why can't we repeat it? And secondly, we have basically been reaching the same spot (divisional round/AFC Championship) for 5 years. Yet last year was the only overly efficient year. So, it's not just that is it?

 

I think its just one christian benford and we win.  let alone the 3-4 more elite players that he was talking about.  

[billsfan89]

5 hours ago, Augie said:

 

While Cody Ford and Basham were very disappointing selections, let’s not make it out to be worse than it is. Ford started 9 games last year for the Bengals, in his 6th NFL season. Not worthy a high draft pick, but he’s an NFL player. Heck, I was surprised to see that even Basham was still on a roster last year. Every team has whiffs, and those were a couple of ours. 

 

I’m NOT saying it’s all perfect and wonderful, but it’s not as bad as some want to lead us to believe. We are a very good football team! 

 

Cody and Boogie were also not looked at as reaches at the time of their drafting. Ford was considered an upper 2nd round fring 1st round prospect. So going around where he did was considered solid value. Then Boogie was considered a mid to late 2nd round pick and that's right in the range he went to. 

 

We all want high picks to be home runs but drafting even in the first 2-3 rounds is still an inexact process and even the best drafting organizations wiff high up. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

On 7/21/2025 at 4:55 PM, YattaOkasan said:

Sorry again, what is elite?  Cause Im still on the Benford is elite train (Brown for that matter too) with both being top 5 at their position.

 

Injuries are a very difficult thing to throw on Beane especially when they havent been chronic injuries known before (youre dinging Beane for a concussion on Benford in year 3!).  

 

lastly, if Beane is top 5 what is the argument?  If the difference is razor thin then I would say luck has lot to do with whos best or second best (see comment about Benford and concussion.  without that bad luck we have a good chance of winning that game).  

 

Benford is an interesting player, I think Bills fans tend to over-rate him and the rest of the NFL tends to under-rate him. 

 

ESPN put together a survey of NFL execs, coaches, and scouts to rank the top 10 CBs for the coming season. Benford did not make the top 10, and in fact, didn't receive even a single vote (29 players received votes). 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/45531014/top-10-nfl-cornerbacks-execs-scouts-2025-espn-jeremy-fowler-position-rankings

 

I think he's an above average starter, but not really elite. I could see him in the top 20, but not a whole lot higher than that.