Are Fan Expectations Too High for Keon Coleman?

[3rdand12]

Looking for  a two from him.

 Whos the One ?

[JohnNord]

8 hours ago, corta765 said:

Of any WR on the roster I actually think Palmer is the one you may see the biggest bang from (Shakir not included he is a beast). Palmer has great separation skills and speed. In 2023 he was trending for a 1000 yd + year but got hurt. I could see him finding a larger role more the way people hope Coleman can.

From minicamp reports, it sounded like Josh was developing good chemistry with Palmer and Moore 

[JohnNord]

4 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Keon Coleman's season was certainly underwhelming.  He wasn't terrible.  But he was not a big time guy for us for the most part.  The numbers are what they are.  He made some plays, but for the most part he was not a big difference maker for us.  I think he will be better this year if he can stay reasonably healthy.  The guy should break 50 receptions (thats averaging 3+ per game)  and get 800+ yards and 5-7 TD's.  That would be a nice but not tremendous season.  And hopefully by next year he is breaking 1000 yards with 70+ receptions.  But that will only happen if he can learn how to get some separation.  

 

I think some of the issues with Coleman and Kincaid (who has also not been nearly as dominant as many of us had hoped for out of his first 2 years) is that they are coming to a veteran team that has had a lot of success since 2019.  On good veteran teams rookies/young players don't usually come in and dominate.  They get some opportunities, but kind of have to know their place is to sit back listen and learn.  The coaches are not desperate for them to be thrown into the fire and lead the team.  And part of that also comes from good teams drafting later in each round.  So we are not drafting top 10 talented players.  Later picks usually will take longer to get to the level of being dominant.  

I wouldn’t say that it was underwhelming.  I followed a lot of the WR’s that season, and Keon was largely the player that draft analyst projected him to be.  There were a lot of times when he just couldn’t get any separation and he wasn’t a great route runner.  But he was able to make some big plays too.  
 

The one area that I wasn’t that impressed with was his ability to catch 50/50 balls.  He had a couple nice catches but also several other drops and this was supposed to be his speciality 

[LABILLBACKER]

11 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I just can't get there yet with him.  I see more like 600-700 yards with about 6 TD's.  I see him more as big chunk players a few times a game.  He will have a high YPC average I believe.

If he hits 700 / 6 tds I'd be ecstatic. He'll obviously never be a burner, but if he continues to put in the work on his route tree, he should hit 1000 / 8tds by year 3.

[corta765]

13 hours ago, JohnNord said:

From minicamp reports, it sounded like Josh was developing good chemistry with Palmer and Moore 

Tis what I heard. Moore I am holding my enthusiasm in check until I see him on roster week 1. I get the upside, but he has bounced around a bit which generally is not a good sign.

[SCBills]

16 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

Looking for  a two from him.

 Whos the One ?

Dont think we need a WR1, as long as these dudes become more clutch. 
 

We had Diggs in his prime and he dropped a perfectly thrown JA bomb in a crucial moment. 
 

Kincaid was drafted to be our Kelce, ends up being injured all year and drops a miracle throw from JA in yet another, crucial moment. 
 

We have an elite OL and an elite QB, with one of the best OL Coach/Run Game Coordinators in the league - Aaron Kromer.   We have an above average RB room with Cook, Davis and Johnson.   We have a solid TE room with Kincaid, Knox and the projection of what Hawes can be as a blocking TE.  
 

As for WR’s.. this group is better than last years, where Allen won MVP and we, yet again, lost a coin flip game against KC with some bad breaks and an injury riddled defense.   I think Coleman and Palmer have WR2 potential in this Offense.  Moore and Samuel WR3 potential.  And Shakir is an upper half of the league slot WR. 
 

This Offense should be elite, as long as Coleman, Palmer and Moore (at least somewhat) pan out. 
 

I don’t think Allen needs a WR1.   He just needs guys to be clutch when it matters. 
 

Hell, Gabe Davis, a WR3 at best, was a monster in our best chance yet to get to a Super Bowl.. and then the coaches and defense spazzed. 
 

This team, outside JA, needs the clutch gene and injury luck … a WR1 would be nice.. but I don’t that is what holds us back. 
 

 

Edited yesterday at 02:28 PM by SCBills

[Ralonzo]

On 6/16/2025 at 2:33 AM, BigDingus said:

Wait, THAT is optimistic?!

 

Xavier Worthy beat that last year as a rookie, as he had 59 receptions, 638 yards & 6 TDs. 

 

If it's "expecting too much" to expect Keon to out-perform the rookie numbers of a player we passed on in favor of him, that's just sad.

 

The role Coleman fills on THIS offense would not be filled by Worthy. X MUST block and block well (see: Davis, Gabriel and Hollins, Mack). While receiving is 1A, for the Bills, blocking on the outside is 1B. If Coleman can be 80% the blocker Hollins is while simultaneously being 80% the receiver Worthy is, that's much more important to this scheme than one OR the other.

 

People are also forgetting Coleman just turned 22, which is only a couple years older than Edmunds. Talking about him like he's reached his ceiling, I'm not on that train. I feel 75/25 that he surprises to the upside this year, especially if he gets a few more calls when DB's are pogey'ing his jersey that he didn't get as a rookie last year.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, corta765 said:

Tis what I heard. Moore I am holding my enthusiasm in check until I see him on roster week 1. I get the upside, but he has bounced around a bit which generally is not a good sign.

 

It's not just the lousy QBs he's played under (and they are... BAD), but also some fairly lousy coaching staffs.  He has a reputation as a malcontent due to some issues with the Jets coaching and management, and was benched for a half last year in Cleveland.  His contract pays less than the core STer's like sherfield and Hodge so from a risk perspective this is about as low as it gets.  

 

As a rookie and 2nd year player-

Robert Saleh - Defensive coordinator who failed as a Head Coach.  

Mike Lafleur - Not the good one, fired for hackett and back working under an experienced playcaller

Miles Austin - Inexperienced WR coach

 

QBs - Wilson, Flacco, White

 

With the Browns - 

Stefanski - Seems to be pretty meh so far, the only time the team has been competitive is when the defense was good.  2025 will be 3rd OC in 3 years.  He calls the plays but seems to scapegoat others.  Pretty sure he's only still employed because of cash-flow, as dorsey being fired resulted in the TE coach being promoted.

AVP - 1 out of 6 seasons as OC has the passing offense been top 20.  

Dorsey - Looks to be a product of allen vs. elevating the offense.

Chad O'shea - Long time patriot who's bounced around post-belichick.

 

QBs - Watson, Flacco, PJ Walker, Thompson-Robinson, Driskel, Winston, Zappe

 

 

Edited yesterday at 03:48 PM by Bleeding Bills Blue

[Mark Vader]

On 6/16/2025 at 7:34 AM, bmur66 said:

Expectations are James Lofton ish.

What brings you to this conclusion?

[corta765]

24 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

What brings you to this conclusion?

drugs lol

[3rdand12]

6 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

The role Coleman fills on THIS offense would not be filled by Worthy. X MUST block and block well (see: Davis, Gabriel and Hollins, Mack). While receiving is 1A, for the Bills, blocking on the outside is 1B. If Coleman can be 80% the blocker Hollins is while simultaneously being 80% the receiver Worthy is, that's much more important to this scheme than one OR the other.

 

People are also forgetting Coleman just turned 22, which is only a couple years older than Edmunds. Talking about him like he's reached his ceiling, I'm not on that train. I feel 75/25 that he surprises to the upside this year, especially if he gets a few more calls when DB's are pogey'ing his jersey that he didn't get as a rookie last year.

Please let us make NO comparisons to Edmunds and his age Ever again 

[NoSaint]

Call me crazy but I still think that Coleman was drafted to let Shakir walk and now our pass catching resource allocations are all kinds of messed up with a million slot guys, the leagues richest backup tight end and prayers Elijah Moore can get behind a corner occasionally 

 

if you gave beane truth serum I think the hope was Keon, Samuel and a higher end WR addition - see something like Devante, DK

 

but Keon hasn’t shown to be a real starter, and Samuel struggled and now that high end salary has to split between Palmer and Shakir to fill multiple roles.

[BADOLBILZ]

On 6/16/2025 at 7:45 PM, JohnNord said:

The one area that I wasn’t that impressed with was his ability to catch 50/50 balls.  He had a couple nice catches but also several other drops and this was supposed to be his speciality 

 

 

He wasn't good on 50/50 balls at Florida State.   It wasn't supposed to be his specialty.  

 

Coleman went from being perceived as a top 15 type pick in September/October to a day 2 guy by the end of the season because the separation and contested catch data was not good for him.    But the separation part got the lead in the media.   Then he ran a modest time at the combine so that became all anyone cared about.

 

His calling card was/is his athletic ability and the potential upside.   Division 1 basketball athleticism and body control.   But very raw.

[dayman]

I get as down as anyone when Keon doesn’t perform but he’s a rookie, late pick the the round and our offense is usually really damn good.

 

So I am happy rooting for the kid to have a solid career and anything else is gravy.  

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Call me crazy but I still think that Coleman was drafted to let Shakir walk and now our pass catching resource allocations are all kinds of messed up with a million slot guys, the leagues richest backup tight end and prayers Elijah Moore can get behind a corner occasionally 

 

if you gave beane truth serum I think the hope was Keon, Samuel and a higher end WR addition - see something like Devante, DK

 

but Keon hasn’t shown to be a real starter, and Samuel struggled and now that high end salary has to split between Palmer and Shakir to fill multiple roles.

I don’t agree, but the bottom line is that fan expectations of Keon are so high because the FO made them so high. 
 

If Keon was just another second round pick after 1 or 2 OTHER WRs, the expectations of him would be rotational player to starter.

 

Instead, Beane and co basically made him the only true egg in the basket. And that means that fans are not just going to expect a solid or okay player, but at least a very good or great player.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

On 6/15/2025 at 2:57 PM, stevestojan said:

This is his year to put up or literally shut up. 

 

Yup just like Brown's 2nd year and wasn't very good.  Need to dump him everyone here said.  What a mistake by Beane.  Oh wait!

[muppy]

On 6/15/2025 at 11:19 AM, JohnNord said:

Much of the discussion this offseason has been about Keon Coleman and the step forward he’ll need to take to become successful. In fact, Brandon Beane constructed the WR room with the expectation that Coleman would take on a bigger role.

 

I’ve seen fans with some pretty lofty expectations including comparisons to Tee Higgins or even calling him a future WR1. Personally, I think that bar is too high.

 

Yes, I do believe Coleman will improve from last season, but I’m expecting more of a modest jump rather than a breakout.

 

His draft position also matters here. Historically, receivers taken late in the 1st round to early 2nd, like Coleman, tend to have decent, not elite, careers. That includes guys like current Bills WR Elijah Moore.

 

Tim Graham recently dug into the numbers using TruMedia and looked at all WRs drafted between picks 28 and 35 since the NFL’s 2002 realignment. Here’s what he found (excluding newer guys like Coleman, Worthy, and McConkey who haven’t played enough yet):

 

Average game: 5 targets, 3 catches, 44 yards, 0.3 TDs

 

Average season: 13 games, 35 catches, 471 yards, 3 TDs

 

Average career: 77 games, 203 catches, 2,691 yards, 15 TDs

 

The top careers in that group belong to Jabar Gaffney, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks, Tee Higgins, and Michael Pittman. Even former Bills darling Kelvin Benjamin ranks in the top 10 for receptions and yards — meaning his career was actually above average for that draft slot.

 

So when you look at it, Coleman’s 2024 season already puts him close to the average for WRs taken in that range:

 

29 receptions, 556 yards, 4 TDs

 

There’s definitely room for growth but expecting him to become a dominant WR1 or a high level WR might be unrealistic.

 

That said, I’m optimistic we’ll see some improvement. Personally, I’m projecting:

 

2025 prediction: 38 receptions, 625 yards, 3 TDs

 

What about you? What are your expectations for Coleman this season?

 

greetings John. I saw the OP title and my first thought was IMO expectations ARE super high for the young man.

 

I will hold as opinion until proven otherwise that he has SKILLS that WILL be utilized in this offense.

 

But the truth is we are a FIERCE team with many weapons. who will be doing the majority of the scoring?

 

It's a total guess how that goes. The possibilities are near endless . I would love to see All the  offensive  guys flourish. I honestly don't care who gets it done. as long as someone does right? right.

 

Keon is a character and a half and first round draft pick. We all want him to be fierce and separate and score TD's.

 

that would not suck BRING IT

 

m

 

Edited 5 hours ago by muppy

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Yup just like Brown's 2nd year and wasn't very good.  Need to dump him everyone here said.  What a mistake by Beane.  Oh wait!

 

Pleased to say I did not say that on Spencer Brown. 

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Pleased to say I did not say that on Spencer Brown. 

 

 

Yeah @Ed_Formerly_of_Roch is very wrong saying that "everyone" wanted to dump Spencer Brown.    There was a vocal minority and if you over-value TSW takes just because they were started by moderators then perhaps you might think that way about Brown.    

 

The big difference is that RT isn't a premium position.   You can always cover your RT up with a TE or slide protections or a quick passing game.   Teams reach SB's with terrible RT's.   It happens.   

 

Much less likely to reach a SB without a couple excellent receiving threats.    Coleman entered the NFL raw and inexperienced with great athletic upside much like Brown but the stakes are higher with a 33rd overall pick at a premium position like WR than they are with a late 3rd round RT.

[Mark Vader]

On 6/16/2025 at 11:49 AM, SoonerBillsFan said:

Im gonna say Coleman tops 1000 yards this year. Who's with me?

 

I don't see it happening. Because of the additions of Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore, and the fact that Josh Allen loves to spread the ball around.