To my gamblers- Interesting odds change regarding where Diggs plays in 24

[Mr. WEO]

#crashandburnthread

[eball]

On 3/30/2024 at 7:29 PM, JerseyBills said:

 httpsnames://torotimes.com/posts/houston-texans-make-major-jump-in-stefon-diggs-next-team-odds-01ht5m9ag0r9

So I would never say never but we all know there's pretty much no chance Stef is traded , unless it's an offer Beane just can't refuse, but what I find interesting here are the odds on where Diggs starts in 2024 and as a gambler I'm likely going to put my $ where my mouth is because these odds are great and it's easy easy $.

 

From article - When DraftKings Sportsbook first released odds on Stefon Diggs’ next team in February, the Buffalo Bills were big favorites (-300) to retain the four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver while the Houston Texans were 10-to-1 to land to get him (or +1000).

 

For non gamblers you'd need to spend 300 to win 100 on Diggs staying in Buf and spend 10$ to win 100 if he landed in Hou.. 

 

Back to article - 

There’s been a shift in those odds over the last month with Houston jumping up the board, though the odds are still projecting a return to Buffalo. By March 18, DraftKings’ new odds had Buffalo as the favorite (-230) and Houston up to +550 - again as the third-favorite - behind the Dallas Cowboys (+400).

With the Cowboys being stagnant in free agency, they’ve dropped to +850 to land Diggs while Houston’s price has been bumped to +350 in the latest market shift. Those odds carry an implied probability of 22.22% that Houston would make a giant splash by giving quarterback C.J. Stroud an elite outside weapon next season. 

 

So now, big difference , you can now spend only 230 to win 100 for Diggs staying in Buff and Hou dropped all the way to +350, 👀👀 meaning instead of winning 100$ on a 10$ bet , now , a 10$ bet will only win you 35$ if Diggs landed on Houston. That's a MASSIVE DIFFERENCE 

 

Just caught my eye and very interesting to see the numbers move that significantly, especially towards Hou .  I know what I'm doing, I'm 100% putting 1150$ to win an easy 500$ on Diggs starting the season as a Buffalo Bill. Maybe much more. 

 

Just wanted to give my gamblers an easyyyy money maker that is Bills related!🤑

whoops

[Captain Caveman]

I hope you didn't bet off more than you could chew

On 4/1/2024 at 5:51 PM, JerseyBills said:

ya, I'm just saying it's easy $ for -230 to put on Diggs as a Bill, which is 99.9999% happening 

 

hmmmm

[Steve Billieve]

Alright op, you owe me $10, kindly dm and I'll give you my address.

[JerseyBills]

34 minutes ago, Steve Billieve said:

Alright op, you owe me $10, kindly dm and I'll give you my address.

gotcha lol

for the record i didn't bet it. probably would've at later date

[Pete]

On 4/1/2024 at 5:51 PM, JerseyBills said:

ya, I'm just saying it's easy $ for -230 to put on Diggs as a Bill, which is 99.9999% happening 

 

.00001 happened 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Steve Billieve said:

Alright op, you owe me $10, kindly dm and I'll give you my address.

 

 

[Bad Things]

$$$$ Easy Money!!  $$$$

[JerseyBills]

8 minutes ago, Bad Things said:

$$$$ Easy Money!!  $$$$

I'm taking the L on the chin. Crazy timing! 

Salute to the author though for picking up on the odds movement 

The more I think about it, the smart play would've been Hou.

Rarely do you see this type of line go from +1000 to +350. 

[Billy Claude]

These prop bets are where the fixes will occur not the league dictating who will win. All you have to do is get to one guy.  Jontay Porter has already been caught in the NBA and its only a matter of time before someone is caught in the NFL.

[papazoid]

On 3/30/2024 at 7:29 PM, JerseyBills said:

 httpsnames://torotimes.com/posts/houston-texans-make-major-jump-in-stefon-diggs-next-team-odds-01ht5m9ag0r9

So I would never say never but we all know there's pretty much no chance Stef is traded , unless it's an offer Beane just can't refuse, but what I find interesting here are the odds on where Diggs starts in 2024 and as a gambler I'm likely going to put my $ where my mouth is because these odds are great and it's easy easy $.

 

From article - When DraftKings Sportsbook first released odds on Stefon Diggs’ next team in February, the Buffalo Bills were big favorites (-300) to retain the four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver while the Houston Texans were 10-to-1 to land to get him (or +1000).

 

For non gamblers you'd need to spend 300 to win 100 on Diggs staying in Buf and spend 10$ to win 100 if he landed in Hou.. 

 

Back to article - 

There’s been a shift in those odds over the last month with Houston jumping up the board, though the odds are still projecting a return to Buffalo. By March 18, DraftKings’ new odds had Buffalo as the favorite (-230) and Houston up to +550 - again as the third-favorite - behind the Dallas Cowboys (+400).

With the Cowboys being stagnant in free agency, they’ve dropped to +850 to land Diggs while Houston’s price has been bumped to +350 in the latest market shift. Those odds carry an implied probability of 22.22% that Houston would make a giant splash by giving quarterback C.J. Stroud an elite outside weapon next season. 

 

So now, big difference , you can now spend only 230 to win 100 for Diggs staying in Buff and Hou dropped all the way to +350, 👀👀 meaning instead of winning 100$ on a 10$ bet , now , a 10$ bet will only win you 35$ if Diggs landed on Houston. That's a MASSIVE DIFFERENCE 

 

Just caught my eye and very interesting to see the numbers move that significantly, especially towards Hou .  I know what I'm doing, I'm 100% putting 1150$ to win an easy 500$ on Diggs starting the season as a Buffalo Bill. Maybe much more. 

 

Just wanted to give my gamblers an easyyyy money maker that is Bills related!🤑

 

kudos for uncovering the shift to houston

 

if im reading this right....you ignored your scoop and bet buffalo.....bummer....lol

[JerseyBills]

1 minute ago, papazoid said:

 

kudos for uncovering the shift to houston

 

if im reading this right....you ignored your scoop and bet buffalo.....bummer....lol

i actually didn't bet this but would have at some point in the off season 

 

And thanks, ya it's super rare to see that type of line change, especially when there was nobody truly believed they'd move Diggs with that dead cap

Edited April 3 by JerseyBills

[zevo]

3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

gotcha lol

for the record i didn't bet it. probably would've at later date

so you didn't bet it but were trying lead people to believe this was a no lose bet? 🤔

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

On 3/30/2024 at 7:57 PM, BillsFanForever19 said:

Oh yay - another Diggs trade thread. Joy. 

 

If Diggs were to be or will be traded (which was/is very unlikely) - it would have happened before 3/17 and now it wouldn't happen until after 6/1. 

 

Beane's not locking in his 18.5m salary (which was guaranteed on 3/17) first before moving him or taking on a full 31m Dead Cap hit all at once (which is what it would be to do it post 3/17 and before 6/1).

 

I'd be EXTREMELY surprised if it were to happen even after 6/1 and before next season - as, capped or not, I don't see Beane making Pegula dish out an 18.5m dollar check for a player that won't be here. 

Well said 😆 

[JerseyBills]

12 minutes ago, zevo said:

so you didn't bet it but were trying lead people to believe this was a no lose bet? 🤔

Technically I guess you're right, I mean as a gambler I just thought this was a sure thing for other gamblers and was just interesting in general because it involved our #1 WR

Definitely don't advocate anyone gambling unless they know what they're doing

 

Edited April 3 by JerseyBills

[Einstein's Dog]

58 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

i actually didn't bet this but would have at some point in the off season 

 

And thanks, ya it's super rare to see that type of line change, especially when there was nobody truly believed they'd move Diggs with that dead cap

I'm glad I didn't bet this either.  I was talking myself into Dallas and felt I needed to do it before the draft. 

 

I'm surprised Dallas didn't beat Houston's offer.   For their first round pick they could have had Diggs.  That would have sent the media buzzing.   Cee Dee plus Diggs.  I don't know how Dallas is going to get the hype J Jones craves.  Plus they're setting up McCarthy and Dak very poorly for a key season for both.

[NORWOODS FOOT]

Money is NEVER easy… hahaha

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

Well said 😆 

 

Chowing down on crow like 

 

Edited April 3 by BillsFanForever19

[GASabresIUFan]

On 3/31/2024 at 10:07 AM, GASabresIUFan said:

I don’t know anything about gambling, but this sounds like Draft Kings has heard and verified trade talks between Buffalo and Houston.  

I guess Draft Kings got wind of the deal before the media did.

 

I hope you didn't make the Diggs staying in Buffalo bet.  More proof why I don't gamble.

[Billy Claude]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I guess Draft Kings got wind of the deal before the media did.

 

I hope you didn't make the Diggs staying in Buffalo bet.  More proof why I don't gamble.

I don't think DraftKing got wind of it. More likely it was someone in the know telling their friends, and all of them making big bets on Diggs leaving. It was all insider trading

[billsfan714]

I just love reading all the Diggs isnt going anywhere posts...hilarious....just like the easy money bet on he's staying.  

[billsfan714]

On 3/30/2024 at 7:29 PM, JerseyBills said:

 httpsnames://torotimes.com/posts/houston-texans-make-major-jump-in-stefon-diggs-next-team-odds-01ht5m9ag0r9

So I would never say never but we all know there's pretty much no chance Stef is traded , unless it's an offer Beane just can't refuse, but what I find interesting here are the odds on where Diggs starts in 2024 and as a gambler I'm likely going to put my $ where my mouth is because these odds are great and it's easy easy $.

 

From article - When DraftKings Sportsbook first released odds on Stefon Diggs’ next team in February, the Buffalo Bills were big favorites (-300) to retain the four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver while the Houston Texans were 10-to-1 to land to get him (or +1000).

 

For non gamblers you'd need to spend 300 to win 100 on Diggs staying in Buf and spend 10$ to win 100 if he landed in Hou.. 

 

Back to article - 

There’s been a shift in those odds over the last month with Houston jumping up the board, though the odds are still projecting a return to Buffalo. By March 18, DraftKings’ new odds had Buffalo as the favorite (-230) and Houston up to +550 - again as the third-favorite - behind the Dallas Cowboys (+400).

With the Cowboys being stagnant in free agency, they’ve dropped to +850 to land Diggs while Houston’s price has been bumped to +350 in the latest market shift. Those odds carry an implied probability of 22.22% that Houston would make a giant splash by giving quarterback C.J. Stroud an elite outside weapon next season. 

 

So now, big difference , you can now spend only 230 to win 100 for Diggs staying in Buff and Hou dropped all the way to +350, 👀👀 meaning instead of winning 100$ on a 10$ bet , now , a 10$ bet will only win you 35$ if Diggs landed on Houston. That's a MASSIVE DIFFERENCE 

 

Just caught my eye and very interesting to see the numbers move that significantly, especially towards Hou .  I know what I'm doing, I'm 100% putting 1150$ to win an easy 500$ on Diggs starting the season as a Buffalo Bill. Maybe much more. 

 

Just wanted to give my gamblers an easyyyy money maker that is Bills related!🤑

 

Edit- For the record I didn't put any $ on this but definitely would have at some point in off season. 

Also, don't gamble unless you have a great system and are doing tons of research or if you follow someone that has a stellar betting record, they're rare but they do exist

Obviously, you know what you're doing.  SMH

[JerseyBills]

49 minutes ago, billsfan714 said:

Obviously, you know what you're doing.  SMH

lol i mean you can't win em all. I'm currently at 73% for 2024..

Just straight bets,  occasionally a parlay but only 1/10th of what I bet on straights

55 minutes ago, billsfan714 said:

I just love reading all the Diggs isnt going anywhere posts...hilarious....just like the easy money bet on he's staying.  

I mean it was pretty shocking.  Nobody thought we'd trade him this year cause of dead $ but looking back, we'd likely never get that type of compensation and under Brady we realized we could win without him..But hindsight is 20/20

Don't recall seeing anyone predicting we move him this offseason 

Edited April 5 by JerseyBills

[transient]

2 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

 

I mean it was pretty shocking.  Nobody thought we'd trade him this year cause of dead $ but looking back, we'd likely never get that type of compensation and under Brady we realized we could win without him..But hindsight is 20/20

We didn’t win without him, we won without him producing. Big difference. What’s Shakir gonna look like drawing the coverages Diggs got? Gabe couldn’t handle the jump from 3 to 2 WITH Diggs. Gonna be interesting without him.