Anyone else feeling pretty good with the Bills?

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

John Brown. Cole Beasley.

 

You nailed them.  Beasley, he's the only one with a pronounced increase however.  

 

Brown, not so much although it's debatable.  Improved, yes, but to suggest that it was significant in his case may be a bit of a reach.  His two best seasons, one here ('19), one in Arizona ('15), were all but carbon copies of one another.  

 

In AZ he posted 1,003 yards and 7 TDS, here he had 1,060 yards and 6 TDs.  

 

On a per start basis, here vs. elsewhere, he averaged marginally more, but not significantly more.  If we applied the same percentage increase to Samuel, Samuel would go from being about a 500 yard & 3 TD WR to a 700 yard and 4 TD WR.  Not much more.  We'll need more than that from somewhere.  

 

Otherwise, and thanks for answering, but if those are the only two examples, that's pretty much the point.  Consider all of the other WRs that we've picked up that have done nothing, or even worse than they've done elsewhere.  

 

It's hardly a guarantee either.  Everyone's saying the exact same things about Samuel that they said about Harty last year.  It's typical.  

 

 

8 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Do you actually think Gabe would have the same results playing with some of the below average QBs Samuel has played with? 

 

Is that the point that I've been making?  

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

10 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, if Diggs is really finished like everyone here assumes, we'd better have an answer better than Samuel or yes, that's exactly where we're headed.  Allen was down about 20% as it was this season from prior years.  

 

Hopefully we draft a WR in round 1.  Also, I'm not on the train claiming that Diggs is finished.  IMO it's how he's used.  In fact, someone posted a piece recently, forget where, it may have been linked on the front page, that Diggs was used in slot nearly 50% of the time.  If that's true, and there's no reason to consider the guy's research false, then that would certainly explain the dropoff in production from Diggs.  

 

Complimentary Football as McD likes to call it.  

 

We can expect Kincaid to pick up some of the slack though, but he's not a WR.  

 

 

 

I find it hard to believe Allen goes from 37 to 36 to 35 to 29 and then 25 passing TD's. This for a QB who has four straight seasons of 40+ total TD's. The Bills offense is still moving the ball (4th in total yards) and scoring too (6th in points). They had 451 points scored. Only a slight dip from '22 and '21 at 455 and 483 points scored. If the Bills are still moving the ball someone is going to be scoring. It was likely an anomaly that Allen had 15 rushing TD's this last year. Expect a return to less than 10 rushing TD's and more than 30 passing TD's. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

3 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 
Agreed, Guns. I will say this, a few weeks ago we were 52 million over the cap and we had some guys…guys that we love, but guys that were pricey and let’s say it, getting old.

 

Now we are under, signing some pieces, albeit not stellar, that shore us up, and we still have a fantastic core on both sides of the ball.

 

Will we win the division? I hope so.  However, will we be in the the playoffs? Yes.

 

I will roll with this team and I am looking forward to the future, optimistic for 24, fired up for 25.

 

Go Bills!

 

@NoHuddleKelly12

 

Donuts, free round of a baker’s dozen for all—I’ll take a jelly-filled glazed if you please! That will pair nicely with my surging optimism and fortify my mood against Debbie downer threads that believe the Jets have overtaken us for the division. Here’s to our successful franchise reboot and shocking the world in 2025. Suck on that Mr. Nick Never-Wright! 

[BananaB]

23 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

You nailed them.  Beasley, he's the only one with a pronounced increase however.  

 

Brown, not so much although it's debatable.  Improved, yes, but to suggest that it was significant in his case may be a bit of a reach.  His two best seasons, one here ('19), one in Arizona ('15), were all but carbon copies of one another.  

 

In AZ he posted 1,003 yards and 7 TDS, here he had 1,060 yards and 6 TDs.  

 

On a per start basis, here vs. elsewhere, he averaged marginally more, but not significantly more.  If we applied the same percentage increase to Samuel, Samuel would go from being about a 500 yard & 3 TD WR to a 700 yard and 4 TD WR.  Not much more.  We'll need more than that from somewhere.  

 

Otherwise, and thanks for answering, but if those are the only two examples, that's pretty much the point.  Consider all of the other WRs that we've picked up that have done nothing, or even worse than they've done elsewhere.  

 

It's hardly a guarantee either.  Everyone's saying the exact same things about Samuel that they said about Harty last year.  It's typical.  

 

 

 

Is that the point that I've been making?  

 

 

You keep going on about the TD stats and having a good QB makes a big difference 

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I find it hard to believe Allen goes from 37 to 36 to 35 to 29 and then 25 passing TD's. This for a QB who has four straight seasons of 40+ total TD's. The Bills offense is still moving the ball (4th in total yards) and scoring too (6th in points). They had 451 points scored. Only a slight dip from '22 and '21 at 455 and 483 points scored. If the Bills are still moving the ball someone is going to be scoring. It was likely an anomaly that Allen had 15 rushing TD's this last year. Expect a return to less than 10 rushing TD's and more than 30 passing TD's. 

 

I found it difficult to believe that he was below 30 this season.  I'd have wagered a grand prior to the season on 30+.  

 

As a team, our offensive scoring was slightly less under Brady.  Under Brady, our offensive scoring would have been good for 8th in the league on average using his 7 games in the regular season.  That's underachievement.  Over the last three games of the season we averaged fewer than 20 ppg.  Much as with Dorsey over the first four games of the season, we came out swinging, sort of, against the Jets, Eagles, and Cowboys, 

 

Now our biggest scoring WR is gone, we still have no #2 of the caliber that everyone's claiming we need.  Diggs, apparently, is in decline.  Why, at this point and things unchanged, would our scoring be better than it was last season?   Who knows, maybe we'll be #1 in scoring this season.  Right now things don't seem to be aligning in that way however.  

 

 

1 minute ago, BananaB said:

You keep going on about the TD stats and having a good QB makes a big difference 

 

OK, then why haven't any of the other WRs that we've picked up since Allen's been here improved as such?  

 

Seriously, why not?  

 

 

[BananaB]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I found it difficult to believe that he was below 30 this season.  I'd have wagered a grand prior to the season on 30+.  

 

As a team, our offensive scoring was slightly less under Brady.  Under Brady, our offensive scoring would have been good for 8th in the league on average using his 7 games in the regular season.  That's underachievement.  Over the last three games of the season we averaged fewer than 20 ppg.  Much as with Dorsey over the first four games of the season, we came out swinging, sort of, against the Jets, Eagles, and Cowboys, 

 

Now our biggest scoring WR is gone, we still have no #2 of the caliber that everyone's claiming we need.  Diggs, apparently, is in decline.  Why, at this point and things unchanged, would our scoring be better than it was last season?   Who knows, maybe we'll be #1 in scoring this season.  Right now things don't seem to be aligning in that way however.  

 

 

 

OK, then why haven't any of the other WRs that we've picked up since Allen's been here improved as such?  

 

Seriously, why not?  

 

 

Beasley, Brown and Diggs have all had the best years of their career with Allen. What are you talking about? 

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Beasley, Brown and Diggs have all had the best years of their career with Allen. What are you talking about? 

 

If you want to join in, I'd highly suggest reading what I wrote to start this first.  

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

I found it difficult to believe that he was below 30 this season.  I'd have wagered a grand prior to the season on 30+.  

 

As a team, our offensive scoring was slightly less under Brady.  Under Brady, our offensive scoring would have been good for 8th in the league on average using his 7 games in the regular season.  That's underachievement.  Over the last three games of the season we averaged fewer than 20 ppg.  Much as with Dorsey over the first four games of the season, we came out swinging, sort of, against the Jets, Eagles, and Cowboys, 

 

 

 

I also would not have wagered a grand on 15 rushing TD's though either. Doesn't really matter how we score points. Just that we score. Bills continue to score at a high rate. 

 

To counter the ppg under Brady, offensive scoring was up in the two post season games. 27.5 ppg vs. 26.5 on the regular season total and significantly greater than the 20ppg in the final three regular season games. Brady also took over in the second half of the season when the weather is not typically as conducive to higher scoring games. Although, less than a factor this past season with late season road games in Miami and LA. Bills still faced tough Chief and Patriot defenses in December. 

[BananaB]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

If you want to join in, I'd highly suggest reading what I wrote to start this first.  

 

 

Brady took over mid season, I think he surpassed his expectations. He got more players involved in the O and it wasn’t just dependent on Diggs and Gabe. I expect more this season. And considering Gabe was a ghost in his offense I’m even more happy the Bills didn’t pay him.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

13 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

OK, then why haven't any of the other WRs that we've picked up since Allen's been here improved as such?  

 

Seriously, why not?  

 

 

 

Serious question. Just how many do you expect to improve? 

 

Diggs and Beasely improved greatly. Brown had one of his best seasons. That's 3. Is there a problem that the number is only 3? I mean Diggs has been one of the best wr's in the league the last 4 seasons on average. Beasley was an all-pro. There's not going to be a ton of opportunity for other pass catchers when you had those two plus home grown Gabe Davis taking the lions share of the targets. 

 

Crowder, Sherfield, Sanders and Harty did not have career seasons. I'm not sure there is anything wrong with that given the target shares that Diggs, Beasley and Davis and throw in a rookie first round draft pick in Kincaid took away from those four players. 

 

Nothing wrong with 3 at all IMO. 

[Beck Water]

On 3/22/2024 at 6:40 PM, SoonerBillsFan said:

Heading into the draft, I feel pretty good about the Bills.  The only thing lacking is a pash rush from the front 4.  I am concerned Groot has had a couple seasons now and needs to step up and be a 10+ sack guy.  I don't like depending so much on Von. Other than that I feel all the other positions are solid. 

 

Depending on who is there at 28, I am tempted to move down, possibly with Carolina who may want to move back into the 1st. Possibly Washington as well to get a 3rd round pick.   Maybe use a 4th and 5th( or 6th) to move up in the 2nd.

 

WR is still #1 on my list followed by DL.  Safety in the 4th, along with just BPA from there on out.

 

How are you guys feeling about a month out from the draft?

 

I guess I'd summarize my feelings as "cautiously optimistic", but I really won't know what to think until after the draft.

 

Given how far over the cap we were heading into the season, I've been cautiously by the moves that have been made.  I was afraid loyalty would win over Cold Hard Football Facts with regard to Poyer and to choosing between Rasul Douglas and Tre White.  I like Curtis Samuel as a FA signing far more than Deonte Harty, which was a big dice-roll to me last season.  I expected "OMG Swiss Cheese Everywhere on Defense", and I think Beane has done a good strategic job at filling holes.  Speaking of Harty, I was also pleased that Beane acknowledged the failure of the Harty and Nyheim Hines moves and cut line.  (Sometimes GMs fall in love with their own work and lobby for more chances and time)

 

Assuming Milano comes back somewhere near himself and Von Miller at least improves to decent, the front 7 on our defense looks OK.  The biggest gap is at DE, where we lost the team leader on sacks in Floyd (10.5).  Are we counting on Epenesa and Rousseau to step up?  And, we definitely need depth at DE.

 

As far as DB, we have Johnson, Douglas, and Benford back which were our best DB, but Elam is still a big question mark.  Speaking of questionmark, I think Edwards looks like the sort of signing they made when they acquired Poyer and Hyde in 2017, but I don't trust Rapp as the other pairing there, and again, we need depth.  But I don't think a lot of fans appreciate how far Hyde and Poyer had declined last season.  They still had all the smarts, but not the range.

 

So on defense: questions at DE, need depth at DT; questions at safety and need depth at DB.

 

On offense, I consider center a giant (6'6", see what I did there?) questionmark.  McGovern really hasn't played center on the regular in the NFL and acknowledges where he did, it was with a different blocking technique.  And, if the coaches thought Edwards was a better LG than McGovern, it follows they would have started him at LG last season - so I feel that we've downgraded at LG, potentially at LG and C (we'll see).  We definitely need depth at IOL and tackle, and IMHO we need a RT to develop behind Brown.  I still feel we cover for him in pass plays with a TE or 6th OLman.  I am under-impressed by the Clapp signing, other than it does give us a guy who has actually taken substantial Center snaps in the NFL as an option but that 3.75 RAS score has me SMH.

 

I like the Curtis Samuel signing, but I still feel we need a boundary receiver.

 

On ST, wtf was wrong with Bass and can he recover?  And it's concerning that we signed Haack, while Martin's salary is guaranteed.  As far as ST goes, I was actually surprised at how solid the core was.  I felt it was kind of a global reset, losing Neal, Dodson, Matekavich, and Sherfield and with Rapp possibly playing more defensive snaps and fewer ST.  But when I looked at the ST snaps, Gilliam, Cam Lewis, Q Morris, and Dorian Williams are all still here, and we've signed good ST contributors in Mack Hollins and Nick Morrow.  So I feel better about the ST core than I thought I would at this point.

I understand the people who feel the current team is weaker, but I wonder how they felt in 2021, when the Bills were basically trying to "run it back" with the same cast?  Sometimes that works, and sometimes it doesn't, and in 2021 it fell short.  I think that Beane has overall done a good job dealing the cards he had, but we are going into the draft Needing a couple picks to step up and pan out, and Needing a couple guys currently on the roster to level-up for the Bills to be more competitive.

 

And of course, the biggest unknown on the Bills, is Joe Brady and his QB coach acolyte Ronald Curry.  It *looked* as though Allen was more comfortable with Brady last season, but how well Curry will work with him is a big unknown

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PBF81]

16 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I also would not have wagered a grand on 15 rushing TD's though either. Doesn't really matter how we score points. Just that we score. Bills continue to score at a high rate. 

 

To counter the ppg under Brady, offensive scoring was up in the two post season games. 27.5 ppg vs. 26.5 on the regular season total and significantly greater than the 20ppg in the final three regular season games. Brady also took over in the second half of the season when the weather is not typically as conducive to higher scoring games. Although, less than a factor this past season with late season road games in Miami and LA. Bills still faced tough Chief and Patriot defenses in December. 

 

We'll see what this season brings.  Hopefully Samuel will be the 1,000 yard 8 TD WR that people seem to believe he will be.  

 

BTW, I certainly wouldn't have wagered against 15 rushing TDs either.   Cook isn't a goal-line RB and doesn't even carry the ball on 3rd-downs.  

 

 

12 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Brady took over mid season, I think he surpassed his expectations. He got more players involved in the O and it wasn’t just dependent on Diggs and Gabe. I expect more this season. And considering Gabe was a ghost in his offense I’m even more happy the Bills didn’t pay him.

 

Great!  We can all look forward to Samuel being the difference this season then.  Looking forward to it.    

 

 

[BananaB]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

We'll see what this season brings.  Hopefully Samuel will be the 1,000 yard 8 TD WR that people seem to believe he will be.  

 

BTW, I certainly wouldn't have wagered against 15 rushing TDs either.   Cook isn't a goal-line RB and doesn't even carry the ball on 3rd-downs.  

 

 

 

Great!  We can all look forward to Samuel being the difference this season then.  Looking forward to it.    

 

 

The off-season ain’t over yet Bud. There still is this thing called the draft that they can possibly get another contributor. Either way, Brady’s offense helped us have a huge winning streak over the toughest part of their schedule. During that run Gabe had 4 games without a catch 🤷🏼‍♂️

Edited March 24 by BananaB

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

You nailed them.  Beasley, he's the only one with a pronounced increase however.  

 

Brown, not so much although it's debatable.  Improved, yes, but to suggest that it was significant in his case may be a bit of a reach.  His two best seasons, one here ('19), one in Arizona ('15), were all but carbon copies of one another.  

 

In AZ he posted 1,003 yards and 7 TDS, here he had 1,060 yards and 6 TDs.  

 

On a per start basis, here vs. elsewhere, he averaged marginally more, but not significantly more.  If we applied the same percentage increase to Samuel, Samuel would go from being about a 500 yard & 3 TD WR to a 700 yard and 4 TD WR.  Not much more.  We'll need more than that from somewhere.  

 

Otherwise, and thanks for answering, but if those are the only two examples, that's pretty much the point.  Consider all of the other WRs that we've picked up that have done nothing, or even worse than they've done elsewhere.  

 

It's hardly a guarantee either.  Everyone's saying the exact same things about Samuel that they said about Harty last year.  It's typical.  

 

 

 

Is that the point that I've been making?  

 

 

The other receivers we have picked up have been bottom of the barrel trash. That’s the real problem. 

[KOKBILLS]

On 3/22/2024 at 7:40 PM, SoonerBillsFan said:

Heading into the draft, I feel pretty good about the Bills.  The only thing lacking is a pash rush from the front 4.  I am concerned Groot has had a couple seasons now and needs to step up and be a 10+ sack guy.  I don't like depending so much on Von. Other than that I feel all the other positions are solid. 

 

Depending on who is there at 28, I am tempted to move down, possibly with Carolina who may want to move back into the 1st. Possibly Washington as well to get a 3rd round pick.   Maybe use a 4th and 5th( or 6th) to move up in the 2nd.

 

WR is still #1 on my list followed by DL.  Safety in the 4th, along with just BPA from there on out.

 

How are you guys feeling about a month out from the draft?

 

Always feeling pretty good...

 

One reason...

 

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Serious question. Just how many do you expect to improve? 

 

Well, considering that I'm not the one, among many, arguing that simply because a WR comes here that his numbers (aka TDs) will increase to the point of replacing a WR that averaged 7 TDs/season on an average of 5 targets/game, my answer would be that it depends upon the WR.  

 

Which gets us back to the initial points of the discussion, at least insofar as I brought up.  Thinking that a WR that's averaged about 500 yards and 3 TDs/season without any particular propensity for the end zone, is all of a sudden out of the blue going to do much more than provide #3 WR production here is not an argument that I'm making.  

 

If people want to argue contrarily, great.  I guess that's why we're here.  We'll see how it plays out, but most WRs that have come here have not done that, namely significantly increased their production.  Naming only one that has significantly, and another that has, only marginally despite the lack of competition for his role in the #1 spot, doesn't seem like a strong argument.  

 

 

5 minutes ago, BananaB said:

The off-season ain’t over yet Bud. There still is this thing called the draft that they can possibly get another contributor. Either way, Brady’s offense helped us have a huge winning streak over the toughest part of their schedule. During that run Gabe had 4 games without a catch 🤷🏼‍♂️

 

Hence my comments stating given the present situation.  

 

Once again, let's hope that we draft a WR in round 1.  

 

 

[BananaB]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, considering that I'm not the one, among many, arguing that simply because a WR comes here that his numbers (aka TDs) will increase to the point of replacing a WR that averaged 7 TDs/season on an average of 5 targets/game, my answer would be that it depends upon the WR.  

 

Which gets us back to the initial points of the discussion, at least insofar as I brought up.  Thinking that a WR that's averaged about 500 yards and 3 TDs/season without any particular propensity for the end zone, is all of a sudden out of the blue going to do much more than provide #3 WR production here is not an argument that I'm making.  

 

If people want to argue contrarily, great.  I guess that's why we're here.  We'll see how it plays out, but most WRs that have come here have not done that, namely significantly increased their production.  Naming only one that has significantly, and another that has, only marginally despite the lack of competition for his role in the #1 spot, doesn't seem like a strong argument.  

 

 

 

Hence my comments stating given the present situation.  

 

Once again, let's hope that we draft a WR in round 1.  

 

 

Yeah cause 0 catches in 4 out 6 games is hard to duplicate 

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The other receivers we have picked up have been bottom of the barrel trash. That’s the real problem. 

 

LOL, funny, no one said that Hasty was trash last season.  I do recall making a similar argument regarding Hasty, and was slammed similarly about this time last year.  

 

Look, Samuel may end up with 1,200 yards and a dozen TDs, who knows.  But there's nothing historically to suggest that merely switching QBs for a WR of his caliber is going to propel him statistically the way that people seem to believe will happen.  

 

Let's be real about Samuel.  He's a WR that in seven seasons has amassed 3,383 yards on 10.7 yards-per-catch and 22 TDs.  

 

Sure, he has greater potential, but likely not as the #2 that everyone wants.  

 

 

[GoBills808]

24 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL, funny, no one said that Hasty was trash last season.  I do recall making a similar argument regarding Hasty, and was slammed similarly about this time last year.  

 

Look, Samuel may end up with 1,200 yards and a dozen TDs, who knows.  But there's nothing historically to suggest that merely switching QBs for a WR of his caliber is going to propel him statistically the way that people seem to believe will happen.  

 

Let's be real about Samuel.  He's a WR that in seven seasons has amassed 3,383 yards on 10.7 yards-per-catch and 22 TDs.  

 

Sure, he has greater potential, but likely not as the #2 that everyone wants.  

 

 

I don't think Samuel is here to replace Davis on a 1-for-1 target share

 

And I wouldn't pencil him in as the WR2 immediately, I am hopeful they draft a first round guy and have a legit competition for that spot

 

As you say they have much different profiles/skillsets

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

38 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, considering that I'm not the one, among many, arguing that simply because a WR comes here that his numbers (aka TDs) will increase to the point of replacing a WR that averaged 7 TDs/season on an average of 5 targets/game, my answer would be that it depends upon the WR.  

 

Which gets us back to the initial points of the discussion, at least insofar as I brought up.  Thinking that a WR that's averaged about 500 yards and 3 TDs/season without any particular propensity for the end zone, is all of a sudden out of the blue going to do much more than provide #3 WR production here is not an argument that I'm making.  

 

If people want to argue contrarily, great.  I guess that's why we're here.  We'll see how it plays out, but most WRs that have come here have not done that, namely significantly increased their production.  Naming only one that has significantly, and another that has, only marginally despite the lack of competition for his role in the #1 spot, doesn't seem like a strong argument.  

my point is that I would expect increased production out of both Shakir and Kincaid over any free agent  signings. Our own in house draft picks is where we should at first expect Davis stats to go to. Some will go to Samuel. 
 

 

[PBF81]

44 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

my point is that I would expect increased production out of both Shakir and Kincaid over any free agent  signings. Our own in house draft picks is where we should at first expect Davis stats to go to. Some will go to Samuel. 
 

 

Yeah, that's the hope.  We'll see.  

 

Diggs had 8 TDs, Davis had 7 TDs, and no other WR or TE on the team had more than 2.  Cook had 4.  If it's true that Diggs' is "slowing down" or however people want to put it, then we may not even be able to count on TD production from him either.  He certainly hasn't shown up in that regard for most of our playoff games that he's been in already.  Our TEs haven't changed, so that remains stable.  

 

It'd be nice to have a proven TD producer in our WR corps.  Besides Diggs we do not have that.   As of now, the only WRs on the team that have caught much of anything for us from Allen are Diggs and Shakir.  Shorter will hopefully be good.  He's a wild-card of sorts.  

 

It's our "Complimentary Football" aspect that concerns me in that regard.  That and why Diggs was operating from the slot under Brady far more than he did to date on our team otherwise, which IMO is a big reason for his "decline."  But what do I know.  LOL  

 

 

Edited March 24 by PBF81

[FireChans]

On 3/15/2023 at 9:54 AM, Dablitzkrieg said:

This dude got $5 mill guaranteed?

 

On 3/15/2023 at 9:54 AM, Warriorspikes51 said:

Why? 

 

On 3/15/2023 at 9:56 AM, Brandon said:

 

 I guess I'll have to trust the scouting department on this one,  but still...yikes. 

 

On 3/15/2023 at 9:57 AM, DJB said:

Woah seems overpaid yikes

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:00 AM, TOboy said:

Like the player, don’t love the price. Would love to be proven wrong this season. 

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:06 AM, McBean said:

Wtf

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:10 AM, Hebert19 said:

Wtf are we doing.  We literally have 4 of these guys on roster now and we never use them.  

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:11 AM, 78thealltimegreat said:

Well Josh there’s your big free agent acquisition. Now don’t mind Beane while he drafts a couple more tweener defensive ends. 

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:17 AM, Chuck Wagon said:

Stupid move. 

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:20 AM, Chicken Boo said:

Yawn.  He'll return kicks and punts and be lucky to see 30 receptions on the year.  

 

Not an indictment of his talent, but of this staff.  

 

On 3/15/2023 at 10:43 AM, FlaFitz1 said:

This has be an early April Fools joke.  

 

Averaged 0.5 catches and 3.25 yards per game last year

 

Over 4 seasons played in 40 out of 66 possible games, started only 4, caught all of 64 balls for 793 yards, 8.9 avg and a whole 4 TDs?  That averages out to 10 games per season, 1 start, 1.6 catches and 19.8 yards per games and a whole TD a year?   Plus 15 carries for 123 yards and 0 TDs and 9 fumbles?

 

Sign a 5'6" unproductive player for 2 years $13.5 million max with $5 million guaranteed?   An average of $6.75 per year?   What a waste of resources!!!

 

 

McKenzie, who is 2" taller, over the same time frame played in 61 out of 66 possible games, started 25 of them, caught 119 balls for 1137 yards, 9.6 avg, 11 TDs.  Running 36 times for 160 yards 2 TDs and 2 Fumbles.  Not to mention he's in the 2nd year of a 2 year $4.4 million deal - that had only $1.25 million guaranteed.  This year has a base of $1.75 million plus workout and roster bonuses worth $467,647

 

If this signing is real...   WOW!!  UGH!!!

 

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL, funny, no one said that Hasty was trash last season.  I do recall making a similar argument regarding Hasty, and was slammed similarly about this time last year.  

 

Look, Samuel may end up with 1,200 yards and a dozen TDs, who knows.  But there's nothing historically to suggest that merely switching QBs for a WR of his caliber is going to propel him statistically the way that people seem to believe will happen.  

 

Let's be real about Samuel.  He's a WR that in seven seasons has amassed 3,383 yards on 10.7 yards-per-catch and 22 TDs.  

 

Sure, he has greater potential, but likely not as the #2 that everyone wants.  

 

 

I find it very funny when folks say things like this, when there's a mountain of evidence that suggest otherwise.

 

Samuel IMO is an upgrade over trash like Harty and Trent. Harty was an overpaid gadget KR guy, and Trent was trash making 800k a year as a vet minumum. In the last 4 seasons, including the year he barely played, he outproduced both of their entire careers COMBINED.

 

He can and likely will far outproduce their meager contributions. Asking him to replace both of them and Gabe IMO is a mistake. They need a rookie WR on the boundary. Diggs + rookie + Shakir + Samuel has a chance to be a much better unit than Diggs + Gabe _ Harty + Sherfield.

[Freddie's Dead]

Not me.

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, BananaB said:

Has any WR on the Bills had as many targets as Gabe the past 4 years besides Steph? 
How many drooped passes has he had compared to any other player over 4 years? How many INTs when he was targeted over the past 4 years? How many miscommunications with Allen? 
 

Dude is just a very inconsistent player. He’s made a lot of big plays for the Bills, but there is also a lot of negative plays. We need an upgrade at #2 and it would have been great to keep Gabe as the #3, but not at that price. 

Josh isn't blameless either and fans I think are a little too harsh on Gabe not wanting to blame Josh.

 

However, I think a lot of those INT's/miscues was Josh putting "too much" trust in Gabe given his size.  You just didn't see him take those chances with someone like Jon Brown or Emmanuel Sanders.  I prefer that type of outside WR opposite Diggs.  Remove the temptation of having a WR with Gabe's profile.

47 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

It'd be nice to have a proven TD producer in our WR corps.  Besides Diggs we do not have that.   As of now, the only WRs on the team that have caught much of anything for us from Allen are Diggs and Shakir.  Shorter will hopefully be good.  He's a wild-card of sorts.  

He's not a wild-card.  He's a WR4 special teams gunner and that's his ceiling imo.  Anyone expecting more will be disappointed.

Edited March 24 by Doc Brown

[PBF81]

44 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

I find it very funny when folks say things like this, when there's a mountain of evidence that suggest otherwise.

 

Samuel IMO is an upgrade over trash like Harty and Trent. Harty was an overpaid gadget KR guy, and Trent was trash making 800k a year as a vet minumum. In the last 4 seasons, including the year he barely played, he outproduced both of their entire careers COMBINED.

 

He can and likely will far outproduce their meager contributions. Asking him to replace both of them and Gabe IMO is a mistake. They need a rookie WR on the boundary. Diggs + rookie + Shakir + Samuel has a chance to be a much better unit than Diggs + Gabe _ Harty + Sherfield.

 

A lot of IFs and suppositions in there.

 

All kinds of things can happen.

 

Last year at this time the same exact things were being said about Harty & Sherfield.  

 

We'll have to wait and see how it shakes out.  

 

 

24 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

 

He's not a wild-card.  He's a WR4 special teams gunner and that's his ceiling imo.  Anyone expecting more will be disappointed.

 

Oh, thanks for clearing that up.  

 

😎

 

 

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

A lot of IFs and suppositions in there.

 

All kinds of things can happen.

 

Last year at this time the same exact things were being said about Harty & Sherfield.  

 

We'll have to wait and see how it shakes out.  

 

 

 

Oh, thanks for clearing that up.  

 

😎

 

 

I didn't say if ONCE.  Holy smokes dude.

[Doc Brown]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Oh, thanks for clearing that up.  

 

😎

My pleasure and I'm even an optimist by nature.  Shorter is just the classic late round under performing yet highly recruited toolsy player that is bound to disappoint fans who think he could be a steal in the 5th round.

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Davis' drops were bad for one season.  Discounting that singular season, that everyone made a mountain of a narrative over, do you know what Samuel's drop % is compared to Davis'? 

 

Davis' drops other than in '22 are quite average in terms of drop %.

 

You may want to look that up before making comments like that.  

 

Otherwise, once again, the comment misses the mark and still does not address the issue.  You'll see, again, this season quite likely, ... unless Samuel becomes a scoring machine.  

 

Hope he does, but I wouldn't put money on it.  

 

 

 

I like Gabe Davis as a $4-6 million a year WR but not for $39 million for 3 years.  He's simply not consistent enough.

 

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, if Diggs is really finished like everyone here assumes, we'd better have an answer better than Samuel or yes, that's exactly where we're headed.  Allen was down about 20% as it was this season from prior years.  

 

Hopefully we draft a WR in round 1.  Also, I'm not on the train claiming that Diggs is finished.  IMO it's how he's used.  In fact, someone posted a piece recently, forget where, it may have been linked on the front page, that Diggs was used in slot nearly 50% of the time.  If that's true, and there's no reason to consider the guy's research false, then that would certainly explain the dropoff in production from Diggs.  

 

Complimentary Football as McD likes to call it.  

 

We can expect Kincaid to pick up some of the slack though, but he's not a WR.  

 

 

 

Like you, I don't assume that Diggs is finished.   He seemed to have been double teamed constantly toward the end of the season, which suggests that the other Bills receiving options weren't effective enough to force defenders to make hard choices on coverage.    IMO using Diggs in the slot seems a waste of his talent, but maybe the Bills wanted to see if Davis could step up to become a reliable downfield WR on the outside.  Davis didn't/couldn't, so the Bills let him walk.

[78thealltimegreat]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I find it very funny when folks say things like this, when there's a mountain of evidence that suggest otherwise.

 

Samuel IMO is an upgrade over trash like Harty and Trent. Harty was an overpaid gadget KR guy, and Trent was trash making 800k a year as a vet minumum. In the last 4 seasons, including the year he barely played, he outproduced both of their entire careers COMBINED.

 

He can and likely will far outproduce their meager contributions. Asking him to replace both of them and Gabe IMO is a mistake. They need a rookie WR on the boundary. Diggs + rookie + Shakir + Samuel has a chance to be a much better unit than Diggs + Gabe _ Harty + Sherfield.

I stand by it Beane could do even more 

[PauleeeWalnuts]

Feeling indifferent. They haven’t done anything that would indicate they will take the next step and get over the hump next season. Another Divisional Round loss is probable, maybe even a Wild Card knockout. Can’t beat Burrow or Mahomes when it counts and they didn’t get any better this offseason. 

Edited March 25 by PauleeeWalnuts

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, PauleeeWalnuts said:

Feeling indifferent. They haven’t done anything that would indicate they will take the next step and get over the hump next season. Another Divisional Round loss is probable, maybe even a Wild Card knockout. Can’t beat Burrow or Mahomes when it counts and they didn’t get any better this offseason. 

What specifically did the Colts do differently to finally get past the Pats in the 2000's?  What did the 49ers do differently to finally get past the Cowboy's in the 90's?  They kept tweaking personnel but the GM/Head Coach/QB remained the same. They just kept working on it each off-season to try and put themselves in that position again and the ball finally bounced their way.  We may look back 10 years from now and realize how stupid it would've been if we didn't stay the course.

[Gregg]

I want to see how the draft goes. Window #1 to win a Super Bowl with Allen has closed. Window #2 is now opening. They need to get younger and add more skill especially around Josh on offense. I am looking forward to the draft with 11 picks. Hopefully Beane can hit a HR with his picks.

[PBF81]

15 hours ago, FireChans said:

I didn't say if ONCE.  Holy smokes dude.

 

No, two IMOs, one has a chance to, a likely will, and an assumption that we'll draft a viable WR capable of doing what you suggest.  

 

There's quite a bit of room for things not falling the way that you say.  

 

Again, much of the talk about Harty last season was the same as that for Samuel now.  Doesn't matter the kick out the door talk now.  

 

 

15 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

My pleasure and I'm even an optimist by nature.  Shorter is just the classic late round under performing yet highly recruited toolsy player that is bound to disappoint fans who think he could be a steal in the 5th round.

 

Unlike known disappointments like Harty whom everyone was talking up at this time last year, or the perennially underachieving Samuel I suppose.  

 

 

[Chaos]

22 minutes ago, Gregg said:

I want to see how the draft goes. Window #1 to win a Super Bowl with Allen has closed. Window #2 is now opening. They need to get younger and add more skill especially around Josh on offense. I am looking forward to the draft with 11 picks. Hopefully Beane can hit a HR with his picks.

Why do you think there are multple windows? 

If there are multiple windows, why did window #1 close?
Why is window #2 opening?
What do you think will be different between window #1 and window #2?

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Why do you think there are multple windows? 

If there are multiple windows, why did window #1 close?
Why is window #2 opening?
What do you think will be different between window #1 and window #2?

 

Alot of the players on defense have gotten old. Both Poyer and Hyde are gone for example. The team has released a number of players already this offseason. The team has to get younger and add more skill around Allen. Even Diggs is now so 30 so eventually the Bills will need to find a new #1 WR. Bottom line the core around Allen is changing. That isn't necessarily a bad thing. We all knew this was going to happen and it has.

[Chaos]

1 minute ago, Gregg said:

Bottom line the core around Allen is changing.

Do you expect this new core to be better than the old core? 

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

Do you expect this new core to be better than the old core? 

 

That depends on Beane. If he has a great draft, then yes, I do. 

[GASabresIUFan]

I’d give Beane a solid B for this off-season so far.

 

He was facing a huge uphill battle to get under the cap (a problem of his own making).  However, with a little help from the NFL, Miller and Knox he managed to get the job done with minimal damage to the starting group.

 

With the retention of Jones and Epenesa, Beane brings back 17 of 22 starters on O & D. On offense starts Morse and Davis depart and on defense Hyde, Poyer and Floyd depart, but Floyd is replaced by Espenesa.

 

Reviewing the major areas of change: 

 

OL - Out with Morse and Bates.  In with the Clapp.  McGovern moves to center and Edwards moves to from back up guard to starter.  The line was a major strength last year and could be again if McGovern can replace Morse effectively.  
 

WR - Out with Davis, Harry and Sherfield.  In with Hollins and Samuel.   Samuel and Hollins are upgrades over Harty and Sherfield, but neither stretches the field nor are they a replacement for Davis.  Samuel is a slot receiver whose numbers, such as Yards/catch, catch%, YAC/catch, and explosive plays, are all inferior to the slot  receiver we already have in Shakir.  When they draft a boundary receiver, Samuel will ultimately be relegated to our 5th best receiving option.  Not sure spending $8 million on the 5th option is a wise cap decision.  That said this group is deeper and more talented than last year.

 

D Line - Out - Floyd, Settle, Ford, Phillips and Lawson.  In - Johnson and Toohill.  Obviously, we are still down a few players and this is where the biggest questions lie.  Can Miller, Epenesa or a draft pick step-up to replace the loss of Floyd? Can Jones stay healthy? If the answers are yes, then the line will be fine.  I’m also interested to see what Jonathan can do.

 

Safety - Out with Hyde (?) and Poyer. In with Edwards. Rapp becomes a starter.  Going from aging stars Poyer and Hyde to Rapp and Edwards is a downgrade.  Beane says he’s open to Hyde returning.  I’d be happier with a stud early in the draft like Bullard, Bullock, Kinchens, or Hicks.  Beane needs to invest here finally.  
 

Overall the two lines and the safeties have been downgraded on paper this off-season, but I’m not overly concerned about the lines.  The safeties do concern me. Edwards and Rapp only played 50% of their team’s snaps last season for a reason.  Each guy only started because of injuries and neither graded out all that well. PFF graded both at 56.5 & 56.4 respectively.

 

Only the WR group has been upgraded, but not in the area of greatest need.  

The bottomline is with the starters mostly intact, the team will be very good assuming they stay healthy.  The offense should be more dynamic with Samuel and assuming they draft a deep threat.  Hopefully Miller, Epenesa and Jonathan step up on the D line to actually make it as effective as last year and that McGovern plays as well as Morse did to anchor the OLine.

Edited March 25 by GASabresIUFan

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

No, two IMOs, one has a chance to, a likely will, and an assumption that we'll draft a viable WR capable of doing what you suggest.  

 

There's quite a bit of room for things not falling the way that you say.  

 

Again, much of the talk about Harty last season was the same as that for Samuel now.  Doesn't matter the kick out the door talk now.  

 

 

 

Unlike known disappointments like Harty whom everyone was talking up at this time last year, or the perennially underachieving Samuel I suppose.  

 

 

A lot of people weren’t happy with the Harty sign. Samuel has proven he is consistent player in this league where Harty had one solid season. To be honest I think your biggest problem in this chat is you think the O is gonna be similar to Daboll and Dorsey, it’s not. Davis disappeared when McD made the change at OC, so looking for a guy to fill his roll the way he was used previously might not be needed. 

[T master]

I most generally feel good about the team with Beane & McD in charge . As long as we have 17 behind the center we should have a above average team but all the other teams are getting better too so then there's that .

 

My favorite player in the first round has become Leggett, i watched his tape & from anything i've heard his speed & size is very good then to pair him with who we have & have acquired i think Brady has everything he needs to put points on the board pretty much at will as long as his scheme is sound .

 

GO BILLS !!!!