PBF81 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Not sure TDs/reception is the best way to compare Bills players to others imo This offense generates a lot more TDs than your average There isn't a player on our roster, during McD's entire tenure, that even approaches Davis' ability to score TDs. The best we have is Diggs and he's averaged a TD every 12 catches. In the playoffs Davis walks away with it. It's not an end-all-to-be-all indicator, but none are. But swapping out an enigmatic WR that doesn't fill a need at Slot but also isn't truly a #1/#2 split type either should at least be a concern. We do this every season, everyone we sign is going to make some kind of difference or something. Samuel's best season ever, which was four seasons ago, had him log 851 yards and 3 TDs and 36 1st-Downs on 77 catches. Two of those three TDs were in losses and the other was in a shutout/blowout. That doesn't exactly scream out that he's a clutch player. It's always a flag too, two things actually, when people go back to a players' draft status after two contract terms (7 years) in the league; but moreover, anytime we grab someone from Carolina because one of our coaches or Beane "drafted him" or "is familiar with him." Last season Davis had 45 catches, 7 TDs, and 31 1st-Downs. That's nowhere near an even swap. Davis was far more efficient on a per-catch basis. As to our team generating a lot more passing TDs than average (assuming you mean passing TDs since we're talking WRs here), the Skins had 407 completions, 3,725 passing yards, and 24 passing TDs. We had 385 completions (22 fewer), 4,154 yards (429 more), and 29 passing TDs. (5 more, marginal) Davis was 25% of those 29 TDs too. Considering that Kincaid will probably pick up more of the slack, I'm not sure I see Samuel matching Davis' TD numbers when he hasn't put up more than 4 TDs in any of his last four seasons. We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 22 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said: Like a fan of a 10 win team, tops Changed user name from Joe in Winslow. Now it makes sense. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 2 minutes ago, PBF81 said: There isn't a player on our roster, during McD's entire tenure, that even approaches Davis' ability to score TDs. The best we have is Diggs and he's averaged a TD every 12 catches. In the playoffs Davis walks away with it. It's not an end-all-to-be-all indicator, but none are. But swapping out an enigmatic WR that doesn't fill a need at Slot but also isn't truly a #1/#2 split type either should at least be a concern. We do this every season, everyone we sign is going to make some kind of difference or something. Samuel's best season ever, which was four seasons ago, had him log 851 yards and 3 TDs and 36 1st-Downs on 77 catches. Two of those three TDs were in losses and the other was in a shutout/blowout. That doesn't exactly scream out that he's a clutch player. It's always a flag too, two things actually, when people go back to a players' draft status after two contract terms (7 years) in the league; but moreover, anytime we grab someone from Carolina because one of our coaches or Beane "drafted him" or "is familiar with him." Last season Davis had 45 catches, 7 TDs, and 31 1st-Downs. That's nowhere near an even swap. Davis was far more efficient on a per-catch basis. As to our team generating a lot more passing TDs than average (assuming you mean passing TDs since we're talking WRs here), the Skins had 407 completions, 3,725 passing yards, and 24 passing TDs. We had 385 completions (22 fewer), 4,154 yards (429 more), and 29 passing TDs. (5 more, marginal) Davis was 25% of those 29 TDs too. Considering that Kincaid will probably pick up more of the slack, I'm not sure I see Samuel matching Davis' TD numbers when he hasn't put up more than 4 TDs in any of his last four seasons. We'll see. 😂😂I don't think you can use 'Tds in losses' for Samuel and 'walks away w playoff TDs' for Davis simultaneously Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: 😂😂I don't think you can use 'Tds in losses' for Samuel and 'walks away w playoff TDs' for Davis simultaneously To be fair, I did not read the whole thing. But I am PRO TD’s! In a very big way! 😋 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 21 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I think an AFCCG in 2024 would probably be a bit of overachievement. Why? what is lacking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppy Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) 5 hours ago, hondo in seattle said: I really hope I'm wrong, but I think when he's done, Beane will make the 2024 roster about as good as 2023's. And that's fine - if the goal is to reach the playoffs. that means the other teams have kept pace with their past teams and roster strength due to changes too though. I'm not sure we can make that assumption. each and every season. There is so much that goes into an NFL Dub. I wish there was an exact formula for a Lombardi NFL championship. we know the franchise QB is key. Stout trenches Key. Special teams being "special" that too. Think of it like a 3 legged chair One leg breaks the whole chair falls. and then injuries ...******* injuries emulating how to beat the Chiefs. I get it. Just one season I wish the breaks go the way of the Bills and we do win it all. It's my dream. Edited March 23 by muppy 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 3 minutes ago, Chaos said: Why? what is lacking? Talent. Edge rush. Receiving. Secondary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 4 minutes ago, PBF81 said: There isn't a player on our roster, during McD's entire tenure, that even approaches Davis' ability to score TDs. The best we have is Diggs and he's averaged a TD every 12 catches. In the playoffs Davis walks away with it. It's not an end-all-to-be-all indicator, but none are. But swapping out an enigmatic WR that doesn't fill a need at Slot but also isn't truly a #1/#2 split type either should at least be a concern. We do this every season, everyone we sign is going to make some kind of difference or something. Samuel's best season ever, which was four seasons ago, had him log 851 yards and 3 TDs and 36 1st-Downs on 77 catches. Two of those three TDs were in losses and the other was in a shutout/blowout. That doesn't exactly scream out that he's a clutch player. It's always a flag too, two things actually, when people go back to a players' draft status after two contract terms (7 years) in the league; but moreover, anytime we grab someone from Carolina because one of our coaches or Beane "drafted him" or "is familiar with him." Last season Davis had 45 catches, 7 TDs, and 31 1st-Downs. That's nowhere near an even swap. Davis was far more efficient on a per-catch basis. As to our team generating a lot more passing TDs than average (assuming you mean passing TDs since we're talking WRs here), the Skins had 407 completions, 3,725 passing yards, and 24 passing TDs. We had 385 completions (22 fewer), 4,154 yards (429 more), and 29 passing TDs. (5 more, marginal) Davis was 25% of those 29 TDs too. Considering that Kincaid will probably pick up more of the slack, I'm not sure I see Samuel matching Davis' TD numbers when he hasn't put up more than 4 TDs in any of his last four seasons. We'll see. Would you kindly explain why you believe TD per reception, or TD "efficiency on a per catch basis", is a useful metric to assess a WR? Because in all seriousness, I don't Get It. In 4 years, Justin Jefferson has 30 TD in 392 receptions. In 4 years, Gabe Davis has 27 TD in 163 receptions Would you seriously try to assert that anyone would rather have Gabe Davis on their roster instead of Justin Jefferson, because the former is "more efficient on a per-catch basis"? Curtis Samuel has been playing the slot. I don't think any sane Bills fan would argue that Cole Beasley didn't make significant receiving contributions to the Bills in his 3 seasons on the team and his 231 receptions, but OMG! he only scored 11 TD! How inefficient! Golly gee.....maybe slot WR don't contribute as many TDs when space is condensed in the red zone and it's harder for them to do their bread-and-butter "find holes in zone"? This reminds me of my younger 'n dumber days when I said something to someone about not earning too much money so I didn't have to pay more taxes. The guy I said it to gave me a look like I had swiss cheese for brains and said "I think you've got it mixed, you still have more money". Receiving yards matter. 1D matter. Sure, TD matter, but there are all sorts of tricks and tendencies for players we don't normally see on the field to get utilized there. TD per reception just doesn't sound like a useful metric. Travis Kelce has 74 TD on 907 receptions, How Inefficient, Throw the Bum Out. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Talent. Edge rush. Receiving. Secondary. It seems to me all teams have gaps in talents. Which teams do you think have fewer gaps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBF81 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 20 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: 😂😂I don't think you can use 'Tds in losses' for Samuel and 'walks away w playoff TDs' for Davis simultaneously So your argument is that Samuel is a clutch player though? Seems like another good but far from great and certainly not a game-changing signing. We'll see what he contributes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Just now, PBF81 said: So your argument is that Samuel is a clutch player though? Seems like another good but far from great and certainly not a game-changing signing. We'll see what he contributes. No, my argument is that losing a high TD/rec guy to be replaced by one w a lower ratio isn't necessarily an indicator of anything significant 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBF81 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 4 minutes ago, Beck Water said: This reminds me of my younger 'n dumber days when ... Nah, I'll pass. Not much in the mood for an ad hominem exchange here. I've already explained some of the other stuff. Sorry that you think that the singular analysis is FUBAR. I don't think so. So we'll simply have to agree to disagree. Otherwise, I'll look Forward to Samuel's career season forthcoming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nephilim17 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 33 minutes ago, PBF81 said: There isn't a player on our roster, during McD's entire tenure, that even approaches Davis' ability to score TDs. Not so. Gabe Davis has scored 7, 6, 7 and 7 TDs in his four years here. We have a couple players with extended stretches that match or exceed this: Dawson Knox: 2021: 9 TDs 2022: 6 TDs Stephon Diggs: 2020: 8 TDs 2021: 10 TDs 2022: 11 TDs 2023: 8 TDs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBF81 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: No, my argument is that losing a high TD/rec guy to be replaced by one w a lower ratio isn't necessarily an indicator of anything significant So you're essentially arguing that a WR's ability to find the end zone is insignificant then. Well, OK. I suppose there's at least some reasonable debate in there. IMO it's relevant, particularly on a team like ours where receiving TD producers seem to be rare. Let's hope he has his best season ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 53 minutes ago, Beck Water said: Changed user name from Joe in Winslow. Now it makes sense. As if it matters, man. Wouldn't change my opinion of 2024 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBF81 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said: Not so. Gabe Davis has scored 7, 6, 7 and 7 TDs in his four years here. We have a couple players with extended stretches that match or exceed this: Dawson Knox: 2021: 9 TDs 2022: 6 TDs Stephon Diggs: 2020: 8 TDs 2021: 10 TDs 2022: 11 TDs 2023: 8 TDs You missed the point entirely. It's about efficiency, not gross numbers. That should have been clear. Again, we'll see. I'm way past believing how players that our staff is familiar with, typically from Carolina, are all of a sudden after years of mediocrity, are going to shine here for some inexplicable rain. Same for Harty & Sherfield last year at this time. And Knox is a TE, and other than for his '21 season, he too has defined mediocrity, at best, on a good day, averaging 350 yards and 3 TDs per season otherwise in four other seasons. Edited March 23 by PBF81 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 2 minutes ago, PBF81 said: So you're essentially arguing that a WR's ability to find the end zone is insignificant then. Well, OK. I suppose there's at least some reasonable debate in there. IMO it's relevant, particularly on a team like ours where receiving TD producers seem to be rare. Let's hope he has his best season ever. I do think it's largely a matter of circumstance It's why Knox's outsize TD year that got him paid just wasn't a very convincing argument imo There are a lot of TDs to go around here and they've got to go somewhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PBF81 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: I do think it's largely a matter of circumstance It's why Knox's outsize TD year that got him paid just wasn't a very convincing argument imo There are a lot of TDs to go around here and they've got to go somewhere Well, OK, other than for Diggs, name the other WRs that we've had here that have played significantly better than they have elsewhere? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 40 minutes ago, Chaos said: It seems to me all teams have gaps in talents. Which teams do you think have fewer gaps? In the AFC? At least the Chiefs, Bengals, Texans and Ravens. I think we have been a top 3 roster in the AFC the last 4 seasons. We are now 5th or 6th IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akcash Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 We have a complete roster with 11 draft picks as a bonus. I feel good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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