Anyone else feeling pretty good with the Bills?

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

John Brown. Cole Beasley.

 

You nailed them.  Beasley, he's the only one with a pronounced increase however.  

 

Brown, not so much although it's debatable.  Improved, yes, but to suggest that it was significant in his case may be a bit of a reach.  His two best seasons, one here ('19), one in Arizona ('15), were all but carbon copies of one another.  

 

In AZ he posted 1,003 yards and 7 TDS, here he had 1,060 yards and 6 TDs.  

 

On a per start basis, here vs. elsewhere, he averaged marginally more, but not significantly more.  If we applied the same percentage increase to Samuel, Samuel would go from being about a 500 yard & 3 TD WR to a 700 yard and 4 TD WR.  Not much more.  We'll need more than that from somewhere.  

 

Otherwise, and thanks for answering, but if those are the only two examples, that's pretty much the point.  Consider all of the other WRs that we've picked up that have done nothing, or even worse than they've done elsewhere.  

 

It's hardly a guarantee either.  Everyone's saying the exact same things about Samuel that they said about Harty last year.  It's typical.  

 

 

8 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Do you actually think Gabe would have the same results playing with some of the below average QBs Samuel has played with? 

 

Is that the point that I've been making?  

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

10 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, if Diggs is really finished like everyone here assumes, we'd better have an answer better than Samuel or yes, that's exactly where we're headed.  Allen was down about 20% as it was this season from prior years.  

 

Hopefully we draft a WR in round 1.  Also, I'm not on the train claiming that Diggs is finished.  IMO it's how he's used.  In fact, someone posted a piece recently, forget where, it may have been linked on the front page, that Diggs was used in slot nearly 50% of the time.  If that's true, and there's no reason to consider the guy's research false, then that would certainly explain the dropoff in production from Diggs.  

 

Complimentary Football as McD likes to call it.  

 

We can expect Kincaid to pick up some of the slack though, but he's not a WR.  

 

 

 

I find it hard to believe Allen goes from 37 to 36 to 35 to 29 and then 25 passing TD's. This for a QB who has four straight seasons of 40+ total TD's. The Bills offense is still moving the ball (4th in total yards) and scoring too (6th in points). They had 451 points scored. Only a slight dip from '22 and '21 at 455 and 483 points scored. If the Bills are still moving the ball someone is going to be scoring. It was likely an anomaly that Allen had 15 rushing TD's this last year. Expect a return to less than 10 rushing TD's and more than 30 passing TD's. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

3 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 
Agreed, Guns. I will say this, a few weeks ago we were 52 million over the cap and we had some guys…guys that we love, but guys that were pricey and let’s say it, getting old.

 

Now we are under, signing some pieces, albeit not stellar, that shore us up, and we still have a fantastic core on both sides of the ball.

 

Will we win the division? I hope so.  However, will we be in the the playoffs? Yes.

 

I will roll with this team and I am looking forward to the future, optimistic for 24, fired up for 25.

 

Go Bills!

 

@NoHuddleKelly12

 

Donuts, free round of a baker’s dozen for all—I’ll take a jelly-filled glazed if you please! That will pair nicely with my surging optimism and fortify my mood against Debbie downer threads that believe the Jets have overtaken us for the division. Here’s to our successful franchise reboot and shocking the world in 2025. Suck on that Mr. Nick Never-Wright! 

[BananaB]

23 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

You nailed them.  Beasley, he's the only one with a pronounced increase however.  

 

Brown, not so much although it's debatable.  Improved, yes, but to suggest that it was significant in his case may be a bit of a reach.  His two best seasons, one here ('19), one in Arizona ('15), were all but carbon copies of one another.  

 

In AZ he posted 1,003 yards and 7 TDS, here he had 1,060 yards and 6 TDs.  

 

On a per start basis, here vs. elsewhere, he averaged marginally more, but not significantly more.  If we applied the same percentage increase to Samuel, Samuel would go from being about a 500 yard & 3 TD WR to a 700 yard and 4 TD WR.  Not much more.  We'll need more than that from somewhere.  

 

Otherwise, and thanks for answering, but if those are the only two examples, that's pretty much the point.  Consider all of the other WRs that we've picked up that have done nothing, or even worse than they've done elsewhere.  

 

It's hardly a guarantee either.  Everyone's saying the exact same things about Samuel that they said about Harty last year.  It's typical.  

 

 

 

Is that the point that I've been making?  

 

 

You keep going on about the TD stats and having a good QB makes a big difference 

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I find it hard to believe Allen goes from 37 to 36 to 35 to 29 and then 25 passing TD's. This for a QB who has four straight seasons of 40+ total TD's. The Bills offense is still moving the ball (4th in total yards) and scoring too (6th in points). They had 451 points scored. Only a slight dip from '22 and '21 at 455 and 483 points scored. If the Bills are still moving the ball someone is going to be scoring. It was likely an anomaly that Allen had 15 rushing TD's this last year. Expect a return to less than 10 rushing TD's and more than 30 passing TD's. 

 

I found it difficult to believe that he was below 30 this season.  I'd have wagered a grand prior to the season on 30+.  

 

As a team, our offensive scoring was slightly less under Brady.  Under Brady, our offensive scoring would have been good for 8th in the league on average using his 7 games in the regular season.  That's underachievement.  Over the last three games of the season we averaged fewer than 20 ppg.  Much as with Dorsey over the first four games of the season, we came out swinging, sort of, against the Jets, Eagles, and Cowboys, 

 

Now our biggest scoring WR is gone, we still have no #2 of the caliber that everyone's claiming we need.  Diggs, apparently, is in decline.  Why, at this point and things unchanged, would our scoring be better than it was last season?   Who knows, maybe we'll be #1 in scoring this season.  Right now things don't seem to be aligning in that way however.  

 

 

1 minute ago, BananaB said:

You keep going on about the TD stats and having a good QB makes a big difference 

 

OK, then why haven't any of the other WRs that we've picked up since Allen's been here improved as such?  

 

Seriously, why not?  

 

 

[BananaB]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I found it difficult to believe that he was below 30 this season.  I'd have wagered a grand prior to the season on 30+.  

 

As a team, our offensive scoring was slightly less under Brady.  Under Brady, our offensive scoring would have been good for 8th in the league on average using his 7 games in the regular season.  That's underachievement.  Over the last three games of the season we averaged fewer than 20 ppg.  Much as with Dorsey over the first four games of the season, we came out swinging, sort of, against the Jets, Eagles, and Cowboys, 

 

Now our biggest scoring WR is gone, we still have no #2 of the caliber that everyone's claiming we need.  Diggs, apparently, is in decline.  Why, at this point and things unchanged, would our scoring be better than it was last season?   Who knows, maybe we'll be #1 in scoring this season.  Right now things don't seem to be aligning in that way however.  

 

 

 

OK, then why haven't any of the other WRs that we've picked up since Allen's been here improved as such?  

 

Seriously, why not?  

 

 

Beasley, Brown and Diggs have all had the best years of their career with Allen. What are you talking about? 

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Beasley, Brown and Diggs have all had the best years of their career with Allen. What are you talking about? 

 

If you want to join in, I'd highly suggest reading what I wrote to start this first.  

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

I found it difficult to believe that he was below 30 this season.  I'd have wagered a grand prior to the season on 30+.  

 

As a team, our offensive scoring was slightly less under Brady.  Under Brady, our offensive scoring would have been good for 8th in the league on average using his 7 games in the regular season.  That's underachievement.  Over the last three games of the season we averaged fewer than 20 ppg.  Much as with Dorsey over the first four games of the season, we came out swinging, sort of, against the Jets, Eagles, and Cowboys, 

 

 

 

I also would not have wagered a grand on 15 rushing TD's though either. Doesn't really matter how we score points. Just that we score. Bills continue to score at a high rate. 

 

To counter the ppg under Brady, offensive scoring was up in the two post season games. 27.5 ppg vs. 26.5 on the regular season total and significantly greater than the 20ppg in the final three regular season games. Brady also took over in the second half of the season when the weather is not typically as conducive to higher scoring games. Although, less than a factor this past season with late season road games in Miami and LA. Bills still faced tough Chief and Patriot defenses in December. 

[BananaB]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

If you want to join in, I'd highly suggest reading what I wrote to start this first.  

 

 

Brady took over mid season, I think he surpassed his expectations. He got more players involved in the O and it wasn’t just dependent on Diggs and Gabe. I expect more this season. And considering Gabe was a ghost in his offense I’m even more happy the Bills didn’t pay him.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

13 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

OK, then why haven't any of the other WRs that we've picked up since Allen's been here improved as such?  

 

Seriously, why not?  

 

 

 

Serious question. Just how many do you expect to improve? 

 

Diggs and Beasely improved greatly. Brown had one of his best seasons. That's 3. Is there a problem that the number is only 3? I mean Diggs has been one of the best wr's in the league the last 4 seasons on average. Beasley was an all-pro. There's not going to be a ton of opportunity for other pass catchers when you had those two plus home grown Gabe Davis taking the lions share of the targets. 

 

Crowder, Sherfield, Sanders and Harty did not have career seasons. I'm not sure there is anything wrong with that given the target shares that Diggs, Beasley and Davis and throw in a rookie first round draft pick in Kincaid took away from those four players. 

 

Nothing wrong with 3 at all IMO. 

[Beck Water]

On 3/22/2024 at 6:40 PM, SoonerBillsFan said:

Heading into the draft, I feel pretty good about the Bills.  The only thing lacking is a pash rush from the front 4.  I am concerned Groot has had a couple seasons now and needs to step up and be a 10+ sack guy.  I don't like depending so much on Von. Other than that I feel all the other positions are solid. 

 

Depending on who is there at 28, I am tempted to move down, possibly with Carolina who may want to move back into the 1st. Possibly Washington as well to get a 3rd round pick.   Maybe use a 4th and 5th( or 6th) to move up in the 2nd.

 

WR is still #1 on my list followed by DL.  Safety in the 4th, along with just BPA from there on out.

 

How are you guys feeling about a month out from the draft?

 

I guess I'd summarize my feelings as "cautiously optimistic", but I really won't know what to think until after the draft.

 

Given how far over the cap we were heading into the season, I've been cautiously by the moves that have been made.  I was afraid loyalty would win over Cold Hard Football Facts with regard to Poyer and to choosing between Rasul Douglas and Tre White.  I like Curtis Samuel as a FA signing far more than Deonte Harty, which was a big dice-roll to me last season.  I expected "OMG Swiss Cheese Everywhere on Defense", and I think Beane has done a good strategic job at filling holes.  Speaking of Harty, I was also pleased that Beane acknowledged the failure of the Harty and Nyheim Hines moves and cut line.  (Sometimes GMs fall in love with their own work and lobby for more chances and time)

 

Assuming Milano comes back somewhere near himself and Von Miller at least improves to decent, the front 7 on our defense looks OK.  The biggest gap is at DE, where we lost the team leader on sacks in Floyd (10.5).  Are we counting on Epenesa and Rousseau to step up?  And, we definitely need depth at DE.

 

As far as DB, we have Johnson, Douglas, and Benford back which were our best DB, but Elam is still a big question mark.  Speaking of questionmark, I think Edwards looks like the sort of signing they made when they acquired Poyer and Hyde in 2017, but I don't trust Rapp as the other pairing there, and again, we need depth.  But I don't think a lot of fans appreciate how far Hyde and Poyer had declined last season.  They still had all the smarts, but not the range.

 

So on defense: questions at DE, need depth at DT; questions at safety and need depth at DB.

 

On offense, I consider center a giant (6'6", see what I did there?) questionmark.  McGovern really hasn't played center on the regular in the NFL and acknowledges where he did, it was with a different blocking technique.  And, if the coaches thought Edwards was a better LG than McGovern, it follows they would have started him at LG last season - so I feel that we've downgraded at LG, potentially at LG and C (we'll see).  We definitely need depth at IOL and tackle, and IMHO we need a RT to develop behind Brown.  I still feel we cover for him in pass plays with a TE or 6th OLman.  I am under-impressed by the Clapp signing, other than it does give us a guy who has actually taken substantial Center snaps in the NFL as an option but that 3.75 RAS score has me SMH.

 

I like the Curtis Samuel signing, but I still feel we need a boundary receiver.

 

On ST, wtf was wrong with Bass and can he recover?  And it's concerning that we signed Haack, while Martin's salary is guaranteed.  As far as ST goes, I was actually surprised at how solid the core was.  I felt it was kind of a global reset, losing Neal, Dodson, Matekavich, and Sherfield and with Rapp possibly playing more defensive snaps and fewer ST.  But when I looked at the ST snaps, Gilliam, Cam Lewis, Q Morris, and Dorian Williams are all still here, and we've signed good ST contributors in Mack Hollins and Nick Morrow.  So I feel better about the ST core than I thought I would at this point.

I understand the people who feel the current team is weaker, but I wonder how they felt in 2021, when the Bills were basically trying to "run it back" with the same cast?  Sometimes that works, and sometimes it doesn't, and in 2021 it fell short.  I think that Beane has overall done a good job dealing the cards he had, but we are going into the draft Needing a couple picks to step up and pan out, and Needing a couple guys currently on the roster to level-up for the Bills to be more competitive.

 

And of course, the biggest unknown on the Bills, is Joe Brady and his QB coach acolyte Ronald Curry.  It *looked* as though Allen was more comfortable with Brady last season, but how well Curry will work with him is a big unknown

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PBF81]

16 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I also would not have wagered a grand on 15 rushing TD's though either. Doesn't really matter how we score points. Just that we score. Bills continue to score at a high rate. 

 

To counter the ppg under Brady, offensive scoring was up in the two post season games. 27.5 ppg vs. 26.5 on the regular season total and significantly greater than the 20ppg in the final three regular season games. Brady also took over in the second half of the season when the weather is not typically as conducive to higher scoring games. Although, less than a factor this past season with late season road games in Miami and LA. Bills still faced tough Chief and Patriot defenses in December. 

 

We'll see what this season brings.  Hopefully Samuel will be the 1,000 yard 8 TD WR that people seem to believe he will be.  

 

BTW, I certainly wouldn't have wagered against 15 rushing TDs either.   Cook isn't a goal-line RB and doesn't even carry the ball on 3rd-downs.  

 

 

12 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Brady took over mid season, I think he surpassed his expectations. He got more players involved in the O and it wasn’t just dependent on Diggs and Gabe. I expect more this season. And considering Gabe was a ghost in his offense I’m even more happy the Bills didn’t pay him.

 

Great!  We can all look forward to Samuel being the difference this season then.  Looking forward to it.    

 

 

[BananaB]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

We'll see what this season brings.  Hopefully Samuel will be the 1,000 yard 8 TD WR that people seem to believe he will be.  

 

BTW, I certainly wouldn't have wagered against 15 rushing TDs either.   Cook isn't a goal-line RB and doesn't even carry the ball on 3rd-downs.  

 

 

 

Great!  We can all look forward to Samuel being the difference this season then.  Looking forward to it.    

 

 

The off-season ain’t over yet Bud. There still is this thing called the draft that they can possibly get another contributor. Either way, Brady’s offense helped us have a huge winning streak over the toughest part of their schedule. During that run Gabe had 4 games without a catch 🤷🏼‍♂️

Edited March 24 by BananaB

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

You nailed them.  Beasley, he's the only one with a pronounced increase however.  

 

Brown, not so much although it's debatable.  Improved, yes, but to suggest that it was significant in his case may be a bit of a reach.  His two best seasons, one here ('19), one in Arizona ('15), were all but carbon copies of one another.  

 

In AZ he posted 1,003 yards and 7 TDS, here he had 1,060 yards and 6 TDs.  

 

On a per start basis, here vs. elsewhere, he averaged marginally more, but not significantly more.  If we applied the same percentage increase to Samuel, Samuel would go from being about a 500 yard & 3 TD WR to a 700 yard and 4 TD WR.  Not much more.  We'll need more than that from somewhere.  

 

Otherwise, and thanks for answering, but if those are the only two examples, that's pretty much the point.  Consider all of the other WRs that we've picked up that have done nothing, or even worse than they've done elsewhere.  

 

It's hardly a guarantee either.  Everyone's saying the exact same things about Samuel that they said about Harty last year.  It's typical.  

 

 

 

Is that the point that I've been making?  

 

 

The other receivers we have picked up have been bottom of the barrel trash. That’s the real problem. 

[KOKBILLS]

On 3/22/2024 at 7:40 PM, SoonerBillsFan said:

Heading into the draft, I feel pretty good about the Bills.  The only thing lacking is a pash rush from the front 4.  I am concerned Groot has had a couple seasons now and needs to step up and be a 10+ sack guy.  I don't like depending so much on Von. Other than that I feel all the other positions are solid. 

 

Depending on who is there at 28, I am tempted to move down, possibly with Carolina who may want to move back into the 1st. Possibly Washington as well to get a 3rd round pick.   Maybe use a 4th and 5th( or 6th) to move up in the 2nd.

 

WR is still #1 on my list followed by DL.  Safety in the 4th, along with just BPA from there on out.

 

How are you guys feeling about a month out from the draft?

 

Always feeling pretty good...

 

One reason...

 

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Serious question. Just how many do you expect to improve? 

 

Well, considering that I'm not the one, among many, arguing that simply because a WR comes here that his numbers (aka TDs) will increase to the point of replacing a WR that averaged 7 TDs/season on an average of 5 targets/game, my answer would be that it depends upon the WR.  

 

Which gets us back to the initial points of the discussion, at least insofar as I brought up.  Thinking that a WR that's averaged about 500 yards and 3 TDs/season without any particular propensity for the end zone, is all of a sudden out of the blue going to do much more than provide #3 WR production here is not an argument that I'm making.  

 

If people want to argue contrarily, great.  I guess that's why we're here.  We'll see how it plays out, but most WRs that have come here have not done that, namely significantly increased their production.  Naming only one that has significantly, and another that has, only marginally despite the lack of competition for his role in the #1 spot, doesn't seem like a strong argument.  

 

 

5 minutes ago, BananaB said:

The off-season ain’t over yet Bud. There still is this thing called the draft that they can possibly get another contributor. Either way, Brady’s offense helped us have a huge winning streak over the toughest part of their schedule. During that run Gabe had 4 games without a catch 🤷🏼‍♂️

 

Hence my comments stating given the present situation.  

 

Once again, let's hope that we draft a WR in round 1.  

 

 

[BananaB]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, considering that I'm not the one, among many, arguing that simply because a WR comes here that his numbers (aka TDs) will increase to the point of replacing a WR that averaged 7 TDs/season on an average of 5 targets/game, my answer would be that it depends upon the WR.  

 

Which gets us back to the initial points of the discussion, at least insofar as I brought up.  Thinking that a WR that's averaged about 500 yards and 3 TDs/season without any particular propensity for the end zone, is all of a sudden out of the blue going to do much more than provide #3 WR production here is not an argument that I'm making.  

 

If people want to argue contrarily, great.  I guess that's why we're here.  We'll see how it plays out, but most WRs that have come here have not done that, namely significantly increased their production.  Naming only one that has significantly, and another that has, only marginally despite the lack of competition for his role in the #1 spot, doesn't seem like a strong argument.  

 

 

 

Hence my comments stating given the present situation.  

 

Once again, let's hope that we draft a WR in round 1.  

 

 

Yeah cause 0 catches in 4 out 6 games is hard to duplicate 

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The other receivers we have picked up have been bottom of the barrel trash. That’s the real problem. 

 

LOL, funny, no one said that Hasty was trash last season.  I do recall making a similar argument regarding Hasty, and was slammed similarly about this time last year.  

 

Look, Samuel may end up with 1,200 yards and a dozen TDs, who knows.  But there's nothing historically to suggest that merely switching QBs for a WR of his caliber is going to propel him statistically the way that people seem to believe will happen.  

 

Let's be real about Samuel.  He's a WR that in seven seasons has amassed 3,383 yards on 10.7 yards-per-catch and 22 TDs.  

 

Sure, he has greater potential, but likely not as the #2 that everyone wants.  

 

 

[GoBills808]

24 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL, funny, no one said that Hasty was trash last season.  I do recall making a similar argument regarding Hasty, and was slammed similarly about this time last year.  

 

Look, Samuel may end up with 1,200 yards and a dozen TDs, who knows.  But there's nothing historically to suggest that merely switching QBs for a WR of his caliber is going to propel him statistically the way that people seem to believe will happen.  

 

Let's be real about Samuel.  He's a WR that in seven seasons has amassed 3,383 yards on 10.7 yards-per-catch and 22 TDs.  

 

Sure, he has greater potential, but likely not as the #2 that everyone wants.  

 

 

I don't think Samuel is here to replace Davis on a 1-for-1 target share

 

And I wouldn't pencil him in as the WR2 immediately, I am hopeful they draft a first round guy and have a legit competition for that spot

 

As you say they have much different profiles/skillsets

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

38 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, considering that I'm not the one, among many, arguing that simply because a WR comes here that his numbers (aka TDs) will increase to the point of replacing a WR that averaged 7 TDs/season on an average of 5 targets/game, my answer would be that it depends upon the WR.  

 

Which gets us back to the initial points of the discussion, at least insofar as I brought up.  Thinking that a WR that's averaged about 500 yards and 3 TDs/season without any particular propensity for the end zone, is all of a sudden out of the blue going to do much more than provide #3 WR production here is not an argument that I'm making.  

 

If people want to argue contrarily, great.  I guess that's why we're here.  We'll see how it plays out, but most WRs that have come here have not done that, namely significantly increased their production.  Naming only one that has significantly, and another that has, only marginally despite the lack of competition for his role in the #1 spot, doesn't seem like a strong argument.  

my point is that I would expect increased production out of both Shakir and Kincaid over any free agent  signings. Our own in house draft picks is where we should at first expect Davis stats to go to. Some will go to Samuel.