Marvin Harrison Jr wants to be a Bill

[FireChans]

On 3/22/2024 at 3:05 AM, Brand J said:

To put it into perspective, let’s attach some names to the draft picks. Is MHJ worth: Kaair Elam, Boogie Basham, Greg Rousseau, O’Cyrus Torrence, and Matt Milano? (I mixed in busts and successes for an accurate portrayal of what those future picks might look like).
 

What if Beane got supremely lucky and hit on all those picks? Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, Tre White, Dion Dawkins, and Khalil Shakir.
 

Is one MHJ, who’s talent could range anywhere between HoFer to an injury prone bust, worth giving up 4-5 years of five young, cost controlled contracts? You don’t trade the farm for a non-QB. End of discussion. Let the draft come to you and select the best wideout available at 28 if that’s the path you want to take. 

Smart money says that MHJ has more receiving yards and TD's than Cook, Shakir and Kincaid combined, FWIW.

[Doc]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Smart money says that MHJ has more receiving yards and TD's than Cook, Shakir and Kincaid combined, FWIW.

 

Before knowing to which team he's going?

[Einstein]

2 hours ago, djp14150 said:

Recall KC trade up with buffalo…..

 

10 for 27+ late 3rd+1st following year

 

Wow.

 

I forgot how badly KC fleeced us on that one.

[Mark Vader]

On 3/21/2024 at 8:05 PM, 78thealltimegreat said:

Of course barring a Ricky Williams trade deal this will never happen but man all these great receivers wanna come here the last couple years I really can’t figure out why. Since the QB clearly doesn’t wanna win enough.
 

 

Can't blame him. Do you think he really wants to go to Arizona?

[Brand J]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Smart money says that MHJ has more receiving yards and TD's than Cook, Shakir and Kincaid combined, FWIW.

“Smart money” would have to begin at 1600 yards and 12 TDs for that to be a realistic statement and that’s on the low end. And in his rookie season with Kyler Murray potentially throwing him the ball? Highly doubtful. 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Brand J said:

“Smart money” would have to begin at 1600 yards and 12 TDs for that to be a realistic statement and that’s on the low end. And in his rookie season with Kyler Murray potentially throwing him the ball? Highly doubtful. 

I meant over the course of his career vs theirs.

[Brand J]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I meant over the course of his career vs theirs.

Oh then I definitely disagree with that. One player is not going to outpace 3. Maybe if we were playing Madden and the injuries were turned off it’d be possible, but even if MHJ was mostly healthy throughout his career and hardly missed any games, I’d put my money on Allen distributing to Kincaid, Shakir, and Cook resulting in higher numbers than whoever will be throwing MHJ the ball. 
 

EDIT: And just for fun, these are the numbers a rookie TE, a WR in his first season as a full time slot, and a RB who left a number of yards and points on the board put up last year: 

 

156 catches

1,729 yards

8 TDs

 

And that’s just year one for that trio. 

Edited March 24 by Brand J

[FireChans]

21 minutes ago, Brand J said:

Oh then I definitely disagree with that. One player is not going to outpace 3. Maybe if we were playing Madden and the injuries were turned off it’d be possible, but even if MHJ was mostly healthy throughout his career and hardly missed any games, I’d put my money on Allen distributing to Kincaid, Shakir, and Cook resulting in higher numbers than whoever will be throwing MHJ the ball. 
 

EDIT: And just for fun, these are the numbers a rookie TE, a WR in his first season as a full time slot, and a RB who left a number of yards and points on the board put up last year: 

 

156 catches

1,729 yards

8 TDs

 

And that’s just year one for that trio. 

Kincaid is gonna be 25 this year. Shakir is 24. Cook will be 25.

 

That's how many more years total playing?  Shakir and Kincaid probably play into their early 30's, but I doubt Shakir has more than 1 1000 yard season in his career.  If Cook's brother is any indication, he may be out of the league at 28.

 

If MHJ doesn't miss a couple seasons with injury, he will easily surpass them. He may even surpass them in like 4-5 years.

 

50 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Before knowing to which team he's going?

Yes.

[Warriorspikes51]

This team needs an elite weapon. I trust that Beane will be able to determine who that is and if needed….move up the board. How high remains to be seen

 

If MHJ did actually express interest to play with Allen, Beane may be more willing to explore a move up

 

it’s a tough call, but if giving up 28,60 and next year’s 1st & 2nd gives us a better chance to prevail against top teams….I’m in

[BillsFanForever19]

16 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

This team needs an elite weapon. I trust that Beane will be able to determine who that is and if needed….move up the board. How high remains to be seen

 

If MHJ did actually express interest to play with Allen, Beane may be more willing to explore a move up

 

it’s a tough call, but if giving up 28,60 and next year’s 1st & 2nd gives us a better chance to prevail against top teams….I’m in

 

28, 60, our 1st and 2nd next year is not near enough. 

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

28, 60, our 1st and 2nd next year is not near enough. 

 

 

See that's where Beane would have to get a discount from one of his GM buddies like McDermott gave Andy Reid in the Mahomes trade.

 

First, trade the 2 4th round picks and a 5th this year to get a late 3rd rounder.

 

Then 28, 60 and next years #1 gets you inside the top 10 using the McDermott trade value chart(about 20 spots).........then you move up to Arizona with this years 3rd and next years 2nd and 3rd.  

 

Bada bing. 

 

But seriously..........you'd almost have to deal Diggs to Houston and get their two second round picks to have the juice to move up that far.    You could trade Houston your 2026 #1 as a place holder and then they could swap it back for Diggs in June.    I have no idea what kind of value Diggs would even have but, hypothetically, of course.

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

See that's where Beane would have to get a discount from one of his GM buddies like McDermott gave Andy Reid in the Mahomes trade.

 

First, trade the 2 4th round picks and a 5th this year to get a late 3rd rounder.

 

Then 28, 60 and next years #1 gets you inside the top 10 using the McDermott trade value chart(about 20 spots).........then you move up to Arizona with this years 3rd and next years 2nd and 3rd.  

 

Bada bing. 

 

But seriously..........you'd almost have to deal Diggs to Houston and get their two second round picks to have the juice to move up that far.    You could trade Houston your 2026 #1 as a place holder and then they could swap it back for Diggs in June.    I have no idea what kind of value Diggs would even have but, hypothetically, of course.

 

[Warriorspikes51]

If we add another Safety here in a bit, I think Beane may feel more comfortable with the state of the roster. There’s no immediate needs. Therefore, an aggressive move way up could intrigue him more than usual

 

if we don’t add a safety before the draft, keeping one of our 4ths would likely still allow us to add someone to compete with Rapp for starter

Edited March 24 by Warriorspikes51

[Brand J]

41 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Kincaid is gonna be 25 this year. Shakir is 24. Cook will be 25.

 

That's how many more years total playing?  Shakir and Kincaid probably play into their early 30's, but I doubt Shakir has more than 1 1000 yard season in his career.  If Cook's brother is any indication, he may be out of the league at 28.

 

If MHJ doesn't miss a couple seasons with injury, he will easily surpass them. He may even surpass them in like 4-5 years.

 

Yes.

Sounds like you’re trying to find ways to end the careers of those Bills early. James Cook done by 28 because of his brother? Shakir doesn’t need a thousand yards in a season, you said MHJ would surpass ALL of them in yards and TDs combined. I mean, if you take one of them out of the equation it’s a little more realistic, but even then Kincaid and Shakir wouldn’t have to put up monster years just to beat an all world year by MHJ. Remember, we’re talking combined stats. Add Cook into the equation and it’s just not realistic.
 

To make it clear and to put it into perspective, Jerry Rice is the all time yardage and TDs leader at essentially 23,000 yds and 197 TDs. Larry Fitz is the next closest at 17,500 yds, Moss is next in TDs at 156. Conservatively, if James Cook plays for 10 years and averages 300 yards receiving per season, Shakir plays 10 and averages 600 yards, and Kincaid plays 10 and averages 700 yards, you’re already looking at 16,000 yards cumulatively, which would put them 3rd all time, just behind Larry Fitz, a guy who played for 16 years in the league. Your prognostication would be correct if all three retire by the age of 35 and put up modest numbers along the way, AND MHJ finishes 2nd or 3rd all time in reception yards. That’s an unlikely and tall ask for both conditions to be met. The yardage alone is likely to debunk what you believe so it’s not even worth getting into TD numbers. Passing them in 4 or 5 years? Only if one of the three is benched or suffers a career ending injury *knock on wood* and MHJ goes on to have unreal production EVERY year. Remember, these three combined for 1700 yards and 8 TDs in their first year together, all of them new to their roles. Smart money says those numbers will improve starting next season. 

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

 

 

 

He is a wizard, though.........so there is that.   He tricked Von Miller and Dawson Knox into betting on themselves when they already had the winning ticket in their hand so I guess it can't be ruled out.

[BillsFanForever19]

20 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

See that's where Beane would have to get a discount from one of his GM buddies like McDermott gave Andy Reid in the Mahomes trade.

 

First, trade the 2 4th round picks and a 5th this year to get a late 3rd rounder.

 

Then 28, 60 and next years #1 gets you inside the top 10 using the McDermott trade value chart(about 20 spots).........then you move up to Arizona with this years 3rd and next years 2nd and 3rd.  

 

Bada bing. 

 

But seriously..........you'd almost have to deal Diggs to Houston and get their two second round picks to have the juice to move up that far.    You could trade Houston your 2026 #1 as a place holder and then they could swap it back for Diggs in June.    I have no idea what kind of value Diggs would even have but, hypothetically, of course.

 

There's 3 teams needing QB's and 2 QB's worth taking high after the first 3 QB picks are gone. So there's heavy competition that will be paying substantially and driving up prices to get into the area we'd need to take Harrison.

 

And then there's the issue of convincing Arizona (or LA for that matter) to hand us an all time talent level prospect at a position of need for them.

 

As well as the fact that Arizona knows that we've consistently been picking late in Round 1, so they have to assume that next year's first will be a late one.

 

There's also a big difference between Cleveland moving from 6 to 21 (15 picks) in the Julio Trade or us moving from 10 to 27 in the Mahomes trade (17 picks) and Arizona moving from 4 to 28 (24 picks).

 

Simply meeting the Trade Chart Value isn't going to cut it. Discounts aren't going to happen. It would have to be an overpay and probably a substantial overpay to get them to consider it.

Edited March 24 by BillsFanForever19

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Brand J said:

Conservatively, if James Cook plays for 10 years and averages 300 yards receiving per season, Shakir plays 10 and averages 600 yards, and Kincaid plays 10 and averages 700 yards,

I don't think this is a conservative estimation at all. Your RB numbers are way off. 3000 career receiving yards?  Do you know how many running backs don't hit that number?  Everyone not named Kamara or CMC.

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

There's 3 teams needing QB's and 2 QB's worth taking high after the first 3 QB picks are gone. So there's heavy competition that will be paying substantially and driving up prices to get into the area we'd need to take Harrison.

 

And then there's the issue of convincing Arizona (or LA for that matter) to hand us an all time talent level prospect at a position of need for them.

 

As well as the fact that Arizona knows that we've consistently been picking late in Round 1, so they have to assume that next year's first will be a late one.

 

There's also a big difference between Cleveland moving from 6 to 21 (15 picks) in the Julio Trade or us moving from 10 to 27 in the Mahomes trade (17 picks) and Arizona moving from 4 to 28 (24 picks).

 

Simply meeting the Trade Chart Value isn't going to cut it. Discounts aren't going to happen. It would have to be an overpay and probably a substantial overpay to get them to consider it.

Dude, it's posts like this that make me feel sorry for Warriorspikes51. You're very rational, but there's just no magic in your soul. 

[Brand J]

Just now, FireChans said:

I don't think this is a conservative estimation at all. Your RB numbers are way off. 3000 career receiving yards?  Do you know how many running backs don't hit that number?  Everyone not named Kamara or CMC.

I think those are relatively low estimates for each player, baseline numbers. Cook is a receiving back in the mold of Kamara. Did you know he had over 400 yards last year despite dropping some nice gainers? Not to mention that when Brady took over offensive playcalling he became far more involved in the pass game. I’m being realistic with my numbers, while you’re already putting MHJ in the hall of fame before he takes a single snap in the NFL and without even knowing who’ll be throwing him the ball. Again, MHJ has next to a zero chance to surpass all 3 in career yardage and total TDs in 4 to 5 years and a less than 10% chance to finish better than all 3 combined when it’s all said and done. He’ll be lucky to surpass his father’s numbers at 14,500 yards and 128 TDs. He’s not gonna have Peyton Manning throwing him the ball. 

[FireChans]

17 minutes ago, Brand J said:

I think those are relatively low estimates for each player, baseline numbers. Cook is a receiving back in the mold of Kamara. Did you know he had over 400 yards last year despite dropping some nice gainers? Not to mention that when Brady took over offensive playcalling he became far more involved in the pass game. I’m being realistic with my numbers, while you’re already putting MHJ in the hall of fame before he takes a single snap in the NFL and without even knowing who’ll be throwing him the ball. Again, MHJ has next to a zero chance to surpass all 3 in career yardage and total TDs in 4 to 5 years and a less than 10% chance to finish better than all 3 combined when it’s all said and done. He’ll be lucky to surpass his father’s numbers at 14,500 yards and 128 TDs. He’s not gonna have Peyton Manning throwing him the ball. 

His big brother Dalvin once had 500 yards receiving in a season. His career is now over, at 1800 yards receiving.

 

Sorry but I think there's a next to zero percent chance James hits 3k receiving. We shall circle back in 5 years and see, if I'm still alive.

 

Also, jut FYI, you're putting Kincaid in the near-HoF with that track. 7000 yards by a TE would be 13th all time.

Edited March 24 by FireChans

[Brand J]

Just now, FireChans said:

His big brother Dalvin once had 500 yards receiving in a season. His career is now over, at 1800 yards receiving.

 

Sorry but I think there's a next to zero percent chance James hits 3k receiving. We shall circle back in 5 years and see, if I'm still alive.

You seem obsessed with the comparisons to Dalvin, as if the situation for both players are the same. James is his own man in his own offense. 3,000 career receiving yards for a receiving back is a conservative number. Marshall Faulk, Larry Centers, and Ronnie Harmon have TWICE that amount. You know who also has at least 3,800 career receiving yards? Keith Byars, Marcus Allen, Tiki Barber, Roger Craig, Herschel Walker, Darren Sproles, LaDanian Tomlinson, Matt Forte, Walter Payton, Thurman Thomas, Warrick Dunn, CMC, Ricky Watters, Alvin Kamara, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Lesean McCoy, Austin Eckler, and a few others. Why this turned into a “James Cook will not reach 3,000 career receiving yards” is because your initial argument was flawed so you had to make it about something else. People say the silliest things on this board. The conservative 16,000 yards MHJ will have to put up to surpass James Cook, Khalil Shakir, AND Dalton Kincaid? That’s a much taller order than 3,000 for Himbo Cook.

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Brand J said:

You seem obsessed with the comparisons to Dalvin, as if the situation for both players are the same. James is his own man in his own offense. 3,000 career receiving yards for a receiving back is a conservative number. Marshall Faulk, Larry Centers, and Ronnie Harmon have TWICE that amount. You know who also has at least 3,800 career receiving yards? Keith Byars, Marcus Allen, Tiki Barber, Roger Craig, Herschel Walker, Darren Sproles, LaDanian Tomlinson, Matt Forte, Walter Payton, Thurman Thomas, Warrick Dunn, CMC, Ricky Watters, Alvin Kamara, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Lesean McCoy, Austin Eckler, and a few others. Why this turned into a “James Cook will not reach 3,000 career receiving yards” is because your initial argument was flawed so you had to make it about something else. People say the silliest things on this board. The conservative 16,000 yards MHJ will have to put up to surpass James Cook, Khalil Shakir, AND Dalton Kincaid? That’s a much taller order than 3,000 for Himbo Cook.

I don't think Cook, Shakir and Kincaid will get to 16000 yards. So I don't think MHJ will have to beat 16000 yards. It's a pretty logical argument to follow.

[Brand J]

13 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I don't think Cook, Shakir and Kincaid will get to 16000 yards. So I don't think MHJ will have to beat 16000 yards. It's a pretty logical argument to follow.

Pretty illogical claim that one player who’s not even in the NFL yet will surpass the combined career numbers for 3 Bills receiving threats. Especially when pointing out that those three combined for over 1,700 yards in their first season together. Again, people on this board say the silliest things. Maybe I’m the fool for trying to engage with them in a factual conversation.

[FireChans]

Just now, Brand J said:

Pretty illogical claim that one player who’s not even in the NFL yet will surpass the combined career numbers for 3 Bills receiving threats. Especially when pointing out that those three combined for over 1,700 yards in their first season together. Again, people on this board say the silliest things. Maybe I’m the fool for trying to engage with them in a factual conversation.

Okay, so if MHJ has close to the same amount of yardage as those three next year (say within ~100-200 yards), will you change your mind? 

[Brand J]

Just now, FireChans said:

Okay, so if MHJ has close to the same amount of yardage as those three next year (say within ~100-200 yards), will you change your mind? 

It’ll be fun to look at and revisit, but no, it wouldn’t change my mind. If MHJ finishes with 1,500 yards and the Bills trio goes for 1,800, we’re still talking about career longevity where anything can happen. You’re putting all your stake in ONE player, when I have THREE. In other words, should something happen to one on both sides, I have two more that can continue putting up stats while your guy sits in the training room. Rice took 19 years to put up those ridiculous stats. Fitzgerald took 14. Both were largely iron men and they had to be to post those numbers. We don’t know what MHJ will be, he doesn’t even have a QB right now. I do know the Bills trio had a pretty good year last year and injury notwithstanding, will more than likely improve on those numbers. 

[FireChans]

42 minutes ago, Brand J said:

It’ll be fun to look at and revisit, but no, it wouldn’t change my mind. If MHJ finishes with 1,500 yards and the Bills trio goes for 1,800, we’re still talking about career longevity where anything can happen. You’re putting all your stake in ONE player, when I have THREE. In other words, should something happen to one on both sides, I have two more that can continue putting up stats while your guy sits in the training room. Rice took 19 years to put up those ridiculous stats. Fitzgerald took 14. Both were largely iron men and they had to be to post those numbers. We don’t know what MHJ will be, he doesn’t even have a QB right now. I do know the Bills trio had a pretty good year last year and injury notwithstanding, will more than likely improve on those numbers. 

And none of them individually have the chance to outproduce MHJ. Which is the whole point lol

[Brand J]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

And none of them individually have the chance to outproduce MHJ. Which is the whole point lol

But collectively they will which renders your “argument” moot.

[FireChans]

47 minutes ago, Brand J said:

But collectively they will which renders your “argument” moot.

We shall see!

[BillsFanForever19]

7 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Dude, it's posts like this that make me feel sorry for Warriorspikes51. You're very rational, but there's just no magic in your soul. 

 

Hey, I didn't say it's a 0% chance or that I wouldn't be happy to have him. I was just saying that simply meeting the value chart in this situation won't be enough. In the Top 5, especially when QB's are in play with heavy competition, and an all world talent like MHJ at play - that chart goes out the window.

 

To get them to go from 4 to 28, beat out other teams trying to get up there, and get them to give up a talent like MHJ - the buy in for us is probably 3 1st's just to have a seat at the table.

Edited March 24 by BillsFanForever19

[Dr. Who]

3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Hey, I didn't say it's a 0% chance or that I wouldn't be happy to have him. I was just saying that simply meeting the value chart in this situation won't be enough. In the Top 5, especially when QB's are in play with heavy competition, and an all world talent like MHJ at play - that chart goes out the window.

 

To get them to go from 4 to 28, beat out other teams trying to get up there, and get them to give up a talent like MHJ - the buy in for us is probably 3 1st's just to have a seat at the table.

No, you're right, of course. I was just poking fun.

[Alphadawg7]

Lol...can't believe this thread reached 10 pages about a player there is 0% chance will even be a Buffalo Bill this draft.

[Buffalo03]

18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lol...can't believe this thread reached 10 pages about a player there is 0% chance will even be a Buffalo Bill this draft.

If Harrison threatens to expose naked pictures of the other 31 GMs, there's a chance

[Warriorspikes51]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Lol...can't believe this thread reached 10 pages about a player there is 0% chance will even be a Buffalo Bill this draft.

the mathematical probability the Bills will draft him is higher than 0% 😎

[Alphadawg7]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

And none of them individually have the chance to outproduce MHJ. Which is the whole point lol

 

How is that a real point when they don't have the same role or targets as individuals as MHJ will initially see as a primary target for his new team?  lol

 

NOTE:  Shakir averaged an insane 13.5 yards per TARGET.  That is crazy good, that is not per catch, that is per target.  And he had something like an 87% catch rate too.  So what if he got 120 targets and MHJ got 120 targets?  May not be as big of a gap as you seem to think if Shakir continues that elite level of efficiency and effectiveness.  But he will never see that many targets on a team with Diggs, Samuel, himself, an early drafted rookie, Kincaid, and Cook...way too many weapons on this team behind the top target guy Diggs for Allen to spread the ball around.  

 

MHJ may prove to be the best player between himself, Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook 5 years from now...but that does not mean Shakir, Kincaid and Cook are not capable of being very good to great players themselves given what they have already shown in their short careers.  And on the flip side, MHJ hasn't proven anything at the next level either.  Sammy Watkins was supposed to be the best WR in a loaded WR draft and then proved he wasn't anything more than a middling WR2.  

Edited March 24 by Alphadawg7

[Kirby Jackson]

MHJ is a monster. He’s EASILY 1200 yards and 8-10 Tds as a rookie. If the Bills had a chance to get him they’d be crazy not to. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that’s realistic. I can’t see the Bills getting higher than 9 with the Bears. I think that they’ll be making that call if Odunze, Nabers or MHJ were still on the board. I just don’t see it as likely. 

[FireChans]

54 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

How is that a real point when they don't have the same role or targets as individuals as MHJ will initially see as a primary target for his new team?  lol

 

NOTE:  Shakir averaged an insane 13.5 yards per TARGET.  That is crazy good, that is not per catch, that is per target.  And he had something like an 87% catch rate too.  So what if he got 120 targets and MHJ got 120 targets?  May not be as big of a gap as you seem to think if Shakir continues that elite level of efficiency and effectiveness.  But he will never see that many targets on a team with Diggs, Samuel, himself, an early drafted rookie, Kincaid, and Cook...way too many weapons on this team behind the top target guy Diggs for Allen to spread the ball around.  

 

MHJ may prove to be the best player between himself, Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook 5 years from now...but that does not mean Shakir, Kincaid and Cook are not capable of being very good to great players themselves given what they have already shown in their short careers.  And on the flip side, MHJ hasn't proven anything at the next level either.  Sammy Watkins was supposed to be the best WR in a loaded WR draft and then proved he wasn't anything more than a middling WR2.  

Agreed. Which is why I think there's a decent chance MHJ outproduces them.

[Gregg]

I just hope the Jets who have the #10 pick don't put together a trade package to move up and get him. G. Wilson and MHJ would be a pain in the ass for the rest of the division especially if Rodgers can stay healthy.

[djp14150]

On 3/23/2024 at 7:54 PM, Dr. Who said:

That was an outrageously low pay for KC to move up, for Mahomes yet.

No one's going to reciprocate for the Bills' try to move up, and this time the cost would be for a top 5 pick.

The deal closely matches the pick chart values.

[Dr. Who]

50 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

The deal closely matches the pick chart values.

That chart doesn't take into account specific situations. I think a move up from #27 to #10 when you know the target is a QB ought to bring a lot more. If you think it was fine, that's your prerogative.

[Bills!Win!]

For nostalgias sake, I hope the colts draft him if we can’t. Dad was a patriot killer