FA signings of Samuel and Hollins impact on the WR draft strategy?

[Dr. Who]

20 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Center.  I think the top 2 are elite - I don’t know with certainty what WR 7 does for us.  
 

I do know an elite Center makes the entire offense especially Allen better.   

There's another thread where some bright folks talk about this, but part of hitting on a first rounder is the cost control at a position. If you hit on a future WR1, you're essentially saving 25 to 30 million on the cap that can be distributed elsewhere in constructing the team. You're not getting that kind of savings taking a Center in the first round. I also pointed out in another thread that there are at least 5 solid Center choices that can start in the NFL. You don't have to take Powers-Johnson to get a superior Center, and he's the only one likely to be chosen in the first.

 

Frazier and Van Pran may go in the second. You could possibly get Limmer or Bortolini day 3, but for sure, you don't have to take a Center on day 1. Just because the position would make a significant difference doesn't mean it has to be addressed at the top of the draft. That is foolish management of draft assets.

[ColoradoBills]

Other:  Take a WR at 28 or with the 2nd round pick.  Depends how the board falls and IF there is a low value trade for the best

impact player in the 1st.

[Einstein's Dog]

20 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I wouldn't trade up just because of KC, even though they are a significant rival in the Conference. You'll have to trade up to get Thomas, imo. You might be able to wait it out for Mitchell, but I think there's a drop off after him. I like Legette. Some might like Coleman. You could wait on them or go for Rice or Walker later. This is all assuming your target is a big X type receiver. The larger point is that I surmise if you want one of the round 1 WRs and you are sitting at #28, folks will know, and act to get ahead of you if the player is sufficiently prized.

 

You can always gamble, or if there are enough players at a position that you value more-or-less the same, just pick whose there. 

If there are enough players that you value more-or-less the same, it might be best to try and move down. 

 

For instance if X Legette/ K Coleman are rated the same (and even A Mitchell who they may not rate as high as outsiders due to attitude/work ethic/team culture) getting another pick may be worth the small difference in their preference of those players.

 

[Paup 1995MVP]

1 hour ago, HaldimandBills said:

Guys let's not over think this.

 

Beane is going receiver Round 1 unless he gets a haul of picks that allows him to trade back and take a top ranked receiver early in round 2. 

 

Hollins replaces Sherfield and Samuel replaces Hardy. Still no Gabe replacement on the roster. 

 

Beane isn't dumb. Bills accumulated multiple injuries last year and I believe a big part of it was because the Bills were scratching and clawing all season in every game due to the offense inability to put teams away early. The Bills lack of offensive talent was glaring and it became obvious when Gabe went down and we had to start Sherfield. 

 

The defense is what it is. They haven't been able to stop a nose bleed regardless of who the Bills have put out there. Beane has spent all this money on the dline and secondary and all its amounted to is Mahomes and Burrow marching up and down the field on the Bills in the playoffs. 

 

Well if the Bills are going to be marched on regardless why not try out young talent who typically stay healthier over the stretch of a long season and see if they can band together and play better come playoff time? 

 

Meanwhile on offense why not actually load it up and put pressure on other teams forcing their offenses to be one dimensional giving our defense easier looks? 

 

It is time we became a five threat offense. Good at running the ball. Good tight ends. Drafting one of these deep threat studs in Round 1 putting pressure on teams with the deep ball. Having Diggs, Samuel, Kincaid and Shakir for intermediate, short, and bubble routes. Then of course still have Josh Allen scrambling ability. 

 

Oline is finally not a bag of trash with the emergence of Torrence, Brown, and McGovern to go with Dawkins. 

 

Good things are coming. Bills offense is going  to go to another level. Just need that deep threat round 1 receiver and another big body rb who doesn't fade down the stretch. 

I like your analysis.  How many dominant pass rushers are there even. We have been marginal drafting D linemen at best.  Rousseau and Epenesa are decent to above average.  But neither will ever be Bruce or Demarcus Ware.  Maybe Jerry Hughes if we are lucky.  But that’s how most pass rushers end up. We can find that later on.  Pass rush can be manufactured.  Get a top WR in the 1st round and let’s dominate w Josh.  We have an excellent LB group and can add some help to the secondary. Because Poyer and Hyde were too slow last year.   Get some D lineman who can really stop the run.  And the rest will fall into place.  No one plays defense like the 85 Bears anymore.  Suffocate the run and the deep pass, and teams are not scoring a lot of points on you.  And dominate on offense w high powered weapons.  

[nedboy7]

Claiming Samuel replaces Hardy or Sherfield is completely undervaluing how they see Samuel IMO.  He will be a top WR on the team.  I dont think Bean is in anyway locked into a position at the draft.  So many moving variables.  I have no problem with him picking a WR in the second if the value isnt there.

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

If there are enough players that you value more-or-less the same, it might be best to try and move down. 

 

For instance if X Legette/ K Coleman are rated the same (and even A Mitchell who they may not rate as high as outsiders due to attitude/work ethic/team culture) getting another pick may be worth the small difference in their preference of those players.

 

That also depends, of course, on what the trade offer is, but everyone typically assumes getting a third back, which we lack.

 

I've read online some of that rumor about Mitchell. Obviously, I don't have inside information, and I assume Beane will exercise due diligence.

Wisdom has to make a judgment that takes into consideration multiple factors, and it could just as easily decide to take a risk on some questionable 

aspects if there is a feeling that it is not a matter of set character, or if the degree of talent and potential still has a strong capacity to pay off.

 

There's an art to it, beyond anything that can be purely quantified. On the outside, I think Mitchell can be as good as anyone at WR in this draft, so

there would have to be substantial red flags to drop him from consideration in the first for me.

[ToGoGo]

Agree. I think this is the draft that decides if we become a Super Bowl winner the next 3-5 years or a perennial divisional loser. 
 

I think Adonai Mitchell is the target. 

[GASabresIUFan]

Beane has never drafted a receiver before the 4th round.  He hit on Davis in the 4th and Shakir in the 5th.  He did spend a 1st on Diggs who was a 5th rd pick in 2015.  FYI Diggs and Shakir had nearly identical pre-draft combine and prospect scores their draft years.

 

He broke the mold last year getting Kincaid in the first.  Given the WR depth in this draft, will Beane step up and grab someone early? I truly hope so.

 

I agree with an earlier poster about Hollins not impacting the draft decisions. He is going to be primarily a special teams ace.  
 

How they feel about Shorter may impact whether they draft a second receiver in the later rounds. 

Edited March 17 by GASabresIUFan

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

As the WR room stands right now, it is average even with Diggs, we really should get as close to a WR 1b as we can in the draft at 28, we need to stop short changing the offense in this regard. 

Question is, who is WR1b?  It appears to be a class that has 3 excellent prospects at the top (Harrison, Nabers, Odunze), the 1 guy in the next tier (Thomas Jr).  Beyond them, I think the candidates that have potential to be “wr1” (whatever that is) are Mitchell and maybe Coleman (but I’m not even sure Coleman will be good in the league).  
 

While I love McConkey he may be more complimentary as I think Legette probably is (Legette is explosive and powerful, I don’t know that he will be a high volume receiver).  I think Worthy will be dangerous, but not wr1 at his size.  Likewise, I don’t see Franklin or Walker as lead wr types.

 

Instead of focusing on Diggs’ eventual replacement, I think they should be looking to have a group that works together among Kincaid, Samuel, Diggs and Shakir and Knox.  The missing element now is the big boundary guy who can threaten deep and make the contested catches - ability to be a red zone jump ball guy is a plus.  

[BuffaloBill]

I think Beane is following his tried and true strategy which is to try to enter the draft without a glaring need on the roster.  I think the Bills take BPA at #28.  My Guess is that it is likely to be one of three positions DT, Edge or WR listed in order of most likely pick.  If not WR at #28 I do think they will get one in RD #2.   

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Question is, who is WR1b?  It appears to be a class that has 3 excellent prospects at the top (Harrison, Nabers, Odunze), the 1 guy in the next tier (Thomas Jr).  Beyond them, I think the candidates that have potential to be “wr1” (whatever that is) are Mitchell and maybe Coleman (but I’m not even sure Coleman will be good in the league).  
 

While I love McConkey he may be more complimentary as I think Legette probably is (Legette is explosive and powerful, I don’t know that he will be a high volume receiver).  I think Worthy will be dangerous, but not wr1 at his size.  Likewise, I don’t see Franklin or Walker as lead wr types.

 

Instead of focusing on Diggs’ eventual replacement, I think they should be looking to have a group that works together among Kincaid, Samuel, Diggs and Shakir and Knox.  The missing element now is the big boundary guy who can threaten deep and make the contested catches - ability to be a red zone jump ball guy is a plus.  

Yup, 👍

[SWATeam]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Instead of focusing on Diggs’ eventual replacement, I think they should be looking to have a group that works together among Kincaid, Samuel, Diggs and Shakir and Knox.  The missing element now is the big boundary guy who can threaten deep and make the contested catches - ability to be a red zone jump ball guy is a plus.  

This is how you get in trouble IMO.  Take the best player.  Don't pass on say a higher rated McKonkey for a lesser "X type" just to fill the need.  Especially with premium picks.

[Since1981]

Could 17 have restructured under specific premise that Beane help O? WR/draft. I’m still of the impression that top tier O FAs like WR can’t be a target due to BUF has a weather premium. Move up in draft for weather captive WR

Edited March 17 by Since1981

[Dr. Who]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

I think Beane is following his tried and true strategy which is to try to enter the draft without a glaring need on the roster.  I think the Bills take BPA at #28.  My Guess is that it is likely to be one of three positions DT, Edge or WR listed in order of most likely pick.  If not WR at #28 I do think they will get one in RD #2.   

That tried and true method gets you a consistent playoff team. It doesn't really get you to Conference championship games or the Super Bowl. The edge players at #28 are at best typical late first round prospects (I don't think they are even that, really.) Unless you are talking about Sweat, who is a second round fella, the first round DTs mainly play the same role as Ed Oliver. You can get solid DTs in the second, and some decent ones later. I think the value on the D side late first is more likely to be at CB. If Cooper Dejean is sitting there, I can see Beane pulling the trigger, though he's a safety in the NFL.

 

Still believe WR is the best option, and still think the ruthless cutting away of overpriced veterans with solid history in the locker room suggests Beane is moving out of his comfort zone. 

[pennstate10]

6 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I don’t know about Coleman.  I’m not the “he has to run 4.4 to be good” guy, but Coleman’s speed is pretty questionable for round 1 and while he is smooth, he lacks the lateral quickness to really shake coverage - of course those are just my unqualified opinions.

Coleman is basically KelvinBenjamin. Not fast, not quick. Good ball skills, good hands. But contrary to popular opinion, not a great contested catch guy.

[pennstate10]

14 minutes ago, Since1981 said:

Could 17 have restructured under specific premise that Beane help O? WR/draft. I’m still of the impression that top tier O FAs like WR can’t be a target due to BUF has a weather premium. Move up in draft for weather captive WR

It’s my understanding that the standard Bills contract says Bills can change salary into a bonus at will, without players consent. 
 

Of course, I think Bills ptobably do notify players prior to restructure, so player doesn’t find out on twitter. 

[Herc11]

17 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Take the highest ranked prospect on their board at a position of need.  

Unless they trade pretty far up there isn’t going to be a WR at 28 worth the pick.  At that point it will be the 7th-9th best receiver.  

I highly doubt 6-7 WRs get drafted before 28

[gjv]

I'm hoping a top Edge Rusher like Jered Verse or Laiatu Latu fall enough that Beane can afford to move up to draft.

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

Agree. I think this is the draft that decides if we become a Super Bowl winner the next 3-5 years or a perennial divisional loser. 
 

I think Adonai Mitchell is the target. 

Thomas or Mitchell please....

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

I doubt a single thing changes, they still need a future replacement for Diggs and if I know this, you guys know this, then all of the Bills staff knows this as well. This is 1 of the best classes in quite awhile for the WR position and it wouldn't make much sense not to address it this year. Now I'm not saying it has to be round 1, maybe they like Ladd McKonkey, Keon Coleman or Ja'Lynn Polk who arent viewed as 1st round talents but might be in a different draft class since this one is pretty stacked.