Allen, the Super Bowl "window," and the KC hurdle

[ProcessImproverMan]

8 hours ago, QB Bills said:

The difference between Manning and Allen is that Allen has been excellent in the playoffs, including against the Chiefs. Manning was often shut down by Belichick's defense and earned his share of the blame for losing those games.

 

That's what makes this all so maddening. Allen has no margin for error because he has next to no help in big games. Not to mention the clapping goof on the sidelines crapping his pants when the pressure turns up.

Yep. Allen had basically the greatest post season run statistically the year of the 13 seconds game. Brady didn't approach those stats during his super bowl runs for a stretch of post season games and neither did Manning. The difference is both teams had a defense that could bail them out at different points, especially at times when the offenses looked bad (Manning had poor statistical post seasons both years he won the Super Bowl and Brady had some poor statistical games where the run game and defense carried him) , while Allen couldn't  even rely on his defense to stop the Chiefs for 13 seconds one year and on his defense to even sack or INT Mahomes once. McDermott still had first round picks playing on the defensive line against the Chiefs this year and our top secondary players playing and couldn't sack or INT Mahomes ones. Year in and year out McDermott is given more resources for his defense than the offense gets and yet without Allen pulling so many wins out of his ass, we would be terrible record wise. Hell Allen left the field 4x with the lead this year for the Bills defense to then blow every game at the end. 

 

 

[Buffalo03]

11 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Agreed .

 

Bills couldn’t stop shooting themselves in the foot in many games this year, lost their best defensive player early in the season. Had a high priced defensive player who will likely only be on the team for one more season basically be a no show for the entire year, found themselves at 6-6 and still ended up with the 2 seed. 
 

All signs point to the Bills being perennial contenders. If ever there was a year for the Bills to miss the playoffs or be one and done in the playoffs it would have been this year .

We shoot ourselves in the foot more than any other team I have seen. We haven't lost a game by more than one score since 2021. It's literally been a play here or play there and had we done a couple things differently, we could beat teams by 2 scores every week. Imagine if we played a clean game nearly every single time. We would be unstoppable. It annoys me when I see us only up 6-3 and we have 2 mistakes in the red zone and a missed field goal and I'm always saying, this could be a 21-3 or 17-3 game right now. It's so frustrating 

Edited February 10 by Buffalo03

[ProcessTruster]

11 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

beating the chiefs is 100 % on the defense.

 

Mcdermott's group comes up short every year, low scoring games, high scoring games...doesn't matter his defense comes up small.

 

and now they are essentially starting over on the defensive line which will take up precious resources, replacing precious resources that have already been spent on the defensive line.

 

it feels like mcdermott is in the same spot tony dungy was in when he was in tampa...he just had no answers and could not get over the hump.

 

hopefully they have an A+ draft and find some productive players in mid level free agency.  

 

So far their answer to the defense not getting over the hump was to overpay for von miller who then was injured and is not the same player anymore and they are stuck with him.  He was supposed to be their charles haley, reggie white or jevon kearse to get them over the hump and he has been an expensive dud.

 

They have dug quite a hole with the roster defensively and with a bad contract to miller.  I am not sure how you rebuild an entire defensive line in one offseason.

 

 

yeah unfortunate all the defensive starters were out vs the Chiefs.  that was the moment , and none of the defense was on the field.   

 

is what it is.   Roster is great, but if they're not on the field for a single elimination tournament game, that's usually when you go home.   really unfortunate.   Injuries matter.  

[QB Bills]

21 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

yeah unfortunate all the defensive starters were out vs the Chiefs.  that was the moment , and none of the defense was on the field.   

 

is what it is.   Roster is great, but if they're not on the field for a single elimination tournament game, that's usually when you go home.   really unfortunate.   Injuries matter.  

Can't tell if this is sarcasm. All the defensive starters were out?

[nedboy7]

I was wondering if we were gonna discuss this again today. 

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

I was wondering if we were gonna discuss this again today. 

Good thing the offseason is almost over

[dpberr]

The defense is old, slow and plays zone.

 

KC are master craftsmen at exploiting each of those things.

 

Bills need to be skilled at man and zone, get younger and quicker. It can be done.

[BarleyNY]

16 hours ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:

He's only 27. Peyton Manning didn't win his first playoff game until he was two months shy of 28. Manning was 0-6 in his first six games against Brady; Allen was 3-3 in his first six against Mahomes.

 

I have my issues with how the team has been constructed since he was drafted, but let's not get crazy about any window being "wasted" or dwindling.

 

I think there is a kind of roster window that extends through 2024. There will be a big turnover of older, highly paid vets by then. We may see the start of it this offseason, but next is the big pivot point. 

 

Allen’s window will be open for quite some time. The way I see it, he will likely have a career of 12-15 years including development and quality QB play. He’d be aged 33-36 at the end of that span. We are 6 years into that so while his window is wide open for years to come, we have already burned through 40-50% of his career. Tick tock. 

[transplantbillsfan]

16 hours ago, Buddy Hix said:

Allen plays a physical game, so comparing him to a pocket passer seems disingenuous.

 

Regardless, if Marino didn’t win one, nothing is guaranteed. 

 

John Elway played at a high level until he was 38. In fact, he was the Super Bowl MVP at that age.

 

Brett Favre also had a physical style of play and he had over 200 consecutive starts and had one of the best seasons of his career at age 40.

 

Allen is the current Iron Man of the NFL and it's not even close. He has around 90 consecutive starts. The next closest QB has less than a quarter of that.

 

Josh Allen still has more years of high level QB play in front of him than behind him.

[Doc Brown]

4 hours ago, QB Bills said:

Can't tell if this is sarcasm. All the defensive starters were out?

It was more not having our two starting LB's (Milano and Bernard) specifically against KC that really hurt us.  Reid/Mahomes just kept attacking the middle of the field as Klein and Dodson are poor coverage linebackers.  I doubt Dodson was even at 100%.  Seeing Klein getting burned over and over again by Kelce was maddening.  Especially frustrating because we finally caught them in the playoffs without Tyreek or any legitimate WR weapon outside of Kelce.

[Fan in Chicago]

13 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

It was more not having our two starting LB's (Milano and Bernard) specifically against KC that really hurt us.  Reid/Mahomes just kept attacking the middle of the field as Klein and Dodson are poor coverage linebackers.  I doubt Dodson was even at 100%.  Seeing Klein getting burned over and over again by Kelce was maddening.  Especially frustrating because we finally caught them in the playoffs without Tyreek or any legitimate WR weapon outside of Kelce.

The TOP was very high for us. The issue, v as has been discussed ad nauseum, is that we didn't end too many drives in TDs. 

Even with D talent, we have shown to be incapable of stopping them in the playoffs. That's why I think the solution is to load up on O and just score a lot. 

You can bet that Reid will draft WRs in the upcoming draft and attempt to stay ahead. We have to leap frog, not just keep trying to catch up

[Billl]

13 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

You can bet that Reid will draft WRs in the upcoming draft and attempt to stay ahead. We have to leap frog, not just keep trying to catch up

Speaking of that, Beane should seriously consider trading up in the draft if he’s targeting a WR.  Kansas City has shown that they are willing to jump Buffalo in order to grab the guy they want.

[Doc Brown]

46 minutes ago, Buffalo619 said:

We have McShottenheimer.  We are at full potential  

Dungy's time as the Colts head coach is the best comparison.  Both were defensive minds who had QB's playing at elite levels over a four year time period (Dungy ( 2001-2004) and McDermott (2020-2023)).  Dungy had a 3-4 playoff record and McDermott had a 5-4 playoff record over that span.  Dungy couldn't get past the Patriots and Steelers.  McDermott can't get past the Chiefs and Bengals.  Lets hope McDermott's fifth year with a QB playing at an elite level mirrors Dungy's.  If not than Pegula should seriously consider making a change.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

19 hours ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:

He's only 27. Peyton Manning didn't win his first playoff game until he was two months shy of 28. Manning was 0-6 in his first six games against Brady; Allen was 3-3 in his first six against Mahomes.

 

I have my issues with how the team has been constructed since he was drafted, but let's not get crazy about any window being "wasted" or dwindling.

As long as Allen is healthy, the SB window will always be open. The main problem is the defense and the unlucky injuries to star players. I believe the planets will align one of these years and the Bills will win one. McDermott coaching also needs to improve. 

[Billl]

5 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Dungy's time as the Colts head coach is the best comparison.  Both were defensive minds who had QB's playing at elite levels over a four year time period (Dungy ( 2001-2004) and McDermott (2020-2023)).  Dungy had a 3-4 playoff record and McDermott had a 5-4 playoff record over that span.  Dungy couldn't get past the Patriots and Steelers.  McDermott can't get past the Chiefs and Bengals.  Lets hope McDermott's fifth year with a QB playing at an elite level mirrors Dungy's.  If not than Pegula should seriously consider making a change.

I will never understand why McDermott catches so many of the arrows when Beane keeps hamstringing him with lesser players.  Three years ago, Beane drafted Epenesa and Basham, Veach drafted Bolton and Humphrey.  A year later, Buffalo needed a CB.  Beane let KC jump him to take McDuffie while Buffalo traded up for Elam.  Then Kansas City still drafted Karlaftis a few picks later.   Last year, Buffalo needed a pass catcher, so Beane traded up for Kincaid in the first round. Kansas City traded up for Rice in the second round.

 

You can’t expect McDermott to outcoach Andy Reid.  He’s a HOF coach.  If you’re going to beat him, you have to have equal or better talent, and Beane has been getting outmaneuvered year after year on draft day by their biggest obstacle.  Even this year, they’re going into the draft with only two picks in the first two days of the draft because Beane had to trade away a third round pick for a CB whose about to turn 30.  

 

I just don’t see how this is a failing of coaching when the GM is getting schooled every April.

[McBean]

19 hours ago, Patrick Fitzryan said:

He's only 27. Peyton Manning didn't win his first playoff game until he was two months shy of 28. Manning was 0-6 in his first six games against Brady; Allen was 3-3 in his first six against Mahomes.

 

I have my issues with how the team has been constructed since he was drafted, but let's not get crazy about any window being "wasted" or dwindling.

if we don’t make the Super Bowl next year, Josh Allen better sit down with Pegula and tell him to pick between him or McClap.

 

It’s time for Josh to do what MJ and Brady would’ve done 2 years ago and give the owner an ultimatum.

17 minutes ago, Billl said:

I will never understand why McDermott catches so many of the arrows when Beane keeps hamstringing him with lesser players.  Three years ago, Beane drafted Epenesa and Basham, Veach drafted Bolton and Humphrey.  A year later, Buffalo needed a CB.  Beane let KC jump him to take McDuffie while Buffalo traded up for Elam.  Then Kansas City still drafted Karlaftis a few picks later.   Last year, Buffalo needed a pass catcher, so Beane traded up for Kincaid in the first round. Kansas City traded up for Rice in the second round.

 

You can’t expect McDermott to outcoach Andy Reid.  He’s a HOF coach.  If you’re going to beat him, you have to have equal or better talent, and Beane has been getting outmaneuvered year after year on draft day by their biggest obstacle.  Even this year, they’re going into the draft with only two picks in the first two days of the draft because Beane had to trade away a third round pick for a CB whose about to turn 30.  

 

I just don’t see how this is a failing of coaching when the GM is getting schooled every April.

lol if you think Brandon Beane is the top guy in this organization and making the decisions.

Edited February 10 by McBean

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 hours ago, dpberr said:

The defense is old, slow and plays zone.

 

KC are master craftsmen at exploiting each of those things.

 

Bills need to be skilled at man and zone, get younger and quicker. It can be done.

Exactly. "Running it back" is fine if you won a Super Bowl, but we haven't even gotten to one.

 

We have a core roster outside of. DL who is a pure Alpha like somone named Watt or Bosa, we have to draft one of those guys. And maybe a shutdown type corner. ( and please don't say Tre, he is pretty much done even as a #1 CB with his injuries).  

 

We need to address am inpact WR. And no Diggs isn't that anymore. Sorry to his fans, but he isn't, and we need to draft that guy. We also need to draft better WR depth.  Addres the Defense with youth across the board esp,DL and CB.

[Doc Brown]

25 minutes ago, Billl said:

I will never understand why McDermott catches so many of the arrows when Beane keeps hamstringing him with lesser players.  Three years ago, Beane drafted Epenesa and Basham, Veach drafted Bolton and Humphrey.  A year later, Buffalo needed a CB.  Beane let KC jump him to take McDuffie while Buffalo traded up for Elam.  Then Kansas City still drafted Karlaftis a few picks later.   Last year, Buffalo needed a pass catcher, so Beane traded up for Kincaid in the first round. Kansas City traded up for Rice in the second round.

 

You can’t expect McDermott to outcoach Andy Reid.  He’s a HOF coach.  If you’re going to beat him, you have to have equal or better talent, and Beane has been getting outmaneuvered year after year on draft day by their biggest obstacle.  Even this year, they’re going into the draft with only two picks in the first two days of the draft because Beane had to trade away a third round pick for a CB whose about to turn 30.  

 

I just don’t see how this is a failing of coaching when the GM is getting schooled every April.

Because of 13 seconds and being thoroughly outcoached in every facet in the Bengals playoff game last year.  Both were massive failures on McDermott's part.  Our roster was good enough to beat KC this year too.  It's been good enough the last three years to beat them in the regular season.  It's easy to nitpick draft moves that didn't pan out but the fact is Beane has built a Super Bowl caliber roster the last three seasons.

Edited February 10 by Doc Brown

[Billl]

16 minutes ago, McBean said:

if we don’t make the Super Bowl next year, Josh Allen better sit down with Pegula and tell him to pick between him or McClap.

 

It’s time for Josh to do what MJ and Brady would’ve done 2 years ago and give the owner an ultimatum.

lol if you think Brandon Beane is the top guy in this organization and making the decisions.

Remember when Buffalo traded the pick that was used to draft Mahomes to Kansas City because McDermott couldn’t draft a QB until Beane got there?

4 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Because of 13 seconds and being thoroughly outcoached in every facet in the Bengals playoff game last year.  Both were massive failures on McDermott's part.  Our roster was good enough to beat KC this year too.  It's been good enough the last three years to beat them in the regular season.  It's easy to nitpick draft moves that didn't pan out but the fact is Beane has built a Super Bowl caliber roster the last three seasons.

The Bills weren’t outcoached last year in the playoffs.  They were punched in the face by a team that was bigger, faster, and stronger than they were.  I totally disagree with the notion that Beane has built a Super Bowl caliber roster over the past three seasons.  Given that this thread is about hurdling KC, when is the last time Beane drafted better than Veach?  The disparity in drafting over the last 3 years is enormous.

Edited February 10 by Billl

[Aussie Joe]

26 minutes ago, Billl said:

I will never understand why McDermott catches so many of the arrows when Beane keeps hamstringing him with lesser players.  Three years ago, Beane drafted Epenesa and Basham, Veach drafted Bolton and Humphrey.  A year later, Buffalo needed a CB.  Beane let KC jump him to take McDuffie while Buffalo traded up for Elam.  Then Kansas City still drafted Karlaftis a few picks later.   Last year, Buffalo needed a pass catcher, so Beane traded up for Kincaid in the first round. Kansas City traded up for Rice in the second round.

 

You can’t expect McDermott to outcoach Andy Reid.  He’s a HOF coach.  If you’re going to beat him, you have to have equal or better talent, and Beane has been getting outmaneuvered year after year on draft day by their biggest obstacle.  Even this year, they’re going into the draft with only two picks in the first two days of the draft because Beane had to trade away a third round pick for a CB whose about to turn 30.  

 

I just don’t see how this is a failing of coaching when the GM is getting schooled every April.

Kincaid is fine …just had the 5th best rookie year ever for a TE….I expect be better next year ..

 

Beane has also drafted Cook, Torrence and Bernard the last 2 years …