Joe Brady Officially Promoted as Bills OC!

[Warcodered]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

I just don't think the evidence on the field over the last several weeks of the regular season and the two games in the postseason match the notion that McDermott is "conservative" or wants the Bills to play a safe, no-risk offense.

Once upon a time, I may have agreed with that statement. But McDermott's coaching has evolved tremendously, and his aggressiveness along with it. Everything that goes with the idea of being an aggressive (rather than conservative) coach, McDermott has been doing from midseason on. He's constantly near the top of the "goes for it on 4th down when he should" charts. He's been going for it on 4th down on his own side of the field, even early in games, quite often. He has overseen an offense that for four straight years now is near the top of the league in passing frequency. He himself said in his season ending press conference that he believes you pass to win in this league. 

Yes, at times he's mentioned wanting to run the ball more effectively and to stop turning the ball over. I don't think either of those qualify as "conservative" thinking, though. I think 32 out of 32 NFL head coaches want their team to run the ball effectively and to take care of the football. And as I said, there's a time I would have agreed with the "McDermott is a conservative coach" idea, but that time has passed. All the evidence on the field in recent weeks simply does not back it up any longer. He's become pretty damned aggressive in his approach. And mind you, I'm no McDermott apologist. After the Broncos game, I wanted him fired. I'm STILL not convinced he's the right man for the job long term. But fair is fair, and to continue to call McDermott a conservative coach who wants to play it safe no longer feels fair or, for that matter, accurate.

Yeah people keep saying McDermott wants to run all the time because he was always talking about needing to run better, because we needed to be able to run better for such a long time.

[Peter]

I will leave this here for your enjoyment:

 

[Logic]

8 minutes ago, Peter said:

I will leave this here for your enjoyment:

 

The move from Dorsey to Brady has to be one of the weirdest things I've ever witnessed in football. Specifically:

All of the analytics favored Dorsey, but if you watched his offense in real time, you saw a lack of logical sequencing, layering, and a general lack of feel for the game. You saw an offense that got stuck in neutral too often, did illogical things, became stale for long stretches, and ultimately failed to score enough points on a consistent basis.

Meanwhile, all of the analytics took a dip once Brady came aboard. Pretty much any notable measure of success from an analytics standpoint was WORSE under Brady than Dorsey. And yet, if you watched the offense under Brady as compared to Dorsey, you suddenly saw a plan, a logic, the aforementioned sequencing and layering, better organization, streamlining of the playbook, greater offensive consistency, and ultimately, more points being scored on a more consistent basis. 

Ken Dorsey was an analytics darling as a playcaller, but in the "real world" of football, the offense often seemed broken and basic.

Joe Brady was NOT so much of an analytics darling, and analytics guys will insist that the Bills offense got "worse" under him, but in the "real world" of football, the offense suddenly seemed to work better, more often, and more consistently.

Absolutely bizarre. I can't explain it, but I CAN tell you what my eyes saw very clearly: the offense seemed to clearly work better and be more productive and consistent under Joe Brady.

 

Edited January 29 by Logic

[Warcodered]

9 minutes ago, Logic said:

The move from Dorsey to Brady has to be one of the weirdest things I've ever witnessed in football. Specifically:

All of the analytics favored Dorsey, but if you watched his offense in real time, you saw a lack of logical sequencing, layering, and a general lack of feel for the game. You saw an offense that got stuck in neutral too often, did illogical things, became stale for long stretches, and ultimately failed to score enough points on a consistent basis.

Meanwhile, all of the analytics took a dip once Brady came aboard. Pretty much any notable measure of success from an analytics standpoint was WORSE under Brady than Dorsey. And yet, if you watched the offense under Brady as compared to Dorsey, you suddenly saw a plan, a logic, the aforementioned sequencing and layering, better organization, streamlining of the playbook, greater offensive consistency, and ultimately, more points being scored on a more consistent basis. 

Ken Dorsey was an analytics darling as a playcaller, but in the "real world" of football, the offense often seemed broken and basic.

Joe Brady was NOT so much of an analytics darling, and analytics guys will insist that the Bills offense got "worse" under him, but in the "real world" of football, the offense suddenly seemed to work better, more often, and more consistently.

Absolutely bizarre. I can't explain it, but I CAN tell you what my eyes saw very clearly: the offense seemed to clearly work better and be more productive and consistent under Joe Brady.

 

Yeah we watched the Offense grind to a halt with Dorsey, it was getting ridiculously aggravating we got to the point where we were begging them to just go 2-minute no huddle just let Josh do it because that was the only thing that ever worked.

 

Brady took over and things started to move again.

[Spiderweb]

The only area that gives serious concern about was the reduced passing game, which with improved running game should have also been more effective.

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Yeah we watched the Offense grind to a halt with Dorsey, it was getting ridiculously aggravating we got to the point where we were begging them to just go 2-minute no huddle just let Josh do it because that was the only thing that ever worked.

 

Brady took over and things started to move again.

Honestly it was a lesson to me going forward that I should take analytics with a big grain of salt.

The analytics all said our offense was top three to top five under Dorsey, but reality showed that it was broken and stale.

The analytics all said our offense got worse under Brady, but reality showed that it started moving and working again, and the Bills started scoring more points and winning football games.

Big grain of salt.

Edited January 29 by Logic

[TheyCallMeAndy]

22 minutes ago, Peter said:

I will leave this here for your enjoyment:

 

He conveniently left out the 2 playoff games. 

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Honestly it was a lesson to me going forward that I should take analytics with a big grain of salt.

The analytics all said our offense was top three to top five under Dorsey, but reality showed that it was broken and stale.

The analytics all said our offense got worse under Brady, but reality showed that it started moving and working again, and the Bills started scoring more points and winning football games.

Big grain of salt.

For sure. Honestly I think for a new guy to take over the offense and NOT have there be a big dip is pretty good. 

[PayDaBill$]

Give this guy a chance to come up with his own wrinkles, he was pretty much hamstrung with the existing playbook. I assume he’ll now have time to devise a more plays to scheme receivers open.

1 hour ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Josh Allen

Dorsey: 9 Games

350 attempts - 2660 yards - 19 TDs - 11 INT - 7 rushing TD

 

Brady: 9 Games

298 attempts - 2095 yards - 14 TDs - 7 INT - 8 rushing TD

 

James Cook

Dorsey: 9 games 

120 carries - 615 yards - 5.1 YPC

 

Brady: 9 Games

153 carries - 647 yards - 4.2 YPC 

 

Not much you can take away, also doesn’t account for weather, team, and the challenges of it not being an offense designed by Brady. 

Biggest stat missing and my big take away was 7 W’s & 2L’s vs better comp.

[MR8]

44 minutes ago, Logic said:

I just don't think the evidence on the field over the last several weeks of the regular season and the two games in the postseason match the notion that McDermott is "conservative" or wants the Bills to play a safe, no-risk offense.

Once upon a time, I may have agreed with that statement. But McDermott's coaching has evolved tremendously, and his aggressiveness along with it. Everything that goes with the idea of being an aggressive (rather than conservative) coach, McDermott has been doing from midseason on. He's constantly near the top of the "goes for it on 4th down when he should" charts. He's been going for it on 4th down on his own side of the field, even early in games, quite often. He has overseen an offense that for four straight years now is near the top of the league in passing frequency. He himself said in his season ending press conference that he believes you pass to win in this league. 

Yes, at times he's mentioned wanting to run the ball more effectively and to stop turning the ball over. I don't think either of those qualify as "conservative" thinking, though. I think 32 out of 32 NFL head coaches want their team to run the ball effectively and to take care of the football. And as I said, there's a time I would have agreed with the "McDermott is a conservative coach" idea, but that time has passed. All the evidence on the field in recent weeks simply does not back it up any longer. He's become pretty damned aggressive in his approach. And mind you, I'm no McDermott apologist. After the Broncos game, I wanted him fired. I'm STILL not convinced he's the right man for the job long term. But fair is fair, and to continue to call McDermott a conservative coach who wants to play it safe no longer feels fair or, for that matter, accurate.

 

I guess we're just on opposite sides of this situation because clearly we see the evidence showing different things.  I think the massive changes from the 2020/2021 seasons to the 2022/2023 seasons were more than just a different play caller.  It's a schematic change away from what Josh and the offensive personnel do best. 

 

Sure production is there, but you have Josh F'in Allen lol bro is SUPERMAN, you better produce lol.  He covers TONS of ills with his legs, his arm, being impossible to sack etc... when people throw out how we win and he puts up video game numbers as an endorsement of coaching, I'll throw back that Allen is an alien the likes of which we've never seen.... He was on the Ascent with Daboll, imagine how good he'd be if they crafted the offense better to him. 

 

Short outs, screens, and short routes were a staple of this offense... That's a massive change from Daboll.  McDermott said in 2022 he wanted the offense to take fewer risks... Well the OC works for him, and the seasons entire script was short low risk passing. 

 

Why does Josh always look better in the 4th quarter when the chips are down and he needs a play?  Because they let Josh be Josh ... He runs, he throws all over the field to more vertical routes, he superman's some hoes!  He goes full on Josh.   But for 3 quarters leading up to that, game in and game out for 2 years, it looks so difficult.  

 

Why has Diggs' average depth of target in dropped to below 10 yards in 10 of his past 19 games and it's over 2 yards shorter than his career avg in Buffalo?  Dumb ass bubble screens and stuff HE'S NOT DESIGNED TO DO. Dude is one of the best route runners creating separation down field and we delegated him to gadget guy. Against KC he only had 2 targets over 7 yards.... One was the deep ball and one was 15 yards down field, the other 6 were: -7, -1, 1, 4, 5, 5.... Bro, come on... Tell me this isn't conservative hold the ball use short passes like runs, and control the clock football.  That's NOT Josh Allen, it's playing conservative and frankly scared.

 

It's how the Bills play now since Daboll left.  Dorsey did it, Brady did it ... It's a schematic plan and it comes from the HC and how HE wants the game to go.  Few challenges down field, just enough to keep them honest, short high percentage passes hoping for YAC.  

 

It's what you do when you have Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB and no WRs... Not Josh Allen, Diggs, Cook, Kincaid.... 

 

But we can agree to disagree here man.  I just see a dramatic shift in offensive philosophy with how they constructed game plans, route trees, and eliminated the air raid scheme they would employ at will under Daboll. Everything looked difficult for the offense, because they're not playing to their strengths... So what are they playing to?

 

JMO I guess, but McDermott's desire to play mistake free football with field position, and let his D dominate.  Which 20 years ago with Kyle Orton sure.... But it's 2023 and you have QB1 JA17.... This scheme is a joke, not because these coaches don't know what they're doing, it because it's what the HC wants.

[HappyDays]

12 minutes ago, Logic said:

Honestly it was a lesson to me going forward that I should take analytics with a big grain of salt.

The analytics all said our offense was top three to top five under Dorsey, but reality showed that it was broken and stale.

The analytics all said our offense got worse under Brady, but reality showed that it started moving and working again, and the Bills started scoring more points and winning football games.

Big grain of salt.

 

We started winning games because our defense played much better after Brady took over. I agree the offense on the whole LOOKED better, but it wasn't really performing better than what it had under Dorsey especially after the initial bump we got from a new OC.

 

I attribute the drop in efficiency to Diggs falling off a cliff right around the time Brady took over. Dorsey got to call an offense that featured a true #1 WR. Brady did not. That factor alone would more than wipe out any potential improvement we got switching from Dorsey to Brady.

[MR8]

57 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Yeah people keep saying McDermott wants to run all the time because he was always talking about needing to run better, because we needed to be able to run better for such a long time.

It's not that McDermott wants to just run, it's about the conservative nature of the passing game too. It's designed for short open passes to act as a running game with high percentage throws but little to no upside unless the WR makes 5 guys miss... Just go look at average depth or routes and targets dropping like stones. Diggs in the KC game is the prime example...

[Warcodered]

6 minutes ago, MR8 said:

It's not that McDermott wants to just run, it's about the conservative nature of the passing game too. It's designed for short open passes to act as a running game with high percentage throws but little to no upside unless the WR makes 5 guys miss... Just go look at average depth or routes and targets dropping like stones. Diggs in the KC game is the prime example...

Bills have traditional lived in the intermediate game, oddly enough under this same coach, defenses have weirdly enough decided defend that area and we don't have the WR2 to force the issue.

[Logic]

14 minutes ago, MR8 said:

It's not that McDermott wants to just run, it's about the conservative nature of the passing game too. It's designed for short open passes to act as a running game with high percentage throws but little to no upside unless the WR makes 5 guys miss... Just go look at average depth or routes and targets dropping like stones. Diggs in the KC game is the prime example...

The only thing I'll say, and this is in response to your previous message to me as well, is:

The Bills had an explosive downfield passing offense in 2020 and for chunks of 2021. It was only when opposing defenses started playing a lot of two-high coverage specifically designed to take away that type of offense (which is the dominant defensive trend in the NFL the past few seasons) that the Bills started having to learn to live underneath. 

It's not just the Bills, either. The Chiefs have been forced by the way opposing defenses are playing to live off the run game and short passing game, too. It's really the only way to continue to move the ball on such a defense. It's all about forcing the offense to slowly and methodically matriculate the ball down the field (Hank Stram shoutout), betting that they'll make a mistake along the way. The Bills have HAD to switch to this type of offense to stay alive. I don't think it was a conscious choice made out of conservatism.

Furthermore, McDermott JUST said a few days ago in his end of season presser that the Bills need to generate more explosive plays, and that it would be a big factor in shaping their offseason from a player acquisition and scheming standpoint. 

In short, they WERE an explosive downfield passing offense, they HAD to switch to a shorter YAC offense largely due to how opposing defenses defend them the past couple years, it's affecting other teams, too, and lastly, the Bills are aware of it and the head coach specifically gave voice to addressing the lack of explosivity.

Edited January 29 by Logic

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 1/28/2024 at 2:27 PM, KDIGGZ said:

 

 

I’m a huge fan of this. We finally have a running game to be feared. Add a blue chip WR and the sky’s the limit for this offense. Joe Brady deserves this promotion. He brought this offense back from the dead and gave Buffalo their first 1000+ rusher in over a decade. The offensive line unit now has a full year playing together under their belt and things can only go up w/ Torrence entering his 2nd year. It’s a long way to go, but I am very hopeful for next season. 

[Bill Grundy]

Logic got logic

[papazoid]

well deserved

 

now get him a legit WR2

[2003Contenders]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

The move from Dorsey to Brady has to be one of the weirdest things I've ever witnessed in football. Specifically:

All of the analytics favored Dorsey, but if you watched his offense in real time, you saw a lack of logical sequencing, layering, and a general lack of feel for the game. You saw an offense that got stuck in neutral too often, did illogical things, became stale for long stretches, and ultimately failed to score enough points on a consistent basis.

Meanwhile, all of the analytics took a dip once Brady came aboard. Pretty much any notable measure of success from an analytics standpoint was WORSE under Brady than Dorsey. And yet, if you watched the offense under Brady as compared to Dorsey, you suddenly saw a plan, a logic, the aforementioned sequencing and layering, better organization, streamlining of the playbook, greater offensive consistency, and ultimately, more points being scored on a more consistent basis. 

Ken Dorsey was an analytics darling as a playcaller, but in the "real world" of football, the offense often seemed broken and basic.

Joe Brady was NOT so much of an analytics darling, and analytics guys will insist that the Bills offense got "worse" under him, but in the "real world" of football, the offense suddenly seemed to work better, more often, and more consistently.

Absolutely bizarre. I can't explain it, but I CAN tell you what my eyes saw very clearly: the offense seemed to clearly work better and be more productive and consistent under Joe Brady.

 

This.

 

I would add also something else that would not show up directly in the analytics. And that is the demeanor of the play-caller and the influence he had on the players.

 

From the first game we saw with Brady (against the Jets) the "Low Positive" Josh was gone and the loose Josh was back. Cook commented on this as well -- praising Brady for not losing faith in him and putting him back in the Philly game after the costly drop. (Two weeks before, against the Broncos, Dorsey had benched him for a significant portion of the game after the fumble on the opening drive).

[Low Positive]

24 minutes ago, Logic said:

The only thing I'll say, and this is in response to your previous message to me as well, is:

The Bills had an explosive downfield passing offense in 2020 and for chunks of 2021. It was only when opposing defenses started playing a lot of two-high coverage specifically designed to take away that type of offense (which is the dominant defensive trend in the NFL the past few seasons) that the Bills started having to learn to live underneath. 

It's not just the Bills, either. The Chiefs have been forced by the way opposing defenses are playing to live off the run game and short passing game, too. It's really the only way to continue to move the ball on such a defense. It's all about forcing the offense to slowly and methodically matriculate the ball down the field (Hank Stram shoutout), betting that they'll make a mistake along the way. The Bills have HAD to switch to this type of offense to stay alive. I don't think it was a conscious choice made out of conservatism.

Furthermore, McDermott JUST said a few days ago in his end of season presser that the Bills need to generate more explosive plays, and that it would be a big factor in shaping their offseason from a player acquisition and scheming standpoint. 

In short, they WERE an explosive downfield passing offense, they HAD to switch to a shorter YAC offense largely due to how opposing defenses defend them the past couple years, it's affecting other teams, too, and lastly, the Bills are aware of it and the head coach specifically gave voice to addressing the lack of explosivity.

You're right about the new NFL. No one would probably argue that Patrick Mahomes is on the cusp of his third ring and SB MVP. But, did you know, that he has been just checking down all year? Wait, that's not possible. He's the new GOAT. But here are the numbers.

• 6th in yards at 4,183
• 1st in YAC at 2,552
• 17th in completed air yards at 1,631 (almost a thousand more YAC than air yards!)
• 14th in Intended air yards at 3,786
• 31st in Air Yards per completion at 4.1
• 30th in Intended air yards per pass attempt at 6.5

He didn't throw it deep. He didn't complete deep passes. He just checked it down and let his guys get YAC. He had almost 400 more YAC than Tua, who played one more game and was throwing to a track team. 

[BADOLBILZ]

33 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

We started winning games because our defense played much better after Brady took over. I agree the offense on the whole LOOKED better, but it wasn't really performing better than what it had under Dorsey especially after the initial bump we got from a new OC.

 

I attribute the drop in efficiency to Diggs falling off a cliff right around the time Brady took over. Dorsey got to call an offense that featured a true #1 WR. Brady did not. That factor alone would more than wipe out any potential improvement we got switching from Dorsey to Brady.

 

 

Yeah and in the 9 games under Brady Josh Allen rushed 9.2 times on average.    He never ran the ball as many as 9 times in any of Dorsey's 2023 games and the rush count was 4.8 per game.   Those extra risks kept chains moving and put points on the board that the offense under Dorsey's restrictions wouldn't have been able to.   

 

I was in favor of the switch and the timing because Dorsey was replaceable and they needed a morale boost AND because I was certain that the desperation mode they were entering would make Brady look good to a fanbase that largely misunderstood what ailed the Bills offense in the first 10 games.   Of course none of us knew Diggs would play like sh!t from that point out so real statistical improvement never materialized but the defensive improvements and winning made it seem better.  

 

But if they don't get Brady some WR help he is going to turn into a pumpkin next October just like Dorsey.   The offense was never fixed.   Allen carried a disjointed passing game a long way.     

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, PayDaBill$ said:

Give this guy a chance to come up with his own wrinkles, he was pretty much hamstrung with the existing playbook. I assume he’ll now have time to devise a more plays to scheme receivers open.

Biggest stat missing and my big take away was 7 W’s & 2L’s vs better comp.

And the fact Brady was the OC for the toughest part of the schedule.