2024 WR Draft Class

[GASabresIUFan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I wouldn't describe Nacua as explosive. He is good, and he is tough to bring down after the catch, he had over 600 yards of YAC but I wouldn't call him explosive. The Bills need guys who can separate quickly. I'm not saying the 40 time is the be all and end all by the way, it's definitely not. But the need in this offense is explosiveness. 

Im not sure what your definition of ‘explosiveness” is but Nacua was 5th in YAC last season.  His 6.0 yards of YAC/r was the highest of the top receivers besides Samuel and Rashee Rice.  He even had a higher average than Hill. Nacua also had 41 plays of 20 or more yards.  Lamb had 41.  YAC master Samuel had only 30.  Hill was the best at 54 and no one else was even close

 

By the way the Bills’ Shakir averaged 7.2 yards YAC/r.  Diggs who averaged only  3.7 yards YAC/r, in 2023, 3.9 in 2022 and 3.1 in 2021.  Kincaid was only 4.3 yards.  Also if you look at big plays (catches of 20 or more yards), Diggs fell from 35 in 2022 to 19 in 2023.  However this number really varies.  In the last 4 years Diggs has gone 32, 24, 35 and 19.  
 

These stats make it clear that raw speed is not perfectly correlated to “explosiveness”.   It’s certainly a factor, but scheme, defensive setup, and complimentary WRs have a role as well.  If the Bills want to be more explosive on offense they need to get Shakir more involved and add a 3rd WR who the defenses must respect and scheme for.  Honestly, any of the top 10 receivers in this draft will probably accomplish that goal.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php

Edited February 5 by GASabresIUFan

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

He is electric for sure.  His height is fine, but man is he skinny.  I worry that he could have a lot of trouble against physical CBs in the NFL.  Interested in what he weighs and what his strength is like at the Combine.  

It’s a definite worry for sure. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think explosiveness is absolutely the #1 trait the Bills need. Way, way, way more important than size. Sure, hands is #2. But they need a guy who is explosive.

That screams Worthy to me. And Thomas/Franklin. 

[Magox]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think explosiveness is absolutely the #1 trait the Bills need. Way, way, way more important than size. Sure, hands is #2. But they need a guy who is explosive.

I’ve been thinking this quite a bit lately:

 

What happens if there is a prospect available who is a great route runner, who is pretty twitchy, decent speed that can separate that is rated higher than the top explosive down the field prospect?

 

I think you go with the higher rated prospect than the ideal explosive player.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Is there a good resource to find what % of snaps a WR took on outside vs slot?  Im specifically looking at McConkey, but would love to have a place to find this more easily in general.... fwiw mck sounds like a slot guy, but just curious

I put together a spreadsheet that lists this as well as many other things:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit

[NeverOutNick]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

I’ve been thinking this quite a bit lately:

 

What happens if there is a prospect available who is a great route runner, who is pretty twitchy, decent speed that can separate that is rated higher than the top explosive down the field prospect?

 

I think you go with the higher rated prospect than the ideal explosive player.

If you can create space that’s all I care about. We have too many receivers who don’t create any space and then we have to rely on Josh to fit it in tight windows. Yes to get a guy who is explosive right off the jump, like Brian Thomas Junior and Troy Franklin and even Worthy would be nice, but it’s not essential if you can just get some space for Josh to work with early in the route. We don’t need an Evans or Higgins because that’s just Gabe Davis with slightly better hands in our offense. We need Joe Brady to watch a lot of Matt Lafeur‘s tape and it would be even better if we had our own Tyreek Hill (one can dream)…but even though hill isn’t walking into our locker room there are a lot of guys in this draft that can be difference makers for Josh 

[Magox]

1 minute ago, NeverOutNick said:

If you can create space that’s all I care about. We have too many receivers who don’t create any space and then we have to rely on Josh to fit it in tight windows. Yes to get a guy who is explosive right off the jump, like Brian Thomas Junior and Troy Franklin and even Worthy would be nice, but it’s not essential if you can just get some space for Josh to work with early in the route. We don’t need an Evans or Higgins because that’s just Gabe Davis with slightly better hands in our offense. We need Joe Brady to watch a lot of Matt Lafeur‘s tape and it would be even better if we had our own Tyreek Hill (one can dream)…but even though hill isn’t walking into our locker room there are a lot of guys in this draft that can be difference makers for Josh 

 

Of course I’m not nearly as privy as the scouts to who can do what, but based off what I’ve seen, I don’t know if I’m sold on Legette.  His size and speed is incredibly attractive, but his route running is meh, he has struggled to separate in the senior bowl and has a very short track record of good production.

 

At this stage you would be largely drafting him on potential.   And aside from Franklin who may not be there when we draft, I don’t see any other explosive possibilities worth the 28 pick aside from Worthy.

 

However I am beginning to really like McConkey, dude played for a top team, has several years of good production and is a tremendous route running technician who is really twitchy who can separate.   I just get the feeling he is going to end up being a #1.   He reminds me a little bit of Diggs.

 

I just don’t want to miss and I think McConkey has one of the highest floors in the draft at the WR position.

[JaCrispy]

50 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

He is electric for sure.  His height is fine, but man is he skinny.  I worry that he could have a lot of trouble against physical CBs in the NFL.  Interested in what he weighs and what his strength is like at the Combine.  

He reminds me of the WR Smith in Philly…similar build, similar style of play…👍

24 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

That screams Worthy to me. And Thomas/Franklin. 

Yup- if we’re not getting Harrison or Nabers, those 3 appear to be what we are looking for the most…👍

[BillsShredder83]

22 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I put together a spreadsheet that lists this as well as many other things:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit

this rules so hard, TY! surprised to see mckonkey @ 75% wide!  is it common in college for guys to play outside, then get bumped inside in NFL?

 

this sheet is seriously impressive!!!

Edited February 5 by BillsShredder83

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

When you say explosive, are you talking about instant acceleration and lateral quickness?  

 

More acceleration probably but I wouldn't say no to some elite lateral quickness too.

53 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Im not sure what your definition of ‘explosiveness” is but Nacua was 5th in YAC last season.  His 6.0 yards of YAC/r was the highest of the top receivers besides Samuel and Rashee Rice.  He even had a higher average than Hill. Nacua also had 41 plays of 20 or more yards.  Lamb had 41.  YAC master Samuel had only 30.  Hill was the best at 54 and no one else was even close

 

By the way the Bills’ Shakir averaged 7.2 yards YAC/r.  Diggs who averaged only  3.7 yards YAC/r, in 2023, 3.9 in 2022 and 3.1 in 2021.  Kincaid was only 4.3 yards.  Also if you look at big plays (catches of 20 or more yards), Diggs fell from 35 in 2022 to 19 in 2023.  However this number really varies.  In the last 4 years Diggs has gone 32, 24, 35 and 19.  
 

These stats make it clear that raw speed is not perfectly correlated to “explosiveness”.   It’s certainly a factor, but scheme, defensive setup, and complimentary WRs have a role as well.  If the Bills want to be more explosive on offense they need to get Shakir more involved and add a 3rd WR who the defenses must respect and scheme for.  Honestly, any of the top 10 receivers in this draft will probably accomplish that goal.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-wr.php

 

Nacua is a great RAC receiver. No doubt. That isn't what I mean by explosiveness. I mean someone who can win quickly in routes with explosive acceleration. 

38 minutes ago, Magox said:

I’ve been thinking this quite a bit lately:

 

What happens if there is a prospect available who is a great route runner, who is pretty twitchy, decent speed that can separate that is rated higher than the top explosive down the field prospect?

 

I think you go with the higher rated prospect than the ideal explosive player.

 

Yes I agree. You do. You never pass on a superior talent because of need. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

I’ve been thinking this quite a bit lately:

 

What happens if there is a prospect available who is a great route runner, who is pretty twitchy, decent speed that can separate that is rated higher than the top explosive down the field prospect?

 

I think you go with the higher rated prospect than the ideal explosive player.

Never take a Jalen Reagor over a Justin Jefferson.

[SWATeam]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Never take a Jalen Reagor over a Justin Jefferson.

No way we should take Desean Jackson because we already have a smurf in Roscoe Parrish.  We need to take the giant James Hardy!

[NeverOutNick]

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Never take a Jalen Reagor over a Justin Jefferson.

Perfect example! Reagor was pretty “explosive” at TCU and Justin Jefferson wasn’t the same explosive separator that Chase was for LSU but he still knew how to create enough separation with his route running that he was consistently open. 

[GASabresIUFan]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

I think all this height stuff is 💩.  We need guys that can get off press in order to play outside, get separation and catch.  We have a bigger target in Kincaid. 
 

how many WR1 or great WR2 are 6’3 and over? Mike evans, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, Nico Collins, George Pickens-  then there’s London, Sutton, neither I’d say are great, but I’ll give you them.  7 WR 6’3 and over that fit what you’re looking for. Maybe a couple others that haven’t yet proven one way or another.  Meanwhile the chiefs and niners who are playing for the Lombardi don’t have any good WRs 6’3 and up.  

sure, it would be nice to have a guys 6’4+ but they’re rare…..we need guys that can beat press, separate and catch.  6 foot+ is just fine for our needs.  
 

I agree, that I’d prefer that we don’t draft any more short armed guys, 5’11 and under.  

 

Do you mean besides 6’5 Kelce and 6’4” Valdes-Scanting who made two huge catches in the playoff games to help secure the wins?  Or what about SF with 6’4 Kittle or their no.3 WR Jennings who is 6’3.  Remember the goal is complimentary football.  Both of these offenses spread the ball around.  In SF they had 4 players with 60+ catches.  In KC they had 6 players with 27 or more catches but they are more top heavy than SF with Rice and Kelce.  
 

By the way, I think GB has the best group of young receivers in the NFL.  In the last two years, they drafted 4 guys, Watson 6-4 208, Doubs 6-2 204, Wicks 6-1 206, and Reed 5-11 188.  They also added two TEs who are 6’6 and 6’5.  Those 4 WRs accounted for 2500 yards and 25 TDs.  The TEs chipped in another 700 yards.
 

The Bills did a fairly good job of spreading the ball around with 5 players with 39 or more catches, but this is a little misleading.  Shakir’s volume increased dramatically when Brady took over and increased further when we lost Davis.  Furthermore, the offense became significantly less explosive when Davis stopped playing well and then got hurt. Davis was our big receiver, 6’2 225, and when he disappeared defenses stopped worrying about the non-Diggs side of the field.  The goal is to replace and upgrade Davis with an early pick and I think it’s pretty clear from Cee Dee Lambs’ and Puca Nacua’s stats, that having blazing speed isn’t a requirement for being an effective and explosive receiver in the NFL.  Also adding that Diggs and Shakir are listed at 6’0”, having some size besides Kincaid would be a good thing.

I firmly believe in the modern NFL having more good options the QB had to throw to make the offense more dynamic and consequently more explosive.  Right now the Bills have 4 of the 5 or 6 they need in Cook, Diggs, Kincaid, and Shakir, but only Kincaid and Shakir were catching reliably late in the year.  

Edited February 5 by GASabresIUFan

[biggerdaddynj]

Aside from separation, we’re still looking for a guy that Buddy Nix wanted back in 2013, “we want a guy who can go up and catch the ball, that he's open when he's covered."  Puts drafting into perspective.  

Edited February 5 by biggerdaddynj

[GASabresIUFan]

22 minutes ago, biggerdaddynj said:

Aside from separation, we’re still looking for a guy that Buddy Nix wanted back in 2013, “we want a guy who can go up and catch the ball, that he's open when he's covered."  Puts drafting into perspective.  

Correct.  We don't have a WR on the roster who fits that description. 

[2003Contenders]

26 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Correct.  We don't have a WR on the roster who fits that description. 

Wouldn't it be great if Shorts could somehow be that guy? I guess we can dream.

[GASabresIUFan]

23 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

Wouldn't it be great if Shorts could somehow be that guy? I guess we can dream.

When drafted that seemed like a possibility and may still be a possibility.  He dropped just one pass on 114 targets while at Florida and averaged nearly 20 yards a catch.  He was even a higher-rated recruit from high school over Chase, St Brown, and Waddle.  That's pretty good company.  He started at PSU, but couldn't beat out Washington's Dotson or the recently signed KJ Hamler and transferred to Florida.   https://www.buffalobills.com/news/top-five-things-to-know-about-new-buffalo-bills-wr-justin-shorter

 

A guy with that pedigree you would hope would have shown something last year, but a hamstring injury put him on IR for the season.  So he gets a reset in 2024.  I'm hoping we bring in two guys in the draft and let Shorter compete with them for a job.

 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Do you mean besides 6’5 Kelce and 6’4” Valdes-Scanting who made two huge catches in the playoff games to help secure the wins?  Or what about SF with 6’4 Kittle or their no.3 WR Jennings who is 6’3.  Remember the goal is complimentary football.  Both of these offenses spread the ball around.  In SF they had 4 players with 60+ catches.  In KC they had 6 players with 27 or more catches but they are more top heavy than SF with Rice and Kelce.  
 

By the way, I think GB has the best group of young receivers in the NFL.  In the last two years, they drafted 4 guys, Watson 6-4 208, Doubs 6-2 204, Wicks 6-1 206, and Reed 5-11 188.  They also added two TEs who are 6’6 and 6’5.  Those 4 WRs accounted for 2500 yards and 25 TDs.  The TEs chipped in another 700 yards.
 

The Bills did a fairly good job of spreading the ball around with 5 players with 39 or more catches, but this is a little misleading.  Shakir’s volume increased dramatically when Brady took over and increased further when we lost Davis.  Furthermore, the offense became significantly less explosive when Davis stopped playing well and then got hurt. Davis was our big receiver, 6’2 225, and when he disappeared defenses stopped worrying about the non-Diggs side of the field.  The goal is to replace and upgrade Davis with an early pick and I think it’s pretty clear from Cee Dee Lambs’ and Puca Nacua’s stats, that having blazing speed isn’t a requirement for being an effective and explosive receiver in the NFL.  Also adding that Diggs and Shakir are listed at 6’0”, having some size besides Kincaid would be a good thing.

I firmly believe in the modern NFL having more good options the QB had to throw to make the offense more dynamic and consequently more explosive.  Right now the Bills have 4 of the 5 or 6 they need in Cook, Diggs, Kincaid, and Shakir, but only Kincaid and Shakir were catching reliably late in the year.  

Well if you want to include TEs, we have 2 6’4 plus tight ends…..  how many team have more than 2 solid 6’4 targets?  The chiefs have 2.  The niners have 1 (Jennings is ok….but we can get a guy like him in the later rounds).  Detroit has 2.  The ravens have 2.  The dolphins have none.  The rams had 1 (a decent higbee) when they won the Super Bowl.  
 

you need to make plays and execute.  Having 3+ good 6’’3 pass catchers definitely isn’t a thing.

 

sure, it would be a bonus to have another good one, but not at the expense of getting open and catching passes.  Guys that are 6’0-6’2 can get the job done just fine

[DCOrange]

Started watching All 22 focused on some WRs today. Decided to begin with Xavier Legette and Brian Thomas as they feel like two guys that would fill similar roles.

 

I have heard that Brian Thomas showed off some versatility in the final game of the season when Nabers was out but that is not a game I have film on. I watched two games of each of these guys on All 22, so about 40 minutes on each of them.
 

Thomas definitely looks like a one trick pony, but he is very very good at that one trick. He’s nowhere near the sheer weight that DK was in college, but he’s similarly excellent at beating press coverage and getting behind the defense very quickly. Definitely does not look like the type to get open over the middle of the field, but you put him outside and send him deep and he’ll either draw two defenders and help give our other receivers more space to work with or he’ll be single covered and be open more often than not. He’s simply difficult for DBs to get their hands on and if they don’t get their hands on him, he’s nearly impossible to keep up with. Flat out not good at any other routes right now though with the exception of maybe curls due to the pressure his speed puts on DBs. Also seemed to have okay awareness finding holes to squat down in against the zone. He could definitely be more physical as a blocker but he’ll at least get his hands on someone and will run down the field to help on long runs. 
 

Xavier Legette…I just don’t see it personally. He doesn’t beat press well and is kinda slow out of the gates. Better getting out of breaks than Thomas in my opinion but still not very good. Doesn’t have the game breaking acceleration to put a lot of vertical pressure on the defense. One positive is he’ll pretty much always pick up a couple yards after contact due to his brute strength. Not aware of where the zone coverage is. Disappointing blocker considering his size; he just doesn’t try very hard. Ultimately he seems like someone you’ll have to scheme open and then you can take advantage of the YAC skills but he’s someone I would gladly pass on personally. As some of The Athletic guys have said, if he’s still there in the 3rd or 4th round, that’s a different value proposition but I’d be very disappointed if he was our choice at 28.

Edited February 5 by DCOrange