Bills receivers are not getting open, but Allen finds them when they do

[GunnerBill]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

This is true of every elite QB in the NFL today.  I agree that Allen owns some of this but at the same time the Bills have not focused on surrounding him with high end play makers until just this off season and that was through the draft. 

 

Allen is the reason the Bills are playing for a division title tomorrow and the reason that they've won at least 10 games for the last 5 seasons, and are on the cusp of winning at least 11 games for 4 straight seasons and are about to make it 5 straight playoff seasons and 4 straight division titles.

 

IMO nitpicking what Allen could do a little better to get the Bills over the hump is the last place this team needs to look.  

 

 

 

 

Allen is the main reason the Bills are a Superbowl threat every single year. But down the stretch here it hasn't been Superman Josh and 21 guys. They have turned their season around through really strong team performances particularly on defense and they have ran the ball well. The passing game has been the bit that has been lagging behind. 

 

It isn't nitpicking. It is honest analysis of what the Bills have put on film.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Allen is the main reason the Bills are a Superbowl threat every single year. But down the stretch here it hasn't been Superman Josh and 21 guys. They have turned their season around through really strong team performances particularly on defense and they have ran the ball well. The passing game has been the bit that has been lagging behind. 

 

It isn't nitpicking. It is honest analysis of what the Bills have put on film.

I agree and I'm not saying you are doing the nitpicking.  But even a casual read of these threads can see that there are some Bills fans who nitpick Allen to death.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The Bengal's made a decision based on what was best for their offense.  They did this because they have an elite QB and they have worked tirelessly the last few seasons to surround him with the best possible talent on O.  The Bills made off season FA decisions based on what was best for their defense. At its core this is the fundamental difference between Buffalo and the other leading SB contenders this season.

 

 

 

 

 

I mean the Bengals have thrown more money at their oline than the Bills and this year got worse results up front. Where else does this investment you speak of show up? It isn't in their receivers - all 3 of those guys were draft picks. 

 

And on "the Bills need to draft receivers higher" no arguments. I have been draggin Brandon Beane for that for 3 years.

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean the Bengals have thrown more money at their oline than the Bills and this year got worse results up front. Where else does this investment you speak of show up? It isn't in their receivers - all 3 of those guys were draft picks. 

 

And on "the Bills need to draft receivers higher" no arguments. I have been draggin Brandon Beane for that for 3 years.

The fact is the Bengals are a franchise that focuses on the offense as a direct result of having an elite QB:

 

*  They have an offensive head coach

 

*  They used the 5th pick in the draft to take Chase.

 

*  They have invested heavily in their O line to mixed results (like we have on the D line) but there is no denying that the Bengals are better up front then they were in 2021.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

The fact is the Bengals are a franchise that focuses on the offense as a direct result of having an elite QB:

 

*  They have an offensive head coach

 

*  They used the 5th pick in the draft to take Chase.

 

*  They have invested heavily in their O line to mixed results (like we have on the D line) but there is no denying that the Bengals are better up front then they were in 2021.

 

 

 

They are. But only moderately. They are still a bottom 3rd of the league Oline.

 

Otherwise.... I wouldn't swap McDermott for Taylor. And sure, they drafted Chase 5th overall. They also drafted Higgins 33rd overall. Give them credit for those two picks. But their last six day 1 and 2 picks have been defense. I think your perception that they have prioritised offense massively more than Buffalo is slightly off.

[SWATeam]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are. But only moderately. They are still a bottom 3rd of the league Oline.

 

Otherwise.... I wouldn't swap McDermott for Taylor. And sure, they drafted Chase 5th overall. They also drafted Higgins 33rd overall. Give them credit for those two picks. But their last six day 1 and 2 picks have been defense. I think your perception that they have prioritised offense massively more than Buffalo is slightly off.

And, let's see what happens with these Bengals contracts moving forward.

[Since1981]

I’m not a scout. 
but it seems like the Pro Scout side has been successful getting vets on D. But aside from Diggs nearly 4 years ago, not much impact from pro scout dept on offense in past 4 yrs

Edited January 6 by Since1981

[Straight Hucklebuck]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Allen is the main reason the Bills are a Superbowl threat every single year. But down the stretch here it hasn't been Superman Josh and 21 guys. They have turned their season around through really strong team performances particularly on defense and they have ran the ball well. The passing game has been the bit that has been lagging behind. 

 

It isn't nitpicking. It is honest analysis of what the Bills have put on film.

Average Allen game under Brady (6 games now):

 

18.2 completions 

31.8 attempts

224.5 yards

57.1 completion %

7.3 yards/attempt

1.30 TDs per game

0.8 Interceptions/game

 

Rating = 84.4

QBR = 57.25

 

From a running standpoint:

8.0 rushing attempts/game

35.2 yards/game

4.2 yards/attempt

1.3 TDs/game

 

 

Edited January 6 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The Bengal's made a decision based on what was best for their offense.  They did this because they have an elite QB and they have worked tirelessly the last few seasons to surround him with the best possible talent on O.  The Bills made off season FA decisions based on what was best for their defense. At its core this is the fundamental difference between Buffalo and the other leading SB contenders this season.

 

The Bengals 1, 2, and 3rd round picks this year were all on defense.  Exact same thing last year.  When we look at the Bengal's Salary Cap, Burrow is the top hit of course, followed by Reader and Hendrickson on D; their top salary cap hits are about evenly split between O and D.  It's true that their biggest FA splash was at LT, but their other two "splashes" were at LB and Safety.

 

They didn't just let their two safeties walk, they let Hayden Hurst (TE) go and replaced him with a vet minimum UDFA type. 

 

Look, there are some specific arguments one can make about the Bills roster build - including that they under-invested on OL and at WR until this past season, while Cincy drafted a WR in round 2 the year they drafted Burrow and doubled down with another in Rd 1 next season. 

 

But the full picture of how the Bengals are handling their roster is far more nuanced than the picture you paint.  They are NOT just making decisions based on "what was best for their offense", or they would have picked up Higgins 5th year option instead of having him head for FA.  They had to make big splash investments in OT because their '21 2nd round pick busted.  And the Bengals needed to "work tirelessly" to shore up their OL, because it was so bad Burrow was leading the league in Sacks per Game his first 2 seasons, and is still way up there.

 

The Bengals, like other teams, are trying to build a team where they balance offense and defense.  It shows in how they're spending their cap.  It shows in making hard decisions like not to extend Higgins, to let Hurst walk after a year, and this year Boyd is headed for FA.  It shows in how they're using their 1st-3rd draft picks the last two seasons, despite knowing their Superstar WRs Chase and Higgins are going to need to be paid soon.

 

Frankly, the problem the Bills have had on O hasn't so much been under-investment, as that their investments on O haven't worked out here - Zay Jones, Cody Ford, Zack Moss, even Spencer Brown.  And it's not that these guys totally can't play, since Jones looked like a real #2 for Jax last season and helped them to playoffs last year and this.  Cody Ford is playing OG for that "makes decisions based on what is best for their offense and surround their QB with the Best Possible Talent on O" team you extol.  And Zack Moss is tearing it up for the Colts, who are currently leading the AFC South.  Spencer Brown is looking like a good RB OT, still shaky in pass pro.

TL;DR Come On Man.  The picture is way more nuanced than you write.  The Bengals have made decisions on contracts and draft picks that balance offense and defense, just like we have.  You can make an argument that the Bills have under-invested in receiver and OL until recently, but a detailed look just doesn't support your contentions about the Bengals making decisions based on what was best for their offense or "working tirelessly to surround him with the best possible talent on O".

Edit to correct that as 2nd round pick Higgens has no 5th round option thanks to @Straight Hucklebuck for pointing that out.  And to LOL at ScottLaw X'ing disagreement on a post that is largely factual. Which part you disagree with bro?  The fact that the Bengals used Rd 1-3 on D last 2 years?  That their top cap hits are evenly split between O and D?  That they let Hurst walk and replaced him with a vet min guy?  Or maybe you think Zay Jones and Cody Ford actually did work out here?    😅 

Edited January 6 by Beck Water

[warrior9]

23 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

The fact that different QBs on the same team with the same WRs see different separation makes the whole thing a bit dubious 

Lol .. how so? Receivers play the same game against the same people and run the exact same way for every opponent? 

 

So if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Everett are hurt, you expect the backs ups to get the same separation for Easton Stick? Injuries happen, different defenses, route combo's etc. It's not dubious in the slightest. There is a lot of variance in every game in the NFL. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are. But only moderately. They are still a bottom 3rd of the league Oline.

 

Otherwise.... I wouldn't swap McDermott for Taylor. And sure, they drafted Chase 5th overall. They also drafted Higgins 33rd overall. Give them credit for those two picks. But their last six day 1 and 2 picks have been defense. I think your perception that they have prioritised offense massively more than Buffalo is slightly off.

 

Nice Brit-style understatement.

As I pointed out elsewhere, part of the problem with the Bills investment on offense hasn't been that they didn't make one, it's that it hasn't worked out - or it aged out and wasn't adequately replaced. 

-The Bills drafted Zay Jones in the 2nd the year before they drafted Allen.  The Bengals drafted Tee Higgings in the 2nd the year they drafted Burrow. 

-The Bills signed Beasley and Brown Allen's 2nd year - Beasley was a fantastic add in the slot for 3 years.  The Bengals already had Tyler Boyd on the roster. 

-The Bills used a 1st round pick to trade for Diggs after Allen's 2nd year. The Bengals drafted Chase in Burrow's 2nd year. 

 

It's not that the Bills haven't made any investment on O, it's that some of the investments they made either didn't work out here for whatever reason (Jones, Moss, Ford) OR aged out and weren't adequately replaced.

 

The Bengals havent' extended Higgins so he'll be a FA. Boyd is 29 and will be a FA. They need to make a decision on Chase's 5th year this off-season.  It remains to be seen how the Bengals will handle this aging out/FA loss replacement.

 

edit: was pointed out Higgens has no 5th year option as a 2nd round pick, Thanks @Straight Hucklebuck

Edited January 6 by Beck Water

[Straight Hucklebuck]

31 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

The Bengals 1, 2, and 3rd round picks this year were all on defense.  Exact same thing last year.  When we look at the Bengal's Salary Cap, Burrow is the top hit of course, followed by Reader and Hendrickson on D; their top salary cap hits are about evenly split between O and D.  It's true that their biggest FA splash was at LT, but their other two "splashes" were at LB and Safety.

 

They didn't just let their two safeties walk, they let Hayden Hurst (TE) go and replaced him with a vet minimum UDFA type. 

 

Look, there are some specific arguments one can make about the Bills roster build - including that they under-invested on OL and at WR until this past season, while Cincy drafted a WR in round 2 the year they drafted Burrow and doubled down with another in Rd 1 next season. 

 

But the full picture of how the Bengals are handling their roster is far more nuanced than the picture you paint.  They are NOT just making decisions based on "what was best for their offense", or they would have picked up Higgins 5th year option instead of having him head for FA.  They had to make big splash investments in OT because their '21 2nd round pick busted.  And the Bengals needed to "work tirelessly" to shore up their OL, because it was so bad Burrow was leading the league in Sacks per Game his first 2 seasons, and is still way up there.

 

The Bengals, like other teams, are trying to build a team where they balance offense and defense.  It shows in how they're spending their cap.  It shows in making hard decisions like not to pick up Higgins 5th year option or let Hurst walk after a year, and this year Boyd is headed for FA.  It shows in how they're using their 1st-3rd draft picks the last two seasons, despite knowing their Superstar WRs Chase and Higgins are going to need to be paid soon.

 

Frankly, the problem the Bills have had on O hasn't so much been under-investment, as that their investments on O haven't worked out here - Zay Jones, Cody Ford, Zack Moss, even Spencer Brown.  And it's not that these guys totally can't play, since Jones looked like a real #2 for Jax last season and helped them to playoffs last year and this.  Cody Ford is playing OG for that "makes decisions based on what is best for their offense and surround their QB with the Best Possible Talent on O" team you extol.  And Zack Moss is tearing it up for the Colts, who are currently leading the AFC South.  Spencer Brown is looking like a good RB OT, still shaky in pass pro.

TL;DR Come On Man.  The picture is way more nuanced than you write.  The Bengals have made decisions on contracts and draft picks that balance offense and defense, just like we have.  You can make an argument that the Bills have under-invested in receiver and OL until recently, but a detailed look just doesn't support your contentions about the Bengals making decisions based on what was best for their offense or "working tirelessly to surround him with the best possible talent on O".

Higgins is a second round pick, there is no 5th year option. 
 

Bengals fans down here are not anticipating Mike Brown ponying up the market contract money, they think is will be Isovias taking that spot.

 

And to your point, they bypassed a chance to get a good Tight End in the draft and trade deadline. 

[Beck Water]

24 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Higgins is a second round pick, there is no 5th year option. 
 

Bengals fans down here are not anticipating Mike Brown ponying up the market contract money, they think is will be Isovias taking that spot.

 

And to your point, they bypassed a chance to get a good Tight End in the draft and trade deadline. 

 

I sit corrected. 

 

Point stands that two of the Bengals 3 star WR are gonna hit FA this year along with their OT Jonah Williams and key defender DJ Reader.  

 

We'll see how they handle that. 

 

43 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Lol .. how so? Receivers play the same game against the same people and run the exact same way for every opponent? 

 

So if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Everett are hurt, you expect the backs ups to get the same separation for Easton Stick? Injuries happen, different defenses, route combo's etc. It's not dubious in the slightest. There is a lot of variance in every game in the NFL. 

 

I think the point is, some of us look at that graph and it pops out that it can't be a graph of what one might think, the separation of all the receivers on the field a specific play.  I'm not sure exactly what that metric is, or how it's being calculated, but OP's interpretation "Bills WR are not getting open" probably isn't what it shows.

Edited January 6 by Beck Water

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I sit corrected. 

 

Point stands that two of the Bengals 3 star WR are gonna hit FA this year along with their OT Jonah Williams and key defender DJ Reader.  

 

We'll see how they handle that. 

Historically the Bengals don’t spend money in FA. 

Last year they sat on the wayside and watched: Perine, Hurst, Bates, Bell, Tre Flowers, Eli Apple walk off the team. 

 

Pratt came back on a team-friendly deal, and they locked up Logan Wilson in the middle of this season. 
 

It wasn’t until late in FA they brought Nick Scott in. 

So they’re looking at Reader, Williams, Boyd, Higgins, Awuzie. 

Last year they compensated for the FA losses in the secondary with the draft, they’re set in the secondary for 2024. 

I anticipate DT for them, and they’ll add to the offense.

 

Even when they drafted Chase at #5, the other option being discussed here was Sewell because Burrow’s knee was wrecked the season before. 

 

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is why I tell people - I can not watch the televised film and tell whether it's true that "no one is getting open" during a game.   I know some people here can - they know enough ball that they can make an educated guess as to what all the routes look like and what coverage it is, just based on the glimpses on network - but I suspect that most of those who opine 'no receivers are open' are typically more like me, because when I do watch All 22 I see open receivers.

 

And when a receiver is open - it takes careful observation to tell, was he open at the right time, when Josh needed to make a decision to throw?

 

Then there's the question of the design of the play, what order are the reads.

Then there are the posters that insist that all reads are high-low, left-right, etc. when in fact there is a primary read of the play design on paper, but the order of operations changes when you get to the line and see the coverage. Then that order of operations can in fact change again post snap once you read and react. 
 

We’ve seen a million former QB’s break down film on a million plays across the league and say “when the QB sees player x do y, the QB should know to immediately look at z”. 
 

I am no football/x’s and o’s guru but I’ve made a huge effort to watch all 22 for a few years and wrap my head around the intricacies of the NFL game. It’s certainly fascinating. The more I learn the more I realize none of us on this message board know. The least of which are the posters who parrot “our offensive reads are high-low”.

 

TL;DR Football is complicated. 

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Historically the Bengals don’t spend money in FA. 

Last year they sat on the wayside and watched: Perine, Hurst, Bates, Bell, Tre Flowers, Eli Apple walk off the team. 

 

Pratt came back on a team-friendly deal, and they locked up Logan Wilson in the middle of this season. 
 

It wasn’t until late in FA they brought Nick Scott in. 

So they’re looking at Reader, Williams, Boyd, Higgins, Awuzie. 

Last year they compensated for the FA losses in the secondary with the draft, they’re set in the secondary for 2024. 

I anticipate DT for them, and they’ll add to the offense.

 

Even when they drafted Chase at #5, the other option being discussed here was Sewell because Burrow’s knee was wrecked the season before. 

 

 

Bengals spent $64M, $31M guaranteed, on Orlando Brown Jr.  That's a pretty big spend.  $21M on Germaine Pratt?  Now I grant you their cap hits last year were pretty small potatoes, and I haven't looked at the contract details.  But seems like they do spend at times.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Bengals spent $64M, $31M guaranteed, on Orlando Brown Jr.  That's a pretty big spend.  $21M on Germaine Pratt?  Now I grant you their cap hits last year were pretty small potatoes, and I haven't looked at the contract details.  But seems like they do spend at times.

Hendrickson and Reader were FAs.

 

As was Bell. 
 

Yeah, they’re not know as big FA players.

 

 

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, Mango said:

Then there are the posters that insist that all reads are high-low, left-right, etc. when in fact there is a primary read of the play design on paper, but the order of operations changes when you get to the line and see the coverage. Then that order of operations can in fact change again post snap once you read and react. 
 

We’ve seen a million former QB’s break down film on a million plays across the league and say “when the QB sees player x do y, the QB should know to immediately look at z”. 
 

I am no football/x’s and o’s guru but I’ve made a huge effort to watch all 22 for a few years and wrap my head around the intricacies of the NFL game. It’s certainly fascinating. The more I learn the more I realize none of us on this message board know. The least of which are the posters who parrot “our offensive reads are high-low”.

 

TL;DR Football is complicated. 

 

There are about 4 guys on this board (2 of whom don't post much any more) who really have a deep understanding of the X's and O's of football, and interestingly both who are still posting at times have more of a defensive background (which means they very well understand where the QB ought to attack on a given coverage).  So it's not quite "none", but it's close.

 

But yeah, the fascination of football to me is the intricacy of the game, and the more I learn, the more I realize how little I know and how much there is to know.

[Mango]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

There are about 4 guys on this board (2 of whom don't post much any more) who really have a deep understanding of the X's and O's of football, and interestingly both who are still posting at times have more of a defensive background (which means they very well understand where the QB ought to attack on a given coverage).  So it's not quite "none", but it's close.

 

But yeah, the fascination of football to me is the intricacy of the game, and the more I learn, the more I realize how little I know and how much there is to know.

None was hyperbole. There are a couple here who understand the film at a fairly high level. But most of us (myself included) are basically schmoes.

[Tulsabillsfanz]

I think one problem with Allen’s passing this season is the over emphasis on trying to get the ball to Diggs. We need to just find the open receiver, regardless of who it is. I know Diggs is WR1, but he doesn’t always get open. I know he gets angry when he thinks he’s under utilized, but that’s just the way it is sometimes.  I completely agree we need to make our first pick next April a WR, if there’s a good one available. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

8 minutes ago, Tulsabillsfanz said:

I think one problem with Allen’s passing this season is the over emphasis on trying to get the ball to Diggs. We need to just find the open receiver, regardless of who it is. I know Diggs is WR1, but he doesn’t always get open. I know he gets angry when he thinks he’s under utilized, but that’s just the way it is sometimes.  I completely agree we need to make our first pick next April a WR, if there’s a good one available. 

I think the exact opposite.

 

Diggs (and Shakir) should be peppered with targets. 
 

Gabe is inefficient, I wish Harty would get 1-2 targets/game but he’s mothballed by this coaching staff, Sherfield is absolutely useless.

 

That’s your WR group. 
One Alpha, one dependable slot, a one-route WR who depends on broken coverages and two useless WRs who don’t get targeted. 
 

Passing offense is best in 011 because it gets Diggs, Gabe, Shakir, Kincaid and Cook on the field. 
 

The league leaders are 11.5 targets/game.
 

YTD Diggs is currently 9.5, he’s 8.5 under Brady, and 6.6 in the last 3 games. 
 

I think Allen should look for him more.

[Tulsabillsfanz]

13 minutes ago, Tulsabillsfanz said:

I think one problem with Allen’s passing this season is the over emphasis on trying to get the ball to Diggs. We need to just find the open receiver, regardless of who it is. I know Diggs is WR1, but he doesn’t always get open. I know he gets angry when he thinks he’s under utilized, but that’s just the way it is sometimes.  I completely agree we need to make our first pick next April a WR, if there’s a good one available. 

One stat to add to my post:  In Diggs first 3 seasons in Buffalo, around 50% of his targets ended up being first downs or touchdowns.  This season it’s around 40%.   BTW Davis this season is around 50% & Shakir is abnormally high at around 60%.  There are many factors that influence that stat, but overall I believe it shows a below average success ratio on targeting Diggs. I think we’re forcing the ball to him too much. 

[Mango]

6 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think the exact opposite.

 

Diggs (and Shakir) should be peppered with targets. 
 

Gabe is inefficient, I wish Harty would get 1-2 targets/game but he’s mothballed by this coaching staff, Sherfield is absolutely useless.

 

That’s your WR group. 
One Alpha, one dependable slot, a one-route WR who depends on broken coverages and two useless WRs who don’t get targeted. 
 

Passing offense is best in 011 because it gets Diggs, Gabe, Shakir, Kincaid and Cook on the field. 
 

The league leaders are 11.5 targets/game.
 

YTD Diggs is currently 9.5, he’s 8.5 under Brady, and 6.6 in the last 3 games. 
 

I think Allen should look for him more.

Let me start by saying every team in the league would love Miami or Cincinatti’s weapons. 
 

But once you pay your QB and that cap hit starts to come to life you can’t maintain that. 
 

That said, I believe that having Diggs, Kincaid, and Cook as your top 3 targets is a very good set up. The rest of the pass catching core should be role players. And honestly, Davis has had a few games now with almost no targets, and that’s a good spot for him. The issue is setting up Diggs, Kincaid, and Cook up for success. All three of those guys need to be featured on a regular and they’re not under either OC. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

Let me start by saying every team in the league would love Miami or Cincinatti’s weapons. 
 

But once you pay your QB and that cap hit starts to come to life you can’t maintain that. 
 

That said, I believe that having Diggs, Kincaid, and Cook as your top 3 targets is a very good set up. The rest of the pass catching core should be role players. And honestly, Davis has had a few games now with almost no targets, and that’s a good spot for him. The issue is setting up Diggs, Kincaid, and Cook up for success. All three of those guys need to be featured on a regular and they’re not under either OC. 

It’s what’s maddening about the Bills.

 

Kincaid 4-87 last week, and this week he could have 1-target.

 

Cook 5-83 one week, and 1 for -4 the next two weeks combined.

 

It’s an erratic pass game, with a black hole at #2 and Knox who just makes Kincaid less effective. 
 

Diggs got on his horse last week and tried to catch that deep ball from Allen. I don’t see any limp, knee bracing, or anything else that’s wrong with him. 

[Senth]

He misses a few wide open ..... needs to take what's given a bit more.

We need to attack the middle of the field all day.

[Beck Water]

28 minutes ago, Tulsabillsfanz said:

I think one problem with Allen’s passing this season is the over emphasis on trying to get the ball to Diggs. We need to just find the open receiver, regardless of who it is. I know Diggs is WR1, but he doesn’t always get open. I know he gets angry when he thinks he’s under utilized, but that’s just the way it is sometimes.  I completely agree we need to make our first pick next April a WR, if there’s a good one available. 

 

I'm not sure about "over emphasis on trying to get the ball to Diggs".  I'm saying that because I did a quick thumb-through of some other top teams, and it seems as though a *****-ton of targets to the top WR is a not uncommon pattern for top offenses.  Dallas, for example, targetted CeeDee Lamb 168 times; their 2nd target their TE with 98.  Detroit, Amon Ra St Brown 154 times, Sam Laporta second with 113.  Note that in both those offenses, the #2 target is a TE, in the Detroit case a rookie TE.  Eagles AJ Brown 157 to Davonta Smith with 112.  On the Lambs, Puka Nacua just took over 154 to Kupp 94.

 

Other teams of course are more equitable with a #1 and #2 receiver.  San Francisco, Miami, Packers, etc.

 

The point is it's a perfectly reasonable offensive strategy to target your best player and 152 targets for Diggs as the #1 is not necessarily out of line around the league.  Nor is it out of line to have the 2nd most targeted guy be the TE.  What's a bit unusual is how relatively few yards Diggs has for that number of targets (Kincaid too).

 

When I think of the Bills 2022 and 2023 offense, the word that comes to mind is "disjointed".  It just didn't flow.  It didn't work together right.  The various pieces (Diggs, Kincaid, Cook, Davis, even Harty) just didn't seem as though they were being used to their best advantage.

 

Ex-NFL QB who do film breakdown have dropped some breadcrumbs, of which my bottom line summation is, it's more than one cause.

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm not sure about "over emphasis on trying to get the ball to Diggs".  I'm saying that because I did a quick thumb-through of some other top teams, and it seems as though a *****-ton of targets to the top WR is a not uncommon pattern for top offenses.  Dallas, for example, targetted CeeDee Lamb 168 times; their 2nd target their TE with 98.  Detroit, Amon Ra St Brown 154 times, Sam Laporta second with 113.  Note that in both those offenses, the #2 target is a TE, in the Detroit case a rookie TE.  Eagles AJ Brown 157 to Davonta Smith with 112.  On the Lambs, Puka Nacua just took over 154 to Kupp 94.

 

Other teams of course are more equitable with a #1 and #2 receiver.  San Francisco, Miami, Packers, etc.

 

The point is it's a perfectly reasonable offensive strategy to target your best player and 152 targets for Diggs as the #1 is not necessarily out of line around the league.  Nor is it out of line to have the 2nd most targeted guy be the TE.  What's a bit unusual is how relatively few yards Diggs has for that number of targets (Kincaid too).

 

When I think of the Bills 2022 and 2023 offense, the word that comes to mind is "disjointed".  It just didn't flow.  It didn't work together right.  The various pieces (Diggs, Kincaid, Cook, Davis, even Harty) just didn't seem as though they were being used to their best advantage.

 

Ex-NFL QB who do film breakdown have dropped some breadcrumbs, of which my bottom line summation is, it's more than one cause.

 

 

I think of Chris Simms who’s been saying for 2 years there is nothing scary about the Bills offense.

 

Greg Cosell has called Diggs a “high level possession receiver” and all the rest have been broken down here.

 

Cook looked like he could be the #2 weapon on this offense after Dallas, but that has since disappeared again.

 

So Chris Simms is now saying the Bills should adopt the Chiefs reality and muddy the game up by running , and playing field position and defense. 
 

We can help ourselves by taking Knox off the field more, phasing out Murray completely, and not putting Sherfield on the field - for one game, but guys are going to need breathers.

 

 

[Beck Water]

33 minutes ago, Tulsabillsfanz said:

One stat to add to my post:  In Diggs first 3 seasons in Buffalo, around 50% of his targets ended up being first downs or touchdowns.  This season it’s around 40%.   BTW Davis this season is around 50% & Shakir is abnormally high at around 60%.  There are many factors that influence that stat, but overall I believe it shows a below average success ratio on targeting Diggs. I think we’re forcing the ball to him too much. 

 

You're actually doing something you're not supposed to do in statistics - you're grouping together 3 single year datasets, then comparing them to a smaller data set of one year.  One dataset has 484 points, one has 152.  No bueno without strong justification.  You need to look under the hood at the data to be sure that's OK to do, then you probably need to use some special statistical tools to ask "is this difference significant"?   Where's one of our stats mavens to set us straight with the technical reasons?  @oldmanfan I think?

 

For example, if you look year by year, 2020: 49% 2021: 46% 2022: 55%.  This season: 41%.   Binning together 3 years hides the variance year to year.  And is 41% that different from 46%?  Is 165

 

Now, that said, I think there are some points.  Diggs is being used somewhat differently this year, in ways he wasn't used the 3 previous years.  I don't recall Diggs being used on screens, or from the backfield, previously (as he has been this year).  I think he's been used more from the slot.  That folds into the fact that while his catch % is still good, his overall Y/R are down to 11 Y/R from 12 his first 2 years and 13 last year.

 

But it's a long stretch to say the problem is, we're "forcing the ball to him too much" when his targets are actually down from 2020/2021.

 

There actually is a stat, Success %, defined as a reception that gains 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd down.  Using that stat, we see that Diggs Success % is down this season (53%), but similar to 2021 (55%) when he was targeted even more.

Data from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DiggSt00.htm

 

I think its a good call that something is off with the offense, and off with Diggs, but I'm not sure "forcing the ball to him too much" is it.

 

 

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Allen is the main reason the Bills are a Superbowl threat every single year. But down the stretch here it hasn't been Superman Josh and 21 guys. They have turned their season around through really strong team performances particularly on defense and they have ran the ball well. The passing game has been the bit that has been lagging behind.

 

Word for word this could describe Mahomes and the Chiefs this year. But the narrative around the two QBs is for some reason entirely different. Mahomes and Allen are obviously not perfect this year, but they are the only reason their passing offenses are performing at a top 10 level over the course of the season. Them putting on their Superman cape from time to time is in fact the difference. Average OL play and a below average group of pass catchers is not conducive to elite passing offense, I don't care who your QB is. I'm surprised after the year Mahomes has had that this debate hasn't been closed once and for all.

 

I think if Allen had the exact game that Mahomes had against us in week 14, there would be a lot of people on here saying that we would have won that game if Allen had played better. They would have pointed to the handful of missed throws Mahomes had and said "if your defense holds a top offense to 20 points, your QB has to find a way to get the win." But Bills fans don't watch other QBs with the same critical eye that they watch Allen. Every missed pass or bad read is treated like the end of the world on here, rather than the regular occurrence that it is for every single QB in every single game. I still see people blame Allen for the Eagles loss which is straight up unbelievable. I see people say things like "if Allen doesn't play like he did against the Dolphins this year (with his 158.3 pass rating), the Bills can't beat good teams" - and they say this is as a criticism of Allen. I see people say that if Allen doesn't play perfect for four straight games we have no chance at a Super Bowl, even though that has never been the case for any other Super Bowl winning QB.

 

So the expectations for QB play have gotten obscenely out of control on here. Every time I watch any other great QB play a game I see plenty of missed passes or jitteriness in the pocket. It is in fact completely normal. Allen misses 4 passes instead of 2 in a game and all of a sudden he doesn't care about his mechanics anymore, he's gone Hollywood, etc. It can't just be the normal ups and downs of a QB's season. It has to be the end of the world.

 

Also Gunner to your point on Cincy - I think talking about total investments made is a bit of a red herring. What matters is what's on the field. Cincy prioritized defense in the draft after giving Burrow an elite WR tandem. The Bills on the contrary have prioritized defensive line above all else every single year that McDermott has been here. They missed several opportunities to acquire top WR talent in the draft over the years. They failed to do what was necessary to pay for Hopkins this past offseason. At the end of the day the weapons they've surrounded Allen with this year have not been good enough, arguably worse even than what we had last year because Diggs is not performing like the true #1 he was last year. That's why our passing offense is where it is right now.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

You're actually doing something you're not supposed to do in statistics - you're grouping together 3 single year datasets, then comparing them to a smaller data set of one year.  One dataset has 484 points, one has 152.  No bueno without strong justification.  You need to look under the hood at the data to be sure that's OK to do, then you probably need to use some special statistical tools to ask "is this difference significant"?   Where's one of our stats mavens to set us straight with the technical reasons?  @oldmanfan I think?

 

For example, if you look year by year, 2020: 49% 2021: 46% 2022: 55%.  This season: 41%.   Binning together 3 years hides the variance year to year.  And is 41% that different from 46%?  Is 165

 

Now, that said, I think there are some points.  Diggs is being used somewhat differently this year, in ways he wasn't used the 3 previous years.  I don't recall Diggs being used on screens, or from the backfield, previously (as he has been this year).  I think he's been used more from the slot.  That folds into the fact that while his catch % is still good, his overall Y/R are down to 11 Y/R from 12 his first 2 years and 13 last year.

 

But it's a long stretch to say the problem is, we're "forcing the ball to him too much" when his targets are actually down from 2020/2021.

 

There actually is a stat, Success %, defined as a reception that gains 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd down.  Using that stat, we see that Diggs Success % is down this season (53%), but similar to 2021 (55%) when he was targeted even more.

Data from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DiggSt00.htm

 

I think its a good call that something is off with the offense, and off with Diggs, but I'm not sure "forcing the ball to him too much" is it.

 

 

Re that measure, which I love, kincaid is at 61.4 percent and shakir is off the charts at 76.9. I have a feeling Shakir might a mainstay #3 for a long time. He can be a Beasley with time and experience. 

[CincyBillsFan]

6 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

The Bengals 1, 2, and 3rd round picks this year were all on defense.  Exact same thing last year.  When we look at the Bengal's Salary Cap, Burrow is the top hit of course, followed by Reader and Hendrickson on D; their top salary cap hits are about evenly split between O and D.  It's true that their biggest FA splash was at LT, but their other two "splashes" were at LB and Safety.

 

They didn't just let their two safeties walk, they let Hayden Hurst (TE) go and replaced him with a vet minimum UDFA type. 

 

Look, there are some specific arguments one can make about the Bills roster build - including that they under-invested on OL and at WR until this past season, while Cincy drafted a WR in round 2 the year they drafted Burrow and doubled down with another in Rd 1 next season. 

 

But the full picture of how the Bengals are handling their roster is far more nuanced than the picture you paint.  They are NOT just making decisions based on "what was best for their offense", or they would have picked up Higgins 5th year option instead of having him head for FA.  They had to make big splash investments in OT because their '21 2nd round pick busted.  And the Bengals needed to "work tirelessly" to shore up their OL, because it was so bad Burrow was leading the league in Sacks per Game his first 2 seasons, and is still way up there.

 

    😅 

The Bengals haven't been all that nuanced in building their roster since Taylor became coach in 2019.  He's an offensive guy and used his first two picks take offensive players in 2019, 2020 & 2021.  In 2019 they took an OT in round 1 (11th pick) & a TE in round 2.  In 2020 they took a QB in round 1 (1st pick of the draft) and a WR with the 1st pick in the 2nd round.  In 2021 they took a WR in the 1st round (5th pick) and an OT in the 2nd round.  So for his first 3 drafts Taylor took offense in the 1st two rounds (11, 1, 5). That is an enormous investment in draft capitol for the offense.

 

In 2022 & 2023, the Bengals invested heavily in FA to boost their O line with four major signings over the two years.

 

 

 

 

[par73]

If you watch Marino and his analysis of the All-22, you will see Allen is not finding open receivers, in many instances. He also has accuracy issues-- which we have seen. In addition, the receivers aren't helping, with all of the drops (among the league leaders in that category). So, it is a combination of factors-- which leads to a passing game that is out of sync.

[Beck Water]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Also Gunner to your point on Cincy - I think talking about total investments made is a bit of a red herring. What matters is what's on the field. Cincy prioritized defense in the draft after giving Burrow an elite WR tandem. The Bills on the contrary have prioritized defensive line above all else every single year that McDermott has been here. They missed several opportunities to acquire top WR talent in the draft over the years. They failed to do what was necessary to pay for Hopkins this past offseason. At the end of the day the weapons they've surrounded Allen with this year have not been good enough, arguably worse even than what we had last year because Diggs is not performing like the true #1 he was last year. That's why our passing offense is where it is right now.

 

You have some great points in your full post.  I can't disagree that the Bills have prioritized DL.

 

I don't think it's supportable to say "above all else in every single year Beane has been here".   I think the use of a 1st round pick to trade for Diggs, when it was clear we had a good 1-2 punch in Brown and Beasley already on the roster, argued a commitment to a quality WR corps.  I mean, if Beane prioritized DL above all else, why not skip the Diggs trade and try to chase after a DLman there?  Or go for a FA acquisition then and draft a WR, in what was a pretty rich draft?  Beane wanted to give Allen a sure bet at a seasoned and crafty vet WR, and he did.  I can't fault that.

And having the #2 offense, #3 passing offense that year and #3 offense, top-10 passing offense the following year makes it a bit revisionist to argue that what was on the field for the Bills in 2020 and 2021 showed that Beane hadn't done enough, offensively.  I think after 13 seconds it looked to most of us like it was the defense that faltered - and hasn't that been a theme for most of us, throughout this season until the script flipped the last handful of games?

 

A friend of ours works professionally with wild animals.  They like to say "it's always OK, until it isn't" - meaning unsafe things can be perceived as acceptable, "never had a problem", until one day they do. 

 

I think where Beane went awry was after 2021, in assuming that Davis, Crowder, McKenzie, and a 5th round draft pick were adequate to replace Saunders (who replaced Brown for a year) and Beasley.  They weren't, and they still aren't, although Shakir is looking as though he may have something now.
 

Kincaid may have been a good start, but he's got to do more.

 

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

7 hours ago, par73 said:

If you watch Marino and his analysis of the All-22, you will see Allen is not finding open receivers, in many instances. He also has accuracy issues-- which we have seen. In addition, the receivers aren't helping, with all of the drops (among the league leaders in that category). So, it is a combination of factors-- which leads to a passing game that is out of sync.

Well Joe isn’t really the biggest Allen fan to begin with the fact he is spreading around the blame is something new. Watching his evaluation of the final play of the eagles game was like watching something surreal out of like Seinfeld  where he’s going over how Allen screwed up over and over again. 

[LABILLBACKER]

11 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm not sure about "over emphasis on trying to get the ball to Diggs".  I'm saying that because I did a quick thumb-through of some other top teams, and it seems as though a *****-ton of targets to the top WR is a not uncommon pattern for top offenses.  Dallas, for example, targetted CeeDee Lamb 168 times; their 2nd target their TE with 98.  Detroit, Amon Ra St Brown 154 times, Sam Laporta second with 113.  Note that in both those offenses, the #2 target is a TE, in the Detroit case a rookie TE.  Eagles AJ Brown 157 to Davonta Smith with 112.  On the Lambs, Puka Nacua just took over 154 to Kupp 94.

 

Other teams of course are more equitable with a #1 and #2 receiver.  San Francisco, Miami, Packers, etc.

 

The point is it's a perfectly reasonable offensive strategy to target your best player and 152 targets for Diggs as the #1 is not necessarily out of line around the league.  Nor is it out of line to have the 2nd most targeted guy be the TE.  What's a bit unusual is how relatively few yards Diggs has for that number of targets (Kincaid too).

 

When I think of the Bills 2022 and 2023 offense, the word that comes to mind is "disjointed".  It just didn't flow.  It didn't work together right.  The various pieces (Diggs, Kincaid, Cook, Davis, even Harty) just didn't seem as though they were being used to their best advantage.

 

Ex-NFL QB who do film breakdown have dropped some breadcrumbs, of which my bottom line summation is, it's more than one cause.

 

 

Alot of the disjointed nature of our offense these last 2 seasons falls on the carousel of coordinators.  We've gone from Dabol to Dorsey to Brady in 2 years.  One week Josh accepts low positive.  The next week he's unleashed again.  I just wish some continuity starts with this offense while we wait around for an actual #2 WR to show up.

[Thurman#1]

On 1/6/2024 at 2:37 AM, Einstein said:

 

You’re confusing two different metrics. Separation SCORE and average yards of separation. What you linked to was part of the WRER metric (which I believe has been long abandoned) The author was explaining a SCORE for separation within the WRER formula (nearly a decade old). 

 

 

 

I've gone through the first two pages of the thread expecting you to address the weirdness you're saying here, and so far you haven't.

 

Did you just address it later? 

 

Or did I perhaps misunderstand what you are saying here?

 

You say that Bull was confusing the Separation score and average yards of separation. Right? Am I understanding that correctly? Which means, I think, that you are arguing that the horizontal axis represents, as you say, "average yards of separation."

 

I'm understanding you correctly, right? Something is very wrong if that's your argument, so maybe I'm completely misunderstanding you. If that's so, let me know, and please tell me what you're actually arguing.

 

Because if you're arguing that the horizontal axis is yards of separation, then you believe that the Bills average separation on the chart is 0.015 yards, which is 0.54 inches of separation on the average. Which makes absolutely no sense. DBs aren't even close to that good. You would also be arguing that the most open receiver group in the league, according to the chart Lamar Jackson's WRs, average being open by 0.033 yards according to the chart, which is 1.18 inches.

 

Really? The most open WRs average being 1.18 inches? While the Bills WRs average being open 0.54 inches? So our WRs are open about 6/10ths of an inch less than Lamar's?

 

Sorry, man, that is absolutely ridiculous.

 

If you go to NextGenStats, for instance, you can find that Stefon Diggs averages 2.8 yards of separation, that Gabe Davis averages the same, that Dalton Kincaid is 7th in the league at separation at 3.9.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#yards

 

You're arguing that the NFL average separation is less than an inch? I mean, how can anyone watch the games and argue that the average defender is closer than an inch to the average pass receiver?

 

I don't think there is a chance in hell that the horizontal axis is measuring yards of separation on that chart.

 

It must be measuring something else. My guess is that BullBuchanan is right and that they are measuring Separation Score. But if not Separation Score, it must be something else. Yards of separation does not average out to less than an inch of separation, it just does not.

 

But maybe I'm totally misunderstanding what you're saying. If so, please straighten me out.

[BullBuchanan]

He sure didn't find his receiver that time.

[Thurman#1]

On 1/7/2024 at 5:50 AM, HappyDays said:

 

Word for word this could describe Mahomes and the Chiefs this year. But the narrative around the two QBs is for some reason entirely different. Mahomes and Allen are obviously not perfect this year, but they are the only reason their passing offenses are performing at a top 10 level over the course of the season. Them putting on their Superman cape from time to time is in fact the difference. Average OL play and a below average group of pass catchers is not conducive to elite passing offense, I don't care who your QB is. I'm surprised after the year Mahomes has had that this debate hasn't been closed once and for all.

 

I think if Allen had the exact game that Mahomes had against us in week 14, there would be a lot of people on here saying that we would have won that game if Allen had played better. They would have pointed to the handful of missed throws Mahomes had and said "if your defense holds a top offense to 20 points, your QB has to find a way to get the win." But Bills fans don't watch other QBs with the same critical eye that they watch Allen. Every missed pass or bad read is treated like the end of the world on here, rather than the regular occurrence that it is for every single QB in every single game. I still see people blame Allen for the Eagles loss which is straight up unbelievable. I see people say things like "if Allen doesn't play like he did against the Dolphins this year (with his 158.3 pass rating), the Bills can't beat good teams" - and they say this is as a criticism of Allen. I see people say that if Allen doesn't play perfect for four straight games we have no chance at a Super Bowl, even though that has never been the case for any other Super Bowl winning QB.

 

So the expectations for QB play have gotten obscenely out of control on here. Every time I watch any other great QB play a game I see plenty of missed passes or jitteriness in the pocket. It is in fact completely normal. Allen misses 4 passes instead of 2 in a game and all of a sudden he doesn't care about his mechanics anymore, he's gone Hollywood, etc. It can't just be the normal ups and downs of a QB's season. It has to be the end of the world.

 

Also Gunner to your point on Cincy - I think talking about total investments made is a bit of a red herring. What matters is what's on the field. Cincy prioritized defense in the draft after giving Burrow an elite WR tandem. The Bills on the contrary have prioritized defensive line above all else every single year that McDermott has been here. They missed several opportunities to acquire top WR talent in the draft over the years. They failed to do what was necessary to pay for Hopkins this past offseason. At the end of the day the weapons they've surrounded Allen with this year have not been good enough, arguably worse even than what we had last year because Diggs is not performing like the true #1 he was last year. That's why our passing offense is where it is right now.

 

 

Come on.

 

Bills fans don't grade Allen more critically than other QBs. Just the opposite. They're going far out of their way to forgive any problems. Fans of every team with a franchise QB do the same. We're not alone, but that's the tendency, to blame anyone but the QB.

 

Allen hasn't performed this year as well as we've grown used to. He just hasn't.

 

You're right that no QB is perfect or even close. Nonetheless, Allen hasn't been as good this year. Pretty good last week, happily. But he'd been playing significantly below his standard for weeks before that. And to say that when you "watch any other great QB play a game I see plenty of missed passes or jitteriness in the pocket," is really really questionable. Some, sure? "Plenty"? No. Even great QBs have games like that but every time? Nah, it's just not so.

 

The draft is a game best played by teams that do NOT fixate on one position. Yeah, the Bengals got Burrows a really good WR pair. They did that in years when the draft fell in such a way that they felt WRs were good value where they drafted. 

 

And that the weapons are not good enough is really really NOT why our passing offense is where it is right now. It is PART of the reason our passing offense is where it is. Another part is that Allen hasn't been as good consistently. The O line overall has been very good this year, not much of the problem, but they weren't good last week. That's part of the problem also. Coaching too.

 

The problem is the whole unit.

 

As has been pointed out over and over here - correctly - very few Super Bowl winning teams have had weapons all that much better than ours. A few, yes. Most are at the same general level, instead using an excellent QB to paper over a solid but not elite group of weapons.

 

 

Edited January 8 by Thurman#1