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If the Bills Don’t Make it to the AFCCG, Should McDermott Be Fired?


Gugny

If the Bills Don’t Make it to the AFCCG, Should McDermott Be Fired?  

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  1. 1. If the Bills Don’t Make it to the AFCCG, Should McDermott Be Fired?



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Just now, oldmanfan said:

The two hardest things in sports to me are finding a real QB and, regardless of the sport, finding a great HC.  It is far more common for coaching switches not to work.

Like I said, what examples do you have of teams firing their HC when they have a franchise QB, and them getting demonstrably worse?

 

You said it's more common. I don't think you're right. Show your work.

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6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Like I said, what examples do you have of teams firing their HC when they have a franchise QB, and them getting demonstrably worse?

 

You said it's more common. I don't think you're right. Show your work.

In general.  You are placing a specific set of circumstances on changing coaches.  I’m not.  And you cited a couple of examples to prove your point but also acknowledged they didn’t win championships.

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7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

In general.  You are placing a specific set of circumstances on changing coaches.  I’m not.  And you cited a couple of examples to prove your point but also acknowledged they didn’t win championships.

We also haven't won championships.

 

So at worst, I've proved that its common to be basically a wash. But with several notable examples of it getting teams over the hump.

 

It's not more common for teams with franchise QB's to be worse after firing their coach. In fact, it's probably the rarest of all of the outcomes. So the argument " its more likely we could be worse off without McD" is just wrong.

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2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

We also haven't won championships.

 

So at worst, I've proved that its common to be basically a wash. But with several notable examples of it getting teams over the hump.

 

It's not more common for teams with franchise QB's to be worse after firing their coach. In fact, it's probably the rarest of all of the outcomes. So the argument " its more likely we could be worse off without McD" is just wrong.

Who do you want, that is available, to replace him?

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1 minute ago, FireChans said:

We also haven't won championships.

 

So at worst, I've proved that its common to be basically a wash. But with several notable examples of it getting teams over the hump.

 

It's not more common for teams with franchise QB's to be worse after firing their coach. In fact, it's probably the rarest of all of the outcomes. So the argument " its more likely we could be worse off without McD" is just wrong.

But I never said worse.  You did.  What I said is people always think the grass is greener but it rarely is.  So let’s say you replace a guy like McD with brand X.  You are doing so to make the next jump, and for the Bills it would be a Lombardi.  As you showed in the list of folks you mentioned many did not get their teams to make the next jump.  I find it interesting you use Marty S as an example since so many folks accuse McD of being another Marty I.e. can’t win the big one.

 

Be careful what you ask for, you might not get it.  You disagree that’s fine.

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Just now, oldmanfan said:

But I never said worse.  You did.  What I said is people always think the grass is greener but it rarely is.  So let’s say you replace a guy like McD with brand X.  You are doing so to make the next jump, and for the Bills it would be a Lombardi.  As you showed in the list of folks you mentioned many did not get their teams to make the next jump.  I find it interesting you use Marty S as an example since so many folks accuse McD of being another Marty I.e. can’t win the big one.

 

Be careful what you ask for, you might not get it.  You disagree that’s fine.

Not winning championships is just the same as not winning championships.

 

If we fired McD and hired a coach that got us to the Superbowl,  would it have been the right move?  Yes.

 

If we fired McD and hired a coach that got us to a divisional round exit, would it have been a bad move? No.

 

Marty S was an example of a team GETTING BETTER BECAUSE THEY FIRED HIM LOL.  They were paper tigers that couldn't win more than a playoff game. Norv took them the conference championship, with basically the same roster, one year later!

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5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Not winning championships is just the same as not winning championships.

 

If we fired McD and hired a coach that got us to the Superbowl,  would it have been the right move?  Yes.

 

If we fired McD and hired a coach that got us to a divisional round exit, would it have been a bad move? No.

 

Marty S was an example of a team GETTING BETTER BECAUSE THEY FIRED HIM LOL.  They were paper tigers that couldn't win more than a playoff game. Norv took them the conference championship, with basically the same roster, one year later!

So you would fire a guy if it meant the new guy would get you one step closer but still lose.  Well, that makes sense...

 

The problem you have is you’re not Nostradamus.  The stats on former HCs of Super Bowl teams taking another team to the dance are pretty poor if memory serves correct.  And picking a coordinator hoping they become a great HC aren’t great either.

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29 minutes ago, Slack_in_MA said:

Who do you want, that is available, to replace him?

I'm not advocating for firing McD right now, or even at the end of the year, if this season is a disappointment.  I think he has set a culture change in Buffalo from what we were, and I still think he's a good NFL coach.  Maybe not the best, but he's good IMO.

 

I am advocating for firing Dorsey pretty much any day now.

 

And if the OC position was not filled adequately next year with a guy who can actually do the job, I would probably fire McD next season.

 

But since you asked, I think pairing Josh with an offensive mind like Ben Johnson, who can set up a system around him, who can step in and fix the offense if an OC or two get hired away, would probably be our best vehicle for success.

 

There is one glaring flaw to McD's expertise, and that is that he cannot help us on offense.  When so many wins and losses in the NFL are basically because of your QB's arm, a coach with expertise in that area, to me, is far more valuable than a defensive coach, intrinsically.

 

When the Chiefs get into a rut, Andy Reid can step in, make some suggestions to Nagy, and if things are still going bad, he can call the plays himself. And Patrick Mahomes, who has already seen a couple coordinators on offense leave, doesn't have to have much, if anything, change around him in regards to the offenses direction.

 

Josh Allen is currently not in the same boat. If Ken Dorsey was this awesome electric OC, and was being talked about as an HC candidate (he's not, which is pretty much proof positive that he sucks because the offense statistically is still pretty good) and got hired away, there's a chance, a large chance, we would have another year or two of growing pains and new systems, new philosophies, etc. OR we would be promoting another QB coach or someone else who had little experience without a HC who could help them out who had proven years of NFL success in the OC role.

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

So you would fire a guy if it meant the new guy would get you one step closer but still lose.  Well, that makes sense...

 

The problem you have is you’re not Nostradamus.  The stats on former HCs of Super Bowl teams taking another team to the dance are pretty poor if memory serves correct.  And picking a coordinator hoping they become a great HC aren’t great either.

No one is Nostradamus. If you are in the business of "we can't fire a coach because we don't know with 100% accuracy at the time of the decision that it will work out," well then, you're never going to agree.

 

Unfortunately, in reality, NFL owners and front offices have to deal with the uncertainty every single day about every single decision.

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2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

He's 26.

 

People are acting like he's 36 


Joe - first of all, hello. 
 

But if you look at recent history, you’ll see that teams have won the Super Bowl with top tier QBs within their first 4 years of starting. 
 

We are in year six. 
 

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6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I'm not advocating for firing McD right now, or even at the end of the year, if this season is a disappointment.  I think he has set a culture change in Buffalo from what we were, and I still think he's a good NFL coach.  Maybe not the best, but he's good IMO.

 

I am advocating for firing Dorsey pretty much any day now.

 

And if the OC position was not filled adequately next year with a guy who can actually do the job, I would probably fire McD next season.

 

But since you asked, I think pairing Josh with an offensive mind like Ben Johnson, who can set up a system around him, who can step in and fix the offense if an OC or two get hired away, would probably be our best vehicle for success.

 

There is one glaring flaw to McD's expertise, and that is that he cannot help us on offense.  When so many wins and losses in the NFL are basically because of your QB's arm, a coach with expertise in that area, to me, is far more valuable than a defensive coach, intrinsically.

 

When the Chiefs get into a rut, Andy Reid can step in, make some suggestions to Nagy, and if things are still going bad, he can call the plays himself. And Patrick Mahomes, who has already seen a couple coordinators on offense leave, doesn't have to have much, if anything, change around him in regards to the offenses direction.

 

Josh Allen is currently not in the same boat. If Ken Dorsey was this awesome electric OC, and was being talked about as an HC candidate (he's not, which is pretty much proof positive that he sucks because the offense statistically is still pretty good) and got hired away, there's a chance, a large chance, we would have another year or two of growing pains and new systems, new philosophies, etc. OR we would be promoting another QB coach or someone else who had little experience without a HC who could help them out who had proven years of NFL success in the OC role.

No one is Nostradamus. If you are in the business of "we can't fire a coach because we don't know with 100% accuracy at the time of the decision that it will work out," well then, you're never going to agree.

 

Unfortunately, in reality, NFL owners and front offices have to deal with the uncertainty every single day about every single decision.

And as far as HC go it’s magnified.  You mention Johnson.  He’ll be the hot commodity this coming off season.  But does he have what it takes to be a HC?  Only one way to find out and if you’re wrong you cost your team years.

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Just now, oldmanfan said:

And as far as HC go it’s magnified.  You mention Johnson.  He’ll be the hot commodity this coming off season.  But does he have what it takes to be a HC?  Inly one way to find out and if you’re wrong you cost your team years.

I HAVE JUST PROVED THAT THIS IS EMPHATICALLY NOT TRUE IN SITUATIONS LIKE OURS.

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2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I HAVE JUST PROVED THAT THIS IS EMPHATICALLY NOT TRUE IN SITUATIONS LIKE OURS.

No you haven’t.  Most of your examples the guys did not win Lombardis.  If I’m reading you right you’re saying McAfoo replacing Coughlin is proof of your thesis because he got Eli to 11-5 after a few losing seasons.  If that’s your proof it’s laughable.

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1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

No you haven’t.  Most of your examples the guys did not win Lombardis.

that does not equal COSTING YOUR TEAM YEARS.

 

Unless you think McD not winning Lombardi either is also costing our team years lmao. In which case, wtf are you even arguing then?

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1 minute ago, FireChans said:

that does not equal COSTING YOUR TEAM YEARS.

 

Unless you think McD not winning Lombardi either is also costing our team years lmao. In which case, wtf are you even arguing then?

You keep a HC that get you in the playoffs and give you a legitimate shot.  If he starts losing or starts losing the locker room you make a change.  That’s my philosophy.  Obviously not yours.

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1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

You keep a HC that get you in the playoffs and give you a legitimate shot.  If he starts losing or starts losing the locker room you make a change.  That’s my philosophy.  Obviously not yours.

So new coach who doesn't win Lombardis = costing team seasons

 

McD not winning Lombardis =/= costing team seasons

 

that just does not compute.

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4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

So new coach who doesn't win Lombardis = costing team seasons

 

McD not winning Lombardis =/= costing team seasons

 

that just does not compute.

If you hire a guy that does not win, it costs you seasons.  McD gets you to the playoffs every year. He wins.  That gives you a shot.  But as I said if he starts to slide backward or starts losing the locker room you make a change.  I would also add managing the staff.  It was a smart move in my opinion to jettison Frazier and take over the D.  The D D s playing much better again IMHO.  He may need to look at OC if the struggles continue.  But since Josh wanted Dorsey from all accounts that would be an interesting call.

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6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

If you hire a guy that does not win, it costs you seasons.  McD gets you to the playoffs every year. He wins.  That gives you a shot.  But as I said if he starts to slide backward or starts losing the locker room you make a change.  I would also add managing the staff.  It was a smart move in my opinion to jettison Frazier and take over the D.  The D D s playing much better again IMHO.  He may need to look at OC if the struggles continue.  But since Josh wanted Dorsey from all accounts that would be an interesting call.

So we're just walking away from the point that new coaches with franchise QB's didn't work because they didn't all win Superbowls?

 

And we are ignoring that they have mostly won MORE playoff games and got deeper into the postseason?

 

Oooookay.

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26 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You keep a HC that get you in the playoffs and give you a legitimate shot.  If he starts losing or starts losing the locker room you make a change.  That’s my philosophy.  Obviously not yours.


Did you watch their last playoff game?

 

Or this year’s Jets and Jaguars games?

 

I’ve never seen more uninspired, “I’d rather be doing anything right now other than playing football,” football in my life. 
 

He lost this team after 13 seconds. 

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No I don’t want Sean McDermott fired if the Buffalo Bills don’t make the playoffs this season. First Don Granato needs to be fired if the Buffalo Sabres miss the playoffs this season regardless if it is only one point he needs to go if the Sabres don’t make it. I would hire Michael Peca as the new Sabres head coach. I don’t think the Buffalo Bills are Super Bowl contenders right now that window closed for now and the Bills need to rebuild on the fly in the draft. The Bills need offensive line badly, secondary help on defense and a go to running back with elite talent not above average talent before I start looking at Sean McDermott. With one exception if Bill Belichick became available I am interested as a Bills fan. Bill Belichick coaching a elite quarterback in Josh Allen would be the only exception where I would fire Sean McDermott. If Bill became available Sean goes as head coach only for Bill Belichick Brandon Beane would still be the Bills GM. Because I have no interest in Bill Belichick as a GM in my opinion. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo 

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48 minutes ago, Gugny said:


Did you watch their last playoff game?

 

Or this year’s Jets and Jaguars games?

 

I’ve never seen more uninspired, “I’d rather be doing anything right now other than playing football,” football in my life. 
 

He lost this team after 13 seconds. 

If true he shouldn’t be there.  It’s not true of course but whatever makes you happy.  

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3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

If true he shouldn’t be there.  It’s not true of course but whatever makes you happy.  


So explain the playoff game. They were tired?  They were distraught?  Give me a break. 
 

Trevor Lawrence and Zack f*cking Wilson look like prime Joe Montana and our offense can’t keep up with them?

 

Let me guess. Jet lag!?

 

We’ve been making excuses for too long. 
 

As I said earlier … one common denominator. 

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5 hours ago, Gugny said:


So explain the playoff game. They were tired?  They were distraught?  Give me a break. 
 

Trevor Lawrence and Zack f*cking Wilson look like prime Joe Montana and our offense can’t keep up with them?

 

Let me guess. Jet lag!?

 

We’ve been making excuses for too long. 
 

As I said earlier … one common denominator. 

The 13 second game?  Dumb, Frazier should have had the D knock WRs down and McD should have overruled him.  I’ve already said that.

 

Jets?  Our star QB threw up on himself the entire second half.

 

Jags?  Again the offense didn’t play well.

 

Should we be 6-0?  Yes.  All on McD?  Because he’s HC theoretically yes.  In actuality certainly not the Jets game.

 

And the 3 blowouts.  Is he responsible for wiping out a really hot Fish team?  Don’t worry, I suspect I know your answer.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The 13 second game?  Dumb, Frazier should have had the D knock WRs down and McD should have overruled him.  I’ve already said that.

 

Jets?  Our star QB threw up on himself the entire second half.

 

Jags?  Again the offense didn’t play well.

 

Should we need 6-0?  Yes.  All on McD?  Because he’s HC theoretically yes.  In actuality certainly not the Jets game.

 

And the 3 blowouts.  Is he responsible blue for wiping out a really hot Fish team?  Don’t worry, I suspect I know your answer.

 

 

When the Bills lose it's Allen's fault

 

When we win it's because of McDermott

 

The guy just doesn't miss😂😂

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2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

When the Bills lose it's Allen's fault

 

When we win it's because of McDermott

 

The guy just doesn't miss😂😂

Allen is one of the best players the Bills have ever had.  He is to me the most talented QB in the league.  He has won a ton of games for the Bills.  But he lost the Jets game because he stunk.  He said so himself.
 

As HC McD is ultimately responsible for the team’s play.  When they lose he has to answer for it.  But when they win he deserves credit for it as well.

 

Is this really that hard to understand?

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30 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Allen is one of the best players the Bills have ever had.  He is to me the most talented QB in the league.  He has won a ton of games for the Bills.  But he lost the Jets game because he stunk.  He said so himself.
 

As HC McD is ultimately responsible for the team’s play.  When they lose he has to answer for it.  But when they win he deserves credit for it as well.

 

Is this really that hard to understand?

You've convinced me. If not for being saddled with Josh Allen and the offense McDermott would probably be undefeated.

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TPegs learned the hard way with the revolving door at HC/GM with both his teams.  Beane/McDermott & Adams/Granato are very consistent, experienced and proving their value. Personally, I’m not a fan of Sean, but I recognize his real value.

 

6 hours ago, Gugny said:


So explain the playoff game. They were tired?  They were distraught?  Give me a break. 
 

Trevor Lawrence and Zack f*cking Wilson look like prime Joe Montana and our offense can’t keep up with them?

 

Let me guess. Jet lag!?

 

We’ve been making excuses for too long. 
 

As I said earlier … one common denominator. 

Rousing rabbles again, I see. 😂 This crowd is too easy. You need a more competent stage for this act.

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8 hours ago, Gugny said:


Joe - first of all, hello. 
 

But if you look at recent history, you’ll see that teams have won the Super Bowl with top tier QBs within their first 4 years of starting. 
 

We are in year six. 
 

Hello.

 

Payton Manning didn't win his first in his first four seasons. I'm not sure about Rodgers, either. You're right on mahomes, but that's mahomes, and he stepped in to  a 10 win team, not an utter wasteland like the bills. 

 

The key to winning a super bowl is first and foremost making the playoffs. Can't get there if you don't. The more shots you take, the better chance you make one. 

 

Also, I'd like to point out that our QB has been known to be a bit lazy in film study, and I think that shows in games. He very often misses wide open reads that other QBs would take. If the coaches scheme a player open it's incumbent on Josh to take that read, regardless of who that player is.

 

Does any of this mean I think the coaching staff is perfect? Absolutely not. But it's REALLY hard for me to dogpile on a group that's brought us back to back to back divisional titles 

 

Lastly, I'd like to point out that McDermott took a team led by tuhrod taylor to the playoffs. It's indisputable that that's probably the greatest coaching job in 20 years in the NFL, and it's a sham that he wasn't COTY for that performance.

 

 

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15 hours ago, BananaB said:

I’m not comparing him to anyone. Most of resources over the past 5 years have went to improve his defense. Injuries or not, the group should be playing at a high level because of what the invested in it.  For most of that period our O has been getting scraps. Oline especially 



I agree about the lack of forward vision for the Offense / Oline... I put that on Beane 

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Good defensive playcaller, we believe he gets the guys to buy in(im not so sure the same schtick works long term), poor game sense.

 

Hes got DC written all over him. This team needs an offensive mentality. Simple as that. Some one who can truly maximize Josh Allen and actually invest and attack the offensive needs.

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14 hours ago, Gugny said:


I may be guilty of mildly trolling in the past. But those days are behind me now!

 

This is absolutely a serious topic for discussion. 
 

I’m not calling for the guy’s head. But I think we’re at the point where we need to start asking ourselves how long we can wait for this team to go the distance with a top tier QB. 

 

It took the Bills 17 years to replace Kelly. 
 

I’ll be damned if Allen’s prime years are wasted on an arrogant, rigid, beady-eyed little prick while other teams on the NFL continue to understand how to build around Allen’s kind of talent - and even some LESS-talented QBs. 
 

My frustration and concern are real … and so is this topic. 


I think it’s a bit of an overreaction IMO.  The Bills have won more games than almost every other team in the NFL the past 4 seasons.  Obviously they haven’t won a Super Bowl but we all know what happened… the thing is to win a SB you really need to have a lot go right.  There are many years where the best team that season hasn’t won’t a SB or even made it there.  

 

I know you’re not in this boat, but thing that people who demand firing one of the most successful coaches in team history fail to realize is that making a move doesn’t ensure that things get any better.

 

There are people who have said the Bills should fire McDermott and hire someone w/o any HC experience like Ben Johnson in Detroit just because he’s the “hot name.”  Plenty of good assistants have made terrible coaches.  

 

Everyone wants to point to John Fox in Denver but that situation is an outlier.  
 

When SD fired Marty, they didn’t fair much better and never made it out of the playoffs.  Marty’s firing in itself is somewhat of an outlier as well.  


Besides this whole point is moot, because the chances of a McDermott firing are slim-to-none considering he re-signed a new deal.  

 

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On 10/18/2023 at 12:07 AM, Bills!Win! said:

He’s the new Marvin Lewis. Status Quo

Without looking it up, IIRC Marvin's issue was that he would get to the playoffs and basically flame out the first round--at least we've made some inroads there. Also, Marvin's teams weren't even the best in that division many years, while we are division champs consistently. No clear comparison, IMHO.  

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28 minutes ago, JohnNord said:


I think it’s a bit of an overreaction IMO.  The Bills have won more games than almost every other team in the NFL the past 4 seasons.  Obviously they haven’t won a Super Bowl but we all know what happened… the thing is to win a SB you really need to have a lot go right.  There are many years where the best team that season hasn’t won’t a SB or even made it there.  

 

I know you’re not in this boat, but thing that people who demand firing one of the most successful coaches in team history fail to realize is that making a move doesn’t ensure that things get any better.

 

There are people who have said the Bills should fire McDermott and hire someone w/o any HC experience like Ben Johnson in Detroit just because he’s the “hot name.”  Plenty of good assistants have made terrible coaches.  

 

Everyone wants to point to John Fox in Denver but that situation is an outlier.  
 

When SD fired Marty, they didn’t fair much better and never made it out of the playoffs.  Marty’s firing in itself is somewhat of an outlier as well.  


Besides this whole point is moot, because the chances of a McDermott firing are slim-to-none considering he re-signed a new deal.  

 


There is a chance that I may be overreacting, but I really don’t think I am. 
 

I am always careful to acknowledge and respect the good things that McDermott has done.
 

But becoming a regular-season warrior doesn’t grant one immunity from criticism for post-season shortcomings. 
 

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4 minutes ago, Gugny said:


There is a chance that I may be overreacting, but I really don’t think I am. 
 

I am always careful to acknowledge and respect the good things that McDermott has done.
 

But becoming a regular-season warrior doesn’t grant one immunity from criticism for post-season shortcomings. 
 

I mean, shouldn't we maybe wait till the post-season this year?

 

 

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1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

I mean, shouldn't we maybe wait till the post-season this year?

 

 


Had we been improving year-to-year, then yes. 
 

But the team has gone backwards year-to-year. 
 

I think it’s the perfect time for this discussion, since we’re 1/3 of the way through the regular season and the six games played have shown continued inconsistency, continued lack of execution and continued lack of discipline. 
 

 

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The premise of the original post was not to consider mcdermott for not winning the super bowl, but rather advancing to the NFL final four.  That is a meaningful accomplishment but only 50% of the way to finishing a post season with a championship.  (WC,divisional,conf champ, super bowl).

To be fair I decided to take a look on the coaches who have made it to the championship game since McDermott became head coach.

AFC:
Andy Reid, 2018,2019,2020,2021, 2022

Zac Taylor, 2021, 2022

Bill Belichek, 2018

Mike Vrabel, 2019
Sean McDermott, 2020

NFC:
Sean McVay 2018,2021

Sean Peyton 2018

Kyle Shanahan. 2019,2021,2022

Matt Lafleur, 2019, 2020

Bruce Arians, 2020

Nick Sirianni, 2022

 

Everyone on the list is a good coach.  Not everyone is the best coach.  It should be noted, that not everyone had 5 shots, because of when they were hired, or retired.

 

There is only two guys who are guaranteed to be in the HOF someday. Although I expect at least 4 to be there eventually.

 

 

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