Numbers suggest your narratives are wrong on the offense.

[MAJBobby]

Here it is.  You can see it in the charts.

 

We hear so much about the Shell that defenses play when against the Bills.  What you dont see in the passing charts is those cover two beaters in the middle from the 10 to 20 yard range.

 

I mean seriously I would have to think those routes are in the playbook, otherwise it is malpractice knowing you are going to face a shell EVERY GAME and you have no routes designed specifically to beat that shell.  

[strive_for_five_guy]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

On the whole season last year McKenzie had 65 catches. 27 of those were for 1st downs. Not sure that qualifies as a first down machine.

Think you mean 65 targets, and 42 catches.  This is good stuff though, maybe we can walk back from the ledge a little.  Like the upside of Kincaid and some of the other WRs, as the season progresses.

Edited October 16, 2023 by strive_for_five_guy

[BuffaloBillyG]

5 minutes ago, pocoboy said:

So let's get to the heart of the matter...

 

The stat that's missing is...Josh ground game. If you discard that from your playbook, the rest must come up and fill in the gaps. And everything is pretty much the same, nothing has truly picked up that lack of dynamism.

Without doing the math right this second...I would venture to say that the loss of Allen running has been made up by Cook/Murray. I'll look into that later if I can.

1 minute ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Think you mean 65 targets, and 42 catches.

Lol, yes thank you. Eyes still aren't up to snuff after a late night last night😂

[MJS]

People are angry. When they are angry they can't process information. They just want heads to roll.

 

But it was a valiant effort.

[Best Williams Available]

Slot numbers have to decrease if the run game is improved and they’re running more 12 personnel correct?

[DrDawkinstein]

35 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Also, as one in the comments section notes, run game is FAR improved over last year, by the naked eye

 

 

Is that the problem tho?

 

Bills in 2023 have by far the best run game they've had in the McD/Allen era... and the result is the most lackluster offense we've seen here so far.

 

I dont really think it's a "problem", but I would say our reliance on ONLY the RBs to run the ball, and not letting/calling Josh runs anymore, severely hampers the offense.

[Fleezoid]

26 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

My narrative is that our offense is vanilla, abandons the run when it shouldn’t, is predictable and lacks creativity. 

 

Yes. I'll take the eye test over numbers any day of the week. My eyes don't lie to me. Even my beer goggles are honest!

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Here it is.  You can see it in the charts.

 

We hear so much about the Shell that defenses play when against the Bills.  What you dont see in the passing charts is those cover two beaters in the middle from the 10 to 20 yard range.

 

I mean seriously I would have to think those routes are in the playbook, otherwise it is malpractice knowing you are going to face a shell EVERY GAME and you have no routes designed specifically to beat that shell.  

Easiest solution in my opinion as a counter to that cover 2 IMO is TE usage. But it's hard to get the TR in the seem or 15 yards upfield in time when they have to chip. 

 

The INT Josh threw last night looked like one of those routes, however.

[Sharky7337]

Too bad last year we had a problem too and the numbers being the same or similar are a good sign of more problems?

Edited October 16, 2023 by Sharky7337

[BillsFan130]

Stats only tell a certain story.

The fact is the bills have been excellent in 3 games on offence, and horrible in 3.

 

50/50 which isn’t good enough when you have Josh Allen on QB

 

Those 2 losses were on the offence, and yesterday if they lost, it would have 100 percent on them as well.

Edited October 16, 2023 by BillsFan130

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Easiest solution in my opinion as a counter to that cover 2 IMO is TE usage. But it's hard to get the TR in the seem or 15 yards upfield in time when they have to chip. 

 

The INT Josh threw last night looked like one of those routes, however.

Yeah and it really took a hell of a play from a LBer playing out of his mind last night to make the play on that Pick.  

[kota]

The issue with the offense is that it relies on Diggs to get open.  He is the number one targeted WR for good reason.  IF teams are double teaming him where is everyone else?  Where is Hardy?  Mckensie caught a bunch more passes last year at this time.

Where is KinCaid?  Can we not get him running down the seam?  

Where is Knox?  His product is down as well.  

 

What about Gabe?

[Alphadawg7]

43 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Came across the following tweet. Pulled the numbers out so they are front and center.  Credit to "Rico" for doing the leg work. But I have seen a LOT of common themes parroted today and the numbers show that for the most part the opinions of some (including some opinions I've had) may not be fully true.

 

 

First off...the new narrative that Josh is suddenly force feeding Diggs and only Diggs the ball to keep him happy. Through 6 games Diggs has only 1 more target than last year. My theory is that the perception that Allen is forcing Diggs the ball more has to do with the lack of targets for Stef at the end of the year.

 

After 6 weeks 
5-1 record.              4-2 Record 
#Diggs  22'             Diggs  23'
65 targets               66 targets 
49 recs                    49 Rec 
6tds                           5tds

 

Second...Gabe Davis hasn't improved. That's another false narrative IMO that the numbers seemingly back up. This time last year Dais had a 53% catch rate. Through the same amount of games his rate has jumped to 70%. Most of his catches have gone for 1st downs or TDs. He has been a HIGHLY efficient player so far this year. I have checked 3 sources this morning and have seen him "credited" with TWO official drops this year on one of them and ONE in the other two. If someone can provide another official source that is higher, please do. His fumble last night was just the third time in his career he's fumbled  and it was an excellent play by the defense. Gabe Davis is NOT the problem.

 

#Davis 22'.             Davis 23'
26 targets              30 Targets
14 Rec                      21 rec
4tds                          4tds

 

Third...Knox has to be a blocker all the time now. And while it's true he is asked to chip a fair amount...he still runs a pass pattern after most times. He's actually had 5 more targets this year. His problem has been he's not making the tough catches we are used to seeing him make. 

 

#Knox 22'               Knox 23'
20 Targets              25 Targets
15 rec                        14 Rec
1TD                             1TD

 

Fourth...slot receiver has been a bust. True, yet maybe a bit too early to lose hope. Notable with Kincaid missing last night he's only got 5 games in. I would have expected a few balls his way to raise these numbers, but the fact of the matter is while the TDa haven't been there (yet) and his opportunity hasn't been as high, he's actually been much more efficient than what we had in the slot last year. He's a rookie still figuring things out. I think the best is yet to come here.

 

#Mckenzie 22'       #Kincaid 23'
26 targets               19 Targets
17 Rec                       17 Rec
3tds                           0 TDs   

 

The offense wasn't good enough last year.  So who cares if SOME stats match last years.  We DONT want to be the same struggling offense as last year where things are always hard.  

 

What is the point of trying to prove this inconsistent and sometimes anemic offense is the same as last years inconsistent and sometimes anemic offense?  

 

Who cares if Dorsey is as dumb in the redzone this year running out of shotgun on the 3 inch line on the goal line as he was with those dumb decisions as last year. 

 

People talk about last year like we won the Super Bowl.  We got smashed at home in the playoffs after squeaking by Miami who started a backup QB.  But people want to say "Hey look, we are the same as last year" to feel better about the terrible job Dorsey is AGAIN doing?  

 

No disrespect...But I do not understand this mentality at all.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Here it is.  You can see it in the charts.

 

We hear so much about the Shell that defenses play when against the Bills.  What you dont see in the passing charts is those cover two beaters in the middle from the 10 to 20 yard range.

 

I mean seriously I would have to think those routes are in the playbook, otherwise it is malpractice knowing you are going to face a shell EVERY GAME and you have no routes designed specifically to beat that shell.  

 

There's a couple ways to look at it.  You can stretch the seam and force them to back off, or you can run it consistently and force them to play closer to the LOS.  The 2nd half offense seemed to say: You want to play your linebackers back, and safeties 15 yards off?  Fine - we'll line up under center and keep gashing you into makeable 3rd downs where we can throw short.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

11 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Is that the problem tho?

 

Bills in 2023 have by far the best run game they've had in the McD/Allen era... and the result is the most lackluster offense we've seen here so far.

 

I dont really think it's a "problem", but I would say our reliance on ONLY the RBs to run the ball, and not letting/calling Josh runs anymore, severely hampers the offense.

I think you misunderstand, I think the run game has become a strength where last year it's a weakness

 

[GottaRun]

My number from last night is Sherfield with 0 yards and 0 catches (maybe 0 targets?) despite being wide friggin open many times, and at least a couple of times early in his route.  I'm not sure if Josh ever looked his way.  

[mjt328]

I thought the idea was to be BETTER than last year.  

Last year saw another early playoff exit.  

 

I'm seeing the same inconsistent offense that puts up 40/50 points one week, and then looks totally lost a week later.  I'm seeing a group that has already cost us two games, and almost landed us a third loss last night.  This close to being .500 and third place in the AFC East, but we are supposed to feel good, because the unit still averages out in the Top 3-5 of the NFL.  

 

We added new receiving talent, including trading up for a rookie tight end in the first round.  The drops aren't happening as much this year.  Yet we STILL can't seem to get anyone going on a consistent basis besides Stefon Diggs.  Double and triple covered, yet we are forcing him the ball.  

 

We upgraded the interior O-Line and have a strong group of RBs, who are producing a very nice YPC.  But for some reason, our offensive coordinator REFUSES to lean on the running game.  There is no point loading the box, because we aren't going to stick with it.  

 

[UKBillFan]

16 minutes ago, Sharky7337 said:

Too bad last year we had a problem too and the numbers being the same or similar are a good sign of more problems?

 

The numbers were taken from the first six weeks, where the Bills certainly DIDN'T have an issue with offense, the heat game in Miami aside.

Edited October 16, 2023 by UKBillFan

[Simon]

9 minutes ago, GottaRun said:

My number from last night is Sherfield with 0 yards and 0 catches (maybe 0 targets?) despite being wide friggin open many times, and at least a couple of times early in his route.  I'm not sure if Josh ever looked his way.  

 

Josh went to him early on a post-corner (I think; not 100% sure where Sherfield was lined up) that likely would have been a big gain but it was one of the incidental contact plays where he got tripped up.

[Figster]

1 hour ago, Yobogoya! said:

Personally I don't see anything wrong with Diggs being the focal point of the passing game -- I mean, that's what he's here for. He's also our most reliable catcher and it's not particularly close comparing him to any of the other options. 

 

Especially if he's in an exploitable matchup. There are plenty of DB's he can take to school, and frequently does so when its 1-vs-1. 

 

But the offense clearly lacks creativity in scheming up plays for our depth players: We have no "gadget" plays. We have zero screen game. Our dual-threat TE's are outlet options only. We don't just need more consistently from our 2nd and 3rd options, we need plays designed to exploit their strengths. 

This 

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

My narrative is that our offense is vanilla, abandons the run when it shouldn’t, is predictable and lacks creativity. 

This

1 hour ago, pocoboy said:

So let's get to the heart of the matter...

 

The stat that's missing is...Josh ground game. If you discard that from your playbook, the rest must come up and fill in the gaps. And everything is pretty much the same, nothing has truly picked up that lack of dynamism.

and this...

 

The McBeane regime can take part credit/blame for the removal of the Josh ground game/ Hell on wheels from the Daboll/Dorsey playbook IMO.   

Edited October 16, 2023 by Figster