Gabe Davis - deep stat improvement

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

Of course, if you can get a sure handed outlet like JuJu for $3.5M the Bills should go out and do that.

 

So JuJu was somewhat of an outlier in the group I'm talking about. I went back and found my examples of #2 pass catching targets in the last 6 Super Bowls:

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Devonta Smith

Tee Higgins

OBJ

Chris Godwin (in an almost dead heat with Rob Gronkowski)

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

Deebo Samuel

Julian Edelman

Brandin Cooks

Zach Ertz

Rob Gronkowski

 

Again, I don't think there's any reasonable disagreement that the above players were better pass catchers than Gabe Davis in those respective seasons.

 

The difference with JuJu is he was a cheap FA signing. Most of the players on that list were drafted by that team. The Chiefs kind of got lucky, because of course they did. They signed a previously very good but oft-injured WR to a 1 year prove it deal and it paid off big time. We signed Jamison Crowder and got nothing.

 

I hear you on the big WR2 contract. With Allen and Diggs it probably isn't feasible. We have simply neglected the position in the draft. But my point has been that every team who makes it to the Super Bowl in recent history has had not just a top tier #1 pass catcher, but a very good #2 as well. We are lagging behind in that area.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

Gabe is fine for what he is, he just never developed into a real #2. Doesn't get open enough to be that. 

 

That's our issue against top defenses. If they double or cover Diggs well, the other guys just don't get open enough. It is still something that concerns me about the playoffs. 

[dave mcbride]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So JuJu was somewhat of an outlier in the group I'm talking about. I went back and found my examples of #2 pass catching targets in the last 6 Super Bowls:

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Devonta Smith

Tee Higgins

OBJ

Chris Godwin (in an almost dead heat with Rob Gronkowski)

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

Deebo Samuel

Julian Edelman

Brandin Cooks

Zach Ertz

Rob Gronkowski

 

Again, I don't think there's any reasonable disagreement that the above players were better pass catchers than Gabe Davis in those respective seasons.

 

The difference with JuJu is he was a cheap FA signing. Most of the players on that list were drafted by that team. The Chiefs kind of got lucky, because of course they did. They signed a previously very good but oft-injured WR to a 1 year prove it deal and it paid off big time. We signed Jamison Crowder and got nothing.

 

I hear you on the big WR2 contract. With Allen and Diggs it probably isn't feasible. We have simply neglected the position in the draft. But my point has been that every team who makes it to the Super Bowl in recent history has had not just a top tier #1 pass catcher, but a very good #2 as well. We are lagging behind in that area.

Let's see where Kincaid is by the end of the season. I have a hunch they've cooked up some bigger plays for him that'll show up as the season progresses. He's on pace for 64 catches and has caught 15 of the 17 balls thrown his way. The success rate is 70.6 percent, which is really good. The ypc is low, but I don't expect that to stay static given what I know about his game.  I expect we'll see him getting an increasing number of targets as we get into the second half of the season.

Edited October 3, 2023 by dave mcbride

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Let's see where Kincaid is by the end of the season. I have a hunch they've cooked up some bigger plays for him that'll show up as the season progresses. He's on pace for 64 catches and has caught 15 of the 17 balls thrown his way. The success rate is 70.6 percent, which is really good. The ypc is low, but I don't expect that to stay static given what I know about his game.  I expect we'll see him getting an increasing number of targets as we get into the second half of the season.

 

I'm a huge fan of Kincaid and I think he has a great future here. But I want our #2 to be someone that can be relied upon if a defense takes away Diggs. Not to the same caliber as Diggs obviously, just enough so that our offense isn't totally handicapped in those situations. I haven't seen anything from Kincaid so far that makes me think he can be that guy yet. Right now he is a role player, not someone we can funnel the offense through.

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm a huge fan of Kincaid and I think he has a great future here. But I want our #2 to be someone that can be relied upon if a defense takes away Diggs. Not to the same caliber as Diggs obviously, just enough so that our offense isn't totally handicapped in those situations. I haven't seen anything from Kincaid so far that makes me think he can be that guy yet. Right now he is a role player, not someone we can funnel the offense through.

I hear you, but we have only played four games. I think they're gradually incorporating him into the offense by giving him a lot of early (and to be fair easy) successes. But he's too good at seam routes and getting open for that to remain under wraps for too long. At a certain point, I expect to see them expand his route tree through deeper routes. 

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

All true and reasonable.

 

And a lot of what you are buying when you pay an elite QB is the chance to be wildly successful without spending tons and tons on WRs. Look at Brady. Mahomes. Rodgers. There are certainly some exceptions, but when you are paying a top 6 or 7 QB, you have a lot less money to work with, and so you tend to expect your QB to be really really effective with less.

 

Further upthread I posted the breakdown of the last couple cap implications of pass catchers. I was on my phone in bed so there was a little bit of wonky math. It is minimal. That is a very important part of the equation. Something to consider when you talk about the cap situation in KC is that Kelce is a TE and gets paid like a great TE, not a great receiver. It makes a difference.

 

Here is a quick summary with cap$ and cap% just because total cap dollars has some peaks and plateaus with COVID.

 

The Bills are in a good spot (this year) in terms of cap allocation. Upgrading Davis is a reasonable conversation. But not at any real cost. 

 

34 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So JuJu was somewhat of an outlier in the group I'm talking about. I went back and found my examples of #2 pass catching targets in the last 6 Super Bowls:

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Devonta Smith

Tee Higgins

OBJ

Chris Godwin (in an almost dead heat with Rob Gronkowski)

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

Deebo Samuel

Julian Edelman

Brandin Cooks

Zach Ertz

Rob Gronkowski

 

Again, I don't think there's any reasonable disagreement that the above players were better pass catchers than Gabe Davis in those respective seasons.

 

The difference with JuJu is he was a cheap FA signing. Most of the players on that list were drafted by that team. The Chiefs kind of got lucky, because of course they did. They signed a previously very good but oft-injured WR to a 1 year prove it deal and it paid off big time. We signed Jamison Crowder and got nothing.

 

I hear you on the big WR2 contract. With Allen and Diggs it probably isn't feasible. We have simply neglected the position in the draft. But my point has been that every team who makes it to the Super Bowl in recent history has had not just a top tier #1 pass catcher, but a very good #2 as well. We are lagging behind in that area.

 

You are sort of just naming names without telling the whole story. They are good, and better than Davis, but you can't talk about value without talking about their cost when they won those games. Almost all of those guys were on cheap and/or rookie contracts. 

There is no paying a 1a/1b receiver while winning a championship. 

At some point the secondary outlet is about the QB spreading the ball around and putting the right athletes in the proper position to succeed. as much as it is about the guys playing the position.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Mango

[Billsfan1972]

17 hours ago, Mango said:

Honestly this is the way it should be. The offense every week should be 6-10 targets to Diggs and 25 targets to 6 other receivers. We have sucked at spreading the ball around. 
 

I’ve never been a huge proponent of 1a/1b. You need a guy and a bunch of “pretty good” to spread the defense out. 

6-10 Targets only?????  Geez could you imaging how pissed any elite receiver would be with only 8/game?  Should be a minimum 10/gm.

 

As for Gabe, he has averaged 3 catches/game.  51 receptions for the year would have ranked him 75th in the league!!!!!

 

But geez only 48 last year (33rd in yards).

 

BTW Zay Jones had 82 catches last year.🤪

 

Need way more from him.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[eball]

7 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Need way more from him

Damn skippy. The way we’ve had to white-knuckle these last three weeks is wearing me down…

 

[NoSaint]

14 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, I don't get it either.  

 

He's got 3 TDs in four games, and his detractors give everyone but him credit.  I mean what does he have to do.  

 

Of his 12 catches, 11 have gone for 1st-Downs or TDs, with the 1st-Downs contributing to scoring drives, I think in every case.  Most teams would be happy to have a WR do that.  

 

He's on pace for 935 yards and 12 TDs, which by last season's standards would have put him at 24th for receiving yards and tied with Kelce for 2nd in receiving TDs.  24th!  2nd for TDs!  

 

But he's not good enough.  It's mindboggling.  

 

SMH  

 

 

it’s not hard to connect the dots- 

 

he’s had struggles

 

and often it feels like he’s producing in spite of himself not because of his skill. He’s not outrunning guys, he’s not agile enough to be a great route runner. He doesn’t tend to be the most physical getting the ball.
 

In a great offense it often seems he’s a beneficiary of the stress the unit puts on the defense instead of being a stressor himself. 
 

put another way- the production floor for a full time wr2 in this unit is pretty high even if you plug a WR4-5 into the role. In a big moment I don’t know that we ever see them scheme up gabe Davis as the target 

Edited October 3, 2023 by NoSaint

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, Mango said:

You are sort of just naming names without telling the whole story. They are good, and better than Davis, but you can't talk about value without talking about their cost when they won those games. Almost all of those guys were on cheap and/or rookie contracts. 

 

That's what I addressed in the last part of my post. I don't know if it's feasible to pay a true WR1 and WR2 at the same time. But irrespective of that it is hard to argue with the evidence that a very good and versatile #2 is seemingly a necessity for a Super Bowl contender. It's hard to figure out a solution to that problem in October. I hope Beane will try though.

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, eball said:

Damn skippy. The way we’ve had to white-knuckle these last three weeks is wearing me down…

 

Again not the point.  What did he do in week one (two catches, four targets)?

 

As the #2 stats should be better with Allen as the QB.  Regardless as I pointed out he is right at his 2022 #'s, which weren't great.  

[Mango]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

6-10 Targets only?????  Geez could you imaging how pissed any elite receiver would be with only 8/game?  Should be a minimum 10/gm.

 

As for Gabe, he has averaged 3 catches/game.  51 receptions for the year would have ranked him 75th in the league!!!!!

 

Need way more from him.

 

I know your heat says that is the way to win a championship but that isn't the case. 

Lets call "at least 10 targets per game" 12 for arguments sake. 12 targets per game would be 204 and the second most in NFL history. Even if you account for the extra game, 193 targets would be the 8th most targets in league history. Also not an attainable goal. 

Out of the top 25 most targeted receivers in a single season only one of them won a championship that year. Cooper Kupp in 2021.

 

I would prefer to have Diggs be "the guy" with 100-ish catches  on 150 targets and a ton of guys in the 30-50 catch range then force the ball to Diggs 204 times one guy with 60 catches and everybody else with 20. 

For reference, since 2000 there have only been 5 times a team has one the SB with a receiver in the top 5 for receptions, and only another 4 with a receiver in the top 10. 

[Big Blitz]

 

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, Mango said:

since 2000 there have only been 5 times a team has one the SB with a receiver in the top 5 for receptions

 

2000 is ancient history. So is pretty much every year before the latest generation of elite QBs. In 3 of the 4 seasons the Super Bowl winner has had a pass catcher in the top 8 of receptions.

 

2022 - Chiefs - Kelce #3

2021 - Rams - Kupp #1

2020 - Bucs - Evans #33

2019 - Chiefs - Kelce #8

 

These days there are too many elite QBs. An offense needs an edge somewhere else. In recent years that edge has been pass catchers, and to somewhat of a lesser extent the offensive line.

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I know your heat says that is the way to win a championship but that isn't the case. 

Lets call "at least 10 targets per game" 12 for arguments sake. 12 targets per game would be 204 and the second most in NFL history. Even if you account for the extra game, 193 targets would be the 8th most targets in league history. Also not an attainable goal. 

Out of the top 25 most targeted receivers in a single season only one of them won a championship that year. Cooper Kupp in 2021.

 

I would prefer to have Diggs be "the guy" with 100-ish catches  on 150 targets and a ton of guys in the 30-50 catch range then force the ball to Diggs 204 times one guy with 60 catches and everybody else with 20. 

For reference, since 2000 there have only been 5 times a team has one the SB with a receiver in the top 5 for receptions, and only another 4 with a receiver in the top 10. 

The top receivers are all about 9-10 and that better include Diggs.  And this is Josh Allen a the qb.

 

Quick stat 2022 Mahomes completed 265 passes to WR's, Burrow 242, Herbert 260, Hurts 231, Goff 233, Cousins 275, Brady 297 & Allen only 225. 

 

The Bills #1 weapon is Allen, use him. 

[AlfaBill]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Again, this is simply a dumb argument. His stats show extremely clearly that he's a #2. No, not a great #2, but it isn't even a question that he's a #2.

 

#3 WRs don't end up in the top 20 in TDs and the top 40 in yards, they just don't. And Gabe was that high last year and is higher so far this year.

Let me ask you this. Would you trust him to make a game changing catch? A last second TD for a SB win? I wouldn’t. 

[dave mcbride]

26 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

2000 is ancient history. So is pretty much every year before the latest generation of elite QBs. In 3 of the 4 seasons the Super Bowl winner has had a pass catcher in the top 8 of receptions.

 

2022 - Chiefs - Kelce #3

2021 - Rams - Kupp #1

2020 - Bucs - Evans #33

2019 - Chiefs - Kelce #8

 

These days there are too many elite QBs. An offense needs an edge somewhere else. In recent years that edge has been pass catchers, and to somewhat of a lesser extent the offensive line.

It's arguable -- and I'd in fact argue it -- that the 2018 Patriots had neither a #1 nor a #2 receiver. They had a slot receiver, an aging TE who had lost a step, a troubled former #1 who didn't last the season, and a bunch of jags. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2018.htm

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

Further upthread I posted the breakdown of the last couple cap implications of pass catchers. I was on my phone in bed so there was a little bit of wonky math. It is minimal. That is a very important part of the equation. Something to consider when you talk about the cap situation in KC is that Kelce is a TE and gets paid like a great TE, not a great receiver. It makes a difference.

 

Here is a quick summary with cap$ and cap% just because total cap dollars has some peaks and plateaus with COVID.

 

The Bills are in a good spot (this year) in terms of cap allocation. Upgrading Davis is a reasonable conversation. But not at any real cost. 

 

 

You are sort of just naming names without telling the whole story. They are good, and better than Davis, but you can't talk about value without talking about their cost when they won those games. Almost all of those guys were on cheap and/or rookie contracts. 

There is no paying a 1a/1b receiver while winning a championship. 

At some point the secondary outlet is about the QB spreading the ball around and putting the right athletes in the proper position to succeed. as much as it is about the guys playing the position.

That's pretty much the whole point of "we need to draft another WR high" angle that some folks, myself included, have been banging for about 2 years.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm a huge fan of Kincaid and I think he has a great future here. But I want our #2 to be someone that can be relied upon if a defense takes away Diggs. Not to the same caliber as Diggs obviously, just enough so that our offense isn't totally handicapped in those situations. I haven't seen anything from Kincaid so far that makes me think he can be that guy yet. Right now he is a role player, not someone we can funnel the offense through.

One other thing of note: the TEs have caught 24 balls this year, which puts them on pace for 102 receptions. In my long career as a Bills fan, the Bills' have never come close that reception production from that position. The closest I can recall was 73 catches in 1993.  So this is a very different Buffalo Bills squad in an important way. 

Edited October 3, 2023 by dave mcbride

[eball]

45 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again not the point.  What did he do in week one (two catches, four targets)?

 

As the #2 stats should be better with Allen as the QB.  Regardless as I pointed out he is right at his 2022 #'s, which weren't great.  

 

There are more weapons around him and the Bills are running the ball more.  He has scored in each of the last three games.

 

As others have noted, there is no need to have a "traditional" #1, #2, #3 target, but some fans can't get this notion out of their heads.  I haven't heard Gabe complain about his targets and Josh leads the league in completion percentage.  Good grief, they must fix this, and fast!  The #HateGabeDavis movement must continue!

 

 

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

It's arguable -- and I'd in fact argue it -- that the 2018 Patriots had neither a #1 nor a #2 receiver. They had a slot receiver, an aging TE who had lost a step, a troubled former #1 who didn't last the season, and a bunch of jags. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2018.htm

 

Yeah and I think that Patriots team today wouldn't come close to winning it all. That was the end of an era for the NFL where a strong running game and a good defense was enough to win a Super Bowl. Then in quick succession Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert all came onto the scene. The NFL collectively decided to let offensive lines hold. We're in a new era now. If you don't have the horses on offense, you're on the outside track.

 

And that Patriots team probably wouldn't have made it to the Super Bowl to begin with if Dee Ford hadn't jumped Offside. I know you can find those examples in every game, but that year was a good example of the transition I'm talking about. A young Mahomes with an elite offensive supporting cast almost knocked off a dynasty at the end of its run.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

One other thing of note: the TEs have caught 24 balls this year, which puts them on pace for 102 receptions. In my long career as a Bills fan, the Bills' have never come close that reception production from that position. The closest I can recall was 73 catches in 1993.  So this is a very different Buffalo Bills squad in an important way. 

Seeing as Kincaid is operating more as a big slot than a true in-line TE, it's not that unusual. Beasley and Knox have averaged over 102 receptions combined before. Hell, in 2021, they had 131 combined.

[Einstein's Dog]

36 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's what I addressed in the last part of my post. I don't know if it's feasible to pay a true WR1 and WR2 at the same time. But irrespective of that it is hard to argue with the evidence that a very good and versatile #2 is seemingly a necessity for a Super Bowl contender. It's hard to figure out a solution to that problem in October. I hope Beane will try though.

I think we are seeing a possible solution develop in front of our eyes.  Kincaid and Cook can be 2a/2b with Gabe and Knox being 4a/4b.

 

As for Beane trying for an in-season trade that took a big hit IMO with Tampa winning.  The Mike Evans hope just evaporated.

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah and I think that Patriots team today wouldn't come close to winning it all. That was the end of an era for the NFL where a strong running game and a good defense was enough to win a Super Bowl. Then in quick succession Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert all came onto the scene. The NFL collectively decided to let offensive lines hold. We're in a new era now. If you don't have the horses on offense, you're on the outside track.

 

And that Patriots team probably wouldn't have made it to the Super Bowl to begin with if Dee Ford hadn't jumped Offside. I know you can find those examples in every game, but that year was a good example of the transition I'm talking about. A young Mahomes with an elite offensive supporting cast almost knocked off a dynasty at the end of its run.

Yet ... they beat a red-hot Mahomes-led offense (#1 over all in points and yards) in the AFC championship game two weeks before. And on the road. Plus they had the ultimate trump card: Tom Brady. 

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Seeing as Kincaid is operating more as a big slot than a true in-line TE, it's not that unusual. Beasley and Knox have averaged over 102 receptions combined before. Hell, in 2021, they had 131 combined.

Kincaid actually does end up blocking a lot of time. Beasley wasn't doing that. Kincaid is kind of a tweener, but he's still an actual TE with traditional TE responsibilities.

Edited October 3, 2023 by dave mcbride

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

it’s not hard to connect the dots- 

 

he’s had struggles

 

and often it feels like he’s producing in spite of himself not because of his skill. He’s not outrunning guys, he’s not agile enough to be a great route runner. He doesn’t tend to be the most physical getting the ball.
 

In a great offense it often seems he’s a beneficiary of the stress the unit puts on the defense instead of being a stressor himself. 
 

put another way- the production floor for a full time wr2 in this unit is pretty high even if you plug a WR4-5 into the role. In a big moment I don’t know that we ever see them scheme up gabe Davis as the target 

 

OK, but how high of a bar is it?  

 

I already posted the teams that put up dual 1,000-yard WRs and it was hardly impressive.  

 

I'll post it again.  So which of the "#2" WRs below does everyone believe he should be mimicking if he's "any good?"  

 

I'll take 900/10 or so over any second-best on that entire list any day of the week.  

 

A 1st-Down is a 1st-Down and a TD is a TD, I don't care if Davis walks downfield on his hands with no pants on and catches the ball in his buttcheeks.  

 

It appears to me that his detractors are obsessed with the way that he does it rather than simply with the results.  

 

OK, and the question is open to all, but which of the "second-best" WRs  below would we be happier with?  ... and why?  

 

... and every single one had decent QBs throwing the ball to them.  Burrow, Tua, Hurts, Smith, and Brady.  

 

 

Quote

 

BTW, I just looked, only five teams had two 1,000-yard WRs last season.

 

Cincy:

Chase: 1,046/9

Higgins: 1,029/7

 

Miami:

Hill: 1,710/7

Waddle: 1,356/8

 

Philly:

Brown: 1,496/11

Smith: 1,196/7

 

Seattle:

Metcalf: 1,048/6

Lockett: 1,033/9 

... not sure which one's "second best" there.  Probably Metcalf, he's been the least consistent of the two.  

 

Tampa:

Evans: 1,124/6

Godwin: 1,023/3

 

No team had two WRs with double-digit TDs.

 

If you count TEs, SF is the only team that had two receivers (WR/TE) with 8 or more TDs.

 

I'm not sure that peoples' outlook here is rational.

 

KC's second-leading WR was Smith-Shuster last season, with 933 yards and 3 TDs.

 

Davis is on pace for 935 and 12 TDs. I have absolutely zero idea how that would not be enormously significant if he did it.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by PBF81

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Yet ... they beat a red-hot Mahomes-led offense (#1 over all in points and yards) in the AFC championship game two weeks before. And on the road. Plus they had the ultimate trump card: Tom Brady. 

Kincaid actually does end up blocking a lot of time. Beasley wasn't doing that. Kincaid is kind of a tweener, but he's still an actual TE with traditional TE responsibilities.

I'll have to look and see if anyone has numerical breakdown, but to my eye he's still out wide a lot more than in-line.

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

OK, but how high of a bar is it?  

 

I already posted the teams that put up dual 1,000-yard WRs and it was hardly impressive.  

 

I'll post it again.  So which of the "#2" WRs below does everyone believe he should be mimicking if he's "any good?"  

 

I'll take 900/10 or so over any second-best on that entire list any day of the week.  

 

A 1st-Down is a 1st-Down and a TD is a TD, I don't care if Davis walks downfield on his hands with no pants on and catches the ball in his buttcheeks.  

 

It appears to me that his detractors are obsessed with the way that he does it rather than simply with the results.  

 

OK, and the question is open to all, but which of the "second-best" WRs  below would we be happier with?  ... and why?  

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would be happier with Devonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle,  Chris Godwin. Probably not Lockett because he's a thousand years old.

 

Mostly because I think they are all better players playing with worse QB's.

[Billsfan1972]

20 minutes ago, eball said:

 

There are more weapons around him and the Bills are running the ball more.  He has scored in each of the last three games.

 

As others have noted, there is no need to have a "traditional" #1, #2, #3 target, but some fans can't get this notion out of their heads.  I haven't heard Gabe complain about his targets and Josh leads the league in completion percentage.  Good grief, they must fix this, and fast!  The #HateGabeDavis movement must continue!

 

 

These are simply observations.  Gabe is great when the Bills win by 20-40 points.  When the chips are down and the game is in doubt, is Gabe a good # 2 who will make that big/tough reception?

 

I asked the question last year that outside Diggs, how many tough catches do the Bills receivers make.

 

Waiting for that first contested grab on a long pass (yea yea, Gabe vs. Pitt last year is the only one I remember ever).

[Mango]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's what I addressed in the last part of my post. I don't know if it's feasible to pay a true WR1 and WR2 at the same time. But irrespective of that it is hard to argue with the evidence that a very good and versatile #2 is seemingly a necessity for a Super Bowl contender. It's hard to figure out a solution to that problem in October. I hope Beane will try though.

I don't think we are too far apart here. Yes personnel has been part of the issue, Davis included. But under Daboll and Dorsey (year one) we have sucked at spreading the ball out and that has made life a lot more difficult for Diggs, Davis, our RB's, and the OL. I don't think it is a coincidence we are much more equitable in the passing game and things have gotten easier for everybody. It isn't the only reason, but it plays a big part. 

 

One hand washes the other here. Yes Davis needs to be better (catch more balls). But he has shown the ability to take over games here and there. In the current version of this offense he has been pretty decent this year.

 

He is currently on pace for 51/934. That is pretty good chunk yardage. I would like to see him a little closer to ~65 maybe and I would be OK with 850 yards at that rate. But honestly if Diggs is around 105, Davis 65, Kincade 50, and 30-40 from Knox, Cook, Harty/Sherfield, we are in a pretty great spot going forward. That sort of split should always be the goal. I think that has been how a good portion of the top teams are spreading the ball around.

 

There have only been 4 SB winners with WR who caught more than 100 passes in a season. 

Kelce (22), Cup (21) both had historical seasons (literally), Michael Thomas (2015), and Troy Brown (01). 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Davis improve his numbers on his contract year.  It's what athletes do. The bag is the motivation.  Whether we re-sign him or not remains to be seen. But selfishly I want to see Gabe excel for the sake of a championship. 

[Mango]

 

48 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That's pretty much the whole point of "we need to draft another WR high" angle that some folks, myself included, have been banging for about 2 years.

Right, in other posts in this thread I have mentioned a big part of way I am approaching the Davis conversation is the regular threads the last 2-3 years of drafting/signing Hopkins, OBJ, Adams, etc. the last few years. I don't agree with that aspect. So I guess I am arguing a history of posts rather than this point as a whole. 

 

Davis has drop issues. But I also think the style of offense we have played the last few years leading to 2023 has been so Allen/Diggs focused it has made it difficult for our RBs, OL, and other WR. I don't think it is a coincidence that we are doing a better job of spreading the ball out and everybody looks better. Certainly some of it is personnel but some of it is Josh and Dorsey both being better too. 

 

Those guys named are better/have had better production but a lot of them didn't produce to expectations once given veteran contracts with other teams. I think it is a complicated formula and a lot of moving parts to make it all work. 

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

14 minutes ago, Mango said:

He is currently on pace for 51/934. That is pretty good chunk yardage. I would like to see him a little closer to ~65 maybe and I would be OK with 850 yards at that rate. But honestly if Diggs is around 105, Davis 65, Kincade 50, and 30-40 from Knox, Cook, Harty/Sherfield, we are in a pretty great spot going forward. That sort of split should always be the goal. I think that has been how a good portion of the top teams are spreading the ball around.

 

I think you are seriously understating Cook.  Singletary had 38 receptions last year and Cook is better at catching and more explosive once he has it.  Cook should be getting around 5 targets a game which will help take off some of the full bore defensive rush at Josh.

 

Also Dawson had 68 targets and 48 receptions last year, and I would expect similar production this year.  Kincaid shouldn't eat into it, Kincaid will be getting McK.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

 

Right, in other posts in this thread I have mentioned a big part of way I am approaching the Davis conversation is the regular threads the last 2-3 years of drafting/signing Hopkins, OBJ, Adams, etc. the last few years. I don't agree with that aspect. So I guess I am arguing a history of posts rather than this point as a whole. 

 

Davis has drop issues. But I also think the style of offense we have played the last few years leading to 2023 has been so Allen/Diggs focused it has made it difficult for our RBs, OL, and other WR. I don't think it is a coincidence that we are doing a better job of spreading the ball out and everybody looks better. Certainly some of it is personnel but some of it is Josh and Dorsey both being better too. 

 

Those guys named are better/have had better production but a lot of them didn't produce to expectations once given veteran contracts with other teams. I think it is a complicated formula and a lot of moving parts to make it all work. 

 

 

I think you have cause and effect backwards in regards to the offense becoming more Diggs focused. That’s the effect of not having enough talent elsewhere. 
 

The Bills have been bargain shopping for receiving talent to put next to Diggs for years. It’s not a coincidence that Allen and the offenses best year was 2020, where we had the best receiving weapons, and the best OL of Allen’s career. Gabe Davis was WR4 in that offense!

 

Then, they went back to the bargain bin for Sanders while hoping Davis made strides and hoping Cole Beasley would stave off Father Time (he didn’t). Worse WR’s, worse result. 
 

Then, they promoted Gabe to undisputed WR2 and expected Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder or a rookie 5th round WR to contribute heavily to the slot WR position. Worse WR’s, worse result. It got so bad that we brought back Cole and John Brown from pseudoretirement. 
 

Folks wanting Evans or Hopkins comes from a desire to upgrade the boundary WR position which this team has failed to do consistently since 2020. If you aren’t gonna draft ‘em, you can at least sign them. And the benefit of the old dudes is at least potential savings on the backend compared to paying a young player. 
 

My personal philosophy would be to operate like the Steelers did for the second half of Big Ben’s career. A day 2 WR once or twice every two years and let ‘em walk. Big Ben may not have been as good as the other elite QB’s of his era, but he had a stable of weapons constantly (without them costing too much cap wise).
 

We are at a point where we:

 

1. won’t pay Gabe (reasonably so)

 

2. will be relying on a rookie WR or a bargain bin player as our WR2 next year.

 

That seems the exact OPPOSITE approach I would take to maximizing our window with Josh’s prime. 

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think you have cause and effect backwards in regards to the offense becoming more Diggs focused. That’s the effect of not having enough talent elsewhere. 
 

The Bills have been bargain shopping for receiving talent to put next to Diggs for years. It’s not a coincidence that Allen and the offenses best year was 2020, where we had the best receiving weapons, and the best OL of Allen’s career. Gabe Davis was WR4 in that offense!

 

Then, they went back to the bargain bin for Sanders while hoping Davis made strides and hoping Cole Beasley would stave off Father Time (he didn’t). Worse WR’s, worse result. 
 

Then, they promoted Gabe to undisputed WR2 and expected Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder or a rookie 5th round WR to contribute heavily to the slot WR position. Worse WR’s, worse result. It got so bad that we brought back Cole and John Brown from pseudoretirement. 
 

Folks wanting Evans or Hopkins comes from a desire to upgrade the boundary WR position which this team has failed to do consistently since 2020. If you aren’t gonna draft ‘em, you can at least sign them. And the benefit of the old dudes is at least potential savings on the backend compared to paying a young player. 
 

My personal philosophy would be to operate like the Steelers did for the second half of Big Ben’s career. A day 2 WR once or twice every two years and let ‘em walk. Big Ben may not have been as good as the other elite QB’s of his era, but he had a stable of weapons constantly (without them costing too much cap wise).
 

We are at a point where we:

 

1. won’t pay Gabe (reasonably so)

 

2. will be relying on a rookie WR or a bargain bin player as our WR2 next year.

 

That seems the exact OPPOSITE approach I would take to maximizing our window with Josh’s prime. 

 

I think there is some chicken and the egg. And there it is always a little bit of both. 

That said, the most recent SB teams have been bargain hunting from receivers. I posted this up thread because a poster mentioned "the last 6 Super Bowls". But outside of Watkins with Mahomes on a rookie contract, nobody has a major cap hit for a receiver in a SB year. 
 

 

 

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I'll have to look and see if anyone has numerical breakdown, but to my eye he's still out wide a lot more than in-line.

I would be happier with Devonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle,  Chris Godwin. Probably not Lockett because he's a thousand years old.

 

Mostly because I think they are all better players playing with worse QB's.

 

Well, OK, I can see the reason there anyway, but I would disagree that Higgins, Godwin, or Waddle are notably better.   They're definitely different types of WRs, which jarred something else loose in terms of this discussion.  

 

It seems that those dissatisfied with Davis are more dissatisfied with the type of WR that he is in a "#2 role," which I discount.  To me the "role" doesn't matter, it's a title, it's the accomplishments that matter.  But if that's the case, we have different roles of WRs on the team, then why doesn't Dorsey utilize them more?   Kincaid, Harty, Sherfield, Shakir?  Sounds like a Dorsey/utilization issue then.  I mean Beane & McD picked him in the draft.  They knew what kind of WR he was.  It was apparent.  

 

Otherwise, Waddle was a 6th overall pick.  

Godwin a 3rd-rounder. 

Higgins the 1st pick in round 2, 33rd overall.  

Smith a 10th overall pick.  

 

Davis in his first three seasons, at the ages of 21, 22, and 23, posted 20 TDs and 71 1st-Downs on 118 catches, averaging 16.8 YPR, and for a TD/1D conversion percentage of 77%. 

Waddle, a 6th overall pick and 2nd WR off the board, in his first two seasons at the ages of 23 & 24, posted 14 TDs and 105 1st-Downs on 179 catches, averaging 13.2 YPR, and for a TD/1D conversion percentage of 66%. 

Higgins in his first three seasons, also at the ages of 21, 22, and 23, posted 19 TDs and 133 1st-Downs on 215 catches, averaging 14.1 YPR, and for a TD/1D conversion percentage of 71%.  

Godwin, in his last three seasons with Brady throwing at the ages of 24, 25, and 26, posted 15 TDs and 136 1st-Downs on 267 catches, averaging 11.1 YPR, and for a TD/1D conversion percentage of 57%.  

Smith, a 10th overall pick and 3rd WR off the board after Waddle, in his first three seasons at the ages of 23, 24, and 25, posted 14 TDs and 95 1st-Downs on 181 catches, averaging 13.2 YPR, and for a TD/1D conversion percentage of 60%.  

 

Either way, keep in mind that those are the best in the league for second-best WRs, and it's far from a slam-dunk here.  

 

Again, everyone's saying that Davis sucks, but he has more TDs over the past three seasons than all of them.  

 

He is a different WR type than the rest, but that's perhaps why he does well.  Allen's strong suit is deep throws.  Are we to assume that yet another slotty-type WR or one like Diggs in essence, is a better fit here?  Who would go deep then like Davis does.  (rhetorical)  

 

And BTW, I'm far from suggesting that it's perfect here, I've been hard on the staff for not fully utilizing the shorter higher-percentage passing game, more than anyone maybe, but therein also lies the possibility that the staff is thinking "deep ball" more often than it should as well, thereby creating what many see as an issue here.  I definitely don't discount that, but having said that, it then becomes a coaching issue, not a WR issue.  

 

IMO this team's offense has more than almost all other teams at this point, and all the receiving talent that any decent QB should need to produce a passing offense that would rival a franchise best.  

 

Otherwise, the solution would seem to be drafting a WR in the top-half of round 1, or paying through the nose for a marginal increase in performance at best.  

 

That doesn't appear to be an optimal use of cap/draft resources to me, particularly considering the whiffs of players in round 1.  i.e., nothing's guaranteed, and the fable of the dog looking into the water and barking at the reflection because the other dog has a bigger bone (keep the wise-cracks to yourself :D) and then loses his own bone as if falls into the water.  

 

I'll try one last analogy, ... in the same way that Davis won't be running many short outs or OTM short routes, so too, other WRs don't have his size and athletic ability to matchup downfield on the deeper throws.  So it really is a be careful what you wish for, you may get it kinda scenario.  

 

I think we've killed this topic.  Good last bout though.   

 

He's dead Jim!  

 

 

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

That said, the most recent SB teams have been bargain hunting from receivers. I posted this up thread because a poster mentioned "the last 6 Super Bowls". But outside of Watkins with Mahomes on a rookie contract, nobody has a major cap hit for a receiver in a SB year. 

 

Here's the thing about that, we've struggled in the playoffs, but our struggles have least of all involved Davis.  

 

Our biggest issues come playoff time are ... 

 

Coaching Decisions & Play-Calling 

Poor Defense 

 

In the three games that ended our seasons over the past three postseasons, we've allowed in regulation, 38, 36, and 27, an average of just under 34 PPG.  

 

In contrast, last season Cincy's 6th-ranked defense allowed 17 and 10 in their two playoff games prior to the one with us. 

In '21, KC and their 8th ranked D allowed 21 and 24 in their other two playoff games.  

In '20, KC and their 10th ranked D allowed 17 in their other playoff game other than allowing 31 to Brady's Bucs in the SB.  

 

Again, we averaged 34 PA in our losses, all three games more than any of those with a mere one exception, the Chiefs vs. Brady in the SB, and even there, only by 4 points over our best in losses.  

 

Davis or a "better #2 WR" is not at the top of our list of needs as to why we're not advancing further in the playoffs.  

 

 

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah and I think that Patriots team today wouldn't come close to winning it all. That was the end of an era for the NFL where a strong running game and a good defense was enough to win a Super Bowl. Then in quick succession Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert all came onto the scene. The NFL collectively decided to let offensive lines hold. We're in a new era now. If you don't have the horses on offense, you're on the outside track.

 

And that Patriots team probably wouldn't have made it to the Super Bowl to begin with if Dee Ford hadn't jumped Offside. I know you can find those examples in every game, but that year was a good example of the transition I'm talking about. A young Mahomes with an elite offensive supporting cast almost knocked off a dynasty at the end of its run.

 

Check out the stat line in all 3 of the Chiefs Super Bowls. They were incredibly balanced in their two victories. While Mahomes threw 49 times in their loss to the Bucs, yet only managed to score 9 points. 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I think there is some chicken and the egg. And there it is always a little bit of both. 

That said, the most recent SB teams have been bargain hunting from receivers. I posted this up thread because a poster mentioned "the last 6 Super Bowls". But outside of Watkins with Mahomes on a rookie contract, nobody has a major cap hit for a receiver in a SB year. 
 

 

 

Buddy, they had low cap hits for lots of different reason. Either rookie contracts or salary cap magic. 
 

The Cooper Kupp example, while correct that his listed cap hit was low, is right for the wrong reasons. He was on a 3 year $47M deal at the time. 

 

We have drafted 1 non-RB skill position player in first two rounds since 2020. That’s how you fail to limit costs in the receiving groups.

[PBF81]

23 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think you have cause and effect backwards in regards to the offense becoming more Diggs focused. That’s the effect of not having enough talent elsewhere. 
 

The Bills have been bargain shopping for receiving talent to put next to Diggs for years. It’s not a coincidence that Allen and the offenses best year was 2020, where we had the best receiving weapons, and the best OL of Allen’s career. Gabe Davis was WR4 in that offense!

 

Your premise is somewhat valid, ... your first line there.  

 

I would strongly argue that we had our best receiving weapons in '20, IMO this season is notably better if Kincaid is what everyone thinks he is.  

 

The difference is that Allen leaned on Beasley much more than he has on any other short-yardage WR, largely because Beasley had the talent of being able to find the soft spots in coverage.  

 

Kincaid is supposed to be doing that now.  Davis was a rookie that season, which explains why he might be viewed as WR4.   Brown was little more than a known role-player, and let's be honest, with a skillset not much different than Davis', with the primary difference being that Brown was 5'11"/180 to Davis' 6'2"/210.  

 

Davis was second among WRs, even in that rookie season, for snap counts at 73%.  Diggs was 89%, Beasley 63%, Brown 42%, McKenzie 25%.  

 

That puts Davis as the "other wide WR" with Beasley in the slot.  

 

Getting back to your premise, see my post above, but this all seems to fit the understanding of McBeane, namely that Josh is a strong-armed QB and needs a solid target downfield that is capable of making those big-plays that he tries to make.  

 

Again, that could also be why Davis doesn't post bigger numbers than he has, because think about it, everyone complains that Allen goes deep instead of taking what the D gives us, well great, but that means of Allen's average of 36 attempts/game over the past three seasons, how many are going to be deep.  

 

If half of those are deeper balls, largely to Davis more often, is that really what helps the team the most?  At the same time, when Davis goes deep, opposing Ss and DBs need to respect that or Allen will go deep.  

 

 

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, OK, I can see the reason there anyway, but I would disagree that Higgins, Godwin, or Waddle are notably better.   They're definitely different types of WRs, which jarred something else loose in terms of this discussion.  

 

It seems that those dissatisfied with Davis are more dissatisfied with the type of WR that he is in a "#2 role," which I discount.  To me the "role" doesn't matter, it's a title, it's the accomplishments that matter.  But if that's the case, we have different roles of WRs on the team, then why doesn't Dorsey utilize them more?   Kincaid, Harty, Sherfield, Shakir?  Sounds like a Dorsey/utilization issue then.  I mean Beane & McD picked him in the draft.  They knew what kind of WR he was.  It was apparent.  

 

Otherwise, Waddle was a 6th overall pick.  

Godwin a 3rd-rounder. 

Higgins the 1st pick in round 2, 33rd overall.  

Smith a 10th overall pick.  

 

Davis in his first three seasons, at the ages of 21, 22, and 23, posted 20 TDs and 71 1st-Downs on 118 catches, averaging 16.8 YPR, and for a TD/1D conversion percentage of 77%. 

Waddle, a 6th overall pick and 2nd WR off the board, in his first two seasons at the ages of 23 & 24, posted 14 TDs and 105 1st-Downs on 179 catches, averaging 13.2 YPR, and for a TD/1D conversion percentage of 66%. 

Higgins in his first three seasons, also at the ages of 21, 22, and 23, posted 19 TDs and 133 1st-Downs on 215 catches, averaging 14.1 YPR, and for a TD/1D conversion percentage of 71%.  

Godwin, in his last three seasons with Brady throwing at the ages of 24, 25, and 26, posted 15 TDs and 136 1st-Downs on 267 catches, averaging 11.1 YPR, and for a TD/1D conversion percentage of 57%.  

Smith, a 10th overall pick and 3rd WR off the board after Waddle, in his first three seasons at the ages of 23, 24, and 25, posted 14 TDs and 95 1st-Downs on 181 catches, averaging 13.2 YPR, and for a TD/1D conversion percentage of 60%.  

 

Either way, keep in mind that those are the best in the league for second-best WRs, and it's far from a slam-dunk here.  

 

Agai everyone's saying that Davis sucks, but he has more TDs over the past three seasons than all of them.  

s+-

He is a different WR type than the rest, but that's perhaps why he does well.  Allen's strong suit is deep throws.  Are we to assume that yet another slotty-type WR or one like Diggs in essence, is a better fit here?  Who would go deep then like Davis does.  (rhetorical)  

 

And BTW, I'm far from suggesting that it's perfect here, I've been hard on the staff for not fully utilizing the shorter higher-percentage passing game, more than anyone maybe, but therein also lies the possibility that the staff is thinking "deep ball" more often than it should as well, thereby creating what many see as an issue here.  I definitely don't discount that, but having said that, it then becomes a coaching issue, not a WR issue.  

 

IMO this team's offense has more than almost all other teams at this point, and all the receiving talent that any decent QB should need to produce a passing offense that would rival a franchise best.  

 

Otherwise, the solution would seem to be drafting a WR in the top-half of round 1, or paying through the nose for a marginal increase in performance at best.  

 

That doesn't appear to be an optimal use of cap/draft resources to me, particularly considering the whiffs of players in round 1.  i.e., nothing's guaranteed, and the fable of the dog looking into the water and barking at the reflection because the other dog has a bigger bone (keep the wise-cracks to yourself :D) and then loses his own bone as if falls into the water.  

 

I'll try one last analogy, ... in the same way that Davis won't be running many short outs or OTM short routes, so too, other WRs don't have his size and athletic ability to matchup downfield on the deeper throws.  So it really is a be careful what you wish for, you may get it kinda scenario.  

 

I think we've killed this topic.  Good last bout though.   

 

He's dead Jim!  

 

 

The problem when quantifying the marginal improvement of those WR's in compared to Gabe, is that the team success of most of those teams has been higher than the Bills. So that's where the link is drawn. It's not hard to see why folks say "the Bucs/Eagles/Bengals weapons were better so that's why they have been better."

 

I notice a lot of your stats are averages and not totals, in particular yardage. Higgins has almost 1k more yards that Davis in his career, both through 4 years. Jaylen Waddle has more yards than Davis in 1 year less.  That's not exactly a marginal difference imo.

[Mango]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Buddy, they had low cap hits for lots of different reason. Either rookie contracts or salary cap magic. 
 

The Cooper Kupp example, while correct that his listed cap hit was low, is right for the wrong reasons. He was on a 3 year $47M deal at the time. 

 

We have drafted 1 non-RB skill position player in first two rounds since 2020. That’s how you fail to limit costs in the receiving groups.

 

I'm not your buddy, pal!

I understand that completely. But it doesn't change the fact that when the bill comes due paying Kupp the remainder of his deal costs the team in other places. There is a reason teams win championships when guys like Kupp or Evans have low cap hits and they lose them when they take a greater percentage of allocated cap dollars. The Rams are a great example of that. They have sucked since they won a championship and the bill came due.