Bills Offense - Why it Frustrates- Why Total Productivity is Not Likely to Improve (there will Math)

[Don Otreply]

The dissatisfaction stems from two things, 1) the defense falling down in the post season, which stemmed from Fraziers inability to adjust when his scheme has been figured out, 2) our offensive line getting dominated far two frequently. Both things have been addressed, fingers crossed 🤞 going forward. 

[LVGrown]

Anyone know if their is a stat for drive killing penalties?

 

One of my biggest frustrations on the offense last year was their inability to overcome penalties. Not only did it typically call back a first down play it seemed to always lead to a punt or FG. 

 

Now I'm curious if it was actually an issue or something that I for whatever reason latched onto.

[Shaw66]

26 minutes ago, Chaos said:

He is ranked 13th ALL-TIME in fourth quarter comebacks, in only a little over five seasons as a starter. 

No.  He ranks 103.

 

He's 13th among active QBs.

 

[Nextmanup]

27 minutes ago, Chaos said:

It seems like the team puts Allen in this position far more often than other QBs.  He is ranked 13th ALL-TIME in fourth quarter comebacks, in only a little over five seasons as a starter. 

Allen is inconsistent.  It's who he is.  It's not going to change.  His good far outweighs the bad, so you take the whole package and move forward as best you can.

 

 

 

 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I'd go 50/50 personally

 

That INT was brutal but the Jefferson catch over Lewis and and Cook TD were two inexcusable defensive lapses

 

I mean the Cook run was the second longest TD run in the league all season lol

And “the fumble”. That’s on Allen and Morse imo

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

And “the fumble”. That’s on Allen and Morse imo

Yes I was saying there's blame to be shared, I wouldn't say that loss was all on Allen was my point

[Chaos]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

He's 13th among active QBs.

thank you for the correction.  The list I used had Brady as number 1.  I thought he was inactive. 

Edited July 15, 2023 by Chaos

[PrimeTime101]

I have to laugh at this because We all feel JA is a top 3 QB in this league. There is no doubting it.. So what we arguing about? Thinking he CAN be the best QB in the league period. I do not know if JA has that ceiling still or not but its entertaining!

 

[GunnerBill]

55 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

How many games last year did they win in those scenarios? I'll hang up and listen. Because it was more than 3.

 

I can only remember Detroit but feel free to share.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I can only remember Detroit but feel free to share.

Dolphins and Ravens too iirc

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Dolphins and Ravens too iirc

 

Yea both of those ring true. Dolphins defo was and I think you are right on Ravens too.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea but the NFL is a parity league. There will be 5 or 6 games every year where it comes down to the end. There were years Brady had to pull late game heroics even against bad teams. Of course everyone knows the Bills made mistakes earlier in some of those losses. But they had the ball with a realistic chance to win in all 3 and didn't get it done. They have to be better in those sceanrios.

Good point. Those three losses do stand out.
 

Could have been worse though. They did have some success if I recall correctly. Off the top of my head the offense was very good in late game pressure moments against the Chiefs, Dolphins (game 2) and I think Ravens last season. 
 

That is batting .500 in those circumstances which would be the bare minimum you would want out of the offense. 
 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea both of those ring true. Dolphins defo was and I think you are right on Ravens too.

 

Chiefs.

 

Thanks to Lil' Dummy keeping the score close.

[hjnick]

Chaos,

 

Interesting analysis, but for your breakdown graphic, I do not understand why NYG, MIN, and DAL are not higher up in your graphic.  I would assume one of the columns would show an easy linear breakdown of the field that was filtered on to make the list.

 

Taking in all of your data, I've come up with a different conclusion on some things.  While the RZ efficiency of the Bills offense is average, what is the real cause.

 

Before that though, I'd like to point out 2 things:

1) Based on your data, I would assume that Buffalo is the #1 offense to score OUTSIDE of the Redzone?  Is this true? Or at least close to the top in that stats bc the points have to come from somewhere.

2) Josh Allen's arm makes 75 yards out of a potential 110 yards available to him on every play (of course depending on where we are on the field).  His arm strength makes every defense honor the WHOLE field.  There are not that many QBs that can do that.  Josh Allen also have the stats to prove he has zero problems throwing a bomb on a 3rd and 2 play.

 

Josh Allen's propensity to go for the homerun ball has opened up the field for the team to move down the field to the opponents 25 yard line easier than other teams.

 

Now, once we are in the RZ things change, why?  IMO, it is because the Bills do not have a good enough RUNNING game to complement JAllen's throwing ability.

 

Look at the teams at the top in points per RZ drive, in order (top 10), DAL PHIL KC TEN NYG DET MIN CIN CAR LAR...  You can make a case that 8-9 out of 10 have good running games.  The Bills do NOT.

 

Unless we improve our running attack in the RZ (which I hope we do with 12 personnel (2 TE's, did I say that right. ) ), the Bills will continue to struggle in the RZ.

 

The Bills need to start taking some of the burden off of JAllen.  He needs an adequate running game and that will improve the RZ immensely.                

[LABILLBACKER]

48 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

The dissatisfaction stems from two things, 1) the defense falling down in the post season, which stemmed from Fraziers inability to adjust when his scheme has been figured out, 2) our offensive line getting dominated far two frequently. Both things have been addressed, fingers crossed 🤞 going forward. 

So true....it will always boil down to our trenches. Can our 22nd ranked OL (PFF) protect Josh better, keeping him from reverting to hero ball?  Can our DL ever get to the top 8 qbs we face this year?  

[Don Otreply]

15 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

So true....it will always boil down to our trenches. Can our 22nd ranked OL (PFF) protect Josh better, keeping him from reverting to hero ball?  Can our DL ever get to the top 8 qbs we face this year?  

I’m gonna work with the concept that good things are gonna happen, 🤞

[machine gun kelly]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I have hopes for this kid but in the redzone where space is compressed and being able to diagnose leverage quickly against NFL pros...that's not where I'm expecting him to really shine tbh

It seems some real Bills fans (not the occasional troll pretending to be a Bills fan) have second guessed so much in every aspect, and some questions are valid.

 

It’s the lack of confidence by real fans not seeing several areas.  12 personnel will help significantly in the red zone so maybe not a ton of yards like a Kelce, but a lot of TD’s from DK2.  
 

The other less talked about improvement was in 21 personnel where we have explosiveness with Cook and Hines as a backup, bangers in Harris and Murray especially Murray in December and beyond.  We’ve needed this personnel flexibility since McBeane took over.  Daboll certainly was creative, but Dorsey is now in year 2 and he can be more creative with this talent.

 

Would I love D Hop to really seal the deal, sure.  But we just don’t know in the slot position battle who will end up as the starter?  Shakir, Harty, or Sherfield.

 

Im wondering how aggressive as Rivera said of McD will get with this defense.  What will the edge rush look like once Von return with now 3rd yr Groot, and Floyd.  In obvious passing downs will Groot pivot to the inside and all three on the field.  That’s an exciting thought.

 

This board has had an excess of doom and gloom since Cincy.

 

Im not overconfident, but I’m interested to see how it shakes out.  Can we get back to our healthy ways and prior to 2022, we did have a solid red zone offense.  Much of it had to do with turn styles of Guards last year.  Those guys absolutely sucked.  I will remain hopeful Mt. O Cyrus and McGovern could be highly impactful overall on the offense.  A top end line will affect all of the weapons.  I watched first hand what O Cyrus did at UF.  He’s a fantastic talent.

 

Lastly fingers crossed although I’m down to maybe 7% confident we’ll actually land D Hop.

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

The dissatisfaction stems from two things, 1) the defense falling down in the post season, which stemmed from Fraziers inability to adjust when his scheme has been figured out, 2) our offensive line getting dominated far two frequently. Both things have been addressed, fingers crossed 🤞 going forward. 

This thread is specifically about the offense. Your post is off point. 

25 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

It seems some real Bills fans (not the occasional troll pretending to be a Bills fan) have second guessed so much in every aspect, and some questions are valid.

 

It’s the lack of confidence by real fans not seeing several areas.  12 personnel will help significantly in the red zone so maybe not a ton of yards like a Kelce, but a lot of TD’s from DK2.  
 

The other less talked about improvement was in 21 personnel where we have explosiveness with Cook and Hines as a backup, bangers in Harris and Murray especially Murray in December and beyond.  We’ve needed this personnel flexibility since McBeane took over.  Daboll certainly was creative, but Dorsey is now in year 2 and he can be more creative with this talent.

 

Would I love D Hop to really seal the deal, sure.  But we just don’t know in the slot position battle who will end up as the starter?  Shakir, Harty, or Sherfield.

 

Im wondering how aggressive as Rivera said of McD will get with this defense.  What will the edge rush look like once Von return with now 3rd yr Groot, and Floyd.  In obvious passing downs will Groot pivot to the inside and all three on the field.  That’s an exciting thought.

 

This board has had an excess of doom and gloom since Cincy.

 

Im not overconfident, but I’m interested to see how it shakes out.  Can we get back to our healthy ways and prior to 2022, we did have a solid red zone offense.  Much of it had to do with turn styles of Guards last year.  Those guys absolutely sucked.  I will remain hopeful Mt. O Cyrus and McGovern could be highly impactful overall on the offense.  A top end line will affect all of the weapons.  I watched first hand what O Cyrus did at UF.  He’s a fantastic talent.

 

Lastly fingers crossed although I’m down to maybe 7% confident we’ll actually land D Hop.

prior to 2022 we also failed in the playoffs.  I don’t know any Bills fans who are very worried about the 2023 regular season. 

[billsbackto81]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Linked to the psychological closing issue is the number if games the Bills lose by 1 score where our offense has the ball last. All 3 defeats last year in the regular season fall into that category and over the last 2 years it has been a recurring issue. That shouldn't be happening with an elite QB and it may well be partly mental.

 

However, I think both - redzone and end of game - are the situations where the pressure rachets up on our pass protection and it invariably has failed.

I can also point out 3 games off the top of my head (KC, Detroit and Miami) where he won on his last offensive possession of the game. Can't win them all.

 

I do agree that the RZ turnovers are a concern considering how incredible he was at avoiding them his previous seasons.

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

I can also point out 3 games off the top of my head (KC, Detroit and Miami) where he won on his last offensive possession of the game. Can't win them all.

 

I do agree that the RZ turnovers are a concern considering how incredible he was at avoiding them his previous seasons.

 

Yea fair. I wasn't doing scrutiny I was just doing from memory and maybe the losses are easier remembered. But I accept the O won games in that scenario too. They didn't jump as easy to mind.