Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) The deeper into the draft we go, any simulations/mocks/projections/guesses become more and more just guesses. I have had reasonable success in simulating the first three rounds. I have given some analysis explaining each of those picks. For this round I am going to give my projected Bills board for the next 65 picks with an explanation of the methodology I have been using. My official guess is "the highest ranked player on the board available when the Bills pick at 137". However player availability and board rank are independent variables, and based on my estimate of who will be available, I expect the player will come from among this smaller list: DT Karl Brooks DT Moro Ojomo WR Charlie Jones DT Cameron Young .Here is a link to a google sheet, showing the whole list of 65 in this format. In rounds 1 and 2 I did a very detailed analysis of likely availabilty player by player. In this round, I grouped the players into tiers (because I got lazy) for evaluating likely availability. In all rounds I calculated a metric I call 2023 impact potential, and then calculate the RANK of this metric. So in this round, the max rank was 65, because I evaluated 65 players. If a player scored at the top of the list for each of my values rolling into "2023 impact potential" they would have scored 65. Of the remaining players 2 guys jump off the page as having the greatest potential to have impact on 2023, D. Jones, and Kelee Ringo. This seems to pass any eye test as logical as well. What I think is a bit different about my 2023 Impact potential calculation is that it completely disregards development potential and the future. The top teams have no interest in "developing" talent in my estimation. The Bills are one of the top teams that as moved past that point. For example, Someone will draft Andrew Vorhees in this draft, maybe in the fourth round. Due to his ACL injury, I rank him as zero potential to impact 2023, and as such he is at the bottom of my list of these 65 players. D. Jones could be a total bust. He also could be could be the answer to the Spencer Brown problem at RT, the Bills current weakest link on offense. I personally would be rolling the dice and trying to trade with the bears to get him. But I learned from someone yesterday, Beane is boycotting the Big Ten. So probably not likely. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs66Nk1eJ9ybB-_ZV0VdEovmj5EffjrjH4z3hYXu_lM/edit?usp=sharing Edited April 29, 2023 by Chaos Edited to move Trice and Savlideri (did not intend to include them because i estimated them to be gone) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 This is just chaos now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said: This is just chaos now An organized list from 1-65 is actually the opposite of Chaos 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Wait Beane is boycotting the Big 10? I hadn't heard that. That's actually pretty funny to me for some reason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeF Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, Chaos said: An organized list from 1-65 is actually the opposite of Chaos Thanks @Chaos. Your work is much appreciated. I really like Karl Brooks. He has position flexibility, quick off the snap and shows power. He would be a good guy to develop for a year and then when the Bills extend Jones (they have to find money to do this) pair with him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 22 minutes ago, Chaos said: DT Karl Brooks CB Cory Trice Jr. G/OT Nick Saldiveri DT Moro Ojomo WR Charlie Jones DT Cameron Young One down already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Chaos said: One down already. The best one imo 😔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 I actually did not intend to include Saldiveri on Trice on the original list because I did not expect them to be avaiable when the Bills pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingBoots8 Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) Really liking your 6 selections. I’m high on Brooks so if he falls a little to 137 I’d be very happy with that. I think Young will be gone (mostly because he played for ‘Bama) CB isn’t a need but I could see the Bills target any one of Trice, Trevisius Hodgins-Thomlinson (likely gone before 137), Mekhi Gardner, or even Carrington Valentine depending how round 4 shakes out. BFW is my WR prediction for 137 if he’s still there. Edited April 29, 2023 by KingBoots8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffaloboyinATL Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Chaos said: My official guess is "the highest ranked player on the board available when the Bills pick at 137". However player availability and board rank are independent variables, and based on my estimate of who will be available, I expect the player will come from among this smaller list: DT Karl Brooks DT Moro Ojomo WR Charlie Jones DT Cameron Young Ok, let's take this guy and call him Mojo. Edited April 29, 2023 by buffaloboyinATL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 When was the last time someone fell as far out of favor as Dawand Jones has? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 (edited) Id take a flyier on the wr from WV Wheaton. Reminds me of Martavious Bryant Edited April 29, 2023 by Mat68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 DT Karl Brooks DT Moro Ojomo WR Charlie Jones DT Cameron Young One off the Board Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 DT Karl Brooks DT Moro Ojomo WR Charlie Jones DT Cameron Young Two off the Board. Players I have ranked higher than Brooks or Ojomo will likely be on the board at 137. Charlie Jones is a decent player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bermuda Triangle Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, Chaos said: DT Karl Brooks DT Moro Ojomo WR Charlie Jones DT Cameron Young Two off the Board. Players I have ranked higher than Brooks or Ojomo will likely be on the board at 137. Charlie Jones is a decent player. Jones is a former UB Bull. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StHustle Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, Chaos said: Players I have ranked higher than Brooks or Ojomo will likely be on the board at 137. Who? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 i did not plan lunch time properly. 1 minute ago, StHustle said: Who? Antonio Johnson Tyler Scott Luke Wypler A.T. Perry KJ Henry Anthony Johnson Jr. TRE'VIUS HODGES-TOMLINSON JL Skinner Jaquelin Roy Darius Rush Olu Oluwatimi heart breaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StHustle Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 7 minutes ago, Chaos said: i did not plan lunch time properly. Antonio Johnson Tyler Scott Luke Wypler A.T. Perry KJ Henry Anthony Johnson Jr. TRE'VIUS HODGES-TOMLINSON JL Skinner Jaquelin Roy Darius Rush Olu Oluwatimi heart breaker so what’s your final top 4 prediction list? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QLBillsFan Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Roy DT C Smith S or trade back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StHustle Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 11 minutes ago, Chaos said: i did not plan lunch time properly. Antonio Johnson Tyler Scott Luke Wypler A.T. Perry KJ Henry Anthony Johnson Jr. TRE'VIUS HODGES-TOMLINSON JL Skinner Jaquelin Roy Darius Rush Olu Oluwatimi heart breaker Bills on the clock…got a few minutes to cement your legacy as Chaostradamus!! List your final 4-5 in order Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 We gained 2 more picks! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StHustle Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 *Welp never mind…trade back lol 1 minute ago, Chandler#81 said: We gained 2 more picks! *1 more 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeverOutNick Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 1 minute ago, StHustle said: so what’s your final top 4 prediction list? top of my head these are a few guys I’d be good with taking after the trade Luke Wypler AT Perry Xavier Hutchison Parker Washington Kayshon Boutte Jaelyn Duncan Ryan Hayes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, StHustle said: Bills on the clock…got a few minutes to cement your legacy as Chaostradamus!! List your final 4-5 in order Trade back screwed me on lunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrivefourfive Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Cameron Young just hits the ***** out of the golf ball. And, you’re a genius @Chaos Bills should trade their 5th and 6th for a 2024 4th and 5th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 Take the best DT on the board. The IR him in training camp so he doesn't get poached from the PS 14 minutes ago, StHustle said: *Welp never mind…trade back lol *1 more 15 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said: We gained 2 more picks! At first I was going to crap on this but dam Beane has been good in the 6th round. Just load up on DL the rest of the draft and hope one of them sticks 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 Still have guys I estimated to be at the top of the Bills board, who were obviously not the top of any teams board who has picked today Antonio Johnson - The Dawand Jones of safeties, apparently Luke Wypler A.T. Perry Anthony Johnson Jr. TRE'VIUS HODGES-TOMLINSON JL Skinner Olu Oluwatimi Karl Brooks Moro Ojomo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 Shorter was deep on my board. He made it because he had visit with the Bills. This was a complete miss by me. Estimated to have virtually zero 2023 impact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 40 minutes ago, Chaos said: Shorter was deep on my board. He made it because he had visit with the Bills. This was a complete miss by me. Estimated to have virtually zero 2023 impact. who is left out there that had visits? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted April 29, 2023 Author Share Posted April 29, 2023 1 minute ago, NoSaint said: who is left out there that had visits? a chunk of guys. Too lazy to sort it out https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2023/04/nfl-draft-2023-buffalo-bills-top-30-visit-zoom-and-private-workout-tracker.html#:~:text=NFL Draft 2023%3A Buffalo Bills top-30 visit%2C Zoom,3 Private workouts Sam LaPorta%2C TE%2C Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mead107 Posted April 29, 2023 Share Posted April 29, 2023 QB will be next pick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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