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Guestimated Bills Draft Board of remaining players as we head toward #137


Chaos

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The deeper into the draft we go, any simulations/mocks/projections/guesses become more and more just guesses.  

I have had reasonable success in simulating the first three rounds.   I have given some analysis explaining each of those picks.  For this round I am going to give my projected Bills board for the next 65 picks with an explanation of the methodology I have been using.   My official guess is "the highest ranked player on the board available when the Bills pick at 137".  However player availability and board rank are independent variables,  and based on my estimate of who will be available, I expect the player will come from among this smaller list:

 

  1. DT Karl Brooks
  2. DT Moro Ojomo
  3. WR Charlie Jones
  4. DT Cameron Young


.Here is a link to a google sheet, showing the whole list of 65 in this format.  In rounds 1 and 2 I did a very detailed analysis of likely availabilty player by player.  In this round, I grouped the players into tiers (because I got lazy) for evaluating likely availability.   In all rounds I calculated a metric I call 2023 impact potential, and then calculate the RANK of this metric. So in this round, the max rank was 65, because I evaluated 65 players. If a player scored at the top of the list for each of my values rolling into "2023 impact potential" they would have scored 65.  Of the remaining players 2 guys jump off the page as having the greatest potential to have impact on 2023, D.  Jones, and Kelee Ringo. This seems to pass any eye test as logical as well.  What I think is a bit different about my 2023 Impact potential calculation is that it completely disregards development potential and the future.  The top teams have no interest in "developing" talent in my estimation.  The Bills are one of the top teams that as moved past that point.  For example, Someone will draft Andrew Vorhees in this draft, maybe in the fourth round.  Due to his ACL injury, I rank him as zero potential to impact 2023, and as such he is at the bottom of my list of these 65 players.  D. Jones could be a total bust.  He also could be could be the answer to the Spencer Brown problem at RT, the Bills current weakest link on offense.  I personally would be rolling the dice and trying to trade with the bears to get him. But I learned from someone yesterday, Beane is boycotting the Big Ten. So probably not likely. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs66Nk1eJ9ybB-_ZV0VdEovmj5EffjrjH4z3hYXu_lM/edit?usp=sharing

image.thumb.png.4c285ba24b78ad927349677767423506.png

Edited by Chaos
Edited to move Trice and Savlideri (did not intend to include them because i estimated them to be gone)
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3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

An organized list from 1-65 is actually the opposite of Chaos :)

Thanks @Chaos.  Your work is much appreciated.

 

I really like Karl Brooks.  He has position flexibility, quick off the snap and shows power.  He would be a good guy to develop for a year and then when the Bills extend Jones (they have to find money to do this) pair with him.

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Really liking your 6 selections. I’m high on Brooks so if he falls a little to 137 I’d be very happy with that. I think Young will be gone (mostly because he played for ‘Bama)

 

 

CB isn’t a need but I could see the Bills target any one of Trice, Trevisius Hodgins-Thomlinson (likely gone before 137), Mekhi Gardner, or even Carrington Valentine depending how round 4 shakes out. 
 

 

BFW is my WR prediction for 137 if he’s still there.

Edited by KingBoots8
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32 minutes ago, Chaos said:

   My official guess is "the highest ranked player on the board available when the Bills pick at 137".  However player availability and board rank are independent variables,  and based on my estimate of who will be available, I expect the player will come from among this smaller list:

  1. DT Karl Brooks
  2. DT Moro Ojomo
  3. WR Charlie Jones
  4. DT Cameron Young

 

Ok, let's take this guy and call him Mojo.  

 

 

Edited by buffaloboyinATL
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i did not plan lunch time properly.  

1 minute ago, StHustle said:

Who?

Antonio Johnson

Tyler Scott

Luke Wypler

A.T. Perry

KJ Henry

Anthony Johnson Jr.

TRE'VIUS HODGES-TOMLINSON

JL Skinner

Jaquelin Roy

Darius Rush

Olu Oluwatimi

heart breaker

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7 minutes ago, Chaos said:

i did not plan lunch time properly.  

Antonio Johnson

Tyler Scott

Luke Wypler

A.T. Perry

KJ Henry

Anthony Johnson Jr.

TRE'VIUS HODGES-TOMLINSON

JL Skinner

Jaquelin Roy

Darius Rush

Olu Oluwatimi

heart breaker


so what’s your final top 4 prediction list?

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11 minutes ago, Chaos said:

i did not plan lunch time properly.  

Antonio Johnson

Tyler Scott

Luke Wypler

A.T. Perry

KJ Henry

Anthony Johnson Jr.

TRE'VIUS HODGES-TOMLINSON

JL Skinner

Jaquelin Roy

Darius Rush

Olu Oluwatimi

heart breaker


Bills on the clock…got a few minutes to cement your legacy as Chaostradamus!!

 

List your final 4-5 in order

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