This might be the perfect WR class for the Bills to draft one in the mid rounds

[Dr. Who]

14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I changed the title. I don't think many of you got my point.

 

There are 14 WRs ranked in the top 100 (Brugler). I think some of you are bizarrely of the belief that it's 1st round WR or bust because no one else will be worthwhile.

 

I think that's misguided 

 

I disagree 

I do like Rice and Mingo as third round picks if that's the way it plays out. I'd take a shot with Bryce Ford-Wheaton as a later round developmental project with good size. I wanted to trade up for Jameson Williams last year, because you could see this was going to be a down year at the position then.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

This WR class is just so underwhelming that I don't think given where we pick would be much of an upgrade of what we have right now.  Next year's class has to be better.  Right?  I'm thinking more long term with Josh anyways.  I'd prefer a tackle that can play both sides and push Spencer Brown for his job.  Maybe eventually take over for Dion Dawkins.  My ideal first three picks would be something along the lines of Wright in the first, Campbell or Sanders in the 2nd, and then maybe take a chance on someone like Mauch (assuming Avilia is off the board) in the 3rd.  Kick him inside to develop as a guard.

 

 

Actually I think next years WR class will probably be worse.   This one lacks a sure thing at the top but I think that the rest of the class is getting docked a bit for that.    Guys like JSN and Addison would have been first rounders in a strong WR draft coming off their 2021 performances had they been in the draft of 2022, IMO.   Others in this class like Xavier Hutchinson were getting some buzz as early rounders going into January last year prior to opting to stay in school.   Yeah.........you aren't likely to get a Tee Higgins late 1 or early 2 this year but it's not a class of bums at WR.   And this might be a year where you can include a couple TE's as receivers if your OC promises to utilize them.  

 

I think the likelihood at this point(based on boards that aren't really reflective of the teams themselves) is that the best value available to the Bills at a premium position at #27 will be edge rusher.    I don't love that it falls down that way but you shouldn't Cody-Ford yourself as an organization because you perceive a need at a non-premium position matters.   They kinda' don't.........and with one injury almost any position could be a glaring need 4-6 months from now so needs to me really aren't that compelling on draft day.     

[Nephilim17]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I think we've drafted enough late-round WR and we really need to make an early round investment. 

I absolutely agree. Just don't use a 1st on a slot guy. It's nuts that we have Diggs turning 30 this year and no one being groomed to replace him. Maybe Davis was hoped to be that guy, but with a QB like Allen we should be taking a shot every year at a potentially starting outside receiver and hopefully a guy with good traits.

I think most people are in agreement we can take a slot guy but not in the first. I think.

[John from Riverside]

20 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Congrats on that glass half full perspective.  Diggs is almost 30.  Davis has been underwhelming as WR2 who's in the last year of his contract.  We should be looking to draft a future Diggs replacement who can play on the outside as the WR2 in the meantime. Unfortunately, this WR draft class is abhorrent. 

I don’t know what would prevent us from taking two wide receivers in this draft I wouldn’t be against it

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I don’t know what would prevent us from taking two wide receivers in this draft I wouldn’t be against it

Only having six picks would pry be the only reason.  I expect at least one though in the first three rounds.  Too many WR pre draft visits to think otherwise.  

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I do like Rice and Mingo as third round picks if that's the way it plays out. I'd take a shot with Bryce Ford-Wheaton as a later round developmental project with good size. I wanted to trade up for Jameson Williams last year, because you could see this was going to be a down year at the position then.

 

Well... I think the discrepancy here is that you're assuming that the Bills will/should be targeting a WR with size

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I changed the title. I don't think many of you got my point.

 

There are 14 WRs ranked in the top 100 (Brugler). I think some of you are bizarrely of the belief that it's 1st round WR or bust because no one else will be worthwhile.

 

I think that's misguided 

 

I disagree 

 

My perception has been that this a weaker receiver class (it is a weaker draft class in general) but that the weakness at receiver is most pronounced in the first two rounds. 

 

But given your point re. Dane Brugler (who I am a big fan of, he is one of the best around IMO) I have just done a bit of a compare and contrast my board, his board, 2022 and 2023. I started by counting in my top 100 this year and I also, by an interesting quirk, have 14. I've compared my 14 to Dane's. We have 10 that we both have in that 14.... 4 that we differ on. The four he has as top 100 grades that I don't are my receivers 15, 16, 17 and 18. The four I have top 100 grades on that he doesn't are his receivers 15, 16, 17, and 18. We both have AT Perry as WR14 and the last WR in our top 100. He has a 3rd-4th borderline on him, I have him a point lower on my board as a high 4th rounder.

 

I compared us both to last year as well, because the way to compare the strength of a position group isn't just relative to the other position groups in a draft... especially not when most recognise it as a weaker draft... but to compare it relative to other classes. And it's fair to say Dane and I differed a little more, though not massively, in 2022. 

 

In 2022 I had 17 WRs in my top 100, the 17th being my #96 overall player - Khalil Shakir, on whom I had a late 3rd round grade. Dane again had 14 WRs in his top 100 with the 14th and final being Wan'dale Robinson with a 3rd-4th borderline grade (he then did have Austin and Shakir who were my WR16 and WR17 as his WR15 and WR16 and just outside the top 100). The one we disagreed on really was Justyn Ross and he made clear on his write up he had downgraded him because of medicals whereas I don't downgrade people on medicals because I don't have access to the same level of info as people like Dane so I grade them on the tape and then just asterisk them. The other difference we both have is last year I had 12 WRs with at worst a 2nd-3rd borderline grade. Dane had 10. This year I have 7, he has 8. At the very top Dane had 5 firsts and one 1st-2nd borderline compared this year to 1 first and four borderline and I had 4 firsts and one 1st-2nd borderline compared this year to 0 firsts and two borderline. 

 

My conclusions from this exercise:

 

1. It is definitely a weaker wide receiver class at the very top of the draft.

2. That continues to be the case through the 2nd round.

3. While it remains, overall, slightly weaker than last year by the end of round 3 / early round 4 it has evened out much more.

 

I think one final thing to throw into the pot might be that the only guys you'd say had a proper "impact" as rookies last year were the guys I had ranked as WR1-7 (Olave, Williams, Wilson, London, Watson, Dotson, Pickens) and had 1st, borderline or high 2nds on. Dane had a slightly different order he had Pickens WR8 and Watson WR10. But the point being that while, of course, the Bills can draft a wide receiver later in the draft... rounds 3 and 4 might be particularly rich in "value" at receiver the chance that you find someone who can come in and make an impact, compete with Gabe or even win the starting slot job is slim. After their moves in FA I wouldn't particularly say the Bills need at receiver is a "depth" thing. It is an impact thing, they need more guys who can make those difference making plays. 

 

So while, I see your point, I think the idea we can take a lower priority position at #27 because there are receivers who might be available later is not wrong, but inherently risky. 

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My perception has been that this a weaker receiver class (it is a weaker draft class in general) but that the weakness at receiver is most pronounced in the first two rounds. 

 

But given your point re. Dane Brugler (who I am a big fan of, he is one of the best around IMO) I have just done a bit of a compare and contrast my board, his board, 2022 and 2023. I started by counting in my top 100 this year and I also, by an interesting quirk, have 14. I've compared my 14 to Dane's. We have 10 that we both have in that 14.... 4 that we differ on. The four he has as top 100 grades that I don't are my receivers 15, 16, 17 and 18. The four I have top 100 grades on that he doesn't are his receivers 15, 16, 17, and 18. We both have AT Perry as WR14 and the last WR in our top 100. He has a 3rd-4th borderline on him, I have him a point lower on my board as a high 4th rounder.

 

I compared us both to last year as well, because the way to compare the strength of a position group isn't just relative to the other position groups in a draft... especially not when most recognise it as a weaker draft... but to compare it relative to other classes. And it's fair to say Dane and I differed a little more, though not massively, in 2022. 

 

In 2022 I had 17 WRs in my top 100, the 17th being my #96 overall player - Khalil Shakir, on whom I had a late 3rd round grade. Dane again had 14 WRs in his top 100 with the 14th and final being Wan'dale Robinson with a 3rd-4th borderline grade (he then did have Austin and Shakir who were my WR16 and WR17 as his WR15 and WR16 and just outside the top 100). The one we disagreed on really was Justyn Ross and he made clear on his write up he had downgraded him because of medicals whereas I don't downgrade people on medicals because I don't have access to the same level of info as people like Dane so I grade them on the tape and then just asterisk them. The other difference we both have is last year I had 12 WRs with at worst a 2nd-3rd borderline grade. Dane had 10. This year I have 7, he has 8. At the very top Dane had 5 firsts and one 1st-2nd borderline compared this year to 1 first and four borderline and I had 4 firsts and one 1st-2nd borderline compared this year to 0 firsts and two borderline. 

 

My conclusions from this exercise:

 

1. It is definitely a weaker wide receiver class at the very top of the draft.

2. That continues to be the case through the 2nd round.

3. While it remains, overall, slightly weaker than last year by the end of round 3 / early round 4 it has evened out much more.

 

I think one final thing to throw into the pot might be that the only guys you'd say had a proper "impact" as rookies last year were the guys I had ranked as WR1-7 (Olave, Williams, Wilson, London, Watson, Dotson, Pickens) and had 1st, borderline or high 2nds on. Dane had a slightly different order he had Pickens WR8 and Watson WR10. But the point being that while, of course, the Bills can draft a wide receiver later in the draft... rounds 3 and 4 might be particularly rich in "value" at receiver the chance that you find someone who can come in and make an impact, compete with Gabe or even win the starting slot job is slim. After their moves in FA I wouldn't particularly say the Bills need at receiver is a "depth" thing. It is an impact thing, they need more guys who can make those difference making plays. 

 

So while, I see your point, I think the idea we can take a lower priority position at #27 because there are receivers who might be available later is not wrong, but inherently risky. 

 

Thanks Gunner. I genuinely appreciate the response.

 

I think you generally captured what I was trying to say in the 2nd to last paragraph at towards the end.

 

Since you have your scouting background, can you give us your favorite 1 or 2 WRs by round that you'd like to see in the draft?

 

Right now it seems like most have JSN as in a league of his own in this draft but still relatively within reach with a trade up. Do you agree? Would you do it?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Thanks Gunner. I genuinely appreciate the response.

 

I think you generally captured what I was trying to say in the 2nd to last paragraph at towards the end.

 

Since you have your scouting background, can you give us your favorite 1 or 2 WRs by round that you'd like to see in the draft?

 

Right now it seems like most have JSN as in a league of his own in this draft but still relatively within reach with a trade up. Do you agree? Would you do it?

 

I think JSN will go top 15 and no I wouldn't trade up that high. If Addison gets within 3 or 4 picks I might do it. I'd pick Quinten Johnston if he fell to #27 as well, and I could live with Jalin Hyatt. Round 2 I suspect the guys I like enough to select in that round will all be gone. Maybe Rashee Rice or Cedric Tillman standing pat at #59 if one of them is there. Round 3 I think Xavier Hutchinson migh be there for us and he is my favourite of that tier of receivers so if we haven't addressed it by that point I'd take a swing on him, but I think he is more a developmental player than a day 1 impact player.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think JSN will go top 15 and no I wouldn't trade up that high. If Addison gets within 3 or 4 picks I might do it. I'd pick Quinten Johnston if he fell to #27 as well, and I could live with Jalin Hyatt. Round 2 I suspect the guys I like enough to select in that round will all be gone. Maybe Rashee Rice or Cedric Tillman standing pat at #59 if one of them is there. Round 3 I think Xavier Hutchinson migh be there for us and he is my favourite of that tier of receivers so if we haven't addressed it by that point I'd take a swing on him, but I think he is more a developmental player than a day 1 impact player.

 

Zay Flowers?

 

Do you have a separate grade for Bills specific players? I appreciate that Joe Marino, for example, comes out with a separate Bills ranking.

 

And while I could see the push back against something like that, I think scheme/culture fit needs to be a consideration.

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Zay Flowers?

 

Do you have a separate grade for Bills specific players? I appreciate that Joe Marino, for example, comes out with a separate Bills ranking.

 

And while I could see the push back against something like that, I think scheme/culture fit needs to be a consideration.

 

I wouldn't take Zay in round one myself. Someone will. But I wouldn't. I think he is so specific a player. He is small. He is light. And he has extremely short arms. It was one of the reasons Khalil Shakir fell to round 5 last year. 29 inch arms. Flowers is 29 and a quarter. The list of NFL receivers who have succeeded with arms that short is almost non-existent. I think the arms mean he will struggle to get off any type of press coverage, so you are limited to slot receiver and I think if you pigeon hole him into being a traditional slot you are not going to maximise his skillset. He is a guy you need to scheme in space. Lots of gimmick stuff, bubble screens, double pass concepts, end arounds and sweeps, pitch and toss plays, routes out of the backfield. If he went to San Francisco with Shanahan he would be a star, but unfortunately for him he will probably land somewhere where a team tries to pigeon hole him intona position rather than just saying "get it to him in space". 

 

I don't have a separate grade for Bills players but when I am watching someone I am thinking about scheme fits. Because that hurts the value of someone like Zay for me. He has to be used in such a specific way.... and a lot of offenses you look at and think "not their style, not their identity." 

 

For the Bills specifically a few traits they seem to value above others by position group:

 

- route running for receivers;

- athleticism for offensive linemen;

- size and blocking ability at tight end;

- length at edge;

- length at corner;

- smarts and coverage ability at safety.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Sierra Foothills]

On 4/15/2023 at 9:29 AM, whorlnut said:

You “hope” the chiefs get a guy that you compare to tyreke hill and not the bills?  You must be a chiefs fan, because why would you want that to happen?

 

Look at his avatar.

 

On 4/15/2023 at 12:50 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

You can ALWAYS afford to wait on a slot-only WR in the draft.

 

And it's also not a need.    They have a slot-only in Harty.  

 

The reality is that they don't need a slot-only WR at all.........they need a boundary WR to bump Davis back to WR3 where he belongs.

 

And that WR2 will hopefully have some slot flexibility or if not then at least it would still allow Diggs to be in the slot and get the free release opportunities that slot receivers get and better matchups.  

 

Slot receiver is not a need?

 

Last year none of Jamison Crowder, Khalil Shakir or Isaiah McKenzie was adequate to the point they felt the need to bring back Beasley.

 

This year only the still unproven Shakir returns from that group.

 

While I like Harty he is not a proven commodity and McBeane spoke of him as slotting in as the number 4 receiver. I also like the Sherfield signing but even the aggregate of those two can't be viewed as a sure thing to adequately fill the position.

 

IMO slot receiver is most definitely a need. For one there needs to be more competition at that position and the need to surround Josh with more weapons, especially those who can separate early enhances that need.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Look at his avatar.

 

 

Slot receiver is not a need?

 

Last year none of Jamison Crowder, Khalil Shakir or Isaiah McKenzie was adequate to the point they felt the need to bring back Beasley.

 

This year only the still unproven Shakir returns from that group.

 

While I like Harty he is not a proven commodity and McBeane spoke of him as slotting in as the number 4 receiver. I also like the Sherfield signing but even the aggregate of those two can't be viewed as a sure thing to adequately fill the position.

 

IMO slot receiver is most definitely a need. For one there needs to be more competition at that position and the need to surround Josh with more weapons, especially those who can separate early enhances that need.

I like Josh Downs, but not at 27.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Look at his avatar.

 

 

Slot receiver is not a need?

 

Last year none of Jamison Crowder, Khalil Shakir or Isaiah McKenzie was adequate to the point they felt the need to bring back Beasley.

 

This year only the still unproven Shakir returns from that group.

 

While I like Harty he is not a proven commodity and McBeane spoke of him as slotting in as the number 4 receiver. I also like the Sherfield signing but even the aggregate of those two can't be viewed as a sure thing to adequately fill the position.

 

IMO slot receiver is most definitely a need. For one there needs to be more competition at that position and the need to surround Josh with more weapons, especially those who can separate early enhances that need.

 

Slot-only is not a need.   They addressed that with Harty........who got paid like a starting slot WR unlike the flyers they took last season.

 

What they need is an outside receiver who can be GREAT at slot.

 

That's Stefon Diggs.........if they add another boundary threat.

 

I thought I spelled that out pretty clearly but apparently not.

[dave mcbride]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Slot-only is not a need.   They addressed that with Harty........who got paid like a starting slot WR unlike the flyers they took last season.

 

What they need is an outside receiver who can be GREAT at slot.

 

That's Stefon Diggs.........if they add another boundary threat.

 

I thought I spelled that out pretty clearly but apparently not.

I think Addison is that player - a guy who can legit play inside and outside. He's a bit of a Diggs clone in his skill set (elite separator with top-of-the-route twitchiness along with a very large route tree for a college player). 

[Dr. Who]

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

I think Addison is that player - a guy who can legit play inside and outside. He's a bit of a Diggs clone in his skill set (elite separator with top-of-the-route twitchiness along with a very large route tree for a college player). 

I hope Beane has the opportunity and the cajones to pay the price to trade up for him. Lots of folks saying he is meh. I don't think they appreciate sufficiently his skill set and the rarity of his developed route tree at the collegiate level. He's a true first rounder that perfectly matches a primary need at a position of value. 

[ColoradoBills]

On 4/15/2023 at 7:09 PM, John from Riverside said:

I don’t know what would prevent us from taking two wide receivers in this draft I wouldn’t be against it

 

Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty and Sherfield are all most likely locks.  Unless they go with 7 WRs, drafting 2 is unlikely.

 

General WR comments:

I can't see a "slot only" WR drafted (especially higher rounds).  Just doesn't make sense with Harty and Shakir penciled in for that.

Add that Diggs lines up in the slot a decent amount of the time and Sherfield able to do that, it just seems not to be in the cards this year.

 

As much as some fans don't want to hear it, Davis is the WR2 until his is displaced.  So, in my amateur football knowledge drafting a future WR2

(mainly outside, with a deep threat possibility) somewhere Day 2 seems to be the smart move for this season.  Jonathan Mingo seems to be

a possibility.  

 

I would also like to hear what players fit the bill in the 4th round.  Appreciate anyone with comments on that.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On 4/15/2023 at 3:48 AM, freddyjj said:

One of the worst movies I’ve ever seen, if not the worst given the franchise behind it. 

6 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Harty and Sherfield are all most likely locks.  Unless they go with 7 WRs, drafting 2 is unlikely.

 

General WR comments:

I can't see a "slot only" WR drafted (especially higher rounds).  Just doesn't make sense with Harty and Shakir penciled in for that.

Add that Diggs lines up in the slot a decent amount of the time and Sherfield able to do that, it just seems not to be in the cards this year.

 

As much as some fans don't want to hear it, Davis is the WR2 until his is displaced.  So, in my amateur football knowledge drafting a future WR2

(mainly outside, with a deep threat possibility) somewhere Day 2 seems to be the smart move for this season.  Jonathan Mingo seems to be

a possibility.  

 

I would also like to hear what players fit the bill in the 4th round.  Appreciate anyone with comments on that.

What’s obvious when you look at this list is there are no elite physical trait WRs on the roster. 

[Warriorspikes51]

6 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I hope Beane has the opportunity and the cajones to pay the price to trade up for him. Lots of folks saying he is meh. I don't think they appreciate sufficiently his skill set and the rarity of his developed route tree at the collegiate level. He's a true first rounder that perfectly matches a primary need at a position of value. 

I’d think the Steelers would enjoy picking him to reunite him with Kenny P.  

[Richard Noggin]

On 4/15/2023 at 9:09 PM, John from Riverside said:

I don’t know what would prevent us from taking two wide receivers in this draft I wouldn’t be against it

 

On 4/15/2023 at 11:52 PM, Doc Brown said:

Only having six picks would pry be the only reason.  I expect at least one though in the first three rounds.  Too many WR pre draft visits to think otherwise.  

 

I'd initially want to argue that the Bills depth chart is the reason drafting two WRs could be counterproductive:

 

Diggs

Davis

Shakir

Harty

Sherfield

 

Either one of those 5 is bumped off the roster, or one of the two drafted WRs is going to be a gameday inactive or practice squad poach candidate. 

 

Then again, the more I look at this, the more I disagree with my own initial reaction. Sure feels like Davis is a goner after this season, and it's probably smart to prepare for a post-Diggs future. Sherfield only signed for one year. Therefore, they should add at least one compelling WR prospect to the pipeline. 

[Doc Brown]

30 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

 

I'd initially want to argue that the Bills depth chart is the reason drafting two WRs could be counterproductive:

 

Diggs

Davis

Shakir

Harty

Sherfield

 

Either one of those 5 is bumped off the roster, or one of the two drafted WRs is going to be a gameday inactive or practice squad poach candidate. 

 

Then again, the more I look at this, the more I disagree with my own initial reaction. Sure feels like Davis is a goner after this season, and it's probably smart to prepare for a post-Diggs future. Sherfield only signed for one year. Therefore, they should add at least one compelling WR prospect to the pipeline. 

Good point.  It depends on how their board falls as I'm guessing they take BPA regardless of position (besides QB, K, P) after day two.  We do also have Patmon, Johnson, and Coulter (all day three picks) signed who will serve as camp bodies at minimum.

Edited April 18, 2023 by Doc Brown

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 4/15/2023 at 7:37 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That's the same kind of logic that lead the Chiefs to draft Clyde Edwards Helaire in round 1.

 

Reaching for need at a non-premium position........which slot-WR-only is......is a recipe for draft disappointment.

 

I know that some people don't get this concept and think the slot receiver has to be a small target smurf with quicks..........but if you run a lot of 11 personnel you want 3 WR's who can play outside at a high level and ALSO in the slot.   Like the aforementioned Bengals.  

 

Forget peak Beasley.........he was just barely good enough at his best for what the Bills SHOULD give Allen in the slot.    Gotta' raise the bar.

U wouldn’t be saying this if the Chiefs took Jonathan Taylor instead of CEH? 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

U wouldn’t be saying this if the Chiefs took Jonathan Taylor instead of CEH? 

 

Yeah, I would have.   RB's are just dumb selections in round 1.    Taking the ball out of the hand of a QB who is producing nearly 8 yards per pass attempt.......even for a guy like Taylor who had two years of 5+ yards per rush.........is just terrible math and it's hard to justify NOT doing that when you use such a valuable chip on a RB.    Of course Taylor fell down below Devin Singletary in terms of ypr last year so he's not the "but what about THIS great RB" example du jour anymore.   So much for the "get 5 great years and let him walk" formula.  😂 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah, I would have.   RB's are just dumb selections in round 1.    Taking the ball out of the hand of a QB who is producing nearly 8 yards per pass attempt.......even for a guy like Taylor who had two years of 5+ yards per rush.........is just terrible math and it's hard to justify NOT doing that when you use such a valuable chip on a RB.    Of course Taylor fell down below Devin Singletary in terms of ypr last year so he's not the "but what about THIS great RB" example du jour anymore.   So much for the "get 5 great years and let him walk" formula.  😂 

Not all YPC are the same one guy plays with Josh Allen the other playing with Ryan, Ehlinger & Foles. Give Taylor those 6 man fronts and there’s gonna be trouble for the D. Btw your philosophy of taking the ball out the hands of the QB is flawed . When u have a balance u get more plays to run there’s more then enough plays in a game for both Mahomes and Taylor to both flourish. 

[BADOLBILZ]

30 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Not all YPC are the same one guy plays with Josh Allen the other playing with Ryan, Ehlinger & Foles. Give Taylor those 6 man fronts and there’s gonna be trouble for the D. Btw your philosophy of taking the ball out the hands of the QB is flawed . When u have a balance u get more plays to run there’s more then enough plays in a game for both Mahomes and Taylor to both flourish. 

 

 

My philosophy is not flawed at all........it's entirely consistent with the last 10 SB winners.   All lead in rushing by nobodies who little was invested in.   That's reality.

 

The problem with making a regular habit out of feeding a stud RB is that in the playoffs EVERYBODY plays run defense.  So then those carries that were successful in the regular season become forced and less effective.    It's why Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara could never get to the SB despite getting home field advantage multiple times.  The idea of balance looks good in your minds eye but ultimately if you have stud QB's in your bracket you need to be prepared to throw the ball every down in the playoffs.    And you practice like you play........and the regular season is that practice.    If you are a team that needs balance to succeed.......that balance will be taken away from you.    If you can throw the ball every down you are indefensible in todays NFL.    

[starrymessenger]

The class lacks any alpha studs at the WR position but that doesn't necessarily mean that the class is bad, as many have said. It's actually quite deep and I expect that some good wideouts will come out of this draft. A guy like Mims, who has been projected in the 3rd is pretty much very close in terms of value to the guys who are touted for the 1st. To me Mims is way more desirable than a guy like Hyatt. If you insist on a big body then maybe Tillman would be a good get in the 3rd. If players like that drop out of the 3rd you should jump on them. And there are a number of interesting projects who will go backend of the draft or undrafted. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

22 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

My philosophy is not flawed at all........it's entirely consistent with the last 10 SB winners.   All lead in rushing by nobodies who little was invested in.   That's reality.

 

The problem with making a regular habit out of feeding a stud RB is that in the playoffs EVERYBODY plays run defense.  So then those carries that were successful in the regular season become forced and less effective.    It's why Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara could never get to the SB despite getting home field advantage multiple times.  The idea of balance looks good in your minds eye but ultimately if you have stud QB's in your bracket you need to be prepared to throw the ball every down in the playoffs.    And you practice like you play........and the regular season is that practice.    If you are a team that needs balance to succeed.......that balance will be taken away from you.    If you can throw the ball every down you are indefensible in todays NFL.    

Not true whatsoever being one deminsional is not the way to go teams take away what u do best in the playoffs and sometimes u got to turn to other schemes to win. Mahomes threw for 175yds in the Super Bowl it was there running game that won the Chiefs the game. 
 

Yes there last 10 Super Bowl winners didn’t invest a ton in the Running back position but that doesn’t mean they didn’t use there backs Lenny had a huge performance vs the Chiefs. James White had 14 receptions vs the Falcons .Blount pounded teams in the playoffs Ray Rice was huge for The Ravens , Marshawn Lynch was the engine that ran that Seahawks teams that were dominating for a few yrs. 
 

I’m in the belief that u need Superstars to win the Super Bowl and other then QB and Oline  it doesn’t really matter where they play . The Chiefs have been winning with a superstar Wr, TE a Safety and DT the Pats had the TE , CB , LBers . At the end of the day if the Bills have a chance to take Bijan at #27 rather then a 2nd rd talent u do it and don’t look back. 

[Big Blitz]

 

 

 

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

6 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

 

 

he looks like an immediate producer from the slot

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Not true whatsoever being one deminsional is not the way to go teams take away what u do best in the playoffs and sometimes u got to turn to other schemes to win. Mahomes threw for 175yds in the Super Bowl it was there running game that won the Chiefs the game. 
 

Yes there last 10 Super Bowl winners didn’t invest a ton in the Running back position but that doesn’t mean they didn’t use there backs Lenny had a huge performance vs the Chiefs. James White had 14 receptions vs the Falcons .Blount pounded teams in the playoffs Ray Rice was huge for The Ravens , Marshawn Lynch was the engine that ran that Seahawks teams that were dominating for a few yrs. 
 

I’m in the belief that u need Superstars to win the Super Bowl and other then QB and Oline  it doesn’t really matter where they play . The Chiefs have been winning with a superstar Wr, TE a Safety and DT the Pats had the TE , CB , LBers . At the end of the day if the Bills have a chance to take Bijan at #27 rather then a 2nd rd talent u do it and don’t look back. 

 

Again.......follow the history.     It's not a coincidence that the teams that win SB's aren't relying on consistently excellent RB talent.    Do unsung players find huge opportunities in SB's?    At all positions.  But you don't need Saquon Barkley for 20 games to have a guy who can get 6 yards per carry against a light box in a random playoff game.     And you don't draft a RB in round 1 and give him 9 carries per game.   It's more like 19-20 touches per game required for that RB.   It's an investment in an identity and style of football that ONCE AGAIN just fell on it's face in the SB.

 

The story wasn't just Mahomes only throwing for 180 yards in a dominant, score-every-possession of the second half performance...........it was the Eagles league-best-balanced offense stable of running backs only rushing for a pathetic 45 yards on 17 carries.    The pressure applied by Mahomes.......in real time and based on past history...........turned the game into asking Jalen Hurts to make every play........and that wasn't how they played all season.    They predictably lost.

 

I absolutely love watching Bijan Robinson run the ball.   It's a thing of beauty.   Reminds me as much of Thurman Thomas as any RB I've seen since.    But since the rules were changed to reward teams that pass the ball to receivers who average 10-15 yards per reception every play........having an individual RB who required 1/4 or more of the touches every season has been a recipe for ending your season with an L.  

[NastyNateSoldiers]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Again.......follow the history.     It's not a coincidence that the teams that win SB's aren't relying on consistently excellent RB talent.    Do unsung players find huge opportunities in SB's?    At all positions.  But you don't need Saquon Barkley for 20 games to have a guy who can get 6 yards per carry against a light box in a random playoff game.     And you don't draft a RB in round 1 and give him 9 carries per game.   It's more like 19-20 touches per game required for that RB.   It's an investment in an identity and style of football that ONCE AGAIN just fell on it's face in the SB.

 

The story wasn't just Mahomes only throwing for 180 yards in a dominant, score-every-possession of the second half performance...........it was the Eagles league-best-balanced offense stable of running backs only rushing for a pathetic 45 yards on 17 carries.    The pressure applied by Mahomes.......in real time and based on past history...........turned the game into asking Jalen Hurts to make every play........and that wasn't how they played all season.    They predictably lost.

 

I absolutely love watching Bijan Robinson run the ball.   It's a thing of beauty.   Reminds me as much of Thurman Thomas as any RB I've seen since.    But since the rules were changed to reward teams that pass the ball to receivers who average 10-15 yards per reception every play........having an individual RB who required 1/4 or more of the touches every season has been a recipe for ending your season with an L.  

I agree with u in that if we take a back at premium spot it can’t be for 9 touches a week that’s for sure but i truly believe there’s room for 18-20 touches without giving up the identity as a pass first team. 
 

If we had a amazing running back to complement our amazing QB do u realize the pressure we put on defenses? And when it comes to the touches there’s going to be more opportunities for passing and running because when your unstoppable your going to be running more plays per game and this is something nobody really talks about. The Bills have averaged nearly 70 plays on offense per game over the last 3 seasons that’s more then enough to give the ball to the running backs 25/30 times and still have 40+ plays for our QB to inflict damage on the competition. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

20 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Again.......follow the history.     It's not a coincidence that the teams that win SB's aren't relying on consistently excellent RB talent.    Do unsung players find huge opportunities in SB's?    At all positions.  But you don't need Saquon Barkley for 20 games to have a guy who can get 6 yards per carry against a light box in a random playoff game.     And you don't draft a RB in round 1 and give him 9 carries per game.   It's more like 19-20 touches per game required for that RB.   It's an investment in an identity and style of football that ONCE AGAIN just fell on it's face in the SB.

 

The story wasn't just Mahomes only throwing for 180 yards in a dominant, score-every-possession of the second half performance...........it was the Eagles league-best-balanced offense stable of running backs only rushing for a pathetic 45 yards on 17 carries.    The pressure applied by Mahomes.......in real time and based on past history...........turned the game into asking Jalen Hurts to make every play........and that wasn't how they played all season.    They predictably lost.

 

I absolutely love watching Bijan Robinson run the ball.   It's a thing of beauty.   Reminds me as much of Thurman Thomas as any RB I've seen since.    But since the rules were changed to reward teams that pass the ball to receivers who average 10-15 yards per reception every play........having an individual RB who required 1/4 or more of the touches every season has been a recipe for ending your season with an L.  

That running identity that Philly has did not let them down in the Super Bowl it actually opened up massive opportunities in the passing game for the Eagles. The Chiefs keyed on that running game leaving them open to getting beat deep and Hurts and company took advantage of that. That game came down to a bad call who knows what would’ve happened if the Refs didn’t get involved. 

[BADOLBILZ]

11 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I agree with u in that if we take a back at premium spot it can’t be for 9 touches a week that’s for sure but i truly believe there’s room for 18-20 touches without giving up the identity as a pass first team. 
 

If we had a amazing running back to complement our amazing QB do u realize the pressure we put on defenses? And when it comes to the touches there’s going to be more opportunities for passing and running because when your unstoppable your going to be running more plays per game and this is something nobody really talks about. The Bills have averaged nearly 70 plays on offense per game over the last 3 seasons that’s more then enough to give the ball to the running backs 25/30 times and still have 40+ plays for our QB to inflict damage on the competition. 

 

 

I realize.......better yet I KNOW.........that teams want you to take the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen and hand it to even the best RB in the league instead.   Every time.  

 

A top QB averages about 8 yards per pass attempt..........a top RB averages around 4.5-5.5 per rush attempt.    A good slot receiver averages 11-13 yards per reception..........elite receiving RB's like McCaffrey or Kamara are around 8-9.  

 

They aren't even coming out of their base 4-2-5 if you are willing to take less yards per play.    They will just run in another set of defensive lineman and dare you to keep doing it.  

 

Maybe in the process you will make a mistake dinking your way down the field......get TFL'd or get a holding penalty........and/or QB will get out of rhythm and you will turn the ball over or punt.    Teams don't just stop focusing on your elite QB to stop your running game.    It's not 1992 anymore schematically OR in terms of offensive line execution.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

34 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

That running identity that Philly has did not let them down in the Super Bowl it actually opened up massive opportunities in the passing game for the Eagles. The Chiefs keyed on that running game leaving them open to getting beat deep and Hurts and company took advantage of that. That game came down to a bad call who knows what would’ve happened if the Refs didn’t get involved. 

 

 

The Eagles were the much superior roster in every regard except QB and TE.    In 1992 that's a blowout win for the Eagles.   But Hurts was outperformed by Mahomes by a significant margin playing 2022 football.   You are confusing the counting stats that Hurts put up in 36 minutes of possession with efficiency.    They challenged him to be a QB and he probably did the very best that he could but 11 passes ended up on the turf and he gifted the Chiefs a TD with a fumble trying to do too much.   They made a non-elite passer try to beat them and he wasn't quite up to the task.      

[wppete]

 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I realize.......better yet I KNOW.........that teams want you to take the ball out of the hands of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen and hand it to even the best RB in the league instead.   Every time.  

 

A top QB averages about 8 yards per pass attempt..........a top RB averages around 4.5-5.5 per rush attempt.    A good slot receiver averages 11-13 yards per reception..........elite receiving RB's like McCaffrey or Kamara are around 8-9.  

 

They aren't even coming out of their base 4-2-5 if you are willing to take less yards per play.    They will just run in another set of defensive lineman and dare you to keep doing it.  

 

Maybe in the process you will make a mistake dinking your way down the field......get TFL'd or get a holding penalty........and/or QB will get out of rhythm and you will turn the ball over or punt.    Teams don't just stop focusing on your elite QB to stop your running game.    It's not 1992 anymore schematically OR in terms of offensive line execution.

 

No matter what u say a QB can not throw the ball 50+ times a game for a whole season so therefore there are about 20/25 plays were the running back will get the ball . I rather not waste those plays with a average to below average back I rather give it to someone that’s gonna command attention and make the defense pay. No matter what defenses will keep playing the Bills pretty much the same with light boxes if they want to go heavy then Allen and co will eat them alive. It’s a pick your poison predicament that we haven’t seen in this offense yet and I believe it’s what can get us over the hump in the playoffs. NTM we play in Buffalo we just witnessed this team not be able to handle there environment that they play in . Other then the poor gameplan we had vs Cinny I believe the weather beat us more then the Bengals did. The Bengals took our souls from us by pounding us into the ground in that game with Mixon that’s exactly what we are missing and that’s exactly what we need to get. 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Dane Brugler has 11 WRs in his top 100... just noting.

 

JSN #1 (number 18 overall) to Trey Palmer (number 95 overall)

[LABILLBACKER]

On 4/18/2023 at 3:12 PM, starrymessenger said:

The class lacks any alpha studs at the WR position but that doesn't necessarily mean that the class is bad, as many have said. It's actually quite deep and I expect that some good wideouts will come out of this draft. A guy like Mims, who has been projected in the 3rd is pretty much very close in terms of value to the guys who are touted for the 1st. To me Mims is way more desirable than a guy like Hyatt. If you insist on a big body then maybe Tillman would be a good get in the 3rd. If players like that drop out of the 3rd you should jump on them. And there are a number of interesting projects who will go backend of the draft or undrafted. 

I'd absolutely love Mims, Tillman or Mingo in the 3rd but I have a sneaky suspicion we'll be using 91 on Dhop.  

[starrymessenger]

1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'd absolutely love Mims, Tillman or Mingo in the 3rd but I have a sneaky suspicion we'll be using 91 on Dhop.  

Could be. I see the Bills as a good fit and landing spot for DHop. I think there's a good chance it happens. Better here than in KC where he immediately becomes their #1. I would anticipate great chemistry with PM. Don't know whether it's a smokescreen but I believe KC has said they are not in the running. 
If I thought we could land Mims in the third, I would take him in preference to Addison, who I also like, and use the first two picks elsewhere than WR. In terms of value I don't see these two as far apart, not that they are by any means the same player. Mims is already bigger/taller and the thinking is that he can easily add 10-15 pounds without losing speed or quickness, so circa 195 lbs at 5'10 +. Thats maybe not an X but not out of line for a pro Z receiver. Mims is fast (4.38), faster than Addison. He's also a dawg as far as competitiveness is concerned. A football player. Addison is properly graded ahead of Mims because he's very good - is a much better and more refined route runner and more likely to add impact sooner. Mims, Tillman, Mingo - they all have very promising traits but they need to be coached up. 

[Big Blitz]